If you have the same after-tax starting value at $78K, then a percentage-based tax is a linear operator. It doesn't matter if you double the money first and then apply the tax, or apply the tax and then double the money.

Correct. This addresses the question: is one better off contributing now to a Roth or to a traditional IRA? In that situation what matters is whether the future tax rate will be higher, lower, or equal to the current tax rate.
I was addressing a slightly different question: does allocation between tax free and tax deferred accounts matter? For that question, it doesn't matter what tax rates you might have been subject to in contributing to the Roth. You've already made your bed. Now you have to lie in it and allocate investments across whatever dollars you've put into the different accounts, traditional and Roth.
You are suggesting that rapid growth of tax-deferred moneys will move some of those assets into a higher future tax bracket vs. the future tax bracket all of those dollars would have been with slower growth. Perhaps. Bear in mind that tax brackets are adjusted for inflation, so the growth rate of import is the excess growth over inflation, not total growth. Still, one hopes with more aggressive investments, that this will be significant.
When one speaks of being in a higher bracket at retirement, one is looking at the size of RMDs. The first dollar gets taxed at one rate determined by considering all other ordinary income and then looking at the marginal rate. Subsequent RMD dollars get taxed at that rate or a higher rate if the RMD extends through brackets. Hence my assumption that the total RMD is taxed at the same marginal rate in retirement.
That's not always true, as you say (below). Often it is. Consider an individual, age 73, in the 22% bracket excluding RMDs. If that individual falls at the top of the bracket, virtually all RMD dollars will be taxed at 24%, whether from fast or slow growing investments. If that individual falls at the bottom of the bracket, they'll have nearly $55K of "space" to fill. They'd need a T-IRA of almost $1.5M for the RMD to exceed that (age divisor is 26.5). Put them at the midway point and the T-IRA would need to be around $750K before the tax brackets mattered.
The 24% bracket is even wider. The bracket where RMD size is most likely to matter is the 12% bracket. That's only $36K wide. If one is at the midpoint in that bracket, then a $500K T-IRA will have an RMD touching the next bracket. And since that next bracket at 22% is a whopping 10% higher, it becomes more important here to try to keep every last RMD dollar out of that bracket.
So it really depends on the situation. Personally, the part of the RMD trap that I'm more concerned about is having RMDs greater than needed for expenses. This is where Roth conversions years before retirement help. And for this purpose, it is better to keep slower growing assets in T-IRAs.

This equivalence only holds true if you assume the tax rate at withdrawal remains constant. In the real world, if doubling your traditional account pushed you into a higher tax bracket in retirement, the "Traditional Doubles" scenario would result in a lower after-tax total.

A place where slower growing assets can be even more beneficial is in HSAs. Suppose someone has been healthy (so has had few medical expenses during accumulation phase) and has a sizeable HSA. Then it is possible even in retirement that total medical expenses will not exceed the HSA value. If that happens, the excess dollars rather than being tax-free can get taxed as ordinary income upon withdrawal.

Not sure why you picked a scenario with both traditional and Roth at same $78K, who actually has that ratio?

The ratios don't matter. I just wanted to provide a concrete example. 100/0 or 0/100 wouldn't work when the question was how to allocate between non-zero T-IRA and Roth accounts. 50/50 is a simple split and it facilitated assuming 50% of the money was invested one way and 50% another.
Had I used a 20/80 split between accounts with the same investment assumption (half fast growth, half no growth), then the 20% account would have been invested one way along with 3/8 of the 80% account. The remaining 5/8 of the 80% account (i.e. half the total assets) would have been invested the other way. Same result, but I'd lose people with all the fractions and percentage.

