Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
One of the traits of lucky people is "they nurture a basic core of pessimism so dense and tough and prickly that it startles you when you first come upon it.." From Max Gunther in The Luck Factor. What surprised Mr. Gunther when studying lucky and…
http://www.businessinsider.com/hedge-fund-performance-2014-11
The chart in the link above pretty much says it all. If 2009 were included it would be much worse.
Edit: Since this board is a cut above the rest (way above) I would think few if any …
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-09/hedge-funds-most-bearish-on-crude-in-4-years-after-rally-energy
Overnight, oil is trending slightly higher.
I don't know what the batting average of hedge funds is. If they think crude will correc…
Charles, you are among the nicest and most down to earth posters on this board. You never speak ill and always even tempered (unlike me sometimes) and when your holdings have a bad day you don't try and hide or make excuses. I for one hope you pro…
Markets are perverse and anticipatory. There was something more than meets the eye going on this week in the Treasuries/munis and the junk corporates. And it was all bad for the former and all good for the later.
the undoing of the deflation …
We can stop worrying - per Art Cashin
Pros: Jan. jobs report not enough for Fed rates hike
Markets are perverse and anticipatory. There was something more than meets the eye going on this week in the Treasuries/munis and the junk corporates. An…
Dex, the price in the open end junk muni funds since the beginning of the month and the NAV of HYD and HYMB since the beginning of the month. And today is not looking good either for that sector. This may be much ado about nothing. But I couldn't …
Right, so here's the allure...
Basically, investing with Bruce the past 15 years means you have more than quadrupled your investment since FAIRX inception. You've earned 11.7% per year!
Who has beaten that? Suspect very few.
But you are absol…
Hi @fundalarm
I was reading through this thread again and looked again at PIMIX and its current holdings as of its last posting. This and its cousin, PONDX have a much different mix of holdings from the previous several years. The overwhelming major…
This thread was worrisome enough from a contrarian point of view and now today's action. Up to 19% in corp junk and looking to go 25% by the close depending on the rest of the day.
I have built up a nice nest egg over time and not because I am smart or skilled (actually probably the opposite) But by concentrating solely on trend persistency combined with LOW Volatility. That has enabled me to go 100% all in whatever and abst…
Not to keep beating the same drum but since January of 2014 (13 months ago) it's been junk muni bond funds. But for some unfathomable reason, and much to my delight, investors have always (like forever) seemed to have had a problem embracing anyt…
@Junkster. Just kidding. I like your style - though at your age I'd suggest more hiking, etc. and less trading. Just a thought.
I've done more trading in the open-ended funds than is good either for me or for the fiduciary. I keep a log and always …
T Rowe banned me in the early 90s. They are among the strictest. Others don't really care. I realize it's a sore subject on a buy and hold board because of driving up the operating expenses. But it was the only way I could make a living and now …
junkster: where can you make hundreds of trades annually in OEFs (i assume) and not get banned when it's short term? i just sold two funds at scottrade that i'd held less than 90 days and got two warning letters as a result.
I have had *well* over …
Good grief, folks! I was really only kidding Junkster- had NO intention of starting an end-of-the-world discussion!
I knew that and thought your post was a scream. Some here take themselves far too seriously!!!!!
Scott, forums are full of Pretenders. Maybe not this one as much as the trading forums but there are lots of Pretenders out there making all sorts of unverifiable claims. Posting trades on an internet forum is pretty meaningless as you never know …
Stealth bull market in junk corporates? I hope! 10% there but adding, albeit still mostly all in junk munis with less than 3% in RIMIX. Everything as always on a tight leash. In Max Gunther's The Luck Factor one of his five key precepts is " The…
Stealth bull market in junk corporates? I hope! 10% there but adding, albeit still mostly all in junk munis with less than 3% in RIMIX. Everything as always on a tight leash. In Max Gunther's The Luck Factor one of his five key precepts is " The…
I have his autograph on a baseball. After he retired he was associated with Sears (fishing I believe as he was a real good fisherman too) and my father being in management there arranged a face to face meeting in his office when Ted was at the sto…
Ted Williams always my idol and we can only imagine his career and single season stats had he not missed seasons during World War II AND the Korean conflict. How many more batting crowns would he have won? He won two when he was 39 and 40 in 1957…
I just don't understand why you don't understand. When the whole thing falls apart, as will surely happen pretty soon now, you can take your gold and silver to the supermarket and trade it for stuff because they won't accept money anymore. When you …
Never have and never will understand the allure of commodities and gold and silver. The later two seemingly in the domain of the doomsters. But then I am admittedly biased!!
I think what I was trying to say in my initial post is there are a lot of people where I live that are in dead end jobs, never attended college, and have little to no financial assets. Yet they are much smarter and intelligent than the people I know…
30% in SNTIX, 30% in VWALX, 30% in VLGSX. A tiny stake in VHT.
Junkster: What junk corporate fund looks good to you? You used to like WHIYX, but it hasn't done well since the management change a year or so ago. I sold VWEHX a month ago as oil w…
Stealth bull market in junk corporates? I hope! 10% there but adding, albeit still mostly all in junk munis with less than 3% in RIMIX. Everything as always on a tight leash. In Max Gunther's The Luck Factor one of his five key precepts is " The…
YOU keep out of this! Look at all the work that you've caused! Just sit there and be quiet!!!
:-) :-) :-)
Ha! Ha! Sure has taken some twists and turns. Lucky people are often risk takers (fortune favors the bold) So I never begrudge any of th…
I think most would agree that luck, divine intervention , or a bit of both helped them through their lives.
My lucky break occurred when I was banned by Vanguard and T Rowe Price in the early to mid 90s and landed at INVESCO and Strong.
Since The Luck Factor by Max Gunther is one of if not my favorite book of all time it's no insult to me if anyone attributes most of my success to luck - being at the right place at the right time and having the sense to exploit it aka "Audentes For…
A quick personal story. I always thought hiking and hikers were more of a yuppie thing. And indeed, lots of hikers in my local hiking group are professors at a local college with their PHDs. But the hardest core hiker in our group is a 56 year ol…
I am wondering if today is going to be a mini version of 10/15/14. Regardless, slowly building a position in corporate junk funds and even more slowly in diversified emerging markets funds while slowly exiting some of the junk munis. While *slowl…
Hi Guys,
Education level and net worth are not just positively correlated; they are highly correlated.
That's much more than just me making an assertion. Every single study on this subject that I have ever seen documents that claim. Sure these s…
catch, if there were some sort of periodic table for equity sector funds going back to the 90s you better believe you would find a lot of trend persistency. Where would some of us be were it not for tech and telecom in the late 90s. Or for that ma…
Hi Ted,
Many thanks for the other Periodic Table of Returns references. They all inform.
It doesn't much matter if these Tables are take offs, takeoffs, take aways, or whatever. What does matter is that all these graphic summaries demonstrate a …
First, some important premisses:
(1) We learn that which we deem important.
(2) Parenting, upbringing, and the culture in which we exist greatly influence our sense of what is important.
(3) Longer term, cultural effects are more influential…
Hi Junkster,
Thanks for posting your take on your asset class of choice for 2015.
My "Big Three" themes that I am concentrating on and increasing my current positions in are in Europe, Emerging Markets and Commodities along with their producers. …
