Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Many variations are fund specific. Moderate-allocation (MA) funds may have many moving parts.
PRWCX isn't really a moderate-allocation funds (despite its classification as such my M* and others). It is capital-appreciation and has more of HY (65.19…
While there are formal definitions for allocation funds, my definition is any mix of stocks, bonds and alternatives. So, that is target-risk funds (static/strategic allocations CA, MA, AA, WA/IB), tactical allocation (TAA with variable allocations),…
@crash, I think that single-stock/bond ETFs are the latest bad idea from the ETF industry. It is known to throw stuff on the wall and see what sticks.
But the ETF wrapper does allow cash/non-margin a/c to use leverage and do shorting, not that tho…
There can be 2 sources of errors. (i) Mutual fund can adjust distributions including reclassifications of income, ST-CG, LT-CG, ROC. (ii) Broker can adjust cost-basis or reclassify ST/LT CGs or adjust wash-sales.
I investigated in order to determin…
Burry's portfolio may be $150-160 million. But he is mostly on the short side, is public about his moves and has made some good/lucky calls, so he makes news. In fact, Twitter is live with the news that he has liquidated 98% of his portfolio and thi…
Dr Ed Yardeni is generally bullish but is not a perma-bull. His data oriented website has some open access. He does built his own estimates bottoms up (like Scott Black) and I find that to be useful info.
Some trade violations occur when one buys and then sells before the trade settles to pocket the profit. Brokers think that it isn't fair to them. Others may occur in cash-accounts (i.e. without margin) and IRAs.
Well, look at profit jumps for global oil majors BP (triple?), XOM, CVX, etc. If +90% is busting through the roof, what would be descriptors for those other oil majors?
I think that much of Aramco profits first flow to MBS/Saudi Government and only…
Of course, Treasury auto-rolls at brokerages are at maturity into like Treasuries.
However, these single-Treasury ETFs roll into on-the-run Treasuries (i.e. most recently issued like Treasury) as soon as possible/practical. So, they are closest com…
JHG shows 30-day SEC yield as 2.66% for this ultra ST, FR/BL ETF. It invests in AAA tranches of CLOs. Can you explain what are you looking for?
https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/product/jaaa-aaa-clo-etf/
Renewable energy is the cover story in the current Barron's. LINK1 LINK2
COVER STORY, “Clean Energy’s Future Has Arrived/6 Stocks to Play the Rush for Renewable ENERGY”. AES, BE, FCX, LG Energy (S Korea), PLUG, RUN, etc; ETF TAN
TRANSITION from w…
There is an interview in the current Barron's from a China fan, LINK1 LINK2
Virginie MAISONNEUVE, Allianz Global. An interview focused on China (VM has followed China since the age of 5, has degree in Mandarin, has worked in China, specializes in…
@hank, the threatened penalty for keeping VG mutual fund account is $20/yr/fund holding. So, for someone holding 5 VG funds in an account, it is $20 x 5 = $100/yr for that account. Double that if both husband and wife have VG accounts. We actually h…
IF M* keeps the promise of maintaining the old M* Portfolio until the new M* Investor has similar or better capabilities, that may be a LONG time. I doubt that will happen. Reason is that the initial M* Investor didn't even have manual portfolio ent…
I have to get this done too. According to the Vanguard notice, the deadline is 9/30/22. I have avoided doing this as long as possible. Many posters at other sites said the process was simple, straightforward and easy. So, it is unclear what caused t…
There was a post at M* Discussions (long thread, post# 326, warning - needs lot of scrolling) yesterday that offered a ray of hope. https://community.morningstar.com/s/question/0D53o000066YnacCAC/does-anyone-else-feel-like-the-new-morningstar-inves…
Consider them in light of the broad net-zero targets globally. Several developed countries have net-zero target as 2050, China 2060, India 2070. This phased approach by VESGX seems sensible, and a bit on the aggressive side.
@Observant1, the high correlation between the market and A/D line is seen on the chart. But there can be short-term divergences (nonconforming). The A/D thrust days were mentioned earlier - another sign of cash on the sidelines burning hole in inves…
It is like the January-effect playing in Summer. Use anything SC, and IWM, IWO would be fine too.
Major indexes from 6/16/22 https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p16477435900
This US SPR status from Twitter is from June and you may look for updated data from the IEA. There was also some recent news on changing the law on SPR buys from the current bids-system to buying in the futures markets or with forward-contracts, as …
Sentiment indicators are contrarian.
AAII Sentiment has been negative most of Q1 and Q2, more so in Q2 and was the worst around mid-June. For its believers, these were the times to buy/add, or at least hold (not sell), as difficult as it may have …
Howard Marks - Which Way Now?
He suggests that rather than in/out or buy/sell, make portfolio adjustments according to own risk level.
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-video/market-commentary/insights-live-which-way-now
Corn crop uses lots of fertilizer. Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted fertilizer supplies too and many farmers are switching to soybean (that retain soil nutrients) and other crops rather than have low-yielding corn crops.
This seems an annoying phone thing. My Android phone assumes that if I add multiple spaces, I must have forgotten to add period and it auto-adds one. Phone auto-edit does lots of other silly things.
Today was a 92% up-volume day.
Others:
90% up-volume days: May 13, Jul 19, Aug 10
90% down-volume days: May 5, May 9, Jun 9, Jun 13, Jun 16
These so-called A/D thrust days have significance.
https://twitter.com/WalterDeemer/status/1557462958745190401
A good rally from mid-June lows, whatever it is called - Bear-rally or new up-move. It has now reached the target area that many had for this bounce. Very strong day today. Strange that people are cheering CPI of +8.5% (President erroneously said no…
I remember that missed MAPIX quarterly in 12/2014 and I explained it to others at M* at the time (-:). It was due to the weird US PFIC tax consideration that required mark-to-market (or, flow-through-earnings) of some foreign property and hard asset…
Now I always check the Order Status after the order is submitted. I have had instances when either the computer didn't catch/register the order or I just forgot to click the final Submit due to some distractions (phone call, door bell, wife calling …
@mcq, I have the SEC Form N-1A link bookmarked and the same link has been working for YEARS. The Form just keeps getting revised and updated. I didn't bother to save paper copies of the older versions. May be the SEC can provide older versions on re…
Funds follow the current SEC Form N-1A that has been revised over the years. This Form includes what the SEC thinks should be included by the funds now and probably doesn't include anything that would violate/contradict the letter or spirit of the I…
There is some story behind this.
So, John Hancock (with Canadian parent MFC) was surprised/blindsighted when its fund JCUAX / JCUIX's (AUM $571 million) subadvisor First Quadrant was acquired by Systematica, and big AMG has stakes in both advisory …
@BaluBalu, NONE were in the ball park of what you mentioned.
Barron's data was to 6/30/22 and all 5-yr performances were in the range 4.34-6.43%. A fair comparison may be with a simple 60-40 index-based target-risk fund such as VSMGX that had 4.95%…
@BaluBalu, there is a performance table in Barron's for typical 60-40 robo-advisor portfolios. As expected, due to higher cash %, Schwab lost less (but not the least) for YTD and 1-yr, but lagged for 3-yr and 5-yr.
Real reason for Schwab to have h…
I think that you change (nonqualified) annuity carriers through 1035 Exchange. It is not a complicated form but just another layer of paperwork beyond normal account/money transfer paperwork. I found a sample 1035 Exchange form from NY Life. Inherit…
