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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Debt Limit Drama Heats Up
    I would like to know how anyone can sense the possibility of a solution if you can’t find a half dozen rational house repugs to vote with the Dems.
    Political posturing and pontification about fiscal responsibility will prevail during this saga.
    If the U.S. defaulted on incurred debt, there would be significant repurcussions.
    A solution for this manufactured crisis will be reached because there is no alternative.
    I know this may not be very reassuring when considering the current political landscape...
    Observant1 in Other Investing
  • John Templeton
    @Old_Joe - He was an investor, not a saint. But I agree with you that religion’s a funny thing. Templeton wore his religion well. Was it genuine? I believe so, but who knows? And the comments above about Bhopal haven’t escaped me. I suspect that today (50 years later) he might be scoffed at for being so overtly religious. Different periods and cultures.
    Among the giants that appeared often on Rukeyser’s show in the ‘70s & ‘80s were Templeton, Peter Lynch and Henry Kaufman. What Templeton lent was a belief / message that over long periods individual investors would be rewarded for saving and investing for the future. In the long run the country and mankind worldwide would prosper and investments in equities were a road to participation in that wealth - a way to raise the living standards of the masses. Of course, it hasn’t turned out that way for various sundry reasons. But that was the message, and I think he really believed it.
    Geez - Have another book about Templeton loaded into my Audible library. Generally fall asleep nights absorbing either finance or astro-physics, both of which I find intriguing. Have listened to Howard Marks a lot and to a nice biography on Buffett. I try to glean what wisdom I can from any source, even though I might loath some aspects of their lives.
    PS - Thanks for commenting.
    hank in Fund Discussions
  • John Templeton
    My first brokerage a/c in the 1970s was at Merrill Lynch and I was paying almost 6-7% commission per trade, 12-14% for a roundtrip. I had to call my assigned broker and he was hard to get hold of. As his office was on the way to work, I will just write a note on transactions, and dropped it off with his secretary. Then Schwab, Fido etc changed the investing landscape - first the touchtone phone trading (telebrokers - spell check doesn't even recognize it now; most brokers had a limit on "free" phone quotes"), then came the web-trading, and finally, the commission-free trading now. That was a long journey.
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Fund Discussions
  • Precious metals are breaking out
    So much depends on your perspective. These types of investments aren’t intended for everyone. Think of gold as “a hedge against the unexpected.” Almost by definition, “the unexpected” is that which is very unlikely to occur (political chaos, hyperinflation, asteroid strike, nuclear war).
    @Jan is correct. Long term, gold shouldn’t perform as well as investments in solid growth companies. That said, precious metals tend to run to the extremes on both the up-side and down-side. As fertile ground for speculators they might be attractive if you have the stomach. If you are unable to find even a 3%-5% spot in your portfolio for that kind of hedge or speculative gambit, no problem. Life goes on.
    Yes, I agree, there are obstacles to owning / trading physical gold. I’d not want that hassle. But there are, as I’m sure you are aware, funds that invest in it in various ways. Just $50 on a grocery store visit? I rarely escape for under $150. A halfway decent bottle of single malt runs $40-50 alone.
    BTW - The OP was by @rono who has tracked the precious metals forever. Rono’s forgotten more about the metals than most of us ever knew. I tend to agree with his point of view. However, making such predictions about gold involves looking at the technical charts as well as trying to anticipate correctly things like geopolitics, inflation, Federal Reserve policies and how other asset classes that vie for assets will perform going forward. And, Oh I almost forgot …. the herd instincts and behavior of investors.
    hank in Other Investing
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    Perhaps we should look into @LB article on Barron’s with respect to active foreign funds/ETFs. Thanks to @yogibearbull, he has summarized these funds.
    Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
    (Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2023/Q1 and YTD to 3/31/23)
    Pg L3: After lagging for several years, the INTERNATIONAL/GLOBAL funds are relatively cheap (value cheaper than growth) and may outperform. Use risk control strategies – lower SDs, favorable U/D CR, etc. For the US investors in foreign funds, a strong DOLLAR has been a headwind. OEFs: AIVBX, BISAX, FISMX, FMIJX, GQGPX, RNWOX, SGENX, SIGIX, TBGVX; ETFs: ACWV, EFA, EFAV, EFG, EFV, EEM, HDG, HEFA, VIGI. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Pg L8: The US-China DECOUPLING will take a while. China has also been tough on its big techs. But small-caps have escaped the watchful eyes of the Chinese government. OEFs: FHKCX, MCDFX, MCHFX, MCSMX, RNWOX, SIGIX, SGOVX; ETFs: ASHR, CHIQ, CNYA, CQQQ, CXSE, EWH, FXI, GXC, KBA, KWEB, MCHI, PGJ. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Pg L9: GROWTH funds are rebounding, but be selective. Some former big techs have fallen off the growth wagon and some energy companies have joined. Large-cap growth (IVW, MGK, RPG, SCHG) has been outperforming small/mid-cap growth (IJT, RZG). The OEFs mentioned are HCAIX, TRBCX, VWIGX.
    EXTRA: FAITH-BASED funds cover a wide variety and several are rebounding. Vatican published its investment guidelines in November 2022 that also included responsible ESG. Private direct-indexing is a growing area. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Fund news from elsewhere in Barron’s (Forthcoming Part 2).
    Pg 13, FUNDS. MUNI MONEY-MARKET funds (tax-exempt) with near juicy 4% yields are attractive. This is a tiny area with $130 billion AUM only vs $500 billion AUM pre-GFC-2008, and $5 trillion AUM for taxable money-market funds. These invest in floating-rate munis (VRDNs) that reset rates weekly according to the SIFMA rates. Typically, the SIFMA rates are 40-80% of (taxable) fed fund rates, but they are elevated now due to redemptions to pay taxes (so, these high rates may not last beyond April). These funds partner with BANKS to provide daily and weekly liquidity guarantees. By definition, their DURATION is considered to be the rate reset period regardless of the maturities of the underlying munis (so, don’t get alarmed when looking at their holdings and maturities). Mentioned are FTEXX / FTCXX, SWTXX, VMSXX, VTMXX. (Their overall structure and rate resetting process seem complicated and may have unknown risks)
    Pg 24, INCOME INVESTING. Selected REITs are attractive after their recent battering. Their earnings have been cut but the SP5500 earnings remain OK (so, the REITs client companies are doing fine). A FED pause will benefit the REITs, but RECESSION won’t, so it’s time only to nibble in REITs. Attractive REITs are industrial (PLD, ADC, GLPI), residential, self-storage, data-centers. Avoid REITs for offices and malls (big/regional or strip/local). Several publicly traded REITs are more attractive than private real estate (that suffer from lagging mark-to-market; negative news on monthly/quarterly redemption limits for several nontraded-REITs).
    Pg L33: In 2023/Q1 (SP500 +7.50%): Among general equity funds, best were LC-growth +13.52%, multi-cap-growth +11.35%, and worst were small-cap-value +0.77%, mid-cap-value +0.84%, equity-income +0.95%; ALL general equity categories were positive AGAIN. Among other equity funds, the best were sc & tech +18.80%, telecom +11.66%, global large-cap-growth +11.10%, and worst were financials -7.77%. Among fixed-income funds, domestic long-term FI +2.55%, world income +2.96%; ALL FI categories were positive too AGAIN (FI isn’t very refined in Lipper mutual fund categories listed in Barron’s). So, good 2022/Q4 (value shined) & 2023/Q1 (LC growth shined).
    LINK
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60940/barron-s-funds-quarterly-2023-q1-april-10-2023#latest
    Sven in Fund Discussions
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Thanks for commenting @Observant1 - I appreciate links so much more when folks add a personal comment. Generally, the only time I’ll watch a linked video is if the poster has commented on it.