The Week in Charts (06/30/25)
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:20 Topics
01:14 The Market Makes Fools of the Soothsayers
03:00 There Is No Impossible in Markets
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10:20 3 Rate Cuts in 2025?
14:45 The Most Important Jobs Indicator to Watch
17:47 An Inflection Point in the Housing Market
23:14 The Office Conversion Boom
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Blog

- Trying to get ahead by cutting down on expenses is a loser’s game

Trying is one thing... succeeding is a other!
I have continually lowered my expenses in retirement by having the time to pursue cost saving incentives that I had little time to chase while working.
Some examples:
- Homesteading property taxes
- Playing the internet/cable provider game
- Understanding ACA/HSA insurance incentives
- Learning & understanding tax code
- 1099E - rental income
- 1099C - Self Employment income and related deductions (HSA/Insurance premiums/TIRA)
- Traveling at low cost times

- A dwelling under 1250 sq. feet represents a meager existence / lack of success in life
- Driving a 10-15 year old (rusty) vehicle also represents a lack of success in life

Umm... no, downsizing your home and extending your vehicle's longevity are two great ways to lower expenses.

Placed order to sell RLBGX in HSa.
Transferring HSa from employer's provider to my brokerage in a few weeks.
In-kind transfers are prohibited.

@stillers,
Please indulges us with your "pay no tax" strategies.
With your RMDs being 16 years away and retirement starting in 2012 or at age 45, I am all ears.
Congratulations.

Thanks!
Let me correct your dates. Sorry if my post was confusing on that!:
Retired in 2012 at Age 56
RMDs will start in 2029 at Age 73 (unless gov't pushes back further)
Paid ZERO FIT 2013-2024 (12 years)
Plan to (and very likely will) pay ZERO FIT/SIT 2025-2028 (4 years)
Total ZERO FIT/SIT period (16 years)
Strategy was pretty simple (but takes a while to explain!):
Starting with first professional employments in 1980, got as much $ as humanly possible into tax-deferred accounts. We were DINKS, Double Income, No Kids.
ONLY worked for companies that had defined benefit pension plans as a bene. Collectively had four professional jobs and four defined benefit pension plans between the two of us between 1980-2012. Annually maxed out 401k's and 403b's and all other investable monies went to Roth IRAs.
Rolled all possible Pension monies to IRAs upon termination of service to control when we receive income. Final employers provided lovely parting gifts of Retiree Health Insurance, Retiree Dental Insurance and a RHSA (Retiree Health Savings Account). Retired with just enough $ outside the umbrella (in taxable a/c's) to bridge income gap in years until early SS began for both at Age 62 in 2018.
Started taking (effectively) tax-free IRA w/d's in 2013 to fully defray annual income gaps and/or maximize tax savings. Currently, SS and remaining pensions (that could not be rolled) cover all but a couple grand of annual living expenses.
98% of liquid net worth is still in IRAs and only 2% is in taxable accounts. We have generated negligible taxable income other than early SS starting in 2018 and remaining Pensions that weren't rolled starting in 2013. We have ALWAYS since 2013 kept total taxable income UNDER the taxable MFJ threshold.
And to answer question by @derf:
No formal employment since both retired in 2012. We do however have some friends and relatives throw at us a little cash, dinners, event tix and the like for our otherwise gratuitous mgmt of their ports. I have also done some yard work for some neighbors to keep busy and active for a ridiculously smallish hourly fee. Currently down to just one neighbor as I've tired somewhat of all that.

”hank, are you willing to provide more personal details about your situation, so your opinions have some context?”
Which opinion? I’ll try to compare my situation to yours but not sure if that affects most of my opinions about investing or finance..
- “When I retired 13 years ago,”
I retired 25 years ago
- ”I attempted to project my future spending needs”
Ditto. I worked this out over the 2 or 3 years before retiring.
- “Over these years I have meet my spending needs with a combination of pension income (with a COLA), an Annuity Income (Savings that I converted to an Annuity), and some part time work.”
Pretty close. I have Social Security and a pension. While working I opted-in to a pension feature that adds 3% yearly of initial amount. Not really COLA - but helpful. The pension provides some supplemental health care coverage in combination with Medicare. I’m not as up-to-speed as I should be on the out-of-pocket expenses - but there are some. Never owned an annuity. No part time work. Active maintaining home infrastructure others might farm out.
- ”Since retirement, I have continue to contribute to my HSA and my IRA with contributions from part time work income. Recently I began managing one of my properties as a seasonal rental for additional income. I will work part time spending some of that work income and saving some into an IRA until age 73. My RMDs will then become a forced taxable event that may turn into an income source if needed or taxable savings if not needed."
Had a 403-B at work invested 100% in a global equities for 28 years. On retirement I converted it to a Traditional IRA and diversified the assets more broadly. In early ‘09 I converted about 40% to a Roth to take advantage of the crash. Made 2 smaller conversions over the next decade. 90% now in a Roth. RMDs alone from the Traditional are adequate to meet all my needs (along with SS & pension). The Roth provides a safety-net that might be needed for major infrastructure repair or other unexpected needs. I’m single and once-divorced. Own some nearby real estate that could be sold for additional cash. The home has a small fixed rate 3.13% mortgage (less than 20% of value) taken out for some renovation more than 5 years ago. Could pay it off, but think I can do better investing across a diversified portfolio consisting largely of OEFs, CEFs & ETFs.

