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US misses out on billions of dollars of China soybean sales midway through peak season

For those investors in agriculture future market, this tariffs war is hitting home.
The U.S. normally ships most of its soybeans to China between September and January, before Brazil's harvest hits the market, but Chinese buyers have yet to book any U.S. cargoes for the new crop year, according to traders tracking shipments.
In 2024, China bought roughly 20% of its soybeans from the U.S., down from 41% in 2016, the customs data shows. From January-July 2025, China imported 42.26 million tons from Brazil, while shipments from the U.S. totalled 16.57 million tons.

The prolonged absence of Chinese buying is expected to weigh further on benchmark Chicago soybean futures , already hovering near five-year lows.

U.S. soybeans are about 80 to 90 cents a bushel cheaper than Brazilian soybeans for September-October shipment, but China's 23% tariff on U.S. shipments adds $2 a bushel to the cost for importers, traders said.
US misses out on billions of dollars of China soybean sales midway through peak season

These farmers are asking the government for subsidy to support their loss. Isn’t that socialism?

Comments

  • Well, the government is directly responsible for the farmer's situation, so it seems more like total stupidity than socialism.
  • The Orange regime:
    (Wiki:)
    "The Wreck of the Hesperus" is a narrative poem by American poet Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, first published in Ballads and Other Poems in 1842.[1] It is a story that presents the tragic consequences of a skipper's pride. On an ill-fated voyage in winter, he brings his daughter aboard ship for company. The skipper ignores the advice of one of his experienced men, who fears that a hurricane is approaching. When the storm arrives, the skipper ties his daughter to the mast to prevent her from being swept overboard. She calls out to her dying father as she hears the surf beating on the shore, then prays to Christ to calm the seas. The ship crashes onto the reef of Norman's Woe and sinks; the next morning a horrified fisherman finds the daughter's body, still tied to the mast and drifting in the surf. The poem ends with a prayer that all be spared such a fate "on the reef of Norman's Woe."
  • Capitalism has always included socialistic programs in order to thrive and support our class system. Farmer subsidies (for hail, drought, infestations, lack of demand, etc), welfare/food stamp programs, FEMA disbursements, Food Banks, Social Security, and (arguably) Religious-based tax exemptions, are all examples of socialistic policies supported under capitalism.

    Within that construct lies a notable hypocrisy permeating conservative politics. For example, here in Colorado, 100% of the farmers/ranchers depend on government subsidies to weather the variety of storms that affect crops and livestock, and yet, 80-90% of them vote for dark red nonsense politicians (like Boebert) who continually decry socialism within our society. Go figure.

    I'll never understand how this hypocrisy is allowed to continue and be exploited during election season. There should be a tipping point soon.

    The article brings up a good point regarding how the new tariffs are promulgating this issue. The current administration claims huge profits from tariffs (which are indirect taxes on the American consumer) and yet they most likely will be forced to distribute massive farmer subsidies as a result of this singular and unnecessary tariff war. Imho, international economic policy should be a prudent escalation/equivalence of tariffs over several years, not a tidal wave of bullying over a few months. 2026 will be an interesting/daunting year.
  • A related problem is corn. US corn exports are down. Commerce Secy Lutnick has been in the news saying that India has so many people but it doesn't buy a single bushel of corn from the US. But the problem is that corn consumption in India is not as high as for wheat and India produces more than enough corn for its needs, even exports some corn.

    US ag industry has been hurt by tariffs and counter tariffs. US farmers are in panic mode. They already have higher fertilizer, equipment and labor costs, and now their production cannot be exported as usual.

