Finviz futures as of 11pm, EST.
--- Asian markets ahead, + 1 thru +2%
---Futures
DJIA, SP500,Nasdaq,Russell 2000.....+.9% range
Gold and Silver.....+3% range
30 yr T..... +.9%
10 yr T..... +.7%
$US index..... -1.42%
Ten dart tosses would get one ahead for tomorrow, at this point in time,eh?
And folks from my age group thought drugs did funny things to one's head. Markets are surreal, too.
11 bells and all is well. Time to go to bed.
Regards,
Catch
Comments
Hear what you're saying Catch. One of those "risk-off" days where everything bounces. And, should note that the comparative market numbers I cited don't take into consideration dividends paid by equities over those 4.5 years. .... However, all-in-all, major markets seem to have been pretty mundane in recent months. and in some cases downright negative. Thanks for your late-nite update.
CNBC: "Egypt is not effecting oil, there's no oil in Egypt!" "Housing is not going to be effected by interest rates!" Etc etc....
I got cable again the other month (there was a deal, I figured I'd try it again) and regret it. 110 channels and nothin' on. CNBC has gotten SO much worse - it was always annoying, but some of the anchors who are now given a focus are freaking obnoxious.
No Bloomberg???
Have CNBC here, too; but have not viewed for a few years.
Regards,
Ted
Otherwise, yeah, you can't be sitting in cash.
People need to have the exposure to the market that is right for them, but I think you can't be sitting in cash and everyone likely has something (or something/s) that they believe is a theme going forward.
Absolutely. Opened minimum positions in BUFBX, PRBLX, and VVPSX today, and increased position in ACMVX... will add gradually as things march on. We don't depend on the portfolio for living expenses- so inflation protection is important but not critical. We're the last fortunate generation to have defined retirement and decent SS, and we get along just fine on that income, with a bit left over. As you know, I really appreciate your insights and the help which you have cheerfully provided over the years.
Thanks again- OJ
http://www.theonion.com/articles/drunken-ben-bernanke-tells-everyone-at-neighborhoo,21059/
ACMVX. That's a great fund indeed.
You noted: " Alot of the discussion here in recent days has been that the Fed doesn't really understand how their curtailment of QE will work & how it might affect the markets."
I do believe that Mr. Bernanke's comments from a few weeks ago; comments/words that were a bit different from previous comments got twisted around into other meanings; and that the markets along with everyone who watches received a taste of the "affect" from a FED unwind. 'Course there were numerous comments from other Fed. Reserve members to take the sting away. The sweet strawberry upon the whipped topping was from yesterday when Mr. Bernanke basically stated that one should forget about the previous comments. The new words of the week are: "Game On".
We investors will continue to take advantage of this newest event and keep our fingers crossed that a decent exit may find its place when other economy factors are in place enough to support the easy money exit.
Mr. Bernanke will not be at the pilot wheel of this massive money boat when a course change may be needed. I hope all here continue to be attentive to market actions; as it seems that investment periods going forward for the next several years will be as much; or more so, difficult to manage as has been in the past 5 years.
My summary is that the Fed. and the investment world has already had a taste of "affects", and only from words; not actions. Perhaps this was only a test. This thought has passed through my brain cells more than one time.
THIS IS ONLY A TEST
Take care of you and yours,
Catch
OJ and I ? Are ya look'in towards us for a market direction clue(s)?
Hell, our house can't even front-run itself regarding investments. 'Course this does not mean that our investments may indeed be a contra indicator as to where one's investments should be directed.
Pretty scary thought, eh?
OJ is out of town for the weekend; but will likely provide a better reply from the deepest depths of his fine wit.
Take care of you and yours,
Catch/Mark
FWIW I've been pretty much 85% + in equities since 2008-9. Stocks were at fire sale prices with dividends no bond fund or cash account could match or touch. I know it's not for everyone so I'm not preaching, just saying. If my SS could pay the bills I might think differently but I doubt it.
at end of 2010, spread was 9% Equity/43% Bond/48% Cash;
changed mix and caught spring bounce in 2011...
by July of 2011, spread was 31% Equity/33% Bond/36% Cash;
took some profits, and avoided some of equity drawdown in last half of 2011...
at end of 2011, spread was 24% Equity/39% Bond/38% Cash;
caught spring bounce in 2012, then reduced exposure again...
in July of 2012, spread was 19% Equity/33% Bond/49% Cash;
increased equities and decreased bonds gradually through summer and fall...
by end of 2012, spread was 32% Equity/25% Bond/43% Cash;
in early May 2012 was 38% Equity/17% Bond/45% Cash;
in late spring took profits and went to ground...
and now at 17% Equity/4% Bond/79% Cash.
Took the 8% ytd profits which were in addition to 12% from 2012 (close to 100k) in 2nd qtr. (That's 8 & 12% of the equity/bond "money at risk", not including the cash component.) Not too bad when bank savings rates are non-existent. No need to be greedy- that will cover most of the current house remodel. Remember that I'm talking an older investor here- wouldn't necessarily recommend this for younger folks. If I miss some of the froth this year that's OK- I'm sleeping really well. Also, we are not using income from the investment side for any living expenses- we get along fine on SS and pensions- so our requirements are probably not typical. As long as I can keep the investment pile growing better than inflation I'm happy.
II don't think that the equity side is terribly overpriced right now... if you factor in inflation it's kinda high but not really all that bad. I'm more worried about the Fed trying to unravel itself from the marketplace simultaneously with the change in Fed leadership coming up and the necessity to get that through our mentally unstable senate, to say nothing of the unpredictable reactions of this schizo market. Once I get a feel for the Fed situation I'll be easing back in.
Made decent money in bonds overall- started scaling down in middle of last year and got the rest out just in time. Have been pretty lucky in past couple of years avoiding equity downdrafts, but that was more luck than skill I'm sure.
Feel free to use me as a contrarian indicator. If I wuz you, that's probably what I'd do too.