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Open Thread: What Are You Buying/Selling/Pondering
I'm actually not finding much of interest. Kinda pondered BHP and adding to Amerisource Bergen (ABC) - becoming more and more comfortable with the latter as not only a "buy and hold", but practically a "buy and forget" - but not really in any rush to do either. Added to ALFA etf a little the other day.
Reply to @JoeNoEskimo: Yeah, I would sure like a pullback also. Looks like my concerns re the Fed "Taper"/Fed leadership change/govt shutdown/debt limit/lousy employment were unwarranted. If that combo didn't cause a 10% pullback I can't imagine what it will take, from an analytical perspective. That, unfortunately, leaves some sort of "black swan" event as the most likely driver of the next major pullback. Good grief!
Reply to @Old_Joe: I keep hearing "don't fight the Fed", and I guess we see why. It will have to be a really huge, catastrophic "black swan" to knock this market off its perch.
Reply to @JoeNoEskimo: That's what I'm afraid of too. Since no way are any traditional fundamentals driving this, it looks pretty vulnerable to an unanticipated event. Sort of like that big Italian cruise ship that wasn't being "driven" in any traditional fundamental way. Didn't do so well when it hit those rocks. Well, at least the captain survived. Unfortunate about the crew and passengers, though.
Reply to @Old_Joe: Any day just before the close the S&P 500 is down, I buy more SPY. My target for year end close for the S&P 500 is 1,826 which is just 67 points from today's close of 1759. Should make it with ease ! Regards, Ted
Reply to @Ted: Yes, I think that you're right on that. Evidently I was too pessimistic about getting through August/October without a major event. You were right- I should have closed my eyes and stayed the full course. We did make a pretty fair amount though, as we are still about 50% invested from our normal level. No complaints. Thanks for the response.
Reply to @Old_Joe: I've had a great year with my capital appreciation portfolio of just three funds, SPY, IJH, PRHSX up an average of 32%. Regards, Ted
I have over the past couple of months, or so, been increasing my equity allocation to emerging markets and to Greater Europe. However, with their upward price movement over this time span I have now stopped doing this. My thinking is that most of the assets that I follow are now too overbought to continue buying. With this, I am now building cash as my portfolio makes distributions consisting of interest, capital gains and dividend payments. I am now looking for new ideas. Perhaps, as Washington heads towards an anticipated grid lock in the next couple of months valuations will pull back and value can be better found.
Usually, a race car motor will run stronger shortly before blowing up ... Now, I wonder if the markets are much the same?
What is the mechanical explanation for that last sentence? I can understand that driving an engine beyond its performance parameters may cause it to blow up, but the sentence seems to ignore a cause and effect relationship, implying that it runs "better" then "pffft".
Made 2 switches this week. Got out of ARIVX and put that money into HFCIX. Also got out of PAUDX. That money went into MQIFX. Decided going forward I'd rather be in a go anywhere global equity weighted fund than a go anywhere derivative-charged bond fund.
Over the past 2 weeks I've had the largest total gain I can ever remember. While most funds are doing well the gains have come from long time holdings in a few stocks, some as long as 20- 35 years. BA, PCP, PEP, NOV. Since these are large positions, they made a big difference. Now what?
Could you explain this to me a little? At first, I thought you were being facetious but then I thought, maybe not. Assuming I've haven't been pulled into some joke, what's your strategy, etc etc and especially your exit strategy?
From what I have been reading the markets are traded today mostly by computer trading systems that are mechanical of sorts. They are programmed for maximum performance and with this when something disappoints, say corporate earnings and/or revenues, respective stocks get sometimes brutally punished. And, there are computers that are programmed to read news headlines and articles and then trade accordingly. Seems to me, this has made the markets subject to a mechanical type system(s) and sometimes these mechanical systems, at times, have been the major factors in market blow ups dating back to 1987 and more recently with flash crash events.
Seems the markets are now more mechanicaly influenced than ever.
In the last month I have bought WSR, a REIT with a yield on cost of 8.5% and CHSCO a preferred at 7.75%.
