Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Observations:
1) fred495 is a good trader. Every investment board have different traders. The ones who buy and hold years, the ones who switch every 2-3 years, and others who change when they see better funds than what they have.
So, when someone po…
This thread should be about Iran, it's proxies, Israel, the Middle East, and the US. You have to discuss history because it's all part of the complex.
Was this a new escalation? Yes
Is Israel going to attack? Yes
If Mexico and its proxies will send …
A war with Iran maybe bad, but doing nothing is worse IMO.
Israel is in its second independence war.
A reminder, just 4 years ago the Middle East was calm and 4 Arabic countries signed a peace agreement, first time since Israel became a country. All…
YBB:
So, I don't see what is attracting retail investors to cat-bonds.
FD: any time I see a bond fund with 8% potential per year with a smooth uptrend, I join it.
If the fund makes 10+%, I dance. I don't know many retirees who wouldn't love this.
T…
In Schwab the min is $2500 + $49.95. Most times I don't pay this.
Even if I pay for it, it's meaningless compared to the amounts I invest.
Most investors do too much analysis. If I know the manager and the uptrend is good and smooth I will buy, and …
I was able to place a trade but didn't do it.
I always wait several weeks to see the performance of a new fund.
We drove today to Johnson City TN and tried to hike in 2 places but they were closed. I don't understand why because these places were no…
This is why VOO,VTI indexes have been recommended by Bogle and Buffett. It's a cap weighted index. No need to trade. All you got to do is add monthly for 3-4 decades and enjoy your retirement.
Promised are "great" until you realize someone else must pay for it, and why businesses stopped offering pensions.
IMO, all State/Gov/Education pensions should be eliminated over several years
If a private company offers a pension, it's the company'…
@hank, I have watched and analyzed ALT funds, especially AQR funds, for about 15 years. I'm not impressed, and I explained why.
The only way to avoid big losses is to do timing using special bond funds (PIMIX, IOFIX in the past and others in the las…
The 3 years for QLEIX looks good because of 2022. This is where ALT funds excel.
Then, you have years when they trail and way in the back.
BY the time most investors realize markets are going down and load on these funds, they miss most of the melt…
I'm in a North suburb of ATL. The weather guys were warning us for days, but luckily we just had heavy rain for 3 days and it passed. ATL and the GA coast hardly ever get hit.
In 2 days we are vacationing about 1.5 hours north of Ashville. I'm not g…
Let's test fund flow and look at taxable bond as an example.
Inflow was going high from early July to mid July. From mid July to mid Aug is was an outflow.
Now, look at a 4 months chart of BND(https://schrts.co/EdAKFnRT). In the first period, BND w…
I never cared about crowding in bonds and stock funds years ago for about 30 years now. It meant that I'm in the right fund/category and made good money.
We have been hearing about the big tech companies crowded trade for about 15 years.
Do I reall…
Good thread.
Juan de la HOZ has been discussing CLOZ and explaining it in simple language since 8/2023. See (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4627176-cloz-bbb-bb-clo-etf-strong-10-7-percent-sec-yield-low-interest-rate-risk).
He published another a…
CBLDX is 40% investment grade and 55% high yield. Curious to know how this can be a comparable to a MM or CD where principal is (almost) guaranteed.
Personally I would consider CBUDX as closer to a MM because 75% of holdings are investment grade.
W…
REMIX is a complicated fund using a black box management*.
Fidelity shows Top 10 Holdings AS OF 07/31/2024 at (https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/composition/90470L576)
* The All-Weather strategy is an asset allocation methodology that …
@ FD. For several years the total return on CD’s killed bond funds for everyone but you. The situation was shorted lived but lots of risk free cash flow was fun while it lasted.
First, the question is about now.
Second, in the last 2 years the r…
Hi FD1000. Thank you for commenting and joining the discussion. No, I am not a trader. The only funds that I own in the list I provided are CBLDX and PYLD. I, like you, like to invest with special managers in the bond arena. Who would you recommend …
@mnz,
Your second post revealed a lot more.
Are you a trader? Welcome to my sandbox.
Most investors like to hold for a couple of years.
If you can predict rates in the nearest future, you can do pretty well. I also think that rates fell in anticipat…
I posted since last year that RPHIX,CBLDX,RSIIX are great funds managed by the same manager.
RPHIX would be my closest thing to MM, the other 2 are just good risk/reward funds.
THOPX is another option that I found this year.
Never in my life I owne…
@Observant1
100% equities
I can't find where I posted 100% equities. Use SP500 for the stock portion.
Remember, we are talking about a lifetime period with no change = B&H.
This is no different than what some posters do on investment sites.
They…
The idea is to be in good categories, because markets proved they can be one sided for many years. I never understood why investors are overdiversified.
MFO is an amazing place to find great risk/reward managed funds, but I hardly see discussions a…
@low_tech
Who cares about the 4% "rule" when most bond funds are paying that and more, maybe much more? Just take the bond interest instead of eroding the asset base by selling anything.
Let's test the above. BND(US total bond index) the most recomm…
The common withdrawal works for large portfolios or someone with a nice pension that helps cover most/all expenses.
The other 80+% of the retirees will have a problem.
The following is easy to implement and you will never run out of money. Suppose …
The biggest problems with investment articles:
1) Bogle, and Burton Malkiel's Book, Random Walk proved decades ago that if you buy and hold the SP500 you would likely beat most investors and mutual funds for decades to come. There is not much to dis…
If you followed FD's guidance, you regularly purchased and sold funds
at very opportune times and never experienced losses greater than 3%!
What's not to like?
Easy, peasy... ;-)
When US LC are not doing well (2000 - 2009), it's an easy way to los…
The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Market Index, which BND tracks, dates back to 1976.
Let's put this in perspective.
Prior to 2022, the index experienced only four calendar year losses:
1994 - (-2.9%)
2013 - (-2.0%)
2021 - (-1.5%)
1999 -…
I do my best to steer clear of The Crowded Trade. It's fun, too, to uncover a good stock that's not getting much or any attention. No more penny stocks for me, though. Diversify, but do not di-worse-ify. Growing cash at the moment. Bullish, but valu…
"As someone who makes most of his money in bonds I never understood
why look mostly at high rated bond funds."
High quality bonds ("high rated" in your parlance), especially Treasuries,
are excellent diversifiers for equity-heavy portfolios.
Let's…
As someone who makes most of his money in bonds I never understood why look mostly at high rated bond funds. I want my funds to have a good risk/reward and the above don't do that. Higher-rated bonds have the highest correlation to rates with high v…
No need to be extreme. The pres in office can have a big affect on many things.
Obamacare had a huge affect long-term. IMO, it was one of the worst legislation. I priced what healthcare would cost me and my wife prior to Medicare.
Before Obamacare …
It doesn't surprise me. Over the years, there have been many ways to try to beat a simple index such as VOO/VTI/QQQ, but can't do it over the long term. The beauty of it is the fact that it is based on the market, AKA the price. The price is what bu…
@hank "Marks is big on buying at a discount and holding long term."
FD: Millions tried the above while only a small % have done, Buffett. I have read his articles for a couple years, but he never helped me with my trading which is mostly in bond fu…
