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yogibearbull
PROFILE - Revised, 8/13/24
Professor Emeritus, Engineering.
Long-time poster at various investment/finance discussion sites.
Interests - Investments, Personal Finance, Financial Literacy, Charitable Activities.
X/Twitter "at"YBB_Finance, Facebook + new Threads "at"yogibearbull, ProBoards "at"yogibearbull, IndoUSTribune
@Sven, Powell did say that dot-plots showed multiple cuts in 2024, and there are only 2 FOMC meetings left. So, more 25-50 bps cuts are coming in 2024. The 2-yr was at 3.61%, meaning sharply lower fed fund rate in months ahead.
Post Conference Notes by YBB
Rates were cut - fed funds 4.75-5.00%, bank reserves rate 4.9%, discount rate 5.0%. Treasury QT continues at the reduced level of -$25 billion/mo, but MBS QT remains at -$35 billion/mo. The QT & rate cuts can coexis…
These are the only 2 Rondure funds left with AUM of $98.88 million. So, will Laura Geritz focus on SMAs only? Before founding Rondure, Laura was at Wasatch and American Century.
Overseas ROSOX was shut in February 2024.
Barron's in 5/24/21 issue …
Thanks @jptak for pointing out that (i) most Morningstar Analyst ratings are now a mixture with some portions directly or indirectly contributed by analysts, and other portions computer-generated, (ii) stocks still have Q-ratings, but not funds (the…
It used to be that computer-generated ratings were flagged by Q-symbols. Morningstar generates genuine analyst ratings for about 15-20% of the fund universe it covers. Now there is additional work as each fund class has its own analyst rating (not j…
Nuveen is a very big player in munis, and John Miller was the Head of that. He was known to throw his weight around, and no wonder, great deals came to him first - or he threatened to blacklist the issuers. But he was feared and there were lawsuits …
It's here for M* Medal Rating changes,
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/why-were-enhancing-morningstar-medalist-rating
Timing of the Change
We expect the Medalist Rating change to go into effect on Oct. 29, 2024. The exact timing of when the cha…
Good info to keep track. But keep in mind that many are projections assuming inflation creep, not yet confirmed by the IRS. Also, major changes may be in 2026 after the TCJA expires at the end of 2025 and it's unclear what parts, if any, may ne rene…
Asking questions is fine. But DS may be under regulatory constraints to answer any and all questions on a public forum where everyone else besides him is also anonymous.
I think we should just appreciate what he can post and when.
September rebalance of XLK won't be much in the news for a good reason. It changed to proportional reduction in weights of the largest 5%+ holdings, rather the the old stupid "stick it to smallest of the 5%+ bunch". This is GOOD.
Edit/Add. Rebalance…
So, I checked my reliable source, X/Twitter again.
The Appeals Court did issue a temporary freeze last night on Kalshi contracts. Court cited lack of time for judges in issuing the temporary freeze on an issues that could affect "national security"…
Many firms (Fido, Vanguard, etc) do report compounded TR for m-mkt funds.
T-Bill return is WYSIWYG, it's the effective TR. If anything, the theoretical nominal rate during the T-Bill holding period would be lower (not higher) than the WYSIWYG TR. M…
Weekend Barron's will have a Cover story on the national housing problem. Favorably mentioned are homebuilders DHI, PHM, LEN, and eTF ITB (there is also XHB that includes home improvement businesses).
2017 TCJA is good until 12/31/25. That means that not much will change for individual or corporate tax rates for the tax filing years 2025 and 2026. But things would change after 2 tax filing years.
Yahoo Finance is showing DJT short interest as 8.44% of the float, 5.12% of the total shares. That is high but not record-breaking.
This Yahoo Finance Statistics page also has related fundamental details.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/key-stat…
BRK insurance chief Ajit Jain dumped lot of BRK-A stock. He still owns a respectable amount.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/12/ajit-jain-dumps-more-than-half-of-his-berkshire-hathaway-stake.html
What are the fees? Brokerage windows within workplace plans aren't cheap and that may be by design to discourage overuse by the uninitiated.
https://www.tsp.gov/mutual-fund-window/
"Fees you’ll pay
$55 annual administrative fee to ensure that use …
I think that the 1st buy & the 2nd sell is a round-trip - the amounts don't have to match.