I sold RGP with the intent of adding to my holdings in KMI eventually, that is, unless a prettier darling comes along beforehand. PAGP is also getting a long look at but I missed a good opportunity to pick up both earlier in the week.
I'm thinking about lowering my exposure to equity small caps just a bit and move the funds to large caps or a balanced fund. Small caps have had quite a run-up.
Reply to @rono: Apparently it is pricing lower than expected (and you saw a drop in the private equity CEFs that own it), but who knows where it will open on the first day. I think it will probably do very well based on demand for anything social media - and it wouldn't surprise me if you saw selling in names like Facebook as money moves from social media names that have done well to Twitter - but I think it is going to move higher on the back of momentum and the hopes of something more in the future. In the present, it isn't making money and lacks patents (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-18/twitter-pre-ipo-patent-paucity-seen-posing-investor-risk-tech.html)
Reply to @Mark: CHSCO is something that I've been looking at as well, I guess I just haven't found a place for it. Very interesting agriculture income play.
Reply to @scott: The company has been consistently lauded for how it treats its employees. Will be interesting to see if this translates into relatively better stock performance over the longer term (as has been the case for Costco, Starbucks etc.).
Reply to @MikeM: Wow. Times sure are changing. Hard to argue with MQIFX. Is that David Winters' old fund? Eye-watering, long term risk-adjusted performance. Didn't it used to charge a load? No, maybe that was/is SGENX. It does seem it will be harder to leverage if rates go higher. Hope all is well Mike.
Reply to @BWG: Hey! Walmart wants to join the party! http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/29/walmart-promotions_n_4173547.html?utm_hp_ref=business New Closed end fund from Ares Capital Ares Management Announces $130 Million Initial Public Offering of Ares Multi-Strategy Credit Fund, Inc. http://www.cefconnect.com/Default.aspx# More IPO's BRX From Seeking Alpha Blackstone's Brixmor raises $825M in IPO From Reuters: Brixmor Property Group (BRX) sells 41.25M shares at $20 each - the midpoint of the expected range - in the first of what are expected to be several real estate-related IPOs from Blackstone (BX). The $20 price implies a market value of about $6B, and Blackstone will own about 73% of the stock after the IPO.Brixmor is the country's 2nd largest U.S. shopping center landlord and its offering is the 2nd largest U.S. real estate IPO this year. It was formed by Blackstone in 2011 after buying a number of shopping centers from Australia's troubled Centro Properties Group for about $9B.Likely coming before year's end from Blackstone are IPOs of hotel chains Extended Stay America and Hilton Worldwide. 2014 is expected to bring sales of Blackstone's U.S. warehouse business IndCor Properties and house-rental company Invitation Homes. Blackstone also in E&P in Gulf of Mexico From Reuters: 'In addition to projects by Anadarko Petroleum Corp (APC.N) and Williams Cos (WMB.N), private equity firm Blackstone Energy Partners will join the game. In 2015, Blackstone's partner LLOG Exploration aims to start up Delta House - named for the boisterous fraternity in the film "Animal House" - less than 10 miles from BP's plugged Macondo well.Delta House will pump oil from the Marmalard and Bluto fields, namesakes of characters in the movie."
Reply to @Ted: Hmmm. I see Ted has edited his post to take out the bit that I was asking about in my first response. Maybe he was being facetious after all. Ted?
Reply to @Charles: Hey Charles. I have been largely passive this past summer except that I switched from GLRBX to BUFBX. Both are balanced strategy but BUFBX has shorter duration bonds.
Comments
Added to: ESRX
Picked up some MWFRX yesterday, added more RPHYX and MERFX as well.
I'd welcome a pullback in equities.
Regards,
Ted
Regards- OJ
Regards,
Ted
I have over the past couple of months, or so, been increasing my equity allocation to emerging markets and to Greater Europe. However, with their upward price movement over this time span I have now stopped doing this. My thinking is that most of the assets that I follow are now too overbought to continue buying. With this, I am now building cash as my portfolio makes distributions consisting of interest, capital gains and dividend payments. I am now looking for new ideas. Perhaps, as Washington heads towards an anticipated grid lock in the next couple of months valuations will pull back and value can be better found.
