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yogibearbull

On Facebook "at"yogibearbull; on Twitter "at"YBB_Finance .

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  • https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-greg-abel-stock-warren-buffett-51664834938?mod=bol-social-tw "Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B +2.16% Vice Chairman Greg Abel, the likely successor to CEO Warren Buffett, bought about $68 million of the …
  • This fantastic ride for I-Bonds started on Nov 1, 2021. There have been skeptics all along - from "too good to be true", to "this cannot last", to "they may be bad few years from now", to "it is only for $10K/$20K/$25K", etc. Well, enjoy the ride,…
  • $VIX was basically flat on Thursday and Friday. VIX watchers are puzzled that it hasn't reached the high levels of previous market lows. So, some are saying that this isn't the market low yet, but other say it may be different this time, see next. h…
  • @bee, TIAA & CREF use 4% AIR (Assumed Interest Rate) to calculate lifetime payouts for VA units. Other insurance co may use 2.5% or 3% AIR. This is not related to SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate). AIR becomes the hurdle rate. If the returns exceed A…
    in 2% swr Comment by yogibearbull October 3
  • Interval-funds is newer structure with some elements of CEFs, OEFs, ETFs. There are several dozen such funds now. Barron's has a weekly list of these. They are unlisted (on exchanges), so must be bought through brokerages/advisors; there may be accr…
  • @msf, thanks for the details on I-Bonds. I didn't check beyond the history published by Treasury Direct. One can see there also that for a while the limits applied separately to paper and electronic Savings Bonds but those were unified later. My T…
  • XARKX prospectus filing, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1905088/000110465922091469/tm2215312-7_424b3.htm Note interval-fund structure with optional quarterly redemption opportunities for 5-25% of shares. Secondary markets are not expected …
  • It would be a good idea when higher I-Bond limits are approved by the Congress. It may take a while. https://twitter.com/YBB_Finance/status/1574870529198137367 Normal annual purchase limits (without special tricks) for individuals for #IBonds has v…
  • @Devo has mentioned I-Bonds. Those who haven't yet used up their personal limit of $10K/yr/person have only this month until 10/31/22 (Monday) to lock in 9.62% for 6 months from the purchase date. I-Bond rates change on May 1 and November 1, but …
  • Just because bond fund NAVs decline, their $distributions don't go up, although the 30-day SEC yield and YTM will go up. However, as bond funds replace maturing bonds with higher coupon bonds, or trade from lower coupon to higher coupon bonds, $dis…
  • End of an era. LOMMX is among the oldest allocation/balanced funds with inception 11/6/1929. Very ironic that Barron's cover story this week mentions that after historic selloff due to simultaneous stock and bond bear markets, the allocation/balanc…
  • Thanks. I see the history in M* PIMIX Performance/Distributions. https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/pimix/performance
  • TIAA Traditional Rates, October 1, 2022 Restricted RC 6.00%, RA 5.75% Flexible RCP 5.25%, SRA 5.00%, Newer IRA 3.05% Across the board increases +0.25%. Tiny increases in lifetime payout rates. #TIAA #StableValue #GuaranteedIncome #403b https://ybbpe…
  • It's over! The end of awful week, month and quarter, as well-put by CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/29/stock-futures-are-flat-following-thursdays-broad-sell-off.html June-low-test has also FAILED. Nasdaq Comp sank past its June low (10,646) to …
  • Fed closed board meeting under expedited procedures are routine. Other federal agencies also hold meetings under expedited procedures. The expedited procedures are related to Congressional notification and/or Congressional approval/disapproval of ag…
  • As for corrected 1099 from Schwab, several have reported the issue here. Seems to be a Schwab cost-basis recordkeeping issue. But there were no real explanations from Schwab with the corrected 1099, only some vague references that this can happen fo…
  • @Observant1, most low-tests fail like waterfalls with all major indexes collapsing on the same day or the next day. But this week+ long low-test is like water-torture. It started last week on Thursday and here we are a week later, and only DJ Transp…
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 8/31/22 There were minor declines in the stock funds. The changes in the totals were based on a total OEFs & ETFs AUM of about $29.95 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $299.5 billion. …
  • For this strange week-long June-low-test to fail, Nasdaq Comp has to close below 10,646 and R2000 below 1,650.
