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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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Wall Street Strategists Not Enthusiastic From Here

FYI: At the end of 2016, we published this post on year-end price targets for Wall Street strategists. For 2017, the average strategist projected the S&P 500 to post a gain of 5.5%. That’s actually bearish relative to the average annual projection going back to 2000. As shown below, on average, Wall Street strategists collectively project a gain of 9.6% each year. In 2016, strategists predicted the S&P would gain 8.4%, which ended up being just 1.1 percentage points away from the actual gain of 9.5% seen last year. That was the closest they’ve ever gotten to hitting the mark. Normally, they’re about 5.5 percentage points above the actual year-end change.


  • edited April 2017
    Old_Skeet is still with his call of the S&P 500 Index reaching sonewhere around 2475 sometime during 2017. Thus far the Index climbed to a closing high of around 2396 on March 1st.

    This call was contained in a post by MJG titled "Blind Forecast" and is linked below for your viewing.
  • TedTed
    edited April 2017
    @Old[_Skeet: I think the S&P 500 will finish the year at 2576, up 10% from its present number.
  • I think those making specific end of year predictions should go to OTB and bet on the horses instead. Gentlemen/Ladies, this is investing, not a casino. Why not provide serious analysis of the market, economy, sectors, even individual companies instead of these carny tricks? Leave the specific numerical predictions to Carnac the Magnificent and Nostredamus. No one can predict where the market will be a year from now with that degree of accuracy with any consistency. You might be able to predict a trend, up or down, but that's about it.
  • @Lewis: Please, stop taking all the fun out of life ! Here is the Bogleheads contest for 2017.
  • image

    Carnac says -3% this year.
  • @Lewis: -3% the S&P having a negative year, will close at 2267. We'll see !
  • @Ted. Not me, Carnac!
  • @Lewis: You mean to tell me your not Carnac. From your picture, you look just like him !
  • @LewisBraham I agree with @Ted. Predictions are fun as long as you don't react to them. Heck, the Carnac bit was fun and funny. Yes... lighten-up Lewis:)
  • "this is investing, not a casino"

    Sounds like one of them oxygen-moron things.
  • @mikeM,
    Um, I came up with the Carnac bit. So you owe your fun to the guy you're telling to lighten up. The problem is there are strategists who get paid seven figures for these kinds of numerical predictions and many people take them seriously. In fact, billions of dollars may be invested based on such predictions.
  • I am traveling for the weekend and only have my handheld so this will be short.

    Years back in college one of my econ professors had our class doing some basic market anlysis and trend forecasting. With this, I plan to continue my forecasting excerise for enjoyment and investment benefit.

    I am not asking anybody to follow my thinking just posting it for additional discussion and comment.

    Now back to ... Johnny.
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