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yogibearbull

On Facebook "at"yogibearbull; on Twitter "at"YBB_Finance .

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yogibearbull
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  • Facebook (and other social-media companies) blames Apple for part of its problems. Apple changed its default ad-settings from opt-out to opt-in. Google may be doing that soon for Android phones. Apple is also no longer #1 in global market-cap. htt…
  • People taking profit from energy XLE and bargain hunting in ARKK? What is that saying - cut the flowers and water the weeds (or, is it the reverse)? Hard to know these days what makes sense.
  • @BaluBalu, in the heady days of allocation/balanced funds, some even touted their performance beating SP500 with one hand tied in the back (i.e. 30-40% in bonds). Of course, that claim couldn't be sustained. FPURX now is also much different from th…
  • There are several differences between the OLD VWELX and NEW VWELX. OLD VWELX: ...was a LOAD fund. After the disaster in the 1970s. Bogle got fired from Wellington Management and started Vanguard. A new era began for funds. ...had a managed-distri…
  • Here are 2 charts for 1/1/65-12/31/80; unfortunately, M* removed the ability to put multiple tickers in these OLD charts. IMO 1974 was an UGLY start for anything. VWELX 1/1/65-12/31/80 FPURX 1/1/65-12/31/80
  • I will look up the old data. I think that 1965-80 was a real stinker stretch for allocation/balanced funds and truly horrible for VWELX (it was a different kind of fund then). Only a few were around then - VWELX, FPURX, DODBX, LOMMX.
  • Private guarantees for current stablecoins are only as good as their guarantors (until the next run). Wait for the US CBDC for real guarantees (there are some around already, digital-yuan, etc).
  • Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders has posted a chart of the correlation between Bitcoin and SP500 on Twitter. My guess is that the correlation is even higher for Nasdaq Comp. So, whether one has Bitcoin/cryptos or not, it is worthwhile keeping an eye on them…
  • I don't know. But CME May 2022 Bitcoin contract high was $60,093 on 11/29/21 & low overnight was $29,700. That is 50%+ retracement & then a strong bounce. Worth keeping an eye on the bounce and any low-retest. https://www.cmegroup.com/
  • Yesterday Bitcoin dipped momentarily below $30,000 but have rebounded off that low this morning. COIN is following a similar pattern but may be 2x volatility. This is a good sign because the stocks, especially Nasdaq Comp, are correlated with crypto…
  • A look at some multi-asset and moderate-allocation funds YTD (charts may default to 1 yr; max 5 tickers per chart). Multi-Asset, YTD VPGDX -8.44% (it had 9 lives but hopefully in final form now; a recent addition for me) BAICX -9.94% FMSDX -12.1…
  • More details https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/09/40percent-of-bitcoin-investors-underwater-glassnode-data.html
  • As of 5/9/22 close, from the recent highs (#StockCharts data), #SP500 -16.26% YTD #DJIA -11.26% YTD #NasdaqComp -27.27% since 11/8/21 #R2000/ $IWM -27.52% since 11/8/21 #EM $EEM -29.87% since 2/12/21 #Highflyers $ARKK -73.59% since 2/12/21
  • Whenever one feels happy, one could read or listen to Jim Grant to change that (-:). His outlook is very bearish.