    Benz’s “Buckets” conjure up an image of somebody in a Bonanza - like western walking to and from the well. Prefer “allocation model” myself, although the label doesn’t matter much. In both personal and financial affairs I’m usually better off having a disciplined approach. So I’d be lost without my allocation model written down and securely stored among the digital archives. Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on viewpoint) mine is a whole lot more complex than Benz’s. It’s evolved over nearly 25 years in retirement as my knowledge base has grown, opportunities available have multiplied and age has advanced. I’d hate being still crammed into the same “bucket(s)” today as a quarter-century ago.
    Benz is no Einstein, but she appears generally well versed on the fund landscape as one would expect from Morningstar. I think 25-30 years back when I was in the process of ditching the Templeton assigned “advisor” (commanding a 4%+ front load) and developing my own self directed investment approach Benz’s advice would have been both stimulating and helpful. Today, not much. I think she’s appealing mainly to inexperienced investors.
    Some pertinent thoughts / observations:
    - Benz leads off characterizing bonds as a portfolio-wrecking “torpedo” in 2022. An interesting analogy, though I might have said “weighty anchor”. Equities could have have sunk your investment sloop even faster and driven it deeper than bonds last year, depending, of course, on which ones.
    - Benz suggests holding 1-2 years worth of cash reserve to “ride out” rough stretches of the market. Surely this is optimistic. While not one to hold a lot of cash myself, in reading others’ posts over the years it appears that her suggested 1-2 years worth of cash reserve is on the low end. Some well-versed investors here who subscribe to the “rainy day” approach have been known to hold anywhere from 3 to 5 years’ supply of cash to draw on in event of a prolonged bear market - a more realistic time frame. (Either you have religion or you don’t.)
    - Just 3 buckets seems rather basic - actually pretty simplistic.
    - The contents of Benz’s buckets appear to slosh around a bit. She mentions international funds “might be” an asset to include today. OK. Probably good advice. But a staunch “bucketeer” might well adhere to static allocations, periodically rebalancing. Adding / deleting components would appear tantamount to going off the reservation. She suggests some precious metals (now that they’ve appreciated significantly). Consider that there have been periods as brief as 2 or 3 years over which precious metals funds have fallen 50% or more. How many novice investors (to whom she seems to be appealing) would have the staying power to hold on to to an asset like that near the bottom?
    - She’s fond of index funds. If one has a 10-25 year time horizon that’s probably great advice. Over longer periods lower fees should translate into better outcomes. But it’s not that simple. First, today’s investors generally have shorter time horizons / are prone to hold funds for shorter periods than a generation ago. Timing decisions might well impact returns more than fees. Secondly, the advice to invest in indexes ignores the extent to which some of those may have become distorted / overpriced after decades of outperformance. For example, the cap-weighted S&P 500 might not be the best place to invest today. Some knowledgeable investors actually maintain small short positions on it, wagering, in effect, that other market areas will outperform.
    hank in Fund Discussions
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
    (Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2023/Q1 and YTD to 3/31/23)
    Pg L3: After lagging for several years, the INTERNATIONAL/GLOBAL funds are relatively cheap (value cheaper than growth) and may outperform. Use risk control strategies – lower SDs, favorable U/D CR, etc. For the US investors in foreign funds, a strong DOLLAR has been a headwind. OEFs: AIVBX, BISAX, FISMX, FMIJX, GQGPX, RNWOX, SGENX, SIGIX, TBGVX; ETFs: ACWV, EFA, EFAV, EFG, EFV, EEM, HDG, HEFA, VIGI. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Pg L8: The US-China DECOUPLING will take a while. China has also been tough on its big techs. But small-caps have escaped the watchful eyes of the Chinese government. OEFs: FHKCX, MCDFX, MCHFX, MCSMX, RNWOX, SIGIX, SGOVX; ETFs: ASHR, CHIQ, CNYA, CQQQ, CXSE, EWH, FXI, GXC, KBA, KWEB, MCHI, PGJ. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Pg L9: GROWTH funds are rebounding, but be selective. Some former big techs have fallen off the growth wagon and some energy companies have joined. Large-cap growth (IVW, MGK, RPG, SCHG) has been outperforming small/mid-cap growth (IJT, RZG). The OEFs mentioned are HCAIX, TRBCX, VWIGX.