But if you started with the 2nd sell (as 1st) & continued selling, those would be one-way sells & that would be ok.
I also checked ultra-ST FCNV…
Look at multisector bond funds. These have sovereigns, corporates, HY, EMs - managers will allocate among these. More aggressive are LSBDX, PONAX / PIMIX (humongous), PYLD, BINC (you may have even mentioned it before), tamer middle-of-the-road FADMX…
Just as many PV runs for stocks to 2009 looked terrible, so do bond PV runs to 2022.
Comparisons for money-market and Ultra-ST bonds should be from mid-2022 (i.e. beyond the ZIRP).
A common RMD table starts at 3.77% at 73, is 4.06% at 75, and increases rapidly, 6.25% at 85, 11.24% at 95,..., 50% at 120+ (who is that for?).
However, portfolio withdrawals should be based on total portfolios, taxable, tax-deferred, tax-free.
Thanks.
I was looking at an eTF and yesterday it had data to 8/15/24, but this AM it's to 9/6/24.
I am wondering if some aspects (performance, etc) can be updated more frequently and the others (MPT stats, fund flows) less frequently.
And that ETF i…
Many final headlines of the articles aren't by their authors, but by some editors.
I see this all the time when many Barron's headlines on Fridays (possibly by authors) are changed for the print version on Saturdays (more flashy, apparently by the …
@Charles, good to see addition of eTF benchmarks (eTF to avoid confusion with MFO Premium ticker ETF - not recognized at Yahoo Finance, Morningstar, etc).
Just to clarify my understanding of the related MFO Premium data, these new benchmarks are us…
2 things happened:
1. BRK has huge operational businesses now and lots of related economic risks.
2. WB has gotten trigger-shy. He didn't act during 2020 or 2022. He may be waiting for a market that isn't there.
BTW, many value investors (WB, H…
It's not necessary to follow Bengen's 4% w/COLA SWR for US moderate-allocations to appreciate its significance.
Before-Bengen, the thinking was to start with long-term stock returns, use 3-4% margin to account for return variability, and use the ne…
Among Bloomberg headlines, I couldn't make sense out of,
"Pimco Sees BOJ Hike as Soon as January, Likes Long-Term (Japanese) Bonds"
Normally, buying bonds ahead of rate hikes isn't a great idea. Does Pimco think that expected bond hits have already…
I don't use "All or None" option.
Limit-orders that get partial execution may get filled more during the day, or the next day, or next...
In the old days with commissions, there was a rule that all partial executions on a single day will be unde…
Not surprising that the 4% Rule fails globally
Wade Pfau has a long 1+ hour podcast (8/1/24), and an early segment within is for testing the 4% Rule globally. It failed for most countries. It almost worked for Australia but it was a 3% Rule instead…
@WABAC, I see your August 2011 numbers for the ratio of price-charts, _USAGX:_GLD. The default StockCharts are for distribution-adjusted-prices, USAGX:GLD. So, at first, I didn't see your numbers, but later I did. Current ratio is the same either wa…
Most indexers pick everything. The ranking above may be just that of indexers by their market shares.
Is Fido missing from the list? NO.
Most Fido index funds are sub-advised by Geode Capital Management, #4 on the list. Geode Capital started out a…
Ratio of GDX:GLD shows how depressed the miners are relative to gold-bullion. The ratio peaked at 0.586 in 2006, bottomed at 0.1089 in 2015 and at 0.1081 again in 2020 (pandemic low). Now it's only 0.167; the recent range is 0.136-0.173. It doesn't …
In the old days, when lot of stuff at M* was free, and several M* article used to include a link to authors' screen runs. But that stopped when much of the M* stuff was put under subscription.
However, this isn't important to me. I read many articl…
@Observant1, the PCE index release is TOMORROW, 8:30 AM Eastern time with est +2.6%, core +2.7%.
Barron's was just commenting on general trends, including the PCE index up to the LAST month. I thought I had missed something, so I double-checked.
Posters familiar with options know what they are doing.
But my concerns are the investors who have poor/no knowledge of options but are buying options-based funds thinking that they are all-weather income funds.
Call-writing (-selling or -shorting…
@BaluBalu, currently, mutual funds report only quarterly after 60 days. You may be seeing lots of N-PORT now, but all those are for holdings as of 6/30/24.
This rule change will require N-PORTs every month & those would be release with some del…
