Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
July 8 Episode
Royce discusses why his Royce Pennsylvania Mutual Fund has outperformed its benchmark for over half a century and why he believes small-caps are laying the foundation for an extended cycle of above-average returns.
chuck-royce-shares…
July 1 pisode
Grantham discusses his views on climate change, bursting market bubbles, and artificial intelligence. He believes that climate change is the most important issue facing the world today and that artificial intelligence could have a majo…
@bee. I wonder what you're seeing that I'm not seeing? What is it that you wish you knew about sooner, as you say?
The 401(a) that I was offered was an after tax investment that I could make in addition to my 403(b). This 401(a) “voluntary account”…
Through my State Teachers Retirement System, I learned of a lesser know vehicle known as a 401(a) plan, which was offered on a voluntary basis to individual teachers.
Wish I had known about it earlier in my career.
I always felt their was a knowl…
Good stuff.
As for risk factors, I would add:
- Fund Manager Risk
- Group Think Risk
- High Fee Risk
- Portfolio Construction Risk - "De-worsification Risk"
- Personal Investor vs Professional Investor Risk (both can be risky)
- Cognitive Decline…
June 17 episode:
Bookstaber’s current analysis highlights several slow-motion risks that he believes pose significant threats to the economy, societal stability, and even civilization itself. These risks encompass climate change, demographic shifts,…
June 10th - Audio cast
Three powerful women in finance share their personal journeys on reaching the top echelons of money management and give advice on what it takes, how to succeed and lessons learned.
career-advice-and-perspectives-from-three-h…
Often cities agree to provide these companies with tax abatements in hopes that the multiplier effect will provide a win-win for everyone.
In these scenarios, risk is squarely on the cities, not on the soon to be evicted company.
tax-breaks-citi…
Will we be in another decade where a good manager, deploying a multi-sector bond approach, provides equity like returns from a collection of bonds... with a lot less volatility?
HY Munis caught my eye on his bond return chart.
Wondering if you have consider the impact that Sequence of Return Risk has on a TR strategy verse a dividend withdrawal?
I would seem to me that spending down dividends (say a collection of dividend aristocrats) would be less impacted by Sequence …
Regarding Jobs & Inflation:
Are we Re-shoring inflation as we re-shore jobs? Very different set of dynamics this decade (since COVID).
Prior to 2020:
Some inflation could be exported to the developing world. A portion of US inflation was offse…
FWIW, Schwab has indicated to me that they will honor the $15 trading fee originating from ThinkorSwim (then to TDA); if anyone else falls into that category. I'm not sure yet if that will be automatic, or you'll have to ask for it.
Could explain t…
Healthcare VGHCX / VGHAX is an active mutual fund and doesn't have a related ETF.
However, healthcare VHCIX is indexed and has VHT as the ETF class.
Thanks for the clarification. It appears VHT is exclusively allocated to US stocks while VGHCX IS …
@hank
Over the last few years I have been bought by Schwab twice… and counting. I was sold by USAA to Schwab 3 years ago. Instead, I moved to TD. Recently sold again.
In a world where big (Schwab) eat little (USAA), I should appreciate the added …
Prior to my TD Ameritrade account moving this week to Schwab, I seamlessly did an “in kind” trustee to trustee transfer from TD to Fidelity. Very happy to not be a Schwab customer.
Schwab has always made me feel that people are products to be boug…
@BenWP
Are you introducing a new website for investors? I like the idea.
Maybe we name it “EFT Alarm” later to be named “ETF Observer”.
;)
Let’s great this party started:
VGHCX = VHT
I have often wondered why EFTs don’t hyperlink like mutual fu…
For those who pay an advisor to manage their money, those advisor's management fees need to be accounted for as well. These fees represent an additional "withdrawal" to your SWR rate.
