Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Some explanations for the chart:
There is 50-yr worth of data color coded for 5 decades.
The solid line is the best-fit line. So, it says, for example, that if the initial yield was 5% (read on the horizontal axis), the approximate TR in 5-year fo…
In the ratio chart of VUG:VTV,
up-trend = growth outperforming, 01/2023-now
down-trend = growth underperforming, 11/2021-01/2023
flat-trend = both performing in-line; not seen for long as the two are opposites
See longer 5 yrs at StockCharts (can…
@Devo, my options for ImgBB in Chrome are a bit different:
Links (non-code links)
Viewer Link - this is the shortened link.
Direct Link - this is the full image URL for the MFO Image tool. It's fine for linking too.
HTML Codes
...
BBCodes
...
I …
@Devo, that shortened link is fine as a link.
But it won't work in the MFO Image tool to post the image here , only the full image-url would work (I am not doing this intentionally).
https://i.ibb.co/7rGbHRJ/Screenshot-2024-07-03-at-5-13-29-PM.png
…
@sma3, M* Investors has X-ray.
Here are 2 pages of screenshots for a Test portfolio of 50-50 ARTKX, ARTGX.
https://i.ibb.co/xJJx6CP/ARTKX-ARTGX-Screenshot1-2024-07-03-15-45-41.png
https://i.ibb.co/ChrCMF8/ARTKX-ARTGX-Screenshot2-2024-07-03-15-46-04…
Good items in MFO July 2024 issue.
My Notes.
Re @David_Snowball
Fund family ratings are provided by MFO, Morningstar, Barron’s, et. These typically are based on asset-weighted performance of funds within the fund family. Morningstar has Parent Hub…
A huge problem during the GFC was the CDS (credit default swaps) sold by insurance companies and institutions. When the underlying credits collapsed, the CDS skyrocketed. At its worst, AIG had a liability of $150-200 billion - it was literally bankr…
Unfortunately, once a high balance is captured by the credit agencies, that high balance and the corresponding high credit utilization will stick for years. A quick or early payoff may not reverse that.
Whenever breaches happen, the news comes out slowly.
Unclear if this breach for Evolve Bank is from the Fed data. I also found a good open source - BNN.
https://x.com/mikulaja/status/1805913148660084932
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/evolve-bank-trust-…
I do own PIMIX, PYLD and some Pimco CEFs.
I don't fully understand Pimco's black-box, but based on its existence and superior record for YEARS, I make an exception.
But I don't make such exceptions lightly. In general, I stay away from funds that…
PYLD uses derivatives that can be long or short. Pimco relies heavily on derivatives for most of its funds. Often, M* is confused, so are many investors. But results may be what matter. One can avoid Pimco black-box by simply avoiding its funds, but…
M* staff's has promised to keep the old M* Portfolio until the new M* Investor matches its capability. So, that has meant yearly extensions for M* Portfolio so far.
M* is dumping its TAMP business for RIAs. There goes its reach for financial advisors.
It will stick to its own knitting - rating stuff (funds, stocks, bonds), making lots of money from its advise-platforms, managing assets in-house. Oh, and that…
S&P MC 400 also had a rebalancing last week, but that is too soon to be reflected in XMHQ.
But MFO Premium is showing significant redemptions in late-May (M* data under Performance isn't updated). So, that may explain its large distribution.
SSGA is showing new weights for MSFT, NVDA, AAPL this morning. Other sites may not have updated.
https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/funds/the-technology-select-sector-spdr-fund-xlk
Fed fund rate has been 5.25-5.50% since July 2023. But expectations of Fed actions have changed.
The 3-mo T-Bill yields peaked at 5.348% in October 2023, and have recently dropped to 5.215%. M-mkt funds track 3-mo T-bills closely, with most of th…
Capital Group/American Funds is the class champion. It has up to 19 OEF classes - load, no-load (529, taxable, Retirement), and now has several ETFs. It has funds for many price points.
I have had some lowest ER R6 classes in 403b.
You can check 2-yr EOD at StockCharts & at Treasury.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST2Y&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p64547483100
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=d…
Well, if this was a stock and you shorted it 15 days ago, and covered now with purchase, you would have that profit.