    EXTRA: FAITH-BASED funds cover a wide variety and several are rebounding. Vatican published its investment guidelines in November 2022 that also included responsible ESG. Private direct-indexing is a growing area. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Fund news from elsewhere in Barron’s (Forthcoming Part 2).
    Pg 13, FUNDS. MUNI MONEY-MARKET funds (tax-exempt) with near juicy 4% yields are attractive. This is a tiny area with $130 billion AUM only vs $500 billion AUM pre-GFC-2008, and $5 trillion AUM for taxable money-market funds. These invest in floating-rate munis (VRDNs) that reset rates weekly according to the SIFMA rates. Typically, the SIFMA rates are 40-80% of (taxable) fed fund rates, but they are elevated now due to redemptions to pay taxes (so, these high rates may not last beyond April). These funds partner with BANKS to provide daily and weekly liquidity guarantees. By definition, their DURATION is considered to be the rate reset period regardless of the maturities of the underlying munis (so, don’t get alarmed when looking at their holdings and maturities). Mentioned are FTEXX / FTCXX, SWTXX, VMSXX, VTMXX. (Their overall structure and rate resetting process seem complicated and may have unknown risks)
    Pg 24, INCOME INVESTING. Selected REITs are attractive after their recent battering. Their earnings have been cut but the SP5500 earnings remain OK (so, the REITs client companies are doing fine). A FED pause will benefit the REITs, but RECESSION won’t, so it’s time only to nibble in REITs. Attractive REITs are industrial (PLD, ADC, GLPI), residential, self-storage, data-centers. Avoid REITs for offices and malls (big/regional or strip/local). Several publicly traded REITs are more attractive than private real estate (that suffer from lagging mark-to-market; negative news on monthly/quarterly redemption limits for several nontraded-REITs).
    Pg L33: In 2023/Q1 (SP500 +7.50%): Among general equity funds, best were LC-growth +13.52%, multi-cap-growth +11.35%, and worst were small-cap-value +0.77%, mid-cap-value +0.84%, equity-income +0.95%; ALL general equity categories were positive AGAIN. Among other equity funds, the best were sc & tech +18.80%, telecom +11.66%, global large-cap-growth +11.10%, and worst were financials -7.77%. Among fixed-income funds, domestic long-term FI +2.55%, world income +2.96%; ALL FI categories were positive too AGAIN (FI isn’t very refined in Lipper mutual fund categories listed in Barron’s). So, good 2022/Q4 (value shined) & 2023/Q1 (LC growth shined).
    LINK
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Fund Discussions
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    Good article from Schwab that Tom Mandell linked
    https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/why-go-long-when-short-term-bonds-yield-more
    Recommends intermediate bonds
    Authers at Bloomberg has a very interesting article pointing out that the hopes that bank crisis will precipitate Fed easing also seem to require recession. Not good for earnings!
    He thinks the potential for that scenario is overdone, and the Fed could continue to raise rates to control inflation while continuing QT.
    "In the short term, the risks are that markets will continue to shift away from the position of the last few weeks, and perhaps begin to put some credence in the Fed’s claim that it won’t be cutting rates this year. A barrage of data that is about to hit for the beginning of the month should enlighten us further. While the banks’ crisis might not hurt economic activity that much, tighter money can be expected to have a big effect, with a lag. The most important place to look for that could be the corporate sector.
