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I will exploit this Treasury issuance related yield rise + from potential Fed hawkish-pause (hold at June FOMC but may be hike at July FOMC) to continue to roll T-Bills. This is still the tail end of Fed hikes.
I won't be adding to my small direct…
Prior attempts for bullish turns fizzled in 2022 and 2023YTD, so watch if the BIG turn this week sticks. Max bullish was 75%, far from where we are, and 50s become high. Remember, sentiment surveys are contrarian, so buy/hold when max bearishness, s…
Liesman/CNBC dissects Treasury's "gradual" euphemism. I also double-checked - it's Liesman, not Leisman.
https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1666766270052679680
@Crash, TIPS should be affected to the extent of the correlation between nominal and …
Tax-incremental-financing (TIFs) only waves future incremental tax revenues for a while (20-30 years) and there is no immediate money commitment from the local government. So, the current "low" taxes on that property continue now, and for the future…
Yes its meaningfully high. highest ever perhaps. twitter has a lot of charts on all this but I haven't figured out how to paste a chart into MFO discussions yet :(
Putting Twitter images here is easy because they have links at Twitter; otherwise, y…
Another way is to check the ratio of SPY:RSP (market-cap vs equal-weight SP500).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY:RSP&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51538998466
I see style boxes for some,
VFINX https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vfinx/portfolio
SPY https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/spy/portfolio
FMSDX https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/fmsdx/portfolio
BTW, M* supercomputers work 24+ hours a…
Well, those are the words Treasury used, but "billions" in a very short time may be called a "flood" - any way, I did that here*. Treasury had drawn down balances to the extent that it was issuing 3-day, then 1-day, T-Bills pre-debt-ceiling resoluti…
I am sure that the new Bosch models in the US have competitive Energy Star ratings, 1-hr quick wash, longer normal wash, heated dry, etc (the built-in garbage disposal may be only a plastics cutter to shred soft solids). I glanced through some Bosch…
Funny.
But we sort of feel scammed by the "system". We paid more for slower operating dishwasher that ends with wetter-dishes because the Fed's requirements for low power and water use for its efficiency labels. I read lot of new guides for modern …
A simple hybrid approach may work - use alternate sources for withdrawals during market downturns. But that may not be possible for those on tight budgets.
Free PV also has features on Monte Carlo, Portfolio Optimization, etc. Former may account fo…
Search MFO for "nondiversified". There are several threads on this topic, especially involving LC-growth. But I didn't find any thread that listed 13 such funds.
@larryB, you can play with that PV Run template to test other possibilities. Free PV database goes to 1985, so 38 years is the max that you can go back with this type of PV analysis (Paid PV may have longer database). PV also defaults the the shorte…
This is even scarier considering that some fintechs are now providing the text-links to click for accounts/billing info for "convivence". People who go for that won't even know if/when they were scammed.
I NEVER click on a link within the email or …
Lenders can just have SF Hilton and SF Park 55. Park Hotels/PK doesn't want to carry them at loss. It's just business - no shame in doing this, and it doesn't matter what company owns which kind of properties.. As posted elsewhere, Blackstone/BX did…
I remember someone mentioning that online orders for FRN auctions are not possible, so one may have to call the trading desk.
FR/BL are the best for rising or steady rate environment, so they should be good for a while. But get out of them once the…
@Sven, one indication of breadth is % of stocks above 50-dMA. On Wednesday, that was only 30.00% (low), but on Friday, it was 52.40% (OK). So, you may want to look at your favorite breadth measures again post-debt-ceiling.
https://stockcharts.com/h-…
Only Fitch knows. But it would be a foolish thing to do now.
See https://community.morningstar.com/s/question/0D53o00006bukgrCAA/us-credit-rating-to-stay-on-fitchs-negative-watch-despite-debt-limit-deal
yogibearbull (Customer)
2 days ago
Well, I…
I also got NEW Treasury announcements TODAY. There was one yesterday, but that was sort of semi-pulled.
Here is the NEW for 13-wk T-Bill https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2023/A_20230602_4.pdf
Pershing is part of BNY Mellon/Bk. https://www.pershing.com/
Pershing Square/PSHXF is a hedge fund run by Bill Ackman. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PSHZF?p=PSHZF
Also interesting that Japan and HK did far better (Europe not bad either) than the US futures indications now. May be the creditors are more relieved by this than the debtor.
Interesting that it was a debt-ceiling suspension (vs an increase by certain amount) to 1/1/25. So, there may be lot of spending coming forward. Strange that the new deadline would be during a possible limbo period between the elections and when a n…
3-day T-Bill auction rate today was "only" 6.256%. Bids were 2.38x what the Treasury needed ($25 billion). But then the debt-ceiling deal cleared the House, and it is expected to go through the Senate today or tomorrow (after 2-3 Senators' objection…
Now the Treasury has announced 1-day T-Bill ($15 billion; reopening) to be auctioned on 6/2/23, issued/settled on 6/5/23, maturing on 6/6/23. May be someone can remember if this was also done during the past the debt-ceiling crises when it came so c…
I checked this morning too, those 3-day T-Bills are NOT available at Schwab & Vanguard brokerages. I thought I might help out Uncle Sam for 3 days at an indicated rate of about 9% annualized (based on quotes in the secondary market). But I canno…
100 "customers" questioned the 7-day SEC yields of VG m-mkt funds? Who has time for that?
May be they were VG competitors who questioned the VG yields even after accounting for VG's low ER. VG shouldn't have much advantage pre-ER.
Out of curiosity, I checked 2 brokerage platforms and they show only 4-wk and 8-wk T-Bills for Auction on 6/1/23 (settle 6/6/23).
Unclear who this 3-day T-bill is for. The announcement mentions both noncompetitive (for retail) and competitive (insti…
Very impressive read!
Tillinghast has an amazing memory and he has great attention to details, even minutia. He needs that to hold 800 stocks, and rumors are that if asked questions on ANY one of them, he can answer without checking notes.
So, I …
Morningstar's gutted portfolio list (it now shows only the top 10 holdings) shows that nine of the top 10 holdings made money over the past 12 months with eight posting double-digit gains.
Given a sideways comment in the manager's latest update and…
