Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
And don't forget about Paul Tudor Jones and his maxim that "only losers average losers". Problem is, all the people mentioned are traders and not investors. I was taught from Day One as a teenager (Nicolas Darvas) to NEVER average down.
the kid who picked up the phone @ Vanguard made a mistake. Vanguard does best to train them, but you know how it goes, plus being a bogle-funded truly mutual fund company (i.e. cheap) they can't really get good help like the loaded institutions can…
fundalarm, thanks, you said pretty much what I said but in a kinder and gentler manner. The female touch I imagine. The easy way to sum this up is with all closed end bond funds and bond fund ETFs the price is adjusted downward end of month based…
I'm not even gone for a day and someone e-mails about this thread. Robert, seriously, you need to get your act together. I discussed as did fundalarm the two ways bond funds pay their dividends. We described how funds like the one you keep harping…
Mike, PZA has been a dandy closed end muni fund, a picture perfect tight rising channel and its YTD return of 13.67% is far ahead of the other investment grade muni funds and not far behind the 15%+ return of the big three in the open end junk space…
@Junkster
Yeah, well, mind that channel. Last time I took a glance, it was narrowing (or is it? it's hard to tell). :)
Junk munis a fickle lover be.
The lack of attractive alternatives could dupe you into staying too long, ya know?
I am hoping I hav…
Regarding the typical open end bond fund the NAV is NOT lowered when the dividends accrue daily and paid end of month. If you are in the fund just a few days during the month your account is still credited end of month for the dividends on howeve…
http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2014/09/23/strong-two-year-auction-draws-foreign-interest/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_ii
Super strong bidding today for 2 year notes at 0.589%, primarily from foreign central banks.
Not that I am proud of it, but I think I have everyone here beat when it comes to being a loser in my 20s and 30s. But at least I wasn't a deadbeat. Because deadbeats don't have dreams and I DID have a dream. My downfall as described below was m…
Robert, it's their volatility as well as having to deal with bid/ask spreads which can be wide in something as thinly traded as HYMB. In the mini selloff in junk munis in early July, HYD sold off over 4% early that month (closing highs to intra…
I took Social Security at 62 and don't regret it one iota! By the time it all equals out, something like around 78, it won't make any difference as I assume my nest egg will be that much larger. I just learned today that one of my lady friends in …
>>>>>@Junkster, is the reason you would salivate at a Fed Funds of 3.75% because you would want to invest in those money market funds or Certificates of Deposit, at the decent yields that we used to see in the past?
Is Gundlach looking for an eventual inverted yield curve? He has been outspoken about how he thinks the economy is not all that strong and an inverted yield curve would imply a recession. I can't see the Fed allowing an inverted yield curve though…
I see you read that column intraday too. Part of the rally this year was because of a shortage. I guess we will see if the increased supply leads to the first down month this year. Again, have my exit point in place if price begins to recede from…
Thomas, not really. Just see where price action takes me. I lightened up form 100% to 79% there just in case but may put some of that back to work. Some of the junk munis ala ABTYX are right at YTD highs with the others are but a few pennies off.
>>>They moved into an over-55 community in a quiet town outside of Seattle and invested $100,000 (cash) into a modest home within walking distance of her wife’s job (no car necessary). It costs them roughly $1,000 a month to sustain their l…
Mike, was looking the other night at what's available at Scottrade among the top funds in that category. Ever since its recent inception, LSFYX has pretty much led the pack here. I've even been in that one once or twice so if push comes to shove a…
Yet, yields on all sorts of bonds keep grinding higher as they have since the beginning of the month. Good news, bad news, it doesn't seem to matter. Tomorrow's Fed speak will be awaited with bated breath. Is it time for floating rate/bank loans…
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/rbernstein_091614.php
Stocks vs. High Yield Munis, September 16, 2014, by Richard Bernstein
Thomas, thanks for the above link.
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/14712/the-world-s-best-investment-opportunity-is#latest
See my post above two months ago about Bernstein's love of junk munis. And as Hank alluded to above, back in the days Bernstein was one o…
Robert, you are right in that junk munis are a different animal than junk corporates. The average junk muni fund has over 50% of their assets in investment grade while the average junk corporate has only around 10%. Morningstar I believe counts t…
Mike, this may not help much but I went back into the archives to January 16 in a thread titled, What are you buying/selling. This was when I began piling into junk munis. In the thread I stated " feverishly moving out of HFRZX into NHMRX". Ev…
Walt, VWALX has never been on my radar screen this year primarily because, at least by Morningstar, it is listed in the Intermediate Muni National category. It's had a good year and right at the top of that category but were it in the High Yield mu…
Junkster, I'm trying to understand your successful methodology. You are looking to sell funds that are at their highs, I'm guessing on the 'prospect' that they could fall with other income funds. Isn't that contrary to your success? I thought that y…
The open end junk munis are the last men standing in Bondville it appears and wonder how much longer that can last. Negative language from the Fed Wednesday afternoon may already be baked in the bond market. Heaven forbid if something comes out mo…
I think one lesson of the bond market hiccup of recent days is that, despite the many months now that the Fed has clearly signaled gradual tightening, it's so NOT priced into the market that a rumor of a relatively minor shift in language produces a…
@Junkster, I was wondering if you could clarify your statement. "Great fund. MAINX a good fund but too stodgy for my tastes and not in the emerging markets bond category."
It is an emerging market bond fund, focused to Asia of course. Perhaps I mi…
@Junkster That's kind of what I'm thinking. Not aware of tons of emerging market funds. DBLEX and FNMIX I'm familiar with, looks like there are 5 other Great Owl options in the category.
Edit: I'd guess MAINX counts to this idea too.
jlev, were I …
@Junkster: Totally agree on managing drawdowns. Limit your losses and let your winners run. The skill is how to implement. How do you go about finding the tight rising channels? Do you regularly look at a list of favorite funds/sectors? Looks l…
For me, volatility equates to drawdowns and that is why I gravatated to tight rising channels in funds with little to no volatility. At least for me, success in trading/investing is how you handle your losers and drawdowns. Your winners require no …
http://www.businessinsider.com/forgetful-investors-performed-best-2014-9
The link above has been bandied about here recently. Scroll down to the end for a visual of the 20 year annualized returns of various equity and bond sectors. At your very y…
hank, if even the market optimists are turning wary that is bullish if you are into market sentiment. As for the 60s, pretty good market years as I recall, especially the early 60s.
John, so right are those obscene valuations in the late 90s.
@Junkster: In case you missed this earlier link.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/15615/average-stock-declines-from-52-week-highs#latest
Thanks Ted, I read most of your links but not this one because I thought it wa…
Old-Joe - great post, best I've seen in many a moon here. Thanks! And married to the same spouse since 1970? What a dinosaur and I mean that in the most complimentary of ways. You are one lucky guy.
>>>>>Is it possible to predict the future? The short answer is 'No.' A market timer, however, believes it is possible to buy stocks or mutual funds at high prices and sell at low prices based upon their assessment of future market and…
http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2014/09/09/gundlach-treasury-yields-depend-on-italian-spanish-french-yields/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_ii
I got in too late to listen to his webcast but guess the above sums up his feelings on Treasuries. Another lin…
Thanks Ted, I wanted to post a link but the only link I saw was the one you posted and that was only a part of the entire interview. Somewhere tucked in the entire interview was some comment he made about how he thought rates had hit their bottom f…
