"The bad news comes in two parts.
First, any hopes that this war might be extremely brief are fading. The Trump administration may have imagined that decapitating the Iranian government would bring swift regime change, but the Islamic State isn’t a government of mere thugs — yes, they’re evil thugs, but they’re also serious religious fanatics facing what for them is an existential threat, and their grip on power isn’t that easy to break. Furthermore, it’s painfully obvious that Trump and co. had no plan beyond bombing Iran, killing its current leaders, and hoping that something good would happen.
Second, war in the middle of the world’s most important oil-producing region — which is also a key source of liquefied natural gas — inevitably has major consequences for energy prices. Once upon a time US and Israeli air superiority might have contained Iran’s ability to harm its neighbors. But in an age in which even third-rate powers have the ability to launch missiles and drones, Iran has a huge stockpile of drones and also has ballistic missiles that are destructive, hard to intercept, and have a 1200 mile range.
The U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia has been hit by two drone strikes. Airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha and the U.S. consulate in Dubai have also been hit.
U.S. officials have urged all Americans in the region to leave, but they did so after almost all flights had been canceled. Only now are they saying that they’re going to arrange flights on military aircraft and charter flights — an airlift that will have to be immense given that there are surely tens of thousands of Americans currently stranded. Did I mention that Trump and co. clearly went to war without a plan?"
Paul Krugman
Comments
"it’s painfully obvious that Trump and co. had no plan beyond bombing Iran, killing its current leaders, and hoping that something good would happen."
That pretty much nails it!
I'd assume that we cannot walk away, as trump would prefer at this point, because Iran will then be free to continue launching missiles/drone/terror with no push back.
They will only walk away if Benji says they can.
Clearly there was no actual objective or risk/reward analysis done. Now they are being forced to back down to the markets reaction, energy problem and running out of Patriot and THAD resources.
Does Iran stop launching drones and threatening the Straits? Why not turn the screws and keep depleting protective missile reserves? Has the fat man opened Pandoras box?
Randy Newman:
https://genius.com/Randy-newman-you-cant-fool-the-fat-man-lyrics
- the drop of oil\barrel down to $90 was one of the greatest one day movements by any dotus ever.
now if we can only get those affordable houses and cars he promised.
- for the first time ever, the distraction from pedophile to war criminal for schoolkids murdered is considered...
tada!
a moral upgrade !
We are talking about oil futures here, right? That could go back up just as quick, if the reality is that Iran keeps disrupting the oil supply.
• We reengage in retaliation?
• We tell our major NATO ally that they're on their own?
Stay tuned for the next thrilling chapter of... DOOFUS STARTS A MIDEAST WAR!
That would be on-brand.
"Stock futures fall as traders weigh Trump’s signal that Iran war may soon end" - Translation: It took the markets about 6 hours to realize trump's words are meaningless.
"It has become clear that Trump had no plan in Iran other than to strike it, knock out the leaders he didn’t like, and hope the Iranian people would rise up and put in place new leaders he could deal with. It was supposed to look like what happened in Venezuela in January, when U.S. forces launched a surprise military strike that enabled them to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, leaving in his place the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, who promises to work with Trump and has given him access to the country’s oil resources.
Andrew Egger of The Bulwark explains that the Trump administration didn’t bother to have a theory for why the U.S. was going to war with Iran, or to explain to the American people why such a war would be a good thing, because they didn’t think there was going to be a war, just a fast, hard strike that would enable the U.S. to put a new Iranian leader in place.
But the initial Israeli strikes killed most of the people the administration hoped would replace 86-year-old hardline ayatollah Ali Khamenei as supreme leader, and yesterday Iran proclaimed as his successor Khamenei’s 56-year-old son Mojtaba Khamenei despite Trump’s statement that “Khamenei’s son is unacceptable to me.” Mojtaba Khamenei is thought to be even more extreme a hardliner than his father.
Wall Street Journal national security reporter Alex Ward reported today that according to current and former U.S. officials, “President Trump has told aides he would back the killing of new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei if he proves unwilling to cede to U.S. demands, such as ending Iran’s nuclear development.”
This morning, Joe Wallace, Summer Said, Rebecca Feng, and Georgi Kantchev of the Wall Street Journal wrote an article titled “The Long-Feared Persian Gulf Oil Squeeze Is Upon Us,” warning that the stoppage of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has set off “the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s and [is] threatening the global economy.” Ships move not only oil but also fertilizer used for crops around the globe through that strait.
On March 3, Trump offered government insurance for shipping and floated the possibility of Navy escorts for ships in the strait, but that has not been enough to restore voyages. So this morning, on the Fox News Channel, Brian Kilmeade, who cheered on Trump’s attack on Iran from the television studio, told the captains of oil tankers they must simply conquer their fear and start up. “If you want to diminish the Iranian threat, if you want to make sure this ends up with complete Iran capitulation,” he said, “show some guts and go through that Strait, and do it.”
The spreading war in the Middle East threatens the ties between the region and the U.S. that Trump has pushed since taking office. As Eliot Brown, Georgi Kantchev, and Lauren Thomas of the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, the richest countries in the Persian Gulf last year tried to strengthen ties with Trump by pledging billions of dollars of investment into the U.S. Now they are having second thoughts. A prominent Dubai businessman posted at Trump on social media: “Who gave you the authority to drag our region into a war?” Trump had placed the Gulf states “at the heart of a danger they did not choose,” he wrote.
On Saturday, Vivienne Walt of the New York Times warned that such investments have gone both ways, with U.S. tech giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Oracle investing in large-scale facilities across the Middle East with an eye to making the region a global center for AI. Now they are questioning the security of such investments."
It astounds me that none of these geniuses saw this coming. There's your TDS right there. And only the leadership Spain has the guts to say "Hell no!"
He actually owns two pairs of Sperry Topsiders—tan and dark brown.
They are often used while cruising Long Island Sound with numerous Republican "dignitaries."