    Another news item item I saw was the some countries have suddenly slashed the declared values at US Customs to 33-50% and the US Customs staff are clueless. Just do the math - there may be 50% tariff on, say, old X, but if the declared new value is only 0.33X, the duty is 0.33*0.50X, or 0.165X, NOT 0.50X. Of course, slashing the declared values at Customs doesn't change the US retail price at all.
  • Time for farmers to start raising more cattle! They have the feed! Appears the magic 8 ball wasn't observed.
    Where's the BEEF, Derf
  • Original link appears to be link back to this page. Here's a link to the quoted story:

    Reuters story. Via AgWeek (subscription not required) using Facebook referral link (so disabling ad blocker not required)

    Regarding corn, from the NYTimes (subscription typically rqd):
    At Arthur Companies, which operates large grain elevators in North Dakota, Kevin Karel is working quickly to build more temporary storage to hold up to seven million bushels of soybeans that will sit on asphalt pads and be protected by tarps.

    He also expects to accelerate exporting corn to other countries to make more storage space for soybeans.
    Not to worry about the farmers, they're in good hands. Mr. Bessent is in charge of negotiations, and he's strongly motivated to get the farmers a good "framework" of a deal.
    The Treasury Secretary owns thousands of acres of North Dakota farmland, worth up to $25 million. The properties grow soybeans and corn in a state that exports most of its agricultural products to China.
    ...
    The Office of Government Ethics said last month that Mr. Bessent failed to fully comply with an agreement that required him to divest his financial assets. ... After receiving the warning, Mr. Bessent pledged to fully comply with his ethics agreement by Dec. 15.
    NYTimes, Sept 15.
    Well, motivated perhaps, but not in a hurry.
    :
  • msf said:



    ...
    The Office of Government Ethics said last month that Mr. Bessent failed to fully comply with an agreement that required him to divest his financial assets. ... After receiving the warning, Mr. Bessent pledged to fully comply with his ethics agreement by Dec. 15.
    Following his master's lead on "how to profit from nonsense," Mr. Bessent will probably accept a subsidy AND claim a tax loss for his lost revenue while "selling" the land to a family trust...Or maybe he'll declare bankruptcy, with Deutsche Bank arranging the subsequent financing.
  • Or, Bessent may be scooping temporarily depressed farmland. He didn't become billionaire by just doing ordinary things.
  • The trading policy has now changed everything. So watch for the shift as Latin American countries and Africa are becoming significant competitors to the US. For example, Brazil will now fill majority of China’s annual order. The tariffs only hastens the changes.

    The other risk is that China’s Belt and Road Initiative is to grow their own trading partners for many products and technological advances (semiconductors, batteries, and EVs). We are no longer in Kansas anymore…
    https://seafarerfunds.com/commentary/one-belt-one-road-many-motives/
  • @peak2climb. @yogibearbull. Ah,, the massive and omnipresent corruption from the regime. With all the other messes it really doesn’t get enough attention. Of course with the watchdogs fired and the press muzzled , how could it?
  • edited 10:43AM
    This must be one of those hidden dark government things where, as the price of beef or meat in general skyrockets, soy becomes overproduced and cheap. So when the CPI is calculated with substitutions masking price increases, soy replacement for beef is a huge winner as beef goes up and up and up and tariffed WAGYU becomes competitive with Choice, newly at WAGYU prices due to shortage. But CPI, magically, is down and working class wages are held low.
  • edited 10:56AM
    I've heard that rotting soybeans are a pretty horrible odor. Isn't building new grain elevators to house them, a lot like putting a deceased relative's nasty old furniture into storage?

    Still, the numbers tell the story. Once you add the cost of tariffs, our soybeans are no longer competitive. And that is at only a 23% tariff rate to China. And ignoring the politics/negotiating angle.

    It seems we have "re-shored" our soybean crops. America First!
  • edited 11:02AM

    A related problem is corn....

    US ag industry has been hurt by tariffs and counter tariffs. US farmers are in panic mode. They already have higher fertilizer, equipment and labor costs, and now their production cannot be exported as usual.

    Another news item item I saw was the some countries have suddenly slashed the declared values at US Customs to 33-50% and the US Customs staff are clueless. Just do the math - there may be 50% tariff on, say, old X, but if the declared new value is only 0.33X, the duty is 0.33*0.50X, or 0.165X, NOT 0.50X. Of course, slashing the declared values at Customs doesn't change the US retail price at all.

