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yogibearbull

On Facebook "at"yogibearbull; on Twitter "at"YBB_Finance .

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yogibearbull
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  • CPI report was BAD. CME Fedwatch is now for 50-50-50-25-25 bps with December range 3.00-3.25%. FORGET September pause. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
  • Indexes are approaching May low test levels (except R2000/IWM that is still well above). https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p07577548093
  • Krane has several China and Asia related funds (OEFs, ETFs). KUAIX was launched on 6/15/21, so barely a yr old and has AUM of only $1.4 million. It seems to be the only mutual fund in Krane lineup that is mostly ETFs. I also see several Krane ETFs u…
  • There isn't much AUM at launch and PGIM hasn't seeded it with its own capital, so the ERs look huge but are capped. I have seen high but capped ERs at launches but not this high. Alternative ways to launch funds are 1) use seed capital from the fi…
  • Well, NightShares is part of AlphaTrAI, which is run by Analytics Ventures. So, the organizational layers (CAKE) are there and all they need is COFFEE (-:). https://www.alphatrai.com/ https://www.analyticsventures.com/ai-startups/
  • Fund objectives/strategies are not fundamental and can be changed just by 60-day notice. If this ETF ever grows into multi-billion AUM, it may face regulatory constraints. A recent example of that was futures-based oil/WTI USO that was forced to ch…
  • VIX is hardly low. VIX of 19+ implies daily volatility of +/- 1%+ (lot) and we are seeing high daily volatility. But SKEW is low indeed. So, we have high fear gauge but investors are not rushing to buy puts to hedge. VIX during crisis is much higher…
  • Long and short DIY is easier said than done. And if professionals cannot do it well, how can retail investors?
  • The NEXT 50-bps is baked in. What has been in the media are speculations of how many MORE 50-bps hikes to come, whether there may be a September PAUSE, whether a shift from +2% average TARGET to around +4% average target (even temporary) may affect …
  • T-Bills, 2-yr T-Notes and 5-yr TIPS are all good now. They do different things. I notice that many posters are too stuck with funds when sometimes directly accessing the underlying product may be better - now is such a time (with a rapidly changing …
  • @DavidRMoran? Profile shows last post in late March but active THIS AM.
  • This may be PC &/or browser dependent. On my PC it works only for 1 magnification setting for 3 browsers mentioned. And after setting the dates, I could reduce the magnification & the dates stuck. Also, @msf noted that this trick didn't work…
  • Another test with another ticker, VFIAX. In my browsers , date windows appear only at 170-175% browser magnification (Chrome 175%,Edge 175%, Firefox 170% ), but once set, they stick. Date windows disappear for lower AND higher magnifications. So, th…
  • @shipwreckedandalone, EUREKA! I didn't notice it before. It seems that the date windows appear on HIGH browser magnifications (175%+) and are editable!
  • I can see Interactive Charts from UNSIGNED Firefox.
  • I got close to @msf by moving the left slider- I am getting month ends, so 2/28/21, 3/31/21, etc. EDIT - I just noticed that msf did 3/15/22 (not 3/15/21), so that may be why he didn't run into month end issue.
  • @mnzdedwards, TIPS have low coupons and funds have ERs, so there may not be any income left to distribute every month even when the policy for FIPDX is monthly distributions. Inflation-adjustments (to principals) probably hit quarterly and they may …
  • Vanguard TIPS funds distribute quarterly. Fido FIPDX says monthly (website and prospectus) but they were $0 for March, April, and $0.000000001 (I think I counted 0s right) for February and May (-:). https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/fe…
  • This was in Barron's, 5/30/22, LINK "ECONOMY. Soft-landing or hard-landing/recession? The economic data are pointing to SLOWDOWN – home sales, household savings, PMI, jobless claims, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, business inventories, layoffs, consumer confi…
  • Many confuse inflation (that is rate of change in prices) with prices themselves. The Fed would be happy if inflation settles down at a lower rate, but then we all are still stuck with high prices. We may see some declines in prices, especially some…
  • 3rd party platforms are NOT cheap. Fido, Schwab, etc charge 0.25-50% just to list things on their platforms - that also applies to brokered CDs (so it is easier to find those from unknown entities). Uncle Sam does get a favorable treatment for free …
  • Others (WSJ, Bloomberg, Reuters) are also reporting the same news but require payment-for-news-flow (-:). Besides ZH, here is another open source, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sec-closes-in-on-rules-that-could-reshape-how-u-s-stock-market-opera…
  • I have had both XLE and IYE and I have used them for tax-swaps in the past. But as I have been gradually taking profits via high-ball limit orders, XLE is all gone and only IYE remains. Only XLE has options. Either is good for trade.
