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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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Gundlach/Total Return Bond Fund (DBLTX/DLTNX).Webcast today

TSP_TransferTSP_Transfer
in Fund Discussions



Please join us for a live webcast titled "Blockhead" hosted by:

Jeffrey Gundlach

Mr. Gundlach will be discussing the economy, the markets and his outlook for what he believes may be the best investment strategies and sector allocations for the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund (DBLTX/DLTNX).

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

1:15 pm PT/4:15 pm ET

Click Here to Register
https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1051149

Comments

  • AndyJ
    Thanks for the reminder, TSP. I'd registered but had totally forgotten it's today.
  • TSP_TransferTSP_Transfer
    edited March 2015
    @AndyJ Same here.I always forget which day to put the "string around my finger".
    Have come to enjoy Mr. Gundlach's presentations.Gets me laughing at times with the irony I think he excels at.
    Take a ways:
    Janet Yellen- Time spent with foreign central bankers and the White House?
    Negative yields in Euro Zone?
    Central Banks purchases of gold? Possible $1400.00 this year.
    Retest low $40's in W T I crude.Too early to buy beaten down debt in oil patch which has rallied ytd.
    Long term demographics very scary in the next 15-35 years,especially Japan,most of Europe,and China.
    Trend is your friend,especially in fx markets.$$$$$.All DoubleLine's funds,including E M's are $$ dominated.
    Waiting for an Indian stock market correction to deploy more capital there.Long term investors-Buy India,put it in a safe for 20 years-Enjoy your foresight! Very compelling demographics.
    When will the "Block Head" game end? 2019-22 shows extreme bond maturities.Interest rates at that time ??? Government debt service?
    Despite asset/product expansion,Gundloch expects to continue DoubleLine's out performance.He appreciates the concern for his well being though !
    Higher taxes coming,especially the very rich.Has 15% percent of his personal assets in muni's, especially California.Very comfy with that asset. Puerto Rico's debt will get across the goal line.Very compelling for high tax bracketeers.(he implies these tax advantages may be reduced in the future) I R A's ???.
    @Scott Skeptical of old line auto manufacturers.The urban Millennials embrace a carless future with an on demand driverless car available in 30 ?? seconds.Mentioned Uber. Tesla,Apple??
    Housing weakness? At least not very strong.
    I own DLENX.


  • JohnChisum
    His comment regarding the old line auto makers sounds very convincing. In a urban metro environment. That would reduce maintenance and insurance bills for the household.
  • AndyJ
    edited March 2015
    Thanks for the summary, TSP. Also, he repeated that he doesn't see any compelling case for now for significant interest rate increases; even said Dbline added some long exposure after the recent jump. (But watch out ~ 2018, when a perfect storm of debt rollover - both public and private - is in the cards.)

    On the new etf, TOTL, I gathered that the target is a fund with ~ the duration of DBLTX and ~ the asset mix of DBLFX. With the E.R. below the investor shares of both of 'em, imho, it might turn out to be a pretty attractive package.

    Bond sector evaluations right now:
    IG corporates = very overvalued.
    HY, agency mortgages, EM hard currency = roughly fair value.
    TIPS = cheap but "not worth owning."

    His outlook and positioning is pretty different from Pimco's at this point. Very interesting ...
  • golub1
    Did he mention or infer which of his funds seemed most appropriate for the current climate?
  • scott
    JohnChisum said:

    His comment regarding the old line auto makers sounds very convincing. In a urban metro environment. That would reduce maintenance and insurance bills for the household.

    TSP_Transfer said:


    @Scott Skeptical of old line auto manufacturers.The urban Millennials embrace a carless future with an on demand driverless car available in 30 ?? seconds.Mentioned Uber. Tesla,Apple??

    I don't know, personally taxis work just fine in my experience and I don't have to sit there and be concerned about "surge pricing" if I tried to take an Uber on a busier time period.

    Beyond that, the concern is automated vehicles down the road, which I think is probably a reality. Uber is working on automated vehicles.

    At this point, to me Uber is Apple in the way that I think there's a "status symbol" element to it. It's hip.

    SP Plus (which was previously Standard Parking) may be a long-term short if there's less and less in the way of car use in urban areas. It hasn't exactly been a great stock anyways, despite the fact that parking costs in major cities keep going higher - you'd think they'd be doing better.

