MFOHome About Commentary Discussions Funds The Best Resources Support Us!

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Sign In Register

Categories

In this Discussion

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

    Support MFO

  • Donate through PayPal

Junkster give my $500 to charity

Dex
in Fund Discussions
Junkster awhile ago in a discussion I said the US 10 year will go to 1% before it goes to 3%.
It is in the 1.7% area today and with the Swiss' interest rates at 0%, it won't be too long until the US hits the 1%.

I'm still 100% in US High Yield Muni Bonds and I think they will do well this year and maybe several years in this low rate environment. I can sleep very well at night with this - thanks for pointing it out.

The way things are going - low interest rates and strong US$, there may come a time when High Yield Emerging Markets and other foreign bonds will be the investment.

Comments

  • JunksterJunkster
    Dex, mailed my $250 my check to heezsafe the other day. If I have to pay you off will send it to you and you can do whatever with it. But we have a ways to go there. I'm 100% in junk munis too now and will try and stay with the trend and have some sort of exit strategy in place. Markets tend to surprise. If we have some sort of dramatic economic slowdown that could impact the lower rated munis and the place to be would be investment grade. I am licking my chops hoping hi yield corporates fall out of bed as they will be the next great thing somewhere down the road like they were in December 2008.
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    Sounds to me like you guys are in violation of a whole passel of federal regs re on-line gambling and wagering. Unfortunately my conscience requires that I report all of this to the proper authorities. However, my conscience can be easily disabled if somebody sends me a check for, oh hell, make it $20.... I hate to gouge.
  • JunksterJunkster
    Old_Joe said:

    Sounds to me like you guys are in violation of a whole passel of federal regs re on-line gambling and wagering. Unfortunately my conscience requires that I report all of this to the proper authorities. However, my conscience can be easily disabled if somebody sends me a check for, oh hell, make it $20.... I hate to gouge.

    LOL! The only gambling fool here is me. They stood to lose nothing. Even when I was 100% in the munis early last year no way did I think the 10 year would fall below 2%. And I still think no way will it fall to 1%. The only trend I see here is me being wrong!
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    Hell, I STARTED that trend years ago!!!
  • Hogan
    There is so much money chasing yield rather than growth right now and in the foreseeable future, plus baby boomers retiring, fear of another 2008, low wage growth, fed policies = low rates...right. Just as we all capitulate then rates will rise.
  • JunksterJunkster
    edited January 2015
    >>>>Just as we all capitulate then rates will rise.<<<<<

    Could not agree more!! And probably a dramatic rise at that! That is how this game is played. Logic is the bane of traders and investors alike.
  • heezsafe
    edited January 2015
    @Old_Joe
    "Are you suggesting, Inspector, that there is gambling going on in this establishment? Why, I'm shocked--- shocked!"
    However, my conscience can be easily disabled if somebody sends me a check ...
    Ha! You sound like Groucho Marx: "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them .... well, I have others.":)
  • JunksterJunkster
    Dex, being superstitious, I hope your post doesn't mark some kind of top (low in yields) for the Treasury bond market
  • Dex
    Junkster said:

    Dex, being superstitious, I hope your post doesn't mark some kind of top (low in yields) for the Treasury bond market

    Not with stuff like this going on.

    Gasoline dampens U.S. inflation; mid-year rate hike in doubt
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/16/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN0KP1H620150116
  • JunksterJunkster
    Hope you are right. That is where we differ. I don't believe in making decisions based on news stories. When everyone is on the same side of a trade or investment thesis you better run the other way. Of course there are still a horde of analysts looking for higher yields this year so hopefully the run lower in yields still has some room to run. Do you have an exit point or strategy? Would you let a profitable trade turn into a losing one or willing to give back the majority of your profits?
  • Dex
    edited January 2015
    Junkster said:

    Do you have an exit point or strategy? Would you let a profitable trade turn into a losing one or willing to give back the majority of your profits?

    Junkster,
    My thought is that this situation will last for at least 1 year and maybe as long as 4. It will take some time for people to recognize/admit the deflationary pressure.

    HYD's all time high is 33.57, now 31.34. I will be watching that high and as/if we get close to it I would consider changing the dividends from re-investing to cash. Then watch to sell. Other things I would be watching is the yield on the 10 year and the US$. I really think with the relative high 10 year rate and the strong $ the USA will be importing deflation. The FED would make the situation worse by raising rates.

    I'm watching the $ because it high yield foreign bonds might be a good buy on $ strength.

    Many of those analysist have pushed their est for a FED increase to the 3rd quarter.
Sign In or Register to comment.