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So How Will The Strikes On Venezuela Affect Markets?
Canada is the big loser. Their heavy oil will be displaced by cheap Venezuelan oil.
That is an interesting point. Which could actually drive the price of gasoline in the Midwest up. Canadian oil is cheap there because it can be trucked directly in. Oil that comes from the gulf, would be more expensive due to transportation expenses.
Canada is the big loser. Their heavy oil will be displaced by cheap Venezuelan oil.
That presumes Donnie's plans ever come to fruition. It's interesting how quiet Chevron and the other US majors have been thus far...you'd think if they were 'given' a country to rape and pillage they'd be issuing statements left and right outlining their preliminary plans. So far, from what I can tell, only CVX has issued a lukewarm "we'll follow the law" statement.
As with the 'drill baby drill' nonsense in the US, the oil cartels like oil at a certain price and won't just produce more because they can. Suddenly flooding the market with cheap oil may not always be in *their* best interests, and their interests always come first.
Right, why produce at low margins, or even at a loss? And let us recall that everyone thought that we hit the jackpot when we invaded Iraq. The reality was not so rosy.
Right. a huge investment in the Ven. oilpatch is not merely to be presumed as if it were an automatic next step. Those big fossil fuel companies are first and foremost capitalists. A resurgence in the Ven oil industry is no more to be expected than that tariffs will automatically serve to repatriate U.S. manufacturing jobs.
The strike and removal of Maduro and wife only further cements the Orange regime as a loose cannon which needs to be avoided and given a wide berth. Other countries will be telling themselves that this is just one more lawless, nutso, freewheeling adventure by uncle Orange.
The worldwide reputation of the USA will be in the toilet for generations. Bretton Woods is dead. Ethics is dead. "Greed is good." (Gordon Gecko.)
Phil Gramm (R-TX, retired, maybe dead) and his ilk turned up the heat and the speed in the direction of deregulation everywhere. But both major Parties are complicit in the Wild West financial nonsense we've had to deal with. Boom, bust. CDOs, GFC, tax breaks for the wealthiest. (Clinton, Greenspan, Rubin, Bernanke, Geitner, et alia. Post-Crash Obama reforms were anemic.) Meanwhile the ordinary "Joe" is taking it in the shorts.
Venezuela? I'd bet most regular folks don't give the whole business much thought. As is already obvious, U.S. news outlets on tv focus inordinately upon the local and the parochial. I don't need to spell-out my oft-repeated Churchill quotation about the uninformed and under-informed "average voter." They are everywhere, wherever you turn! How else did Orange get elected TWICE?
1) immediate loser is China as they get most of VZ oil, in payment for all the money they have lent VZ. Trump now controls the price, although with the maybe temporary supply excess there may not be able to crank prices up much. But this was probably done to hit China's monopoly on rare earths
2) LT this is a sig net positive for China. The US has now demonstrated it is easy to remove a foreign government that you do not like. China can use this as justification and "legal" cover to hit Taiwan. Bloomberg already has information that many Chinese Weibo posters see it exactly like this.
3) Key is will the Maduro die hards be willing to die to support their current goodies and incomes him and launch Guerilla war. This probably depends on how successfully Trump has managed to buy off the big players.
Venezuela oil is about 5% of China's sources. Easily replaceable and useless as a tool to pressure China on silver. The bigger message to China is to bugger off from the Western hemisphere and in general be aware that US can nuke any close relationship that China has built especially around Belt and Road.
Wouldn't shock me if US does something similar in Africa to really drive the point home.
Venezuela oil is about 5% of China's sources. Easily replaceable and useless as a tool to pressure China on silver. The bigger message to China is to bugger off from the Western hemisphere and in general be aware that US can nuke any close relationship that China has built especially around Belt and Road.
Wouldn't shock me if US does something similar in Africa to really drive the point home.
It would be pretty neat if Putin was a little rattled by the thought that Maduro's capture was just a trial run, even if there never was any intent by Donny to follow through.
Comments
The worldwide reputation of the USA will be in the toilet for generations. Bretton Woods is dead. Ethics is dead. "Greed is good." (Gordon Gecko.)
Phil Gramm (R-TX, retired, maybe dead) and his ilk turned up the heat and the speed in the direction of deregulation everywhere. But both major Parties are complicit in the Wild West financial nonsense we've had to deal with. Boom, bust. CDOs, GFC, tax breaks for the wealthiest. (Clinton, Greenspan, Rubin, Bernanke, Geitner, et alia. Post-Crash Obama reforms were anemic.) Meanwhile the ordinary "Joe" is taking it in the shorts.
Venezuela? I'd bet most regular folks don't give the whole business much thought. As is already obvious, U.S. news outlets on tv focus inordinately upon the local and the parochial. I don't need to spell-out my oft-repeated Churchill quotation about the uninformed and under-informed "average voter." They are everywhere, wherever you turn! How else did Orange get elected TWICE?
Looking at you, Canada.... Please, please...pretty please...
1) immediate loser is China as they get most of VZ oil, in payment for all the money they have lent VZ. Trump now controls the price, although with the maybe temporary supply excess there may not be able to crank prices up much. But this was probably done to hit China's monopoly on rare earths
2) LT this is a sig net positive for China. The US has now demonstrated it is easy to remove a foreign government that you do not like. China can use this as justification and "legal" cover to hit Taiwan. Bloomberg already has information that many Chinese Weibo posters see it exactly like this.
3) Key is will the Maduro die hards be willing to die to support their current goodies and incomes him and launch Guerilla war. This probably depends on how successfully Trump has managed to buy off the big players.
Let's see how much longer markets can dance the hustle.
Wouldn't shock me if US does something similar in Africa to really drive the point home.
Wouldn't shock me if US does something similar in Africa to really drive the point home.