    As Torsten Slok, chief US economist of Apollo Management, shows in this chart, capital expenditures (capex) have started falling. That can be expected to have a negative multiplier effect over time, which would be good for defeating inflation, but not so great for economic activity, or corporate revenues and profits:
    And on the subject of profits, the latest National Income Profit Accounts data, compiled as part of the process of calculating gross domestic product, came out last week. This is a measure of corporate profits that eschews the smoothing that goes with the GAAP accounting used to publish companies’ accounts. They’re typically published, as below, with adjustments both for inventory valuation (IVA) and capital consumption (CCAdj). Over time, NIPA profits and S&P 500 GAAP profits do tend to move roughly together, because there are limits to the creative accounting that companies can do. But in the short term they can differ. It’s therefore not a great sign that NIPA profits took a dip in the final quarter of last year:
    There are reasons for concern about the remaining three quarters of this year, many of which are not yet reflected in market pricing. For now, however, it looks as though the damage done by the banks has been overpriced. Absent big surprises in the new data — or fresh external shocks like the Opec+ agreement to limit oil production that spurred a rise of 8% for Brent crude at the Asian opening — it’s best to brace in the near term for bond yields to rise from where they are now, while more speculative investments give up ground. "
    sma3 in Other Investing
  • Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
    Particularly now we can get 5% risk free.
    I think using your personal rate of inflation helps to eliminate some of the angst about real vs nominal interest rates.
    If you don't buy a car, and you own your house, health care, taxes and food and energy inflation are the biggest problem that can't be controlled with lifestyle changes for retirees.
    It helps a lot to live in a state (MA) where health care institutions and MDs have a hard time refusing to take Medicare. It is not illegal but there are so many retirees on the Cape no physician or hospital could survive refusing Medicare, except maybe plastic surgeons.
    Of course we pay for it in other ways, ie taxes. 5% state income tax, and our real estate taxes have increased 10% YOY
    sma3 in Other Investing
  • ETNs in 2023
    Surprisingly, there hasn’t been much discussion or analysis of ETNs (Exchange Traded Notes) in the aftermath of Credit Suisse disaster.
    The ETNs are DEBT obligations of the ISSUER/sponsor. So, the health of the issuer is critical for the ETN holders. Yet, in all of the discussions of Credit Suisse issues, its ETN exposure wasn’t even mentioned. This even as in the UBS takeover/rescue of Credit Suisse, almost $17 billion of AT1/CoCo debt was extinguished by government order (a credit-event was declared) when that was ahead of the common stock (that finally had some residual value). But because it wasn’t an outright bankruptcy, the Credit Suisse ETNs should be OK for now as the debt obligation of Credit Suisse will become the debt obligations of UBS.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/161485/#Comment_161485
    Another risk of ETNs is that their CREATION/REDEMPTION mechanisms may be disrupted by the issuer, or the ETN may be discontinued/liquidated in what may be very UNTIMELY for the ETN holders. Some ETNs are +/- 2x or even +/- 3x that further magnify risks (they escaped the recent ETF reforms to limit LEVERAGE).
    Credit Suisse US ETNs include those for gold, silver, oil, MLP with AUM of under $500 million (tickers for Credit Suisse related stuff are avoided here as those may change). UBS also has ETNs related to equity and HY bonds with AUM under $200 million. It is unclear if UBS will maintain Credit Suisse ETNs.
    No news is good news?
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/985/thread
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Fund Discussions
  • UBS Agrees to Buy Credit Suisse for More Than $3 Billion
    UBS Group AG agreed to take over its longtime rival Credit Suisse Group AG for more than $3 billion, pushed into the biggest banking deal in years by regulators eager to halt a dangerous decline in confidence in the global banking system. The deal between the twin pillars of Swiss finance is the first megamerger of systemically important global banks since the 2008 financial crisis when institutions across the banking landscape were carved up and matched with rivals, often at the behest of regulators.
    The Swiss government said it would provide more than $9 billion to backstop some losses that UBS may incur by taking over Credit Suisse. The Swiss National Bank also provided more than $100 billion of liquidity to UBS to help facilitate the deal.