  • @msf, it seems that @LewisBraham doesn't post or link here his professional stuff in Barron's and elsewhere. There may be contractual or personal reasons. Anyway, I post here stuff from various sources that I THINK the MFO community may like. https…
  • @Bobby may be referring to this piece by @LewisBrahamn on American Funds fee reductions, including for its bond funds, that I saw LAST week but that ended up in a separate Barron's Advisor section (behind ANOTHER paywall) - I found a summary in the …
  • BBB spreads from FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=P5I3
  • Mortgage & GNMA funds are good for stable rate environments. But due to their negative-convexity, they don't have high upside when rates fall (re-fi go up, duration goes down), but have higher downside when rates rise (re-fi go down, duration go…
  • Good observation that I ran into elsewhere too. While YTD is important, indexes had peaks at different times. #DJIA, #SP500 peaked around New Year, #NasdaqComp & #R2000 in early-Nov 2021, highflyers & EMs in Feb 2021. Those hi-to-lo provide…
  • FKIQX will soon have a CEF cousin FIO. https://community.morningstar.com/s/question/0D53o000063bNUqCAM/new-termstructure-franklin-income-opps-fio-multiasset-goanywhere
    in FKIQX Comment by yogibearbull May 7
  • Media is reporting that Nasdaq Comp is in a bear market (more than 20% decline from recent high). But small-caps are ALSO in a bear market from their highs on 11/8/21. And look at that SC-growth stinker. Mid-March low didn't hold, so be careful. Sm…
  • The current Barron's has a Cover and several features on Transportation (Part 1 is out for those interested). And one cannot talk about that without Musk. Speculation is growing whether Musk will be distracted from his old projects (Tesla, SpaceX, B…
  • Good SO FAR if you are a holder. PRWCX has done well too. DODBX too - with its new longs & some shorts strategy. But be aware of risks of your holdings. As I noted in a nearby thread, recently among bonds, corporates have done the worst &…
    in FKIQX Comment by yogibearbull May 6
  • Most bonds peaked on 8/1/21 (munis and HY peaked around New Year). Strangely, inv-grade corporates have done the worst and HY the best - that doesn't mean that everyone should just have HY. So, the stock-bond portfolios haven't provided their typica…
  • Actually, that bear market definition is from the most recent high and for Nasdaq Comp that was 11/22/21. Nasdaq Comp briefly was more than 20% down in mid-March and has been so several times since late-April. On the other hand, DJIA and SP500 peaks…
  • Current high VIX (live) & low SKEW (EOD yesterday) may also indicate selling exhaustion. But watch for new SKEW value EOD today. https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p84968758803
  • Powell acknowledged that current policy of managing expectations by talking has been working. Media had floated possible 75-bps frontloaded hike(s) but Powell shot that down good. So, it was a huge relief yesterday that the FOMC announced only 50-bp…
  • NOTES from Statement(s) and press conference Factors of concerns include high inflation, supply-chain disruptions, Russia-Ukraine war, Covid-19 spread in China. +50 bps hike to 0.75-1.00% fed fund range. Possible +50 bps hikes at 2 next FOMC meeti…
  • @stayCalm, good point. While only future 6-mo returns are assured for I-Bonds, there is about 3-wk window ahead of May 1 and November 1 rate announcements (when the inflation-adjustment is known but small changes in the fixed rate may be speculated)…
  • I am less hopeful on fixed rate going up anytime soon. There is no formula or procedure prescribed for the fixed rate (as there is for the inflation-adjusted portion) and it is entirely at Treasury's discretion. When I-Bonds were introduced in 1998,…
  • Think of I-Bond rates as floating-rates that reset every 6 months. But floating-rates are still quoted as annualized rates for consistent comparison with other instruments. The formula used by Treasury is an approximation of annualization, a carryo…
  • I think Coke Red Cap - Regular, Black Cap - Zero, While Cap - Diet https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/argentina-buenos-aires-coke-display-at-convenience-store-picture-id982745384?k=20&m=982745384&s=612x612&w=0&h=K-rb-zcIW0GoFMgARZ…
  • There is also May 25 US deadline (unless extended) when all dealings with Russian payments (in dollars or rubles) for the US investors will stop except upon specific licensing. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-faces-increased-risk-of-defaul…
  • Keep expectations reasonable. USFR is a portfolio that will lag in rate hikes for now; there is 15-bps ER drag too. Just buying 3-mo T-bills at Treasury Direct or brokerages (commission-free), and roll-repeat, should get 0.83%+. https://stockcharts.…
  • The 2-yr FRNs trade at 3-mo T-Bill rate + spread (positive or negative). So, they should track the (overnight) fed fund rate closely. You can also buy these at brokerages and Treasury Direct. These are obviously INVESTMENT GRADE. But these are DIFF…
  • You can buy I-Bonds on any business day at Treasury Direct- there is no auction as such like TIPS. New higher rate will start tomorrow, May 2. Do watch the annual limit as the order screen doesn't.
  • @Mark, ONEQ follows Nasdaq Comp ($COMPQ), QQQ follow Nasdaq-100 ($NDX). Differences may be due to sampling errors, higher for ONEQ than QQQ. https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=ONEQ&compare=$COMPQ,QQQ,$NDX&id=p59796619787
  • @Sven, US futures will start to trade Sunday evening at 5pm central. CME Link https://www.cmegroup.com/
  • I don't know how often Economist updates. Barron's reported that the EU countries are going to comply with this gas-for-ruble demand ASAP (LINK). This is also confirmed by other sources (LINK2). "EMERGING MARKETS. Russia stopped NATURAL GAS supplie…
  • S&P is copying the iShare trick with older ETFs and newer "core" series ETFs, e.g. EEM and IEMG. At the time of introduction of IEMG, EEM was the higher ER giant and iShare said that IEMG was for small investors with lower ER but not so good liq…