Thanks for your information Hank! Your comparisons are actually to those of "bee", which I quoted in my post to you above, but that is fine since this thread actually should link back to the OPs.

”hank, are you willing to provide more personal details about your situation, so your opinions have some context?”
Which opinion? I’ll try to compare my situation to yours but not sure if that affects most of my opinions about investing or finance..
- “When I retired 13 years ago,”
I retired 25 years ago
- ”I attempted to project my future spending needs”
Ditto. I worked this out over the 2 or 3 years before retiring.
- “Over these years I have meet my spending needs with a combination of pension income (with a COLA), an Annuity Income (Savings that I converted to an Annuity), and some part time work.”
Pretty close. I have Social Security and a pension. While working I opted-in to a pension feature that adds 3% yearly of initial amount. Not really COLA - but helpful. The pension provides some supplemental health care coverage in combination with Medicare. I’m not as up-to-speed as I should be on the out-of-pocket expenses - but there are some. Never owned an annuity. No part time work. Active maintaining home infrastructure others might farm out.
- ”Since retirement, I have continue to contribute to my HSA and my IRA with contributions from part time work income. Recently I began managing one of my properties as a seasonal rental for additional income. I will work part time spending some of that work income and saving some into an IRA until age 73. My RMDs will then become a forced taxable event that may turn into an income source if needed or taxable savings if not needed."
Had a 403-B at work invested 100% in a global equities for 28 years. On retirement I converted it to a Traditional IRA and diversified the assets more broadly. In early ‘09 I converted about 40% to a Roth to take advantage of the crash. Made 2 smaller conversions over the next decade. 90% now in a Roth. RMDs alone from the Traditional are adequate to meet all my needs (along with SS & pension). The Roth provides a safety-net that might be needed for major infrastructure repair or other unexpected needs. I’m single and once-divorced. Own some nearby real estate that could be sold for additional cash. The home has a small fixed rate 3.13% mortgage (less than 20% of value) taken out for some renovation more than 5 years ago. Could pay it off, but think I can do better investing across a diversified portfolio consisting largely of OEFs, CEFs & ETFs.

@dtconroe, do you have Medicare or Medicare Advantage? Once you start Medicare, you cannot contribute to hsa, But you can continue to draw from hsa.

My question was misdirected to @dtconroe. It should have been to @bee.

Yes. Began paying medicare part b premium as well as medicare advantage premium. Both are qualified HSA expenses for reimbursement along with all of the following:
HSA Eligible List

@dtconroe, do you have Medicare or Medicare Advantage? Once you start Medicare, you cannot contribute to hsa, But you can continue to draw from hsa.

My question was misdirected to @dtconroe. It should have been to @bee.

hank, are you willing to provide more personal details about your situation, so your opinions have some context? bee did provide personal details of retirement and consideration of an "annuity-like" income stream:
"When I retired 13 years ago, I attempted to project my future spending needs. Over these years I have meet my spending needs with a combination of pension income (with a COLA), an Annuity Income (Savings that I converted to an Annuity), and some part time work. Since retirement, I have continue to contribute to my HSA and my IRA with contributions from part time work income. Recently I began managing one of my properties as a seasonal rental for additional income. I will work part time spending some of that work income and saving some into an IRA until age 73. My RMDs will then become a forced taxable event that may turn into an income source if needed or taxable savings if not needed."
I never know if posters are in similar situation as the OP, or if they are in a very different situation, when they offer their input to the OP.