  • TSP L funds are TDFs with lower equity exposures than commercial TDF peers & with the SV Fund G as fixed-income. These factors caused performance lag when markets were rising, but are helping now in this dual stock-bond bear market.
  • 9/28/22 Bond/Treasury ^MOVE 158.99, up on a historic day when the BOE intervened with QE to support the UK bonds and pound (a dramatic reversal to the QT announced just past Friday). SP500 ^VIX 30.18, down but high SP500 ^SKEW 120.38, flat and OK
  • In reading about central banks recently, I found that the Treasury in the UK contractually indemnifies the BOE on its QE operations, i.e., any profits net of expenses go to Treasury, and any losses will be absorbed by the Treasury. BOE uses Treasury…
  • 9/27/22 SPY -0.26%, BND -0.44%, LQD -1.50%, VBINX -0.23% So, the problem with VWINX -0.78% was its corporates. Nonetheless, VWINX had the largest decline among the hybrid funds (MA, CA, multi-asset) on my watchlist, and FPURX -0.14% the smallest…
  • 9/27/22 Bond/Treasuries ^MOVE 158.12 (high) SP500 ^VIX 32.60 (high) SP500 ^SKEW 120.39 (not high)
  • From what I understand, even idle natural gas pipelines under sea-water are kept pressurized. May be not to full pressure. Otherwise, any leaks will cause salt water to slowly seep into the pipes.
  • There are all kinds of speculations on Twitter. Could be Russia to get out of any contract obligations. Could be the US - there are videos circulating of Biden threatening NS1 & NS2 in Feb 2022 and other US spokesmen issuing statements on NS. …
  • I may inject my typical cautions about ST-HY. Many think, mistakenly, what can go wrong in few months. Plenty, if credit conditions tighten. Then the rollover/re-fi of maturing HY becomes difficult. Defaults don't have to happen. Investors then wond…
  • @Derf, a minor bounce today will create more mess. The 3+ day low-June-test isn't over yet as Nasdaq Comp and R2000 haven't fallen through. So, I hope that today is either a huge up-day that will say low-test was a success (minor breaches are OK), o…
  • Bonds were so weak today, 9/26/22, that several allocation funds lost MORE than SP500. Here are several familiar ones: Moderate-allocation BALFX, DODBX, FBALX, FPURX, VBINX, VGSTX, VSMGX, VWELX Conservative-allocation TRRIX, VTINX, VSCGX, VWINX …
  • Bond volatility ^MOVE (153.61) is now quite high. This may be a warning of some credit-event or financial storm - in the US or globally. On the other hand, high ^VIX (32.26) and low/reasonable ^SKEW (120.01) is an interesting setup that is more lik…
  • The SP500 also fell below its mid-June low today, 9/26/22. The DJIA and DJ Transports did that last week, but new today was that DJIA was also in the bear market with -21% decline from January high (1st time in 2022). The Nasdaq Comp and small-cap R…
  • There may be some large CG distributions by mutual funds/OEFs this year. Some ETFs can have those too. There is a current article on this in the current Barron's by @LewisBraham. https://www.barrons.com/articles/capital-gains-taxes-mutual-funds-down…
  • FXB is an ETF. It holds UK pounds and doesn't seem to be futures-based. ETFs are not insured (whether for stocks, bonds, currency). But it would have liquidation value. ETNs don't hold anything but are just the IOUs of the sponsor. https://connect…
  • M* Ptak posted this on TDFs at Twitter - TDFs 2030 and beyond are in a bear market. Twitter LINK.
  • There are several currency ETFs, FXB for UK pound, https://etfdb.com/etfdb-category/currency/
  • @Sven, I got the gist of what you are trying to say. But the problem now is that stocks and bonds have high correlation. It used to be that only stocks and HY had high correlation. https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1573684964465549315?t=v0rN…
  • This has been a very difficult environment for the bond market. It is being called a bond crash and one has to go back to 1931 or 1949 to find similar times for bonds (see image link below from Twitter Link1). While equities are also suffering, ther…