Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Guys,
Predicting the future is an impossible task. That’s especially true regarding investment projections. Current performance is no certain predictor of future success or failure. Good luck will exceed talent in most instances.
One obvious…
Hi Again Guys,
Thanks for your interest and comments.
My submittal is not my “thesis”. I was simply reporting data that women do very well indeed when they elect to invest in equities. The sources of that data are numerous indeed. Here is yet a…
Hi Ted,
I hesitated to post anticipating that the referenced work had been acknowledged earlier in this forum. I was right. I should have responded to my initial instincts.
Thank you for again posting these earlier references. You unfailingly r…
Hi msf,
Any tool for whatever purpose is dangerous if it is “misunderstood, misrepresented, and misapplied”. That’s as close to a universal truth as anything.
But a Monte Carlo analysis properly constructed, parametrically used, and carefully int…
Hi Davidrmoran,
Yes indeed, over a long timeframe I have contributed countless opinions and references to this site. So have you and many others. I find it hard, no impossible, not to actively participate. I suppose, integrated over my lifetime …
Hi Catch22,
We all share some characteristics. We all differ in many other characteristics. That helps to make an active marketplace. That’s terrific. It would be very dull otherwise. Of course these various options and interpretations might d…
Hi Hank,
I’ve never been fast, but I am persistent. Why not make the comparison by doing it in several easy steps, one for each fund? Make several visits to Fidelity:
https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/77958R100
Plenty of in…
Hi Hank,
Unlike you, I do know a few folks who are uncomfortable if they do not make very frequent trades. Sometimes even a few trades every day. Unlike them, I do follow a strategy vey similar to yours. I make very few trades each year.
What m…
Hi Guys,
I never have and l never will write a book on any subject, but I can generate some actionable one-line summaries on a few topics. Here is my contribution to a one-line investment wisdom compilation.
“Daily or weekly reviews of a portfoli…
Hi Guys,
“Will never be good at investing” might be too strong a projection to fit my conservative perspective, but it is a reasonable forecast given the consistently bad historical record registered by both professional and private investors in t…
Hi Guys,
This article is spot on-target. I suggest that you take a few minutes to absorb it. The bottom line quote from this short piece is:
“ The Dalbar data leads to the inescapable conclusion that most investors, this one included, are bungle…
Hi Guys,
This is not especially good news.
“We found a negative relationship between the sentiment of each of these three groups and future stock returns, and the relationship is statistically significant for Wall Street strat and individual inves…
Hi Charles,
As usual, you do the hard work and do it well. Thank you for helping to make this website so useful and easy. Here’s a Link to a Mac Davis song that contributes a little humor to the serious business of investing.
mac davis good look…
Hi Guys,
Making predictions is always hazardous duty, yet we do it all the time when making investment decisions.
In the referenced article, I especially liked observation 12: “ Effort put into a prediction may increase confidence more than accur…
Hi Guys,
I too agree that college is not for everyone, but it usually adds positively and considerably to income. Here is a Link to an informative chart that illustrates that point:
https://www.bls.gov/emp/chart-unemployment-earnings-education.h…
Hi Guys,
The Monte Carlo simulators that I referenced allows a user to examine the sensitivity of possible outcomes to various assumptions and portfolio strategies. They permit a user to play what-if scenarios quickly by doing thousands and thousa…
Hi Guys,
Retirement planning is a challenge because it is complex with many uncertainties. One absurdly simple rule is a dream; it just isn't so.
Given the complexity and uncertainties is a situation that almost demands a Monte Carlo simulation a…
Hi Guys,
Far too much data in these charts for a quick comment. Understanding it all is a true challenge.