    Swiss authorities were under pressure to make the deal happen before Asian markets opened for the week. The urgency on the part of regulators was prompted by an increasingly dire outlook at Credit Suisse, according to one of the people familiar with the matter. The bank faced as much as $10 billion in customer outflows a day last week, this person said.
    The sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank earlier this month prompted investors globally to scour for weak spots in the financial system. Credit Suisse was already first on many lists of troubled institutions, weakened by years of self-inflicted scandals and trading losses. Swiss officials, along with regulators in the U.S., U.K. and European Union, who all oversee parts of the bank, feared it would become insolvent this week if not dealt with, and they were concerned crumbling confidence could spread to other banks.
    An end to Credit Suisse’s nearly 167-year run marks one of the most significant moments in the banking world since the last financial crisis. It also represents a new global dimension of damage from a banking storm started with the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank earlier this month.
    Unlike Silicon Valley Bank, whose business was concentrated in a single geographic area and industry, Credit Suisse is a global player despite recent efforts to reduce its sprawl and curb riskier activities such as lending to hedge funds.
    Credit Suisse had a half-trillion-dollar balance sheet and around 50,000 employees at the end of 2022, including more than 16,000 in Switzerland.
    UBS has around 74,000 employees globally. It has a balance sheet roughly twice as large, at $1.1 trillion in total assets. After swallowing Credit Suisse, UBS’s balance sheet will rival Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG in asset size.
    The above is excerpted from a current article in The Wall Street Journal, and was edited for brevity.
    Old_Joe Old_Joe in Other Investing
  • Federal Reserve’s Path Is Murkier After Bank Blowup
    @crash
    That one on Kaalawai Ave looks like just the ticket for me and my wife to escape New England winters. Can you run over and check it out for us?
    Giggle. LOL.
    Back up in Pittsfield and up by the VT line, they're still digging out. Tomorrow's St. Patrick's. Already. Beware the Ides of March. A day late.

    Crash Crash in Other Investing
  • Federal Reserve’s Path Is Murkier After Bank Blowup
    @crash
    That one on Kaalawai Ave looks like just the ticket for me and my wife to escape New England winters. Can you run over and check it out for us?
    sma3 in Other Investing
  • US Plans Emergency Measures To Backstop Banks after SVB
    This article goes into more detail than I have seen elsewhere about the politics of the 2018 changes in the banking regs that allowed SVB to escape regulation, and how easily the startups etc could have protected their funds. It also implies that SVB prevented them from using multiple other banks ( with InfraSweep).
    https://prospect.org/economy/2023-03-13-silicon-valley-bank-bailout-deregulation/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
    We still dont know how many of these accounts were really “ small businesses”. Roku apparently had half a billion dollars on deposit without any protection
    Why should we bail out Roku?
    I'm with ya.
    Crash Crash in Other Investing
  • US Plans Emergency Measures To Backstop Banks after SVB
    This article goes into more detail than I have seen elsewhere about the politics of the 2018 changes in the banking regs that allowed SVB to escape regulation, and how easily the startups etc could have protected their funds. It also implies that SVB prevented them from using multiple other banks ( with InfraSweep).
    https://prospect.org/economy/2023-03-13-silicon-valley-bank-bailout-deregulation/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
    We still dont know how many of these accounts were really “ small businesses”. Roku apparently had half a billion dollars on deposit without any protection
    Why should we bail out Roku?
    sma3 in Other Investing
  • DJIA Closes Negative YTD (February 21)
    After a nearly 700 point drop Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended in negative territory for 2023 at the close.