But with mutual fund, after sale, you had no exposure. With the purchase, a new gain/loss clock starts.
You sold for $11,980 15 days ago. What was the purchase price of THAT (& any distributions)?
Now, you have bought again for $11,690. Your gain/loss will be determined when you sell THIS lot?
If you look at M* Portfolio pages, both Primecap VPMCX / VPMAX and Primecap Core VPCCX are close to the blend-growth borderline. Both have the same 5 managers. But only the Investor class VPCCX is available for the latter. As being run now, differen…
Email and phone verifications are common for many websites. M* is just catching up.
It may send a link via email to click on.
Phone verification sends a code to click or input.
This shouldn't affect any M* free services - not many left now.
MFO Premium now has a new tool FLOW that shows fund AUM, flow & TR. So, one can see some historical patterns.
In M* Performance tab, fund flows are shown at the bottom of the charts.
I have been in the closed VG VHCAX for years and been watching VG PRIMECAP also for years. I now have minimum+ in these reopened funds. As to why, I will worry about that later.
I don't own XLK, so that is 0.00% for me.
But I do hold LC-growth and MSFT, NVDA, APPL are top stocks in those funds.
These 3 are also top stocks in SP500 accounting for 20% of SP500.
So, this shift of about $11 billion in the next few days may …
The use of free-float in indexes is sensible as that is the float that is publicly available. So, excluded are restricted stock (held by executives, directors, connected entities, etc), closely-held stock (insiders, major holders), Treasury stock (b…
This is the likely outcome that is also reported by M* and others,
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240617132/popular-tech-etf-forced-to-dump-apple-stock-buy-nvidia-in-upcoming-rebalancing
Things were really close in Friday's finish. …
Unlike stock buybacks by companies, funds with low/no distributions just retain them in NAVs. Any reinvestments are by investors.
Look at CEFs with managed-distribution policies. They have high distributions even if not earned, and then, some porti…
Defined-benefit (DB) pensions have gone away except for some federal & state employees.
But many people have found defined-contribution (DC) plans to be problematic too.
Industry response is the new guaranteed-income or lifetime-income featur…
This is only for Sam's Club members.
Although there is a single family membership, but 2 or more membership cards issued are really different and unlinked subaccounts - different logins and order histories. And each time you replace a membership ca…
Flowing distributions through NAV can be a confusing process. Account values may keep rising despite the reductions in NAV in the ex-dividend days. This is best seen for ultra-ST bond funds whose NAVs don't fluctuate much. So, the actual prices (_TI…
Federal and state tax laws are different and not always in sync. HSA isn't the only area. 529s have similar issues when some federal-qualified expenses aren't state-qualified expenses.
A huge example is that SECURE 2.0 allows rollover of some exces…
In general, mutual funds don't preannounce distributions except for the yearend distributions. It's just their practice.
But ETFs, CEFs and stocks preannounce them. And some investors play around with those but that is just noise. As things flow thr…
My latest cards don't even have a spot to sign.
I don't like flat cards. They tend to stick together, and if I am not careful, another card comes out with it. This doesn't happen with embossed cards. So, embossing was good after all, beyond the car…
On 6/13/24, market-cap ranks were AAPL, NVDA, MSFT. Would MSFT get the knife? One more day of this silly drama driven by weird XLK rebalancing rules.
6/14/24 close will determine the order, but rebalancing will happen a week later on 6/21/24.
With this AAPL rally, the market-cap ranks on 6/12/24 are: AAPL, MSFT, NVDA. If NVDA remains at 3rd place by Friday close, NOTHING unusual would happen on XLK rebalancing.
Post-Conference Notes by YBB
Rates are maintained - fed funds 5.25-5.50%, bank reserves rate 5.4%, discount rate 5.5%. Inflation target remains +2% average. Base-effects have caused a slight bump in recent inflation data. Confidence in progress on …
FWIW, DepositAccounts has A+ on "Texas Rating" for Morgan Stanley/MS. That alone should be relevant for safety of CDs from MS, not the overall rating.
There is of course FDIC coverage. But the idea is not to chase top rates in CDs but watch bank ra…