To quote Aristotle: “ The more you know, the more you know you don't know.” That is an accurate summary of my understanding of the econo…
Hi Guys,
Earlier I posted that “ I choose to end this meaningless exchange immediately.”. Well, actually almost immediately. We all learn by experience. Our very participation in exchanges on this site illustrates that fact. Our participation is…
Hi davidrmoran,
I think you are just baiting me, but I will offer a very general reply:by study, by life experiences, by making decisions and executing those decisions. It is not worth any additional effort to respond to your ridiculous challenge.…
Hi davidrmoran,
I am a very simple man with simple rules for investing and life itself. The lines I quoted in my opening submittal nicely capture many of those simple rules. Sorry for repeating myself but:
You've got to know when to hold 'em
Kn…
Hi Guys,
The very fact that the song has survived and been popular for decades is testimony to the power in its message. It contains much practical wisdom. Interest in the song started slowly but gained momentum when this recording was released:
…
Hi Hank,
You’re spot on target with your observation. I thought my input was rather innocuous and would not receive any replies. I was dead wrong, but that didn’t surprise me as that is frequently the case.
Regardless, I thank everyone for their…
Hi davidrmoran,
Thanks for your contribution, but it falls far short. Here is a list of 1000 more or less popular sayings:
http://wisdomquotes.com/short-quotes/
Enjoy, but it is just a little overwhelming, just a small number so.
Best Wishes
Hi Guys,
There is NO single “right asset allocation”. There are far too many unknowns and variables. So it all depends on factors that are far too complicated to predict with any accuracy.
What to do? To get a general feel for possible outcomes…
Hi Hank,
Indeed, Grossman’s logic is confusing and not especially helpful.. He does a bad documentation job. To steal the format of one of your closing comments “(Grossman) be damned.”
Thanks for your contribution.
Best Wishes
Hi Guys,
Emotional investment decisions will ruin a portfolio. The numbers are uncertain but reflect history. While history will not exactly repeat itself, it will be as accurate a projection that exists. Go with the numbers. Here is a referenc…
Hi Guys,
Giving an opinion about the future is dangerous stuff. Forecasting the future can get us into a ton of trouble. However, we do it all the time when making an investment decision. Many of us have little talent in that arena, but exceptio…
Hi Guys,
I suspect the world would be a vastly different and poorer place without this list of imaginative folks who contributed just a little:
https://www.biographyonline.net/people/inspirational/positive-contribution.html
We each in our own way…
Hi Guys,
Go Army!!
For me, it was the best of times. I met and married my wife while serving. Patience and persistence are always major parts of a winning strategy.
Best Wishes and continued success and safety for our military everywhere and al…
Hi Guys,
The uncertainties in sequence of returns is a persistent issue to portfolio survival. The level of accceptable risk for an individual coupled to portfolio survival also is an issue. Some folks would be satisfied with a 95% success likelih…
Hi Guys,
Myths are resilient. They seem to be believed even when accumulating evidence doesn’t justify them. Such is the case with the sell in May flawed wisdom. Simply put, it is wrong. When investing, the historical database supports a buy an…
Hi Guys,
Monkeys don’t do too bad in the investing arena either. See the reference:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey-can-beat-the-market/#7ef5c442630a
From the article: “ Burton Malkiel claimed in his bestselling book…
Hi Guys,
The data suggests that time in the markets is probably the biggest factor to end of period wealth. Increase the time period and the likelihood of a positive outcome increases from a 50/50 probability to a near 100% probability. Please se…
Hi Guys,
No real,secrets here. The current performance is a sample of and a simple regression-to-the-mean. It likely happens to all of us including the very talented and/or lucky at some point in our investing careers. Personally, I am neither,…
Hi Guys,
It’s true that only 24% of graduates taking the test got all 4 questions correct, but another 33% got 3 of the test questions right. That might be somewhat disappointing, but it’s not too bad either. The graduates out scored the other gr…
Hi Derf,
The forecasters timeframe is not an easy question with a single provided answer. Timeframes vary greatly and are often not specified. However, as a general observation, the forecaster’s timeframes are one year and under.
One indication …
Hi MikeM,
Market timing is a very challenging game with far more losers than winners. I suppose some winners exist, but I also suppose that these rare winners become losers over an extended timeframe.
I am definitely not a market timer. I can …
