Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Did anyone join the dippers today? It doesn't look like it to me. I'm still thinking take the long way around with oil tankers. It's like a big puddle of water. When you're a kid you wade through it & pay the price , wet feet & a whipping. Adults, most, go around.
I see the current situation as one step forward, two steps backwards.
I am content to wait for a better entry point. I already lowered my equity allocation another 10% in the last two weeks. Lots of dry powder. I might drop another 5-10%, if I see the right opportunity.
Still down from my high by just -2.21%. No fun, but no panic here. 52 stocks, 46 bonds, 2 cash.
A dividend arrived today, too. Uncle Scotty at Treasury (?????) says US warships will escort traffic through Hormuz. Radar and sonar ought to do the trick, I guess. But now the US will have entered the long-term quagmire. The Iranians will just keep on keepin' on, keeping escort service necessary. Maritime insurance will stay at nosebleed levels. Orange Child didn't think about THAT, did he??? ET jumped up yesterday after a rating upgrade. Down -1% today. So, oil/natgas or LNG had nothing to do with yesterday's leap. ... SWVXX down to 3.48% yield.
Pam Bondi's DOW is down under 46.7K. We were all supposed to be talking about it at 50K. What is the next stop on this market train?
Oil near $100/barrel seems to be a worse fate than tariffs, for which US consumers ended up getting dinged.
Maybe it's the one-two punch (tariffs + oil price disaster) that was needed to flip the script and tame the bull market. Sometimes it takes a village, and sometimes it just takes 1 idiot.
"...and sometimes it just takes 1 idiot." Trump: "When oil prices go up, we make a lotta money!" Does anybody, anywhere, think he should be taken seriously, still?!
My guess has been that Trump and the Ayatollahs can remain irrational longer than my IRA can stay healthy. I'm hoping NRDCX and FGUSX can stay in the green. But I won't hesitate to sell.
My guess has been that Trump and the Ayatollahs can remain irrational longer than my IRA can stay healthy. I'm hoping NRDCX and FGUSX can stay in the green. But I won't hesitate to sell.
Congrats, you have lots of patient. I am afraid this nightmare is not ending soon.
My guess has been that Trump and the Ayatollahs can remain irrational longer than my IRA can stay healthy. I'm hoping NRDCX and FGUSX can stay in the green. But I won't hesitate to sell.
Congrats, you have lots of patient. I am afraid this nightmare is not ending soon.
Sold NRDCX. There was a lot less of a green cushion. If FGUSX drops to the price I bought it at last August I'll be out of that too.
I noticed this comment in otherwise boring coverage of the latest spiel coming out of Pistol Pete--so no link.
“Above all, we are struck by the fact that a number of Washington-based security analysts seem to be working with longer-duration timelines than market participants residing outside the Beltway,” RBS’ Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy and MENA research, wrote.
This market participant agrees. Seems to me there are a lot of folks that aren't paying much attention to the Iranian side of the situation.
I was at ~64% equity, 25% bond (CEF/OEF) & 11% cash (MMF/TBUX) until a couple weeks ago. Now I am at 52% equity, 35% bond, 13% cash.
I have weathered previous downturns at levels between 75-90% equities. I never felt over-stressed. Today, I feel well-positioned. If I take into consideration the soon-to-be cash distribution of my pension, the equity allocation is more like 48%.
At today's close I will be 38% equity, 12% bond, 50% cash. Fighting weight!
We have had two quarters in a row of lackluster GDP (1.4% and now 0.7%). Core PCE is now 3.1%, and "also predates the Feb. 28 attacks that the U.S. and Israel launched against Iran. Energy prices have surged in the nearly two weeks since the conflict began, with the Brent crude international benchmark touching $100 a barrel Thursday."
It isn't just the Iran war, though that was certainly a catalyst. GDP, jobs, inflation were all faring poorly, before this war.
The drama builds (da-dum!) as the S&P is dropping toward its 200 day moving average again. It held up in the test on the 9th, but look out below if it fails this time.
Glad to be at zero equity, with just one more shaky "nontraditional" bond holding yet to sell.
P.S. The S&P might be holding in the 6630s, like it did on the 9th.
Some similarities and differences with 1970's stagflation.
•Fears of higher prices and slower economic growth have unsettled markets over the past week following a spike in the oil price.
•Investors fear the specter of stagflation and what it could mean for their portfolios, but 2026 looks different to the 1970s for several reasons.
•Back then, a spike in oil prices led to spectacular gold gains fueled by a weaker dollar, but this is yet to happen.
'“This is not the 1970s, but it may be the beginning of something comparably significant,” he wrote in a recent note.'
″[It could mean] a sustained regime shift from paper assets to hard assets, and a long overdue repricing of the physical economy that underpins everything else.”
″[It could mean] a sustained regime shift from paper assets to hard assets, and a long overdue repricing of the physical economy that underpins everything else.”
There has been recent discussion regarding pivoting to so-called 'HALO' stocks.
I have been adding to these for a few months, without knowing what they were "called". Most of my current buy list is in such names. DVN, TSM, CLX, BMY, BKR, PG, JNJ, EMR, RTX, LMT, HAL, EXC... Waiting for now.
As of this Friday morning I believe Mr. Market was in the green mode, +.4 to .5 % up? Was I dreaming or just selling going on to drive it down as of the afternoon? Try to have a nice weekend. Relax if you can.
