Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
With apologies to OJ, Jerry and the others, Ted was the first to note that David's June Commentary was posted. I'm afraid my initial tongue-in-cheek remark may have been inappropriate or misinterpreted. It was intended to induce others to read this …
October 19, 1987 and October 2008 did not come out of the blue. The markets were already in established downtrends before that time. David you give far too much credence to "the smartest of the smart money people" In almost fifty years in the gam…
Don't bear markets usually start either when the economy peaks and begins to tip into recession, or when interest rates rise either sharply or extensively? A 10% correction or so can happen any time, but a full-fledged bear market? I don't see it. A…
>>>But, if the projections are made independently from each other, there is some merit to an assembly of the wisdom of crowd approach. Therefore, collecting predictions from a band of honest practitioners is not an entirely bad idea.
Also, somewhat related, I would wager the average MFO "small fry" has outperformed the average "large fry" hedge fund over the past decade and most certainly since 2008. Knowledge is very over rated in this game. It's all about how you manage risk!
But you do know these Dream Merchants have no more insights or clues to where the markets are headed than you, me, or the man in the moon??
I think their main job and money making is to get paid subscribers. I think also, that the value of the…
I found some of the info in your post interesting so thanks. But you do know these Dream Merchants have no more insights or clues to where the markets are headed than you, me, or the man in the moon?? In 1999, I spoke at a Las Vegas trading sympos…
BobC, Obviously I agree with you about being debt free and its impact on retirement. That should be Rule #1 with frugality Rule#2. But I still believe there is no right or wrong answer on when to take retirement. I know more than a few that never…
I am bearish and that's good for a continued uptrend in the markets. Meaning I am a good contrary indicator. When I was a more active trader and into equity funds there were times I was so bearish that I would be a buyer. Sounds counterintuitive b…
Junkster, what do you like for those of us who want a tax-exempt bond fund?
Walt, there are others more qualified than me that could answer that. When it comes to tax exempt I only trade/invest in high yield munis. Last year was their year to shin…
Dex, STHBX a dog of a dog. In the same short term junk arena it is completely outclassed by ASHDX and OSTIX.
I was going to suggest a combination of OSTIX and WHIYX.
ASHDX has a short history from what I have researched.
Bee, I was in (and out)…
Dex, STHBX a dog of a dog. In the same short term junk arena it is completely outclassed by ASHDX and OSTIX.
Edit: You are lucky to have a pension. Shouldn't you be just fine once you begin taking SS? You may still have a little out of pocket b…
Regarding my disdain for Monte Carlo and will try in the future to just stay out of discussions where it is brought up. I am not rich/wealthy or remotely close. But I am single, debt free, and frugal. The 90s were good to me, especially 98 and 9…
Hank, what you and icyone added is really the guts of this discussion. Try to live healthy and well and spend less than you earn or take in. The big gotcha which has destroyed many a well thought out or best laid plan are those unexpected healthcare…
>>>>- Did anyone mention that staying healthy for as long as possible is an "investment" - and one you have a great deal more control over than stock and bond market gyrations? I'm talking about not smoking, limiting alcohol intake, lots…
The table shows $42,557 for a single person. If you are debt free that housing figure would be drastically lower. But also, you have to buy a new vehicle (or newer used one if you are really frugal) every 8 years or so and not sure that is compute…
Just getting ready to walk out the door and go hiking and you start another one. I've always thought you need to be debt free (no mortgage, no rent, etc.) For a single retiree over age 65, $2,000,000 should do the trick and $3,000,000 for a couple.…
Ben E. King died just last month and now B.B King. I was more a Ben E. fan from his two hits Stand By Me and Spanish Harlem as well as his hits when he was a member of the Drifters.
Everyone thought the DXY would go over 100 and then on to 125. Everyone thought the Euro would go to parity then 80. So many people thought oil would go to 30 (shrugs.)
Nice observations and how it has always been. The obvious is never so obvious. …
>>>>However, look at the credit quality.
So if the economy does well, they probably do well.
If we have negative surprises and the economy does quite poorly.........that's a different matter entirely.
>>>>>Although I did not claim that good health is essential to improve the odds for longevity, I do believe that linkage. Junkster was inaccurate when he incorrectly credited that statement to me. The “good health” claim was lifted fr…
I suggest we just move-on.
We are thinking the same thing (sarcasm for those who get it)
Anyway, I have to admit I agree with his "take the money and run" Regardless, I also agree there is no right or wrong answer. However, one tenet I absolute…
"And all a result of a couple years I spent as a futures broker way back in the early 70s."
If you were a futures broker, what do you think of futures exchanges (ICE, CME) as investments?
Scott, stocks are not my bailiwick. Plus, based on the w…
Franks Holmes loves to talk. His free e-newsletter is one example of excessive "word-smithing". Most of his funds have been destroyed by commodity deflation.
Here's a link to all of his funds and their performance...nothing but poor performance and…
msf says >>>The bottom line here is that if you've got an average life expectancy, then it looks like you need to be able to invest for around a 7% nominal rate of return with zero risk to do as well as by deferring SS. The more uncertain…
Based on where this thread has headed, maybe I should clarify my comments of..... "I am a boring kind of guy! I spend my time hiking between Kentucky, Tennessee, and North Carolina. ............Unlike a lot of my hiking buddies, I have no desire …
A question for some of the more enlightened here already in RMD mode. If you plan on taking your first RMD in December of the year you turn 70, I assume you have to adjust your quarterly payments for this event? Meaning you will have some rough i…
I have the time, money, and health but I am a boring kind of guy! I spend my time hiking between Kentucky, Tennessee, and North Carolina. Did you know Kentucky has more arches than any state other than Utah and Arizona? And Tennessee is full of b…
This is going to sound contrived but it's true as true could be. A hiking friend of mine always use to ride me for taking early benefits. He was a meticulous planner and had some longevity genes from his parents. He was fit as fit could be, no re…
Many thanks msf. I read and then bookmarked that on supplemental insurance. I may have to rethink and will do more research. I had my first surgery as an adult as soon as I tuned 65 and thought (may have to review that closer) that the supplemen…
Edit: Wait till you get to 65 and Medicare. In my opinion the greatest thing since sliced bread. But you have to get the supplemental policy that covers 100% of what Medicare doesn't pay.
How much does medicare cost for a single person and the…
Dex and John Chisum, couldn't agree more. In older age, live life pursuing your dreams and passions while you still have your health! Or any age for that matter.
Dex, everyone here enjoys your retirement articles including your personal journey. Did I miss it or have you written why you retired at such a young age? I took early SS at 62 (4/09) and have not regretted it in the least. That was money I didn'…
