Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Add 1% annually. Usually, by age 75 you can start taking more risk.
WTF portfolio is when someone needs under 3% (2.5% is better) withdrawal annually from their portfolio. In that case they can have 20/80 to 80/20 mix of stock/bonds.
The portfolio s…
After I read many of these papers, I liked the idea of FLEXIBILITY which is what I have been practicing during the accumulation phase.
It also depends on how big is your portfolio.
- If you don't have enough, you don't have a choice but to own a hig…
A bond trader doesn't care what happened, only how to make money in the future.
Examples
PIMIX made 8-10% for several years with low SD.
IOFIX fell 45% in 03/2020, but after that it exploded 40-50%.
Cat bonds did not make much in previous years but …
Momo investing has done great since 1995.
1995-2000: US LC tilting growth did great(https://schrts.co/eYUxufSw) SPY,VWUSX made 247%,266% and musch more than VWIGX(International).
2000-2010: XLE(energy), IWM(SC), VWIGX(International) made more than …
I started a huge position several months ago in CBYYX and emailed someone on this thread. Finder did an excellent job presenting this data already. I found https://www.artemis.bm/ as well and used it as my guide. On that site, you can find an explan…
Bloomberg have been reporting about the house crisis for months now.
https://www.google.com/search?q=bloomberg+magazine+no+rooms+for+first-time+buyers&oq=bloomberg+magazine+no+rooms+for+first-time+buyers&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIGCAEQL…
The economy under Trump got worse because of covid.
Was Krugman as harsh about the high inflation under Biden? no. BTW, he was wrong about it anyway (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/21/opinion/paul-krugman-inflation.html)
Would he be harsh if it w…
The price of food and gas is not the big problem because housings and total expense on vehicles is a much bigger portion of someone expenses. Buying a house in many cases it at least 50% more than 3-4 years ago because prices are 30% up + mortgage r…
msf
In case you consider my arithmetic suspect, the same BLS table gives figures in constant (inflation adjusted) dollars:
4th Quarter, 2019 - $362
3rd Quarter, 2023 - $365
===============
FD: good catch, I would start from Q1/2020 to Q3/2023 beginn…
Big items went up.
House are about 30% more expensive (https://www.atlantafed.org/center-for-housing-and-policy/data-and-tools/home-ownership-affordability-monitor)
Vehicles are 30+% more expensive since 2020. Many categories went up 20+%(https://ww…
>> My kids had several accidents and 3 totals
jesus
good that allstate and amica still talk to you
By that time the kids grew up, and left our house. My wife and I have had an excellent driving record.
Liberty has been at the bottom rati…
Heard a bit about AMICA for insurance. Comments?
Amica has been rated by Consumer Report as the best insurance for decades now. I tried them several times. We have 3 insurance products auto, home, and umbrella and I need one company to handle all o…
@FD1000, way to go digging those. @Baseball_Fan: Great term "confidently wrong"! I love it!
Mr. G isn't the only "expert" that has been wrong but still keep predicting. I collected over the years many of these for other experts.
Why would anyone pr…
I said the following on another forum starting on Nov 1.
==============
In other threads I said to start looking to get into the market in October and wait for the entrance.
SPY had a ST+mid term signal buy
VIX is down
Other stuff looks better too.…
Mr. G is the king without clothes
FEB 2022([www.cnbc.com/2022/02/11/jeffrey-gundlach-says-the-fed-is-obviously-behind-the-curve-will-raise-rates-more-than-expected.html)
"Gundlach sees the 10-year Treasury yield...to exceed 2.5% this year. He also …
Your comments regarding bond funds in 2022 and 2023 are spot-on.
You have a knack for reporting past performance.
I'm much more interested in future bond fund performance.
Can you tell me which bond funds or bond categories will outperform over t…
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/09/business/bond-market-economy-investing.html
mmm...this is what Stanek said on Dec. 9, 2022...."we think bonds are back.” and similar to what she said days ago. What would happen if rates continue to rise? (hint=ba…
I warned about PIMIX since early 2018 (after holding it for about 7-8 years at a huge %) when I sold it and never looked back. RCTIX is a good replacement.
But, most bond funds have done badly since early 2022 because the Fed have been raising rates…
The only way to make a significant performance in bond OEFs is to be a trader + use special funds.
The second way is don't fight the Fed. They have been telling us months ago that rates with go up for longer.
Check FAFRX for YTD against known funds.…
I prefer PRWCX . It beat FBALX for 3-5-10-15 years and tie for one year and with lower SD.
One of the only funds that looks everywhere. PRWCX has a big % of its bonds in HY+BL.
It's a known fact for years that the high tech leads the market and why QQQ made so much more than SPY. See the last 13 years.
https://schrts.co/CJwZWTcf
The above stocks are all high tech, except BRK.B but this one has so much of Apple anyway.
"the fund AUM is much lower now than at the end of 2021".
According to M* AUM=16 billion which is what the article said.
==================
"JP Morgan Fund Could Rattle Markets Friday"
FD: doesn't look to me that way. The article is from Septembe…
From my point of view, the Fed officials "screamed" for weeks that they were going to raise rates. This is when the Fed officials come on TV several times and make the case for raising rates aggressively for weeks.
2022 was one of the worst years. D…
BL funds are usually a good place to be when rates are going up. The Fed told promised us to raise rates since early 2022 and why BL have been doing well.
Current thread: "How would you invest $100,000 right now?"
This is not about how would you spend it or what it means for you or paying someone's debt.
Why not open a new thread and ask what a windfall of $100K would mean for you and how are you…
"$100K is not meaningful to change someone's life."
A total disconnect to the reality of human life. And there we see a person for what he really is. Not pretty.
The above is a disconnect from the subject. We are discussing how would you invest $10…
Gary: Doesn't really matter at all how it affects anything. It is HOW YOU WOULD invest it. If I had $10m I would go buy something nice.
C'mon FD....you never once said how YOU would invest it.
FD: I thought I did, maybe in another thread. I would j…
Well, again, it depends on someone's age, goals, and risk.
I know the following several investors
1) 90+% in Munis: This guy sold his company in the 90s for several million and since then he is in 90+% muni, the rest in stocks.
2) 90+% in CD: This g…
Grantham has been wrong for over 10 years, but, as usual, scary stories sell a lot more.
Who is going to read an interview with someone who says: I don't know what stocks will do in the next 3-6-12 months because nobody does, and BTW, the SP500 was …
From the start I said that without goals age and more, no way to answer this.
In most cases, another $100K isn't big enough to change someone portfolio asset allocation.
A lot more interesting is what would you do with a new $500K to a million. My…
That is like saying...should I buy a bicycle?
It could be a good idea if I live and work at a university.
But, if I want to go on a 2-week vacation to 3 states, not so good.
Is this all my money? if not, what %?
How old am I?
What are the goals?
I don't think so. I don't promote my system and I never made a dime from my site. It is a free place for anyone. YBB also has a site hosted by the same place.
I use my site for many of my investments ideas, from generic subjects and all the way to …