I have been adding to these for a few months, without knowing what they were "called". Most of my current buy list is in such names. DVN, TSM, CLX, BMY, BKR, PG, JNJ, EMR, LMT, HAL...
AKA value.
My only Trump trades after the election were to buy PAVE and AIRR for the taxable. I thought re-shoring was going to be a thing anyway. I am also looking at FFGIX for the taxable and the IRA. It seem more stable than trying to buy commodities directly, or through the various fund strategies with derivatives and/or futures.
@WABAC I admit that I thought there would be more re-shoring too. Though I did nothing to act on that view. It turns out that a myriad of ever changing threats, do not a policy make. And, I presume, that actual re-shoring needs a stable economic background, years of planning and some degree of certainty!
As of this Friday morning I believe Mr. Market was in the green mode, +.4 to .5 % up? Was I dreaming or just selling going on to drive it down as of the afternoon? Try to have a nice weekend. Relax if you can.
That may have been before the inflation print was published.
Everybody knows that the dice are loaded Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed Everybody knows the war is over Everybody knows the good guys lost Everybody knows the fight was fixed The poor stay poor, the rich get rich That's how it goes Everybody knows
Comments
I am content to wait for a better entry point. I already lowered my equity allocation another 10% in the last two weeks. Lots of dry powder. I might drop another 5-10%, if I see the right opportunity.
A dividend arrived today, too. Uncle Scotty at Treasury (?????) says US warships will escort traffic through Hormuz. Radar and sonar ought to do the trick, I guess. But now the US will have entered the long-term quagmire. The Iranians will just keep on keepin' on, keeping escort service necessary. Maritime insurance will stay at nosebleed levels. Orange Child didn't think about THAT, did he??? ET jumped up yesterday after a rating upgrade. Down -1% today. So, oil/natgas or LNG had nothing to do with yesterday's leap. ... SWVXX down to 3.48% yield.
Oil near $100/barrel seems to be a worse fate than tariffs, for which US consumers ended up getting dinged.
Maybe it's the one-two punch (tariffs + oil price disaster) that was needed to flip the script and tame the bull market. Sometimes it takes a village, and sometimes it just takes 1 idiot.
Trump: "When oil prices go up, we make a lotta money!"
Does anybody, anywhere, think he should be taken seriously, still?!
My guess has been that Trump and the Ayatollahs can remain irrational longer than my IRA can stay healthy. I'm hoping NRDCX and FGUSX can stay in the green. But I won't hesitate to sell.
I have weathered previous downturns at levels between 75-90% equities. I never felt over-stressed. Today, I feel well-positioned. If I take into consideration the soon-to-be cash distribution of my pension, the equity allocation is more like 48%.
At today's close I will be 38% equity, 12% bond, 50% cash. Fighting weight!
We have had two quarters in a row of lackluster GDP (1.4% and now 0.7%). Core PCE is now 3.1%, and "also predates the Feb. 28 attacks that the U.S. and Israel launched against Iran. Energy prices have surged in the nearly two weeks since the conflict began, with the Brent crude international benchmark touching $100 a barrel Thursday."
It isn't just the Iran war, though that was certainly a catalyst. GDP, jobs, inflation were all faring poorly, before this war.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5776874-us-iran-conflict-months/
Cash is king for now. Ain't buying no damn dips. Inflation, jobs, tariffs, poor leadership, etc. all flashing red.
Not feeling warm and fuzzy. This might be a small correction or it might turn out to be a death roll.
Glad to be at zero equity, with just one more shaky "nontraditional" bond holding yet to sell.
P.S. The S&P might be holding in the 6630s, like it did on the 9th.
Some similarities and differences with 1970's stagflation.
•Fears of higher prices and slower economic growth have unsettled markets over the past week following a spike in the oil price.
•Investors fear the specter of stagflation and what it could mean for their portfolios, but 2026 looks different to the 1970s for several reasons.
•Back then, a spike in oil prices led to spectacular gold gains fueled by a weaker dollar, but this is yet to happen.
'“This is not the 1970s, but it may be the beginning of something comparably significant,” he wrote in a recent note.'
″[It could mean] a sustained regime shift from paper assets to hard assets, and a long overdue repricing of the physical economy that underpins everything else.”
Stagflation is an ugly, ugly word.
and a long overdue repricing of the physical economy that underpins everything else.”
There has been recent discussion regarding pivoting to so-called 'HALO' stocks.
HALO stocks are supposedly less vulnerable to disruption by AI.
Consumer staples, energy, industrials, materials, utilities...
I have been adding to these for a few months, without knowing what they were "called".
Most of my current buy list is in such names. DVN, TSM, CLX, BMY, BKR, PG, JNJ, EMR, RTX, LMT, HAL, EXC... Waiting for now.
Try to have a nice weekend. Relax if you can.
My only Trump trades after the election were to buy PAVE and AIRR for the taxable. I thought re-shoring was going to be a thing anyway. I am also looking at FFGIX for the taxable and the IRA. It seem more stable than trying to buy commodities directly, or through the various fund strategies with derivatives and/or futures.
100% cash. Have at it president Bozo. I couldn't care less.
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That's how it goes
Everybody knows
-Leonard Cohen-