@dtconroe, do you have Medicare or Medicare Advantage? Once you start Medicare, you cannot contribute to hsa, But you can continue to draw from hsa.

I have a Medicare Advantage plan and an HSA. Fortunately, I have been very healthy throughout my retirement. Same is true for my wife!

@dtconroe, do you have Medicare or Medicare Advantage? Once you start Medicare, you cannot contribute to hsa, But you can continue to draw from hsa.

bee: "Question: How many have turned to annuities or "annuity - like" strategies to increase your income spending?
When I retired 13 years ago, I attempted to project my future spending needs. Over these years I have meet my spending needs with a combination of pension income (with a COLA), an Annuity Income (Savings that I converted to an Annuity), and some part time work. Since retirement, I have continue to contribute to my HSA and my IRA with contributions from part time work income. Recently I began managing one of my properties as a seasonal rental for additional income. I will work part time spending some of that work income and saving some into an IRA until age 73. My RMDs will then become a forced taxable event that may turn into an income source if needed or taxable savings if not needed.
What type of a portfolio would you design as an "Annuity - like" strategy for yourself? Maybe a combinations of Balanced mutual funds/EFTs that distribute periodically? Am I deribing the 4% rule?
Shifting from a mindset of saving for retirement to a mindset of confidently spending in retirement is a huge challenge we all face."
For me, I accumulated a significant amount "defined contribution" assets through my employer, along with some estate inheritance assets inherited by my wife. Those all reside in our property, in our Schwab Brokerage, and in local banks and credit unions. As part of our retirement, my wife and I depend on income from Social Security, a small government pension, which pays enough income for about half of our normal living expenses. We produce additional income through a changing array of asset holdings at our brokerage and our bank and credit unions. The closest thing to an "Annuity-like" strategy, that we use are fixed income instruments such as Money Market accounts, CDs, high yield Savings Accounts, and treasuries, to supplement SS and the small pension of my wife. The fixed income instruments are comfortably producing a 4 to 6% stream of income, so I am able to maintain principal and just live off the income that my "principal assets" throw off annually. I have in previous years used bond oefs, that were very low volatility, low "risk" funds, such as RPHIX and DHEAX, but when the Market went through a severe correction in 2020, I sold all the bond oef funds, put all the sales proceeds into MMs, and then moved money out of MMs into other low risk fixed income instruments, many of which are covered by FDIC and NCUA government insurance protection. That is where I am now, but I always have to maintain enough investing flexibility to make investment decisions necessary to throw off enough income, with the least amount of risk, to meet my 4 to 6% annual earnings.

Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2024/Q4–January 13, 2025)
https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
(Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2024/Q4 and YTD to 12/31/24)
(No Supplement – it’s all within the main issue)
Pg 12:2024 was tough for stockpickers. So, look at the holdings of the top funds – LC-PAGDX, LC-BRAGX, MC-RCMFX, SC-HFCGX. Those included Magnificent 7, big tech, financials, energy. What may work for 2025? AI, energy, materials, infrastructure, travel.
Pg 14: In this Trump market, just follow the leaders. Watch cryptos, the best M* category (Digital Assets) of 2024, followed far behind by the MLPs. Trump and sons have a crypto venture called World Liberty Financial. Bonds and rate sensitive plays (utilities, real estate, etc) were laggards with the exception of financials that should benefit from coming deregulations. Funds related to Trump’s circle of friends did very well – PTIR (2x PLTR), TSLL (2x TSLA), MLXIX (9.6% in ET).
SP500 has 33% in tech and 13% in financials and did quite well in 2024 with +25% despite softness in stocks in 2024/Q4. The total ETF AUM was over $10 trillion with 4 ETFs among the top 10 being the SP500 ETFs. Inflows into ETFs, including the active ETFs, were strong. Mutual funds had outflows. Foreign funds didn’t do well (the US investor returns were also hurt by a strong dollar). (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
More on Funds & Retirement
RETIREMENT. Super Catchup for 401k/403b from 2025. Another Secure 2.0 provision for catchups for 401k, 403b, government 457 and federal TSP kicks in 2025.
For 55+ $7,500 (regular)
For 60-63 $11,250 (higher of $10,000 and 150% of regular catchup)
SIMPLE retirement plan catchups are also adjusted: 55+ $3,500, 60-63 $5,250.
Priority order – 401k to employer match, Roth IRA, HSA, top off 401k.
Barron’s weekend issue has CASH TRACK charts showing 4-wMA of flows.
https://i.ibb.co/dDw0rm1/Barrons-Cash-Track-011125.png
Q4 Top 5 Fund Categories (MFOP)
https://i.ibb.co/5x4xYCK/MFOP-Quarterly-Top5-010925.png
Q4 Bottom 5 Fund Categories (MFOP)
https://i.ibb.co/R69M4pz/MFOP-Quarterly-Bottom5-010925.png
LINK

