Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
The SEC says that it has enough tools to fight crypto abuses. But the problem with the SEC actions is that it chases bad players after the fact. Where was the SEC when "unregistered securities" were being sold?
Alert on #IBonds, 1/12/23
While the current 6.89% rate will apply to I-Bond purchases until 4/28/23 (rate valid for 6 months from the purchase date), the preliminary projections for the next rate on 5/1/13 are for only 0-1%. About the half of the #C…
Jeffrey Hirsch (son of late Yale Hirsch; founder of Stock Trader's Almanac) posted a table at Twitter LINK with data from 1950 on:
SC Rally (late-Dec Santa Claus rally)
FFD (first 5 days of the year)
JB (Jan barometer)
Subsequent
Feb
Last 11 Mo (Fe…
Fido real estate (RE) hybrid FRIFX also has lower volatility than equity RE (VNQ, XLRE, FREL, etc).
Posters with TIAA accounts may have access to QREARX, the TIAA Real Estate Account VA. It has quarterly Liquidity Guarantee by the TIAA, and doesn't…
Silvergate/SI has tapped FHLBanks for billions in advances/loans. The FHLB $s are ahead of EVERYBODY, even the FDIC. This is getting curiouser and curiouser.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/silvergate-capital-got-4-3-bln-loan-from-feds-amid-run-o…
For Blue Chip Growth TRBCX, Price has an ETF cousin TCHP and also a CIT version.
Price ETFs https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/tools/fund-research/etf
Price CITs (lower-ER; unlisted; regulated by OCC, not SEC) https://www.troweprice.co…
State protections for IRAs vary widely. WA is among the states with strong protections; my state IL too. But there are some states with poor protections (CA, ME, NE, WY). Do check your own state.
https://www.thetaxadviser.com/content/dam/tta/issues/…
I think that the headline writer didn't read through or understand Hulbert's article, or just wrote the headline for maximizing clicks.
Rebalancing isn't for enhancing returns.
But as the article points out, rebalancing is a risk control strategy.…
There are some advantages to putting rollover money in a separate T-IRA (sometimes also called Rollover T-IRA). It can have money from various rollovers. As most of the protections carryover from 401k/403b to such Rollover T-IRAs, this is a clean w…
Deals for brokered CDs are different from those at branches.
Brokered CD raise quick money nationally but are more expensive for the banks/CUs to offer. Local/branch deals are for captive/dedicated customers and often not as good.
Bond market anticipates 2-4 Fed rate hikes. The expectations now are of 2 more 25-bps hikes. So, this may be the tail end of the historic bond bear of 2022. It should be ok to start buying bond funds. High 30-day SEC yields point to potential future…
These cat-and-mouse games in DC are dangerous in that mistakes can happen, or something unpredictable happens.
2 examples:
In September 2008, when the Treasury and the Fed decided to let Lehman go, EVERYONE went to sleep thinking that EVERYTHING …
BTW, gold volatility GVZ has collapsed as physical gold and gold-miners have moved up quietly. Remember, when gold is near highs or lows, its volatility will jump sharply. It has been in the news that many global central banks have been accumulating…
Some are looking for crash-level VIX of 45-80 before the bear market ends. IMO, VIX remains elevated; it was elevated throughout 2022.
VIX of 21.13 means daily SP500 volatility of +/- 1.11% most of the time and +/- 2.22% or +/- 3.33% some of the t…
Default is when bills are not paid when due.
Why it occurs doesn't matter - the lack of ability or will or willingness to pay. Technically, there is also a grace period of a few days or weeks, but in case of debt-ceiling crisis, the max damage may…
Wolf Street has a very negative piece on Silvergate/SI - eroding capital base; huge withdrawals; regulators may be watching.
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/01/05/crypto-bank-silvergate-details-its-own-implosion-much-of-its-equity-capital-wiped-out-im-w…
Direct link https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923184/000119312523002397/d416122d497.htm
M* had mentioned that co-lead-manager Yu Zhang was responsible for the recent (5+ years) shift in MAPIX from old current-dividend emphasis to also includ…
ROC(250) = Rate of Change over 250 trading days, so that is close to 12-mo. If you prefer 252 or some other number, you can adjust.
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:rate_of_change_roc_and_momentum
Tax-managed VTMFX has 50-50.
But other Vanguard allocation/balanced funds are either 60-40 or 40-60. For years, people have talked about a 50-50 mix of VWELX and VWINX to produce 50-50 allocation.
Wellington managed HBLAX is close to 50-50.
Bad news for Celsius Earn Program (cryptos) customers. Bankruptcy judge cites fine print in his ruling that customer assets under the Program belonged to Celsius, not customers. This will put a new focus on brokerage TOS (terms of service) in crypto…
@sma3, older TIPS will have accumulated inflation adjustments in principal. Pay attention to YTM (for real-yield). Short-term TIPS look more confusing due to the current inflation reflected in quotes.
TIPS at auctions don't have these issues, but …
This has to be tested for fund families.
My experience is that Fido and Vanguard don't bother much with fund minimum so long as one has a large account. And they may first give a warning to bring up the amount to fund minimum.
Specifically, Vangua…
Liability matching is possible. But mortgages are at spreads over Treasuries or inv-grade bonds, so it may require MORE than the mortgage balance to cover mortgage payments. If one has that much liquid money around, then why get the mortgage? Just p…
@Sven, I-Bonds and ST-TIPS (held to maturity) are for safer money. They try to pick up CPI + a few bps (40 bps for I-Bonds, 165 bps for 5-yr TIPS, 1/3/23).
LT-TIPS are for speculative money. I doubt that investors buying 20 or 30 year TIPS will hol…
TIPSwatch has its 2023 annual guide to I-Bonds. They are compared with current alternatives - TIPS and CDs. Conclusion is less clear cut for I-Bonds in 2023 than it was in 2022.
https://tipswatch.com/2023/01/03/i-bonds-a-not-so-simple-buying-guide-f…
I am now K-1 free!
But until a couple of years ago, I used the PWC site (registration required) that consolidates reporting of most K-1s. Typically, they start to become available in mid/late-March.
https://www.taxpackagesupport.com/
UC invests $4 billion in a special class I of BREIT that will guarantee 11.25%+ return over 6 years. Sort of an expensive financing for BREIT. UC reached out to Blackstone/BX for the deal.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackstone-breit-gets-4-bill…
SR Problems With Yearend CG Distributions (Manual Reinvestments)
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/318/stock-rover-sr?page=1&scrollTo=887
@Sven, as noted before, TIPS held to maturity capture initial real rate plus CPI, but TIPS funds are affected by both rates and duration. I have mentioned 5-yr TIPS often as it is easier to hold them to maturity; individual TIPS will also see fluctu…
Recall that DODBX has changed investment policy recently to include some shorting. Its idea was to tame its high volatility. This is quite unusual for allocation/balanced funds, and DODBX may have had beginner's luck just as this bear was arriving. …
The IMF and World Bank provide help to many developing countries through grants and loans. Some of their annual funding comes from developed countries. Both institutions are in unique positions to have global economic views that shouldn't be ignored.
LB's article in Barron's looks at pros and cons of FR/BL.
Keep in mind that FR/BL are a subclass of HY and their rate resetting mechanism works fine when rates are rising or stable. If rates start declining, or economy finds itself in recession, th…
My plan WAS to buy I-Bonds in 2023, but stingy rate on 11/1/22 changed that. IMO, 5-yr TIPS held to maturity are better (1.66% real rate plus CPI) OR I may just feed the bear a bit (-:).