Usually, a race car motor will run stronger shortly before blowing up ... Now, I wonder if the markets are much the same?
Skeeter
Now what?
Could you explain this to me a little? At first, I thought you were being facetious but then I thought, maybe not. Assuming I've haven't been pulled into some joke, what's your strategy, etc etc and especially your exit strategy?
From what I have been reading the markets are traded today mostly by computer trading systems that are mechanical of sorts. They are programmed for maximum performance and with this when something disappoints, say corporate earnings and/or revenues, respective stocks get sometimes brutally punished. And, there are computers that are programmed to read news headlines and articles and then trade accordingly. Seems to me, this has made the markets subject to a mechanical type system(s) and sometimes these mechanical systems, at times, have been the major factors in market blow ups dating back to 1987 and more recently with flash crash events.
Seems the markets are now more mechanicaly influenced than ever.
Skeeter
I sold RGP with the intent of adding to my holdings in KMI eventually, that is, unless a prettier darling comes along beforehand. PAGP is also getting a long look at but I missed a good opportunity to pick up both earlier in the week.
I'm with Skeeter on this. I think it's a frothy and while I wouldn't fight the Fed, I have raised a little cash and reaped a tax loss.
Where I am thinking about making a play is with Twitter? Anyone else?
rono
Biggest beneficiaries of that were:
OBIOX
GPGOX
GPIOX
MAPIX
Top 5 of my portfolio (43.64%)
11.03% BUFBX
09.28% RPHYX
08.79% AKREX
08.61% YAFFX
05.93% GPGOX
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/29/walmart-promotions_n_4173547.html?utm_hp_ref=business
New Closed end fund from Ares Capital
Ares Management Announces $130 Million Initial Public Offering of Ares Multi-Strategy Credit Fund, Inc.
http://www.cefconnect.com/Default.aspx#
More IPO's
BRX From Seeking Alpha
Blackstone's Brixmor raises $825M in IPO From Reuters:
Brixmor Property Group (BRX) sells 41.25M shares at $20 each - the midpoint of the expected range - in the first of what are expected to be several real estate-related IPOs from Blackstone (BX). The $20 price implies a market value of about $6B, and Blackstone will own about 73% of the stock after the IPO.Brixmor is the country's 2nd largest U.S. shopping center landlord and its offering is the 2nd largest U.S. real estate IPO this year. It was formed by Blackstone in 2011 after buying a number of shopping centers from Australia's troubled Centro Properties Group for about $9B.Likely coming before year's end from Blackstone are IPOs of hotel chains Extended Stay America and Hilton Worldwide. 2014 is expected to bring sales of Blackstone's U.S. warehouse business IndCor Properties and house-rental company Invitation Homes.
Blackstone also in E&P in Gulf of Mexico
From Reuters:
'In addition to projects by Anadarko Petroleum Corp (APC.N) and Williams Cos (WMB.N), private equity firm Blackstone Energy Partners will join the game. In 2015, Blackstone's partner LLOG Exploration aims to start up Delta House - named for the boisterous fraternity in the film "Animal House" - less than 10 miles from BP's plugged Macondo well.Delta House will pump oil from the Marmalard and Bluto fields, namesakes of characters in the movie."
Majors see positive profit/risk benefits in Gulf
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/28/us-oil-us-gulfofmexico-idUSBRE99R0QZ20131028
Maybe we should just buy Blackstone.
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:BX&ed=us&ei=zYtwUuBdg_6oAYnsAQ
Canadian Rail?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/final-keystone-review-assesses-potential-of-oil-by-rail/article15131675/
https://www.google.com/finance?q=OTCMKTS:CXUSF&ed=us&ei=r59wUugHkO6pAegW
Hmmm. I see Ted has edited his post to take out the bit that I was asking about in my first response. Maybe he was being facetious after all. Ted?