Currently, I have this market rated a hold due to valuation since it is selling at a TTM P/E Ratio of better than 24 and with forward estimates being around 18. Since, I am within my equity allocation range of 45% to 55% (and being towards the lower number) I have now begun to watch the market (S&P 500 Index) more closely and with some interest. Since, I have already trimmed my equity allocation towards its lower range there is nothing more for me to do than watch the markets and if the Index should get to somewhere around 1950 then I may become a buyer in equities.
My earnings model for the Index that blends the TTM earnings along with forward estimates reflects that the Index is currently selling at a premium of about five percent. Plus, there are some technicals that I follow and factor in to determine my rating. I'll say this, that a sell (trim equity) rating is not out of the picture. I recently trimmed, in part, based upon a seasonal trading strategy.
We have now had five consecutive down days in the markets; and, with this, I am wondering if we are starting to enter another stock market selling stampede?
Comments
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/28122/investing-is-not-a-game-of-perfect#latest
I've pretty much given up trying to out think the market.
Regards,
Ted
If selling and locking in some gains lets you sleep at night, do it.
If you're looking for buys (as I am) set your alerts and DCA into new/bigger positions as volatility periods present themselves.
Otherwise, just sit back, grab some popcorn, and watch the show.....
As your statement is directed towards "the market" being the equity side, we maintain about 30% towards equity; being the wide blend of ITOT , health care specific and FRIFX .
We continue with the remainder in investment grade bonds; being corporate and U.S. government. No HY or other bonds at this time; as had been previously held. No cash (well, $29.75 that could not be positioned from a previous transaction). We'll sit with our current holdings, and watch as of 11:07am, June 16.
As to the market(s), I will mention again; in spite of the naysayers, this time is different (since the 2007/2008 market melt).
We continue to adjust our thinking and habits from the many years of past investing trends and habits; and to remain flexible and adaptable.
The Power of Habit
Japan Government Bond Yields, as of June 16
NAME COUPON PRICE YIELD
GTJPY2Y:GOV
JGB 2 Year Yield
0.10 100.77 -0.30%
GTJPY5Y:GOV
JGB 5 Year Yield
0.10 101.85 -0.29%
GTJPY10Y:GOV
JGB 10 Year Yield
0.10 103.05 -0.21%
GTJPY30Y:GOV
JGB 30 Year Yield
0.30 104.49 0.14%
Regards,
Catch
Not buying, not selling, but waiting with a larger than normal cash stake.