    And who is the biggest hater of ethanol in fuel? Conservatives, because it smells of "liberal values". Will ethanol mandates be next to go?

    Math? Not a problem. "The uneducated" don't do math.

  • And who is the biggest hater of ethanol in fuel? Conservatives, because it smells of "liberal values". Will ethanol mandates be next to go?

    Nah. Often the pocketbook wins over loathing. Just a month ago ...
    Grassley, Ernst, Klobuchar Introduce Legislation to Expand Consumer Access to Homegrown Biofuels

    Math? Not a problem. "The uneducated" don't do math.

    Unfortunately basic mathematical concepts are not only not understood by most people regardless of education level, but math is actively avoided. Here's the trailer from an excellent documentary on both the problem and approaches to improving comprehension. There are very few screenings, but if there's one near you it is worth catching. I was fortunate enough to see it at the National Museum of Mathematics when it hosted the movie creators.

  • @msf, well said.
  • msf said:



    Unfortunately basic mathematical concepts are not only not understood by most people regardless of education level, but math is actively avoided. Here's the trailer from an excellent documentary on both the problem and approaches to improving comprehension.

    It seems like the film world has finally decided to adapt one of my favorite nonfiction books, Innumeracy, by John Allen Paulos, written in 1988 (!). The book, and this interesting celluloid extension, is an excellent analysis of the consequences of mathematical ignorance and/or denial.

    But it's not just math ed that is the issue. Data sources and statistical viewpoints are regularly camouflaged by the media and public figures, usually for their own benefit. Polls done yesterday and today may not represent the bias of tomorrow.

    Thx for the reference.
  • LOL - Yes, I know that the hypocrites will follow the money. Pardon my sarcasm, if it wasn't obvious.

    To your second point, no kidding. Most people need a calculator to figure a 20% tip on a $10 restaurant charge. And wouldn't recognize if hey hit the wrong key and got an incorrect answer.

    I appreciate the share.

  • All agriculture products have limited shelf lives. That is why purchase contracts are set in place long before the harvest season. Not have the orders filled for the year is a mess. The numbers reveal the problem which about to take place.

    The other problem is meat products.
  • edited 1:22PM
    Anna said:

    This must be one of those hidden dark government things where, as the price of beef or meat in general skyrockets, soy becomes overproduced and cheap. So when the CPI is calculated with substitutions masking price increases, soy replacement for beef is a huge winner as beef goes up and up and up and tariffed WAGYU becomes competitive with Choice, newly at WAGYU prices due to shortage. But CPI, magically, is down and working class wages are held low.

    My assumption is that an unintended (positive) consequence of increasing manufacturing and deporting low-wage workers is going to be an increase in wages at the low end, perhaps the middle too. Particularly in our chronic tight labor situation.

    Our population replacement rate is too low to keep up with our labor needs, and immigration was filling that gap, just barely.

    Those who are looking to automation and AI for productivity gains are hopefully correct.

    I do agree that using CPI as a gauge for wage increases can be quite sketchy.

  • "The other problem is meat products." - @Sven, don't forget coffee (and tequila)
  • Have Tofu? Don't need meat. Workers can live on soy. Been proven. How are those new starts in Cell Cultured Meats coming? Probaby could robotisize most of it.
  • Re: Math

    Before you argue with people online, I’d like to reraise the fact that the A&W 1/3 pound burger failed because people thought that, for just a little bit more cash, they could get the bigger McDonald’s 1/4pounder.
  • I switched to tea since coffee bean has went up 50%. It is a lot more than the climate alone. Luckily i don’t drink alcohols. We are all impacted one way ir the other.
  • Mark said:

    Re: Math

    Before you argue with people online, I’d like to reraise the fact that the A&W 1/3 pound burger failed because people thought that, for just a little bit more cash, they could get the bigger McDonald’s 1/4pounder.

    Good point, and more's the pity.
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