The two largest fees are your fund's expense ratios (mutual fund…
@davidrmoran,
how is it no one has stumbled on this interesting guy?
https://thepoorswiss.com/updated-trinity-study/
I offered this for discussion back in 2020 from the poor swiss website:
updated-trinity-study-for-2020-more-withdrawal-rates/p1
…
@hank,
Japanese Companies = yes
Japanese Economy = not so sure
Buffet's 5 Japanese stocks:
japanese-stocks-that-warren-buffett-just-bought
Japanese Funds/ETFs i have followed:
HJPNX
HJPSX
FJPNX
DXJ - great returns over the last 5 years
Other questions and ponderings I have:
How much of the US debt is a loan that has to be paid back (think of the Student Loan program)? In theory, this should be a good thing.
How much of the US debt become taxable to the recipient? If US debt pays…
Uh, gotta ask...has Rosie, Krugman or Ole' Yellen ever been right on ANYTHING??
Why stop there:
Hussman
El-Erain
Grant
Here's an extensive list of "economic weather people":
Gurus
Reference (not sure if this has been updated up through 2023):
Gur…
@hank said,
"Anybody care to speculate on what caused BAMBX to fall to earth after several great years?"
I feel your pain...
I am trying to figure out the same with a somewhat similar holding of mine, PTIAX. It has recently had a "slight recovery"…
Recessions & financial crises go hand in hand after Federal Reserve tightening cycles. Outspoken economist Dave Rosen-"bear"-g sees evidence of both and advises defensive investments.
He's predicting 3100 on the S&P 500.
Previous lows:
P…
FMIJX has had two unusually bad patches (2020) and (2022) surrounded by some very strong years verses its peers.
fmijx/performance
Not International, but "Global Investing without the indigestion" might be another approach for diversifying away f…
May 5, 2023 Episode:
This week on WealthTrack...Terrence Keeley, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer of 1PointSix LLC, left BlackRock, one of the world’s largest investment managers, in July 2022 to publish his book, SUSTAINABLE: Moving Beyond ESG to …
@Mark,
Just looking at the Tastyworks website know called TastyTrade. They appear to be more of a trading platform. A tasty one I assume.
They are offering a $3K transfer bonus (on $250K)...tastier than most offers. They also appear to have the ab…
Thanks. Very interesting read.
The McCarthy proposal has the word “save” in the title. Sounds positive, but then I saw “clawback and rescind” mentioned.
Pop some popcorn and get ready for some political theater.
Bill Wilby is a retired professional money manager with a Ph.D. in International Monetary Economics who will discuss the problems with U.S. Treasuries and why financials are uninvestable.
One of the best retirement income optimizer I have come across and it's free.
This is the extended version (more inputs):
https://i-orp.com/Plans/extended.html
This is the basic version:
https://i-orp.com/Plans/index.html
A little common sense here would go a long way. If one could use current day prices for some of the costs (improvements), then why not also use current price for the base cost as well? Voilà, no capital gain, nada. Problem solved :-)
OF course…
Dividend-paying stocks are gaining new respect among investors, and they are proving to be a protective asset in times of market volatility. ClearBridge Investments’ Dividend Strategy Fund has been named one of “The Best Dividend Funds” for 2023 by …
Wonder if PRWCX will hold some or all of its equity positions in TCAF. This would allow PRWCX to merely tweak the income side of it's fund. Also, if PRWCX reopens, PRWCX could simply buy TCAF for the equity allocation.
I assume some fund manager ow…
I like the 'In-Kind" strategy:
You don’t need to distribute cash. There’s no need to sell an asset in order to make the RMD. You can take the RMD in property, known as an in-kind distribution. That keeps your asset allocation unchanged.
For most IR…
Let me get this straight, a Roth account that is transferred & receives a bonus isn't taxed, yet a taxable account that's transferred is taxed on the bonus ?!
That is my understanding. The bonus, regardless of the account type, is also not consi…
From @NumbersGal linked article:
Bruce Fund (BRUFX)
Inception date: 3/20/1968
Capital gain in 2022: 58.7%
This fund invests in domestic stocks and bonds, along with zero-coupon government bonds. It currently has about $505 million in assets, and its…
Leading Wall Street economist Nancy Lazar discusses the resilience of the U.S. economy, despite several canaries in the coal mine examples of financial strain. Lazar shares her insights on why the economy is holding up better than expected and what …
