First this is for the younger people. Not the first half of the baby boomers ('14-55) or those older.
Give up the idea of retiring comfortably. You don't have a defined pension plan, little in 401K, social security will be pushed out further, a VAT will be instituted to help with the debt (and Obamacare).
I own my home (no mortgage), truck and travel trailer, single (no debt). I retired in '07 at 51 and since then I averaged $27,000 in spending - that includes health ins and taxes. I'm estimating I will spend an average of $38,000 (includes $30,000 for a new truck) from '16-25.
I did a line item budget for this period. After '25 I grow expenses at 4%
Even with a small pension (13,000) and social security I estimate that only 6 years will be cash flow positive (from pension & SS I'm starting it at 63) starting in '19. I do use conservative estimates for capital growth 5%.
Now the younger people will not have a defined pension and will have to take full SS later or early at a reduced rate. I doubt the workforce will have many 65 y.o. in int or even 62.
The small pension and a good amount of savings that allowed the numbers to work.
So, abandon all hope and enjoy life while you are young. It will suck when you 55+.
Comments
Oh, already done (the given up the dream thing.) Thanks, though.
Basic Living
House
1,981 RE Tax
2,556 HOA - includes outside mtc - painting etc, water, trash, lawn care.
489 Electric
928 Insurance
300 Misc Purchases
133 Mail Box
6,386 Subtotal House
Car
138 AAA
744 Routine Mtc.
1,164 Insurance
147 Registration
1,800 Gas
3,993 Subtotal Car
Personal Expenses
327 Income Taxes
1,200 Cash
360 Medical
340 Cell Phone
3,300 Food
600 Wine
133 Mail Box
396 Internet Access
300 Dining Out/Entertainment
4,230 Health Ins.
300 Clothes
- Driving Lic
-
11,485 Subtotal Personal Expenses
21,865 Total Basic Living
Incremental Living -1
- Travel Trailer Reg
492 Storage
- Good Sam
492
Incremental Living - 2
6,643 Travel/Education/Etc
Misc Hobbies
6,643
7,135 Total Discretionary
29,000 Total Basic + Incremental
I'm not disagreeing with your statement, just adding some additional thoughts. I don't wish for anyone to get sick.
Good to see you here more often lately.
I agree with you there. My older years have been great. I would not want to go back either.
Comment: I wish we could just get the last part of a message using the quote function instead of copying the whole thing. I'll post a comment in tech side. ( I see that it does display what I want. It looked like the whole thing was going to post )
I made a decision to take an early pension (defined benefit) at age 51 after 27 years of service. If anything will be different for those younger than you and I it will be that defined benefits will not be a common component of retirement.
I will not qualify nor did I significantly contribute to SS. I needed to combine my "defined benefit" with a one time opportunity to buy and "extra annuity" to make my budget work. Budgeting, saving and thriftiness is what has allowed me to consider retirement at 51 and it will be that same attention to personal finances that will serve me well going forward.
I moved to a no income tax state, bought a condo in 2012 for $35K that has tripled in value in three years. I drive multiple 20-25 year old cars...that's plural. I furnished my place mainly by finding good deals on Craigslist and the like.
After 50 I started reminding my 50+ year old friends that:
"Today is our last best day...and tomorrow will be our next last best day."
In other words, If you have a desire to do something...do it today. There are no guarantees when it comes to tomorrows.
Thanks for the thread.
The best place to get a defined pension now is the US Gov't.
Will it be as good as you feel you have it? Who knows. We all have different hopes and dreams. I live similar to Bee and am quite content. I travel extensively on half your yearly budget. Which one of us, you Dex, or me has more fun or enjoyment. What I'm trying to say is that it's all relative.
I have two sons in their 30's and two daughters in their 20's. I would never tell them to give up. When it gets tough they've been counseled to keep going. People find solutions.
I believe bleak moments in history show a path.
OK, maybe I exaggerated a tad. But my 20s did suck. I was a lost and aimless person that lived in abject poverty. But the 1980s were among my best living in the Sierras with sunny days almost 365 days a year. Still, I was the poster boy for "not living in the present" since all I did was focus on the future and retirement. I am just thankful and very blessed that mindset worked so that now I can enjoy the "precious present" as much as I do.
Also, one post can not include the all the reasons. For, example, I left out most have little or no savings, the middle class shrinking since the '70s and wages flat since the '70s, employer provided health benefits reduced or eliminated, defined pension plan gone, little in 401K, social security will be pushed out further, older workers (55+) eliminated by companies because they make too much, companies don't like to hire older workers, VAT will be instituted to help with the debt (and Obamacare).
In short the conditions that have allowed a comfortable retirement are gone for most and new challenges will make it even less likely.
Add it all up and my conclusion is valid.
I think you mean well for your children, prepare them for the future - not the past.
Wow!
When I first started thinking in terms of an early retirement, I was approaching 60. Thinking and planning for a mid-50s retirement was never in my playbook. Congratulations if you want and can execute that major league feat.
Every case is highly personal, and therefore singularly different.
