Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Easier to understand which sectors are currently driving the market...
do a Performance Chart comparison of XLF, XLY and $SPX on Stockcharts.com.
I'd link it but don't know how... maybe this will work...
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.html?X…
Dear MJG,
You said, "In the financial world, if you don’t trust and deploy statistical analysis, you are doomed to fail."
Can you prove this?
Or maybe your definition of statistical analysis is so broad that you assume that nobody
will dare quest…
Shost,
Some short and intermediate term bond Exchange Traded Funds
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/etf/all?assetclass=bond&assetclass=bond
I happen to like BSN Expense Ratio 0.11%,
VTIP ER 0.10% and
BND ER 0.10%.
Pretty darn cheap …
The short answer - All mutual fund sales people are told before they begin their sales career that mutual funds are not bought, they're sold.
After all, it's not an investment industry, it's a MARKETING industry.
Not buying yet.
Agree that the trend is your friend and
it’s either a short term or long term friendship
depending upon your chosen investment school of thought – and we all have one, be it Fundamental, Technical, Macro, Value, Economic, Whacko, …
Investor…
“This is old news. What prompted you to bring it again?”
Well, the markets were closed.
I had a few spare minutes.
This particular video had been washed from the internet for some time.
And I believe that Cramer is a prime example of ent…
Charles,
The Thorp book will show you how to count cards.
Blackjack Secrets by Stanford Wong will show you how to PLAY to win.
Flack (once a full-time blackjack player)
Related to taxes...
I saw a T-shirt that said -
Apparently I'm supposed to be more concerned with what
Mitt Romney does with his money
than what Obama does with mine
Scott, good timing!
Seems that you’re always selling just before a dip and buying just before a rally.
Personally, I’d like to see you post your buying and selling in real time.
But that’s just me.
Fiscal year ends this month…
so this may be profit taking to earn those bonuses.
S&P 500 selling could have stopped anywhere but stopped
at the 50-day simple moving average.
This amount of profit taking may stimulate some margin calls and
we …
Hello MJG,
Some questions…
What does Jim Stack sell – books, videos, a newsletter?
Does he manage money?
Or is he just a professional lecturer?
Did he show his track record?
What is his current position? And what portion is in equities?
You said…
Hi AndyJ,
I don’t see how ETFs or other S&P related indices would have any
direct effect on the stocks within the S&P and therefore its price movement.
If I buy SPY it’s because I see the S&P moving up.
Or buy SH because I see the S&…
Boy Howdy Catch,
I'm using SH (the inverse S&P 500 ETF) to hedge my LT portfolio.
On the trading side - and maybe only a handful of readers are the least bit
interested in this - I'm doing a bit of day trading using SDS.
Hey, let's make the …
Skeeter,
Howdy,
I’m glad to see that you’ve been doing well.
Technically speaking, we’re at an interesting market position.
The S&P 500 has put in a high (April 4th) as identified by a lower high
(April 17th) and it’s presently testing the A…
Let’s suppose that you are an institutional investor – a mutual fund, pension fund,
hedge fund, bank, insurance company, brokerage firm, etc. – and you’re aware of
the market cycles… and right down to the tendencies in April.
Let’s also suppose t…
Hank,
Re: power of positive thinking...
Have you ever read any of Larry Winget's work?
His stuff is so simple, so clear, and also so right in your face.
I find his style crude but refreshing.
Example -
http://larrywinget.net/blog/?p=560
Flack
What has the original publishing date have to do with it?
Maybe some positive thinking is more important than the price comparison.
BTW, how much did the Kindle cost?
Maurice,
An alternative to SPY would be SDY which is less than half the price and
has about a 60% greater dividend...
don't know about its probability of termination.
Ted,
It may be worth remembering that Mr. Bogle didn’t make
his millions by investing, but rather by selling mutual funds.
Bogle’s a smart guy (salesman) who no doubt
still draws big bucks from Vanguard.
Dear, MJG
As always, I enjoy our conversations.
You are astute… and no galoot.
You have mentioned several times that you use/watch moving averages.
Would you care to share what moving averages you apply to
what type of investment instruments and f…
Dear, MJG
You’re “puzzled” as to why I posted a reply to you on the Fund Discussion segment board,
instead of on the Off Topic segment.
It’s simple, I made a mistake.
I do that once in a while thinking that I’ll get some sympathy points from you.
…
Hi, Catch
I think it’s normal to be
“a bit anxious about growth going forward and
attempting to preserve the existing capital with continued positive returns.”
MJG and I go around and around when it comes to market timing.
I believe in it because…
The Go-anywhere funds
“Feast your eyes on this terrific fund! We can go anywhere, buy anything and
make you rich.”
“Looks great, Mr. Potemkin, here’s my money.”
Which may prove that financially speaking; the average investor
is as gullible as…
prinx,
You might want to look at these CEFs.
This is my Top Two list of DEBT CEFs in descending order–
HIX
Exp. Ratio 1.15%
Ann. Div. % yield as of 12-10-11 10.17%
Div. paid out Monthly
AWF
Exp. Ratio 1.01%
Ann. Div. % as of 12-10-11 8.40%
Di…
msf,
SATB was just an example of a neutral hedged position.
And if a person can't figure out how to do a box in another way (Plan B),
then they haven't thought it through.
As an example of a benefit beyond going to cash -
I had very large boxed p…
Catch22,
DO NOT purchase either long or inverse leveraged ETFs (2x – 3x) unless you plan to
hold them for ONLY a day or two.
My experience (about 12 years) with leveraged ETFs (2x, 3x) has been limited to very
short term trades (a day or two), si…
MJG,
I’m sorry that I asked so many questions. I’ll attempt to do less of that in the future.
I also have to apologize for the confusion I caused you.
After reading the seasonality report you provided, I moved on the next link following
that report…
MJG,
A little help please.
I understand the CXO examples to be saying that an investor following the
Sell in May/Buy in November strategy would do so every year – regardless
of the market condition.
In other words, the investor would ignore Bull…
MJG,
Here we see a seasonal strategy that has worked well overall
for some 60 years. But you seem to be saying that data period is suspect
because it is not long enough.
What is your personal opinion of its current value?
In my LT portfolio, I'm only in BND since the first week in August.
In my trading portfolio, also at the same time, I went short SPY for two and a half weeks.
When I covered the short position, I bought XLU.
Now I'm short with SDS as a hedge agai…
