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I have been saying this too since the new I-Bond rates came out. Afterall, both capture the CPI (see chart below), so why no go with much higher yields of 5-yr TIPS now. BTW, the real yield curve is also inverted now.
REAL yields 5-yr 1.71%, 10-yr 1…
Once an annuity, always an annuity.
If you want to take the money out before 59.5, there are taxes and 10% penalty. Also, you have to use 1035 exchange to transfer annuity from one vendor to another. Safety (credit rating) of insurance company is …
Low SKEW is not confirming this. When investors buy lots of puts, their prices tend to get relatively more expensive than calls; then SKEW should be high. But SKEW remains low.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SKEW&p=D&yr=1&…
Good M* analysis.
The YIELD-CURVE is mostly inverted (2y-10y, 3m-30y, etc) but what really matters is the short end that Powell is watching, 3m-18m and/or 3m-3m18mforward spread; these are unusual spreads but close is the readily available 3m-2y sp…
@Anna, Facebook, Twitter, etc use AI to learn from your clicks and from Likes/Follows for news sources/pages and people. Same with Google News - I can see that on identical PCs that my wife and I have and those are offered quite different Google New…
I used to be exclusively at M*, and for years, resisted posting elsewhere. But various M* platform changes, and loss of contents with each move, forced me to change my web/social-media approach.
Now, I am at several platforms. Each has its unique f…
Charitable contributions is a valid idea. Use DAF to contribute right away but dole out contributions later; great if you can itemize.
Repositioning portfolio to take some gains and using TLH for offsetting those is also a good idea.
I am not seei…
My reference to Twitter "down" meant as the website down/shut/unstable/outage, but it has been running OK so far EXCEPT that there seem to be more crypto-bots posting silly & unrelated comments (I have blocked dozens since just yesterday). So, t…
If Twitter isn't down when there are only few hundreds of employees left now, down from few thousands (after another round mass resignations/layoffs yesterday, after 1-day email notice from Must to work hard/harder/hardest OR quit), some are saying …
Call Schwab and ask if they can do this as tax-free exchange. If the Rep or broker-trainee doesn't know about this, ask for a senior personnel. Do it only if they say it can be done. It is easier for them to just do 2 trades, sell PRWCX, buy TRAIX, …
@Mark, not an owner but I know that GBTC is a trust, NOT an ETF/OEF/CEF. It has high ER, 6-mo holding requirement, min $50K, and may require accredited-investor status. It has high discount now (it was at premium when Bitcoin was hot). Cathie Wood h…
@Crash, it depends on whether you are using non-login (free) or login (also free; allows storing stuff) version. In the former, the image link may have to be extracted from the URLs provided; in the latter, several links are provided and the image l…
For images without address/URL, one can take screenshot, upload to an image hosting site (e.g. free ImgBB). Then use the address/URL from there and follow the steps in the previous post.
More https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/5…
@Sven
Thanks. I have never figured out how to copy pictures or graphs.
Right-click image and copy image-address/URL (not link-address/URL; not all images have this) and then paste in MFO Image tool (3rd from right).
Prospect Capital/PSEC is a BDC (co rating BBB) and its bonds mentioned by SA are rated BBB-, borderline inv-grade.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PSEC/profile?p=PSEC
More Genesis news, https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/11/16/genesis-crypto-lending-unit-is-halting-customer-withdrawals-in-wake-of-ftx-collapse/
Gemini is also pausing some withdrawals, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ftx-latest-regulators-disc…
Verification may come from satellites passing over that area, or geosynchronous satellite, if over that area. This may take hours/days and the info may not even be released. There is already confusion over the debris.
Lot of speculations. From gas explosion to truck explosion to the remnants of a Russian missile shot & deflected by Ukraine.
Almost everybody is at G20 in Bali, Indonesia to resolve this there or fight it out.
PPI (wholesale) came below expectations at 8.0% y-o-y. Stock futures like the news.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/15/wholesale-prices-rose-0point2percent-in-october-less-than-expected-as-inflation-eases.html
Canadian BNN is owned by Bell Media (owned by BCE). Since 2018, BNN became BNN Bloomberg through licensing & partnership with the US Bloomberg. BNN Bloomberg develops most of its own Canadian content but also carries many Bloomberg stories.
htt…
@Roy, simple explanations can be dangerous. But even with that risk, let me try.
Tokens are like prepaid store cards or chips on cruises/casinos. There are hundreds of unregulated crypto exchanges and most have their own tokens. That is what FTT wa…
SBF is/was very good at exploiting connections, real/imagined/implied. His parents are lawyers and/or political fund raisers (one CNBC regular fell for just that). His educational connections are also intriguing - the same place where the SEC Chair …
NBC is now calling the Senate for Democrats. Only the GA runoff on Dec 6 remains and NBC thinks that Democrat Warnock will win that.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/12/midterm-senate-elections-2022-democrats-keep-majority.html
Charlie Bilello also provides good and free info on Twitter. I have posted several tables/charts from him. They don't show up on MFO search because his name is within the links, often on the tables/charts themselves. One example is this post,
https:…
CRYPTO Intrigue and Crash. It started with a Twitter spat between Sam Bankman-Fried “SBF”/FTX and Changpeng Zhao “CZ”/Binance. There were prior frictions from SBF’s closeness to the DC lawmakers, his push for a crypto legislation that was disliked b…
Yes, most federal protections of 401k/403b carryover to their rollovers to T-IRAs. Some lawyerly type posters have argued that the courts/judges/lawyers can sort out funds within a mixed/tainted T-IRA, but then there is the risk that entire T-IRA ca…
There are good reasons to keep all 401k/403b rollovers into a separate T-IRA. It is OK to have all rollovers into one T-IRA. But putting them in T-IRAs with personal contributions can lead to complications in bankruptcy or lawsuits.
Basically, wide…
Giroux's recent reduction in his GE position may have been well timed (or not). GE has done fine lately with the rebound in cyclicals.
IMO, with the Nasdaq and crypto crashes (and money just vanishing like poof), investors may be shifting to more …
@AndyJ, FRED also has a chart on month-over-month changes in the CPI and that series is more noisy. But recent reductions are noticeable (your 4 data points can be verified).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Wj6y
CME FedWatch now is showing 50-25-25-25 to 5.00-5.25% in mid-2023.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
52-wk T-Bill (EOD) 4.59% (also the peak of the yield-curve).
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-c…
FRED CPI y-o-y data show that the CPI peaked in June and the latest report just confirms the downtrend. Component analyses point to high diesel/heating oil prices and related (e.g. commercial transportation) to be the lingering cause of inflation. T…
Binance walked away from FTX. Situation was hopeless after due diligence - customer funds were mishandled; the regulators looking into FTX.
Former billionaire (just a couple of days ago) SBF is reportedly bankrupt.
It is surprising that in this day and age, what happened could happen. Binance and FTX had a spat. CZ/Binance attacked SBF/FTX, threatened to liquidate holdings of FTX token FTT, caused a crisis of confidence in FTX and sort of a run on FTX. Then B…
Bassman is suggesting that with bond volatility MOVE high, the short-term MBS tranches (structured securities) are good deals now due to their high spreads (over Treasuries).
He also likes mREITs, highly leveraged pools of mortgage securities.
Rem…
Instead of being selective for TLH, it is better to maximize TLH and not let the opportunity slip by. Yes, some of the losses would be used up from gains in those (and other) positions when markets rebound. In some cases, different things may have b…
