Sentiment & Market Indicators, 9/3/25

Comments

• a2z

  September 4

  
  new indicator for pure speculation\hype\garbage :
  
  https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/measuring-fomo
• bee

  September 5

  Then there is this market topping signal that works sometimes:
  
  from the linked article:

  Quietness in the stock market is a sign of a topping condition for prices. This phenomenon works this way because after an uptrend, people feel more confident, everyone is feeling fine, there are no perceived problems, and no need to get aggressive or ambitious with one’s trading. So price and breadth data show that quietness. But after a decline, people get more panicky, and that shows up with louder breadth numbers.
  This week's chart shows an indicator which is a derivative of the McClellan Oscillator which my parents created back in 1969. The indicator looks at the Oscillator's values over the preceding 15 trading days, to see what the total range of values is. High readings mean that the Oscillator has been moving a lot, which reflects a more violent condition in the breadth numbers associated with a bottoming condition. But low readings like the one we see right now means everything is calm, which can be a topping condition.

  ... emphasis on "can be"!
  
  narrow_range_of_mcclellan
• davidrmoran

  September 8

  Here’s another
  
  https://x.com/freightalley/status/1964809073251270977?s=46&t=eFdV3_Ee_q0dJcUiWgzIfA
• yugo

  September 8

  bee said:

  Then there is this market topping signal that works sometimes:
  
  from the linked article:
  

  High readings mean that the Oscillator has been moving a lot, which reflects a more violent condition in the breadth numbers associated with a bottoming condition. But low readings like the one we see right now means everything is calm, which can be a topping condition.

  Thanks for sharing.
  
  I read it a bit differently from the explanation provided by the author. From the chart provided, it seems like McClellan Oscillator is a good 'topping indicator' when it shows "abnormal" behavior, i.e.: during ~ summer markets generally slows down - so relatively 'calm' conditions are normal while 'violent' conditions are abnormal and predictive of topping. The reverse logic - in line with what is described by the author - works during other seasons.
  
  If interpreted this way, the indicator seems to gain fair bit more predictive power - including explaining one of the "did not mark" price tops and providing closer marks on a couple of additional ones without losing any of those shown. (It would also suggest that current relatively low readings are not a topping signal.)
  
• yogibearbull

  September 8 edited September 8

  I have been tracking AAII Sentiment for a very long time - elsewhere before here. But that's only 1 indicator of many, & in recent years, it has been sending negative signals while some other indicators were just the opposite.
  
  Some also differentiate between sentiment & market indicators. I interpret the data more broadly as market sentiment or temperature.
  
  So, I have been tweaking the data & contents of these postings. A big change happened on/after 8/20/25 when the title was changed & an additional Fear & Greed indicator was added. AAII Sentiment is still featured prominently & there is still 6-wks of recent data (AAII website has lifetime history).
  
  I am open to further tweaking but there are additional considerations: (i) the indicator data should be accessible to me for free by Wednesday-PM or Thursday-AM, (ii) it not be survey based (as AAII Sentiment already is), but market data based.
• hank

  September 8 edited September 8

  WSJ has a front page story today about lumber prices falling through the floor - so to speak. Lumber mills are shutting down or cutting back hours of operation. The Journal notes that normally that’s an indicator of a sharply slowing economy. Also - There was a story on multiple press sites, including Bloomberg, a week ago that (according to Scott Bessent) Trump is considering ”declaring a housing emergency”.
  
  On the housing issue, I’m wondering if they’re thinking of some form of YCC (yield curve control) should longer-term rates spike higher after they coerce the Fed into cutting short term. YCC’s likely to be as effective as Nixon’s ‘70s ”wage & price freeze”. But it might bring down mortgage rates long enough to get them through the mid-terms which appears to be their overarching goal. A second way they might artificially lower long-term rates is to take control of the Fed (looking quite certain) and amp-up purchases of longer dated bonds (quantitive easing).
  
  It seems clear the economy is contracting. But those in power will pull every lever known to man to forestall recession. We’ll see how that plays out.
• larryB

  September 8

  @Hank. With this crew at the helm, what could possibly go wrong? I shudder to think about all the ways they will foul things up. No brain, no plan, no patience. My question is how to invest in a n environment of total uncertainty?