    in OIL Comment by yogibearbull June 7
  • @Edmond, #1 - I started a thread on TIPS vs TIPS funds. It had dozens of views but no comments. Click Update to refresh the chart link there. https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59484/individual-tips-vs-tips-funds#latest #2 - Tr…
  • I haven't heard back from my contact at M* since 6/1/22 and there hasn't been any changes either. So, may be the degradation of the chart feature was intentional by M*. Stockcharts is a good alternative. PV is OK to some extent. Below are OEF VFIA…
  • Upcoming 5-Yr TIPS Auction home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TentativeAuctionScheduleQ22022.pdf Announcement Date 6/16/22 (Thursday) (Purchase at Brokerages or Treasury Direct from afternoon until the morning of the Auction Date) Auction Date 6/…
  • Top Sectors in MTUM After Rebalance (M* data) After 5/31/22 rebalance, top 3 sectors of momentum MTUM are healthcare 29.92%, energy 20.67%, consumer staples 16.73% Before: IT 31.27%, financials 24.51, healthcare 13.05% https://stockcharts.com/h-s…
    in OIL Comment by yogibearbull June 6
  • Yes, EPD is a STOCK, not a fund. Moreover, you have to deal with K-1 for this midstream MLP. https://www.enterpriseproducts.com/k1-tax-information There are MLP ETFs that issue 1099, see https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/113/thread
    in EPD Comment by yogibearbull June 6
  • "Circularity" here arises from complaining about something that may be a result of one's own doing. So, M* is complaining about a blunt tool (MPT based on MONTHLY data) of its own design not being able to detect what happens(ed) over days or weeks. …
  • Refining profit margins as represented by 3:2:1 crack spreads are at record high, $55-60/bbl. I am holding on to some IYE - not yet at all-time high ($57.72, 6/23/14). From https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1532125358744551430 What is crack …
    in OIL Comment by yogibearbull June 5
  • I found 2 M* MPRS documents - Methodology and Empirical Analysis from October 2021. Both are link-downloads only. MPRS Methodology Link-Download MPRS Empirical Analysis-Download
  • Fund dividends are reported as 1099-DIV (even for bond and m-mkt funds). For allocation/balanced funds, those from stocks & bonds are not separated. 1099-INT is from banks, CDs, etc and there may be some in 1099-INT in brokerage statements but n…
  • It is kind of circular argument by M*. BECAUSE M* uses monthly data, its MPT measurements lack sensitivity that weekly (or daily) data may capture. So, M* should quit complaining and instead change its MPT calculations with (at least) weekly data.
  • A good article overall. It doesn't reference the new M* categorization system using beta-based MPRS (see a post nearby), but provides good info on relative-performance, relative-beta and relative-SD. The data lag issue may be explained by the use …
  • In spite of BBB being inv-grade by name, it is considered not so good in the muni universe. So, M* (and others) uses BBB & below + NR for HY evaluation and that is 34.95% for OPTAX; this may include 5.50% in PR. Isn't it part of the old Oppenhe…
  • Free Stockcharts SharpCharts do allow start and end dates. Problem is that links soon default to 1-yr unless one uses screenshots to capture the charts. PerfCharts do have that adjustable window at the bottom.
  • Does the chart for those of you with subscription service provide date range specific function right now? No. I have checked new Interactive Charts feature with unsigned and signed browsers and the features are the same.
  • I agree although some rough tome adjustments are possible with the dynamic window in the bottom panel - the left and right sides are moveable, and the window as a whole can slide (maintaining the width/timeframe). But it is difficult to achieve prec…
  • For FDGRX, SEC/Edgar search stops at 2/24/2006. https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=C000019448&owner=include&scd=filings&count=40 This is the basic link that I played around. Difference was that Fidelity C…
  • For example, I could get FCNTX 1999 reports by entering dates in the date fields for this SEC/Edgar link, https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=24238