Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
There are all kinds of speculations on Twitter.
Could be Russia to get out of any contract obligations.
Could be the US - there are videos circulating of Biden threatening NS1 & NS2 in Feb 2022 and other US spokesmen issuing statements on NS.
…
I may inject my typical cautions about ST-HY. Many think, mistakenly, what can go wrong in few months. Plenty, if credit conditions tighten. Then the rollover/re-fi of maturing HY becomes difficult. Defaults don't have to happen. Investors then wond…
@Derf, a minor bounce today will create more mess. The 3+ day low-June-test isn't over yet as Nasdaq Comp and R2000 haven't fallen through. So, I hope that today is either a huge up-day that will say low-test was a success (minor breaches are OK), o…
Bonds were so weak today, 9/26/22, that several allocation funds lost MORE than SP500. Here are several familiar ones:
Moderate-allocation BALFX, DODBX, FBALX, FPURX, VBINX, VGSTX, VSMGX, VWELX
Conservative-allocation TRRIX, VTINX, VSCGX, VWINX
…
Bond volatility ^MOVE (153.61) is now quite high. This may be a warning of some credit-event or financial storm - in the US or globally.
On the other hand, high ^VIX (32.26) and low/reasonable ^SKEW (120.01) is an interesting setup that is more lik…
The SP500 also fell below its mid-June low today, 9/26/22. The DJIA and DJ Transports did that last week, but new today was that DJIA was also in the bear market with -21% decline from January high (1st time in 2022). The Nasdaq Comp and small-cap R…
There may be some large CG distributions by mutual funds/OEFs this year. Some ETFs can have those too. There is a current article on this in the current Barron's by @LewisBraham.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/capital-gains-taxes-mutual-funds-down…
FXB is an ETF. It holds UK pounds and doesn't seem to be futures-based. ETFs are not insured (whether for stocks, bonds, currency). But it would have liquidation value.
ETNs don't hold anything but are just the IOUs of the sponsor.
https://connect…
@Sven, I got the gist of what you are trying to say. But the problem now is that stocks and bonds have high correlation. It used to be that only stocks and HY had high correlation.
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1573684964465549315?t=v0rN…
This has been a very difficult environment for the bond market. It is being called a bond crash and one has to go back to 1931 or 1949 to find similar times for bonds (see image link below from Twitter Link1). While equities are also suffering, ther…
A critical mid-JUNE LOW-TEST day today, 9/23/22. Transports are already below, DJIA is so at the open, watch the other indexes in this live chart.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p57120171090
Both …
A critical mid-JUNE LOW-TEST day today, 9/23/22. Transports are already below, DJIA is so at the open, watch the other indexes in this live chart.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p57120171090
Note the new tone in these new SEC settlements under Gensler. This may be 3rd or 4th where the settlement announcements includes admission of guilt by parties, or clear finger pointing by the SEC. This is different from the past practice of just set…
Good Q&A.
Portfolio being down in itself is not a ground for lawsuit.
Most brokerage account contracts require arbitration.
Brokers have safe-harbor protections if they follow KYC, Reg BI and fiduciary rules.
I already mentioned that the Survey was the most negative since 3/5/2009 (memorable SP500 at 666 on 3/9/09). Also this week was among the 5 worst sentiments since the Survey inception in 1987.
Being a contrarian indicator, the Survey is significan…
While the debate continues on whether the mid-June lows would hold for major indexes, the Transportation index today was below, and the DJIA barely above. Strange that more volatile Nasdaq Comp and SC R2000 are comfortably above.
So, if the future…
This happens when you sold some stock/ETF but the cash isn't available until T+2. The position screen may show the credit immediately but the amount isn't really available yet (and in your case, on the morning of the day of T-Bill auction).
A foolp…
Powell mentions current PCE & CPI only a couple of times, but referred to inflation-expectations several times.
Inflation-Expectations = Nominal Treasury Yield - TIPS Yield.
TIPS yield is also the real yield for the Treasury.
Media often refe…
I think real rates as in TIPS yields. They have risen across the board already but may go even higher.
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_…
Thanks, Yogi- I hadn't looked at that at Schwab... I'll be checking that out. How does one participate in the auctions?
OJ
I outlined the process for TIPS in the link below, but the procedure is very similar for other Treasuries.
https://ybbpersonal…
@Old_Joe, Treasuries can be bought commission-free at auctions or in the secondary market at major brokerages.
Only I-Bonds are limited to Treasury Direct.
Notes from above & Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference
Rates: Fed funds +75bps to 3.00-3.25% & more hikes to come; for reserve balances 3.15%; discount rate 3.25%. Real rates to rise across the board. Further +100 to +125 bps rise in fed fu…
@johnN, for buying Treasuries to be held to maturities, "too high" (for yield) doesn't matter. The rate is locked in at purchase.
BTW, prices this year are down for Treasury "funds". https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=SHY&compare=IEF,TLT&…
I'm trying to figure out what the allure here is for Treasuries versus a CD. What am I missing? Looking this morning in Schwab, one year for both is 4% . I have a CD maturing in a couple days and I'm wondering why people are choosing the bond over C…
This is an interim report on mutual fund to brokerage transitions (4 IRAs, 1 Trust).
The IRAs transferred easily and automatically for my wife and I. Both T-IRA and R-IRA transitioned together. All personal info transferred except one secondary pho…
These confidence scams are more complex & elaborate than the old millions-waiting-email scams, your-bank-is-calling spoofs, click-bait scams/phishing, check-washing scams.
Not picking up unknown calls, not clicking on any link in emails/texts/W…
To feel better, look at last 3 months - NOT bad! If this continues for just 2 more weeks, the Q3 statements could be encouraging. Reason is simple - we are still a few % above the mid-June lows. Of course, things can get ugly in 2 weeks too.
https:/…
For those interested in buying Treasuries at auctions,
26-week and shorter are every week.
Next 1-yr/52-week on 10/4/22 (Tu), 11/1/22 (Tu), etc
Next 2-year on 9/26/22 (M), 10/25/22 (Tu), etc
Next 5-year TIPS on 10/20/22 (Th), 12/22/22 (Th), etc
…
@hank, this is the Barron's 11/30/20 piece on BAMBX,
https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-2-9b-alternative-fund-that-actually-works-51606264740?mod=past_editions
A quick look: BAMBX cash levels reported by Yahoo, M*, Fido seem high but BlackRock doesn't report much cash. Discrepancy may be due to its nature - M* says that 50% of the portfolio is long and the rest market-neutral or long-short. So, that may be…