    YTD Returns - As of 12:30 PM Wednesday, February 22
    DJIA + 0.22%
    S&P 500 + 4.24%
    NASDAQ + 10.13%
    (Numbers from Bloomberg)
    One fund of recent interest here, ARKK, was ahead by more than 34% YTD going into today’s session. It fell back by more than 6% today. The fact that any fund could move like this one has over the past year might indicate how crazy the investing landscape has gotten. (Numbers from Bloomberg)
    Just me or do geo-politics seem increasingly related to the market problems? Russia / Ukraine for sure. But now, just as China’s economy is emerging from its covid-related pullback, it appears relations with the U.S. are deteriorating. The balloon of course. But a lot more going on from my readings, including what appears to be China becoming more supportive of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. If that’s not enough, North Korea fired off a barrage of its new solid fueled ICBMs over the weekend - one landing in the Pacific within sight of Japan. The solids are superior to liquid fueled rockets in that they’re easier to hide and can be launched without any prep on very short notice.
    And you want to invest?
    hank in Other Investing
  • What to do?
    @BenWP
    >> I don't know what happened to DEESX, either.
    My post and phrasing were about CAPE and CAPE only.
    As for DSEEX, the M* chart for DSEEX
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/dseex/chart
    shows its growth from end October 2013 to yesterday to be >203%, compared w SP500's 181%. For ytd it's >13% vs <8%.
    That's all. Not making any other claims about it. Don't hold it anymore. 5y and 1y show it lags SP500 somewhat.
    davidrmoran davidrmoran in Fund Discussions
  • What to do?
    @davidrmoran: I don't know what happened to DEESX, either. I see from the charts that it reached its nadir on 3/22/2020, having fallen some 7 percentage points more than FXAIX at that point. It never really caught up and I can't devise a chart that shows it outperforming FXAIX. Maybe at exactly 9.5 years, as you say. I wrongly assumed as a shareholder of DSEEX that the bonds would serve as ballast in a down market; it seems the opposite was true and that the "secret bond sauce" appeared to accelerate the move downward. I was a CAPE fan and said so on MFO. I sold, disillusioned. Fortunately, MOAT has proven itself over the long haul. I've traded it, but have never been out. MOTI and SMOT, which adopt a similar "moat" methodology, have been welcome additions in recent months.
    BenWP BenWP in Fund Discussions
  • What to do?
    @MikeM, I don't know and can't easily uncover what the heck happened w CAPE as of 4/22, but I am sure someone here knows. DSEEX has still outperformed FXAIX for 9.5y and also ytd :) --- but not, as others would, or will, instantly point out, for various stints in between. (QQQ likewise looks appealing at 10y and ytd, not quite so much in between.)
    I wasn't being facetious in rhetorically posing the question of where the breadth sweet spot is. Or can reliably be said to be, if we seek investment goals and guidelines. Some of the above apples-oranges (categories) objections are silly, but someone else also mentioned subsets of sets; and so I began to wonder whether everything in SCHD was in SP500 and everything in SP500 in VONE, and everything in VONE in VT.
    For the first it turns out not, but close, so far as I had the energy to parse. Specifically, if you exclude SCHD's last 25 or so holdings (out of ~100), which contribute a minuscule amount to performance, you do see that the remainder appear to be in SP500 (I'm not 100% positive about this, as I got tired searching within the long columns). SCHD applies a seriously delimiting quantified quality criterion. Could there be an SCHD for the VONE universe? (For some periods, of course, that is sort of what VONG and VONV do.)
    Unappreciated (why I also mentioned comparative UI) was the 'leveling' effect the SCHD criteria appear to exert. But maybe UI is arguably overvalued as well. Gustibus.
    davidrmoran davidrmoran in Fund Discussions
  • What to do?
    + @larryB
    I can remember not to many years ago, all the comparison and clear winner from that comparison was CAPE over the S&P 500. It was the clear winner - until it wasn't. I'm sure many bought into CAPE high and sold when it faltered. The key is having the conviction to stay with one scheme over another. Value and dividend stocks will have their day, same as growth or tech or using the CAPE methodology. Isn't the S&P500 a collection of all those sub sets?
    MikeM MikeM in Fund Discussions