Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Old_Skeet:
I wan't very clear.
What I meant to say was: if 2016 is a positive year I believe the returns will be muted, in the 5% to 8% range. However, if 2016 is confirmation of a bear market which began in the latter half of 2015, the S&P…
Old_Skeet:
Notice that I deliberately avoided saying anything about P/E, valuation, etc. and that did not enter into my thinking at all. There are probably ten different ways of assessing valuation with widely discordant conclusions and the only t…
Junkster:
You have found the proverbial fly in the ointment and I certainly have entertained similar thoughts in this regard - namely, EVERYONE is bearish or predicting paltry returns for 2016. Since it is the job of Mr. Market to frustrate the ma…
Hi Old_Skeet:
After the close on January 4, 2016 I will be 100% cash and will remain so for the foreseeable future. Unlike many knowledgeable posters on MFO my actions are very "unscientific" and I do not advocate this move to anyone else. Briefl…
James Altucher is an attention whore, constantly seeking to refresh his "15 minutes of fame" by saying controversial, dumbass things. Many years ago I realized he was one of the investment industry talking heads that should be ignored.
Puddnhead:
You have completely misunderstood what I posted. The mutual funds vs. ETFs point you have made is irrelevant. Your initial post states that:
1. "The healthcare sector has a rollover top",
2. "I feel ALL healthcare prices MUST fall an…
Sorry, Puddinhead, but I'll take the other side of this bet.
I think you are going to prove to be a wonderful contrarian indicator for the healthcare and biotech sectors. I am a buyer not a seller and I am targeting the ETFs (FXH and IBB) and se…
Whakamole:
This is precisely what I am talking about. I would sell FLTMX on this basis alone. This is similar to what Michael Hasenstab did at with his Templeton Global Bond Fund for several years. He stuffed his face and, unfortunately, his por…
This is simply the tip of the iceberg. The State of Illinois is bankrupt with an insurmountable debt owned to retired pension holders. The legislature is prohibited by law from altering or modifying these overly lucrative pensions, negotiated over…
Went from 70% equities (MFs, ETFs, and individual stocks) down to 55% equities at today's market open with remainder of portfolio in cash, i.e., no bond holdings. Market breadth is lousy, good earnings reports are not being rewarded sufficiently an…
I have had accounts with both Fidelity and Schwab - currently hold all my accounts at Schwab. Two comments:
1. The Schwab website is superb. Clear, easy to navigate, with very useful research links,
especially to Briefing.com. Very user-frie…
Using the volatility to cherry-pick and buy "fallen angels" - stocks that I believe have bright LT outlook that have recently sold off - either because their sector is out of favor or they disappointed with most recent earnings report and sold off s…
"The titles of these links are their content are so politically extreme that I think I'm reading an extremist blog".
The reason for your well-founded "queasiness" is that you ARE reading an extremist blog, one of the most virulent at that. The IBD…
Giving additional bailout money to Greece is akin to giving crack cocaine to an addict. It satisfies his craving and need for several hours only to return soon thereafter wanting more. Greece is economically a Third World country without a functio…
I do not know if Crash bought this after its earnings "disappointment" but I certainly did, when HA was about -28% off of its prior day close. Most of the problems seemed to be one-time issues related to the strong U.S. dollar and unfavorable forei…
For the most part I think Fidelity is spot on. I also see continued strength and leadership in the technology and health care sectors and betting on a rebound in the energy sector and energy stocks is (imho) a good call. With gasoline prices ultra…
"The Board of Trustees of the Birmiwal Investment Trust......has concluded that due to the relatively small size of the Fund, it is in the best interests of the fund and its shareholders that the Fund cease operations."
The fact that BIRMX has lost…
Response to Hank:
My bet is that oil (price of WTI per barrel) will be between $70 to $80 by end of 2015. That is why I think buying into energy stocks that are not highly leveraged and energy & midstream MLP ETFs at this time is a winning inv…
Puddinhead:
If you are interested in mid-cap investing, simplify your life and your portfolio returns by buying VO - the Vanguard midcap ETF fund. It will outperform 95-98% of mutual fund mid-caps and eliminate MF expense ratios, market cap creep,…
In a word, "No."
We are still in secular bull market, albeit probably in the late innings, and just entering the strongest quarter for stocks. Why play games to avoid a potential shallow 4-6% pullback lasting 1-2 weeks that you cannot time anyway.
Replies to linter, MikeM and Derf:
linter: When I bought those energy stocks in September it was for a ST to intermediate term "swing trade". I did not perceive that the energy stocks were in the midst of a bear market and I did not have any conv…
hank -
1. I was not implying that investing under these circumstances is a "no-brainer" - it never is. However, I AM saying that investing in sound, well-managed companies at the present time greatly shifts the odds in one's favor. That is all on…
Hank:
1. Bill Gross has been "right" about very little for several years. Not the guru I would take my investing lead from.
2. A 50% drop in NAV is not important in and of itself. However, when it results in a well-managed stock with clearly d…
Reply to Derf:
1. I cannot say or recommend what you should do with regard to buying individual stocks because I do not know how it fits in with your current investment portfolio and temperament. You certainly can purchase or average into some of …
I still think the small and mid-cap energy E&P stocks look attractive at these levels. Unless you believe that the world's population and energy demands are going to significantly decrease over the next 2-3 years these stocks should be profitab…
Averaging into the best of the stocks in the O & G sector, names such as EOG, CLR, SN, WLL, etc. The price of crude (WTI) may go a bit lower but not much - perhaps a few dollars. Meanwhile, most of these stocks are on sale and are 20% off of th…
This statistic makes perfect sense and the perverse attention given to employment rates, "job creation",etc., overlooks the obvious: this is a structural problem. The dirty little secret is that technology is a job destroyer and its intent and fun…
Recent selloff in the energy sector (probably due to declining price of oil over the past two months ) has provided excellent entry point for several of the best small cap oil exploration & production stocks. Bought: SN (Sanchez Energy), OAS (…