    ----------------

    In terms of real estate, I do think that "location, location, location" will be increasingly important in the future. I just think that homes/apartments/etc in areas that are close to conveniences and public transit will fare better than the McMansion in the middle of nowhere where you have to drive to do absolutely anything. I do think rents in major cities have gotten out of hand - it's probably still cheaper in major cities to buy instead of rent. Younger people will find appeal in urban areas, but I think the question becomes whether or not those areas are affordable.



  • Gary
    When can one usually hear a replay of this webcast??
    Or is there such a thing.
    Thanks
    Gary
  • LLJB
    The previous webcast is available on DoubleLine's website so I assume this one will be also. During the webcast they mentioned 3-5 days, not specifically related to making it available on their website but for sending it to people who requested it by email and I assume they'll put it on their website at the same time.
  • heezsafe
    @Gary Toward the end of next week, after reviewing the webcast for compliance issues and accuracy, DL will release the webcast for wider viewing. Clicking on the replay link will take you to a perfunctory form; after submitting the info, you'll either go directly in or you'll be e-mailed a link which will take you right in.
    To find the replay link, go to DL Funds homepage here:
    http://www.doublelinefunds.com/index.html
    Click on Events tab for drop-down menu. This event should be at or near the top of the list.
  • CrashCrash
    edited March 2015
    I dunno if it's necessarily a good thing that the DL stable has been adding not just one or two new funds. MY DLFNX is a basic building block in my portfolio. I guess uncle Jeffrey is smart enough to see that there's a big pile of money wanting to get in. People are hearing good things about the fund-family. I have the impression that he is extremely and "deeply" smart. He can be concrete with analysis and be correct. But there's more going on in Jeffrey Gundlach's brain. I remember watching a Bloomberg interview that is at least a couple of years old by now, in which he said: "I wish I could teach it." And yet, that does not in the least scare me away. People have told me that I can put my finger on something right quick, but then I can't explain how I found it!
    "SPOCK'S BRAIN."
  • CrashCrash
    Thanks, @TSP_TRANSFER
  • catch22catch22
    @Crash.....

    That/this would be or is, intuition.............

    I fully state and know that this function may become tuned to and for an individual from experience in particular areas of thinking and understanding; which may show itself as what may appear to others as a pure understanding without much apparent duration of any type of thinking process involved. The "gut feeling", eh?
    I am sure that most everyone here at one time or another has had a period of time in their life when intuition was functioning. These may range in type from physical athletic skills or more pure mental skills; and a combination for skilled sports performers.
    The ability to learn through manual methods of study is in place for most of the population with normal functions of their being. Some will be more natural at certain aspects and areas than others.
    I am amazed with the ability of someone like Elton John (pick your own choice); to be able to work through a 3 hour concert of piano and lyric and not miss a beat. I could not ! But, I may be a better investor than he is capable, because of how our brains are wired differently.
    We all have our own areas of learning that are more "tuneable" and intuitive, versus another topic or subject area.

    My 2 cents,
    Catch
  • AndyJ
    edited March 2015
    golub1 said:

    Did he mention or infer which of his funds seemed most appropriate for the current climate?

    I didn't catch it if he did, and I don't recall him ever doing that (i.e., stating what he thinks the current climate is and which fund is best positioned for it). He did get a question about which Dbl funds he'd suggest for a rising-rate environment and predictably mentioned the shorter duration, lower quality funds in the stable like Floating Rate and Flex Income. But that was in the context of "if that's what you think, here are some ideas" since of course he'd just finished saying he thinks bond yields may stay relatively low for a while yet.
  • CrashCrash
    catch22 said:

    @Crash.....

    That/this would be or is, intuition.............

    I fully state and know that this function may become tuned to and for an individual from experience in particular areas of thinking and understanding; which may show itself as what may appear to others as a pure understanding without much apparent duration of any type of thinking process involved. The "gut feeling", eh?
    I am sure that most everyone here at one time or another has had a period of time in their life when intuition was functioning. These may range in type from physical athletic skills or more pure mental skills; and a combination for skilled sports performers.
    The ability to learn through manual methods of study is in place for most of the population with normal functions of their being. Some will be more natural at certain aspects and areas than others.
    I am amazed with the ability of someone like Elton John (pick your own choice); to be able to work through a 3 hour concert of piano and lyric and not miss a beat. I could not ! But, I may be a better investor than he is capable, because of how our brains are wired differently.
    We all have our own areas of learning that are more "tuneable" and intuitive, versus another topic or subject area.

    My 2 cents,
    Catch

    Good catch, Catch. :)
    http://www.myersbriggs.org/my-mbti-personality-type/mbti-basics/sensing-or-intuition.htm

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