In my case, my earning and saving career only started after completing graduate school and doing some military service. I was 30 before mustering out of the Army. At that time, my wife and I packed our entire belongings in an old Chevy and headed for California with the back seat still partially empty. No way could we manage retirement in just a little North of 20 years.
But that’s our story, and I’m sure each of you have your own compelling versions. For you younger folks, retirement will be a life changing event, and warrants careful and painful study before a decision is made. I say painful because of the many component uncertainties that feed that decision process.
One tool that addresses some of these uncertainties is Monte Carlo simulators. Monte Carlo analyses were specifically designed to assess risk probabilities under uncertain environments. During World War II, they played a significant role in the development of nuclear weapons. Within the last 2 decades, Monte Carlo simulations have been developed to facilitate retirement planning. These simulators are now readily accessible for all to exploit.
All the large mutual fund outfits offer this tool: Vanguard, Fidelity, T Rowe Price and others provide versions of differing complexity and differing input requirements. They all do yeomen work. I suggest you do a web search using Monte Carlo retirement planning as key words. You can choose your own poison from a long list of options.
One of my favorites is found at the MoneyChimp site. It is certainly not the most eloquent nor is it the most comprehensive option. But it is likely the easiest to input with instantaneous outputs from 1000 randomly selected cases. Here is the Link:
http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/volatility/montecarlo.htm
One of the benefits from these simulators is that what-if scenarios are quickly input and evaluated. Portfolio survival probabilities as a function of retirement time is the graphic output.
Test how significant the anticipated retirement length is to the portfolio survival likelihoods. Check out sensitivity to savings rate. Examine the survival impacts of guesstimated portfolio annual returns and their volatility by inputting various levels for each parameter. All of these sensitivity studies can be completed in quick time.
All Monte Carlo analyses only output probabilities. They don’t predict the future. That’s the nature of future uncertainties. But they provide the user with a feeling for the robustness of his plans and provide guidelines for more attractive options. Please give this working tool a try.
By the way, Monte Carlo simulators might also help retirees to make better informed portfolio asset allocation and drawdown decisions. None of this is perfect, but in the investment universe, nothing is ever perfect.
Best Wishes for wise decision making.
A second, item is cash flow. The Monte Carlo simulators are good but with understanding cash flow and implementing it properly you can reduce investment risk even more - e.g. budget minus dividend/interest income = $ to or from investments. And you can put several years of estimated spending into low risk investments.
I thought I would be spending $40,000 after taxes. As you can see I'm spending less.
Also, with a projected line item budget you can adjust it annually for changes.
Nobody on this board is aware of this fact, but I was born and spent my first 12 years of life living in Bangkok, Thailand as my father was the S.E. Asia GM for a large multinational and was based in Bangkok . I speak, read and write fluent Thai, which my parents say I learned before I learned English. My Mandarin isn't bad either, although I haven't used it for over 10 years... @JohnChisum ~ I reckon that you live in Manila? Been there many times and always enjoyed the musical abilities of the Pinoys, as well as their penchant for having fun!
Retirement for this young PopTart is a few decades off, but my wife and I reckon that we could retire to Thailand (probably Chiang Mai as Bangkok is a more expensive city) and enjoy the same quality of life (if not better) as in the USA for a much cheaper cost. Foreigners aren't allowed to own property in Thailand, but condos are available for purchase (after alot of haggling of course!). My wife and I figure on roughly $1000/mo. in expenses as we live cheaply. But nobody really knows what costs will be like 18+ years from now...
Will we actually retire to Chiang Mai? As I mentioned earlier, retirement is still a long ways off as we're raising two young children and have 18 years before we could obtain a Thai "retirement" visa at the age of 50. It's a dream for now, but retiring overseas, especially to a cheaper country which one knows well and likes, is an option to the bygone era of the "American dream".
Peace.
Maybe carefree young AND financial secure retirement is still the way to go..seems to be working...
Show it to them...
theguardian.com/science/2015/jan/11/-sp-live-forever-extend-life-calico-google-longevity
Three areas:
1. Anticipated Income (for the year)
2. Recurring monthly expenses*(X12)
3. Major itemized expenses
*For #2 we throw in a monthly sum called "pocket money." Covers everything we don't care to log every time we buy it: gas, food, entertainment, incidental purchases, etc. Would drive you nuts trying to log such frequent small outlays.
#3 is a list of things that are large, but paid-out less frequently. Includes vacations, heating fuel, clothing, taxes, home improvements, auto repair, etc. Also a few K in an emergency or reserve fund. I keep a separate page in the budget book for each of these major areas and faithfully record every expenditure. Amounts allocated to some areas, like auto repair, are best-guess estimates.
We maintain an ongoing fund for area #3 by dividing the total amount by 12 and making monthly deposits in that amount into a separate checking account. Wouldn't have to be a separate account. One could work that out on paper. But, running a separate account for those major outlays is much easier.
Probably sounds confusing as hell. Evolves over time and really becomes simple.
As for my poor example, following those market crashes or other hard times, many have found a way to pick themselves up and carry on. Giving up just doesn't work for me. Don't keep doing the same stupid stuff of course, find a new direction.