PRWCX vs (TCAF+PRCFX)
If you can't own PRWCX, maybe consider owning a combination of TCAF/PRCFX.
Using a percentage of the eft TCAF in combination with a percentage of PRCFX one can approximate the same portfolio as PRWCX.
PRWCX allocation changes dynamically so this is an imprecise science.
Using PV, you can back test these three funds over the short lifespan of TCAF and PRCFX (1 Year). I found that a combination of approximately (1/3) TCAF and (2/3) PRCFX achieved a slightly better return that PRWCX with similar risk profiles. Maybe, in large part to a lower ER than PRWCX.
Here's the PV link:
https://portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=3fHSaFUgvCF0hNyOy10GSc

As @fundly observed, one can purchase the ITRIX clone w/$100 min through Firstrade. While not an exact copy, it is a faithful clone that mimic's PRWCX's allocations between stock and bonds, and even within stocks.
My impression is that this dynamic allocation is part of Giroux's secret sauce. Duplication through static allocations dilutes this sauce. According to PV, the proposed admixtures result in 71% large cap stocks, while "the original' currently keeps only 63% of its equity in large caps.
One year is hardly enough time to get any sort of meaningful impression. Here's the same PV comparison extended back just one extra month, December 2023. Here, PRWCX is the one that achieves a slight better return.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=7lfscKm5n0ACQ13fTdpipc
What a difference a month makes. 31 little days.

PRWCX vs (TCAF+PRCFX)
If you can't own PRWCX, maybe consider owning a combination of TCAF/PRCFX.
Using a percentage of the eft TCAF in combination with a percentage of PRCFX one can approximate the same portfolio as PRWCX.
PRWCX allocation changes dynamically so this is an imprecise science.
Using PV, you can back test these three funds over the short lifespan of TCAF and PRCFX (1 Year). I found that a combination of approximately (1/3) TCAF and (2/3) PRCFX achieved a slightly better return that PRWCX with similar risk profiles. Maybe, in large part to a lower ER than PRWCX.
Here's the PV link:
https://portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=3fHSaFUgvCF0hNyOy10GSc

Very helpful. Thnx. :)

PRWCX vs (TCAF+PRCFX)
If you can't own PRWCX, maybe consider owning a combination of TCAF/PRCFX.
Using a percentage of the eft TCAF in combination with a percentage of PRCFX one can approximate the same portfolio as PRWCX.
PRWCX allocation changes dynamically so this is an imprecise science.
Using PV, you can back test these three funds over the short lifespan of TCAF and PRCFX (1 Year). I found that a combination of approximately (1/3) TCAF and (2/3) PRCFX achieved a slightly better return that PRWCX with similar risk profiles. Maybe, in large part to a lower ER than PRWCX.
Here's the PV link:
https://portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=3fHSaFUgvCF0hNyOy10GSc

Question: How many have turned to annuities or "annuity - like" strategies to increase your income spending?
When I retired 13 years ago, I attempted to project my future spending needs. Over these years I have meet my spending needs with a combination of pension income (with a COLA), an Annuity Income (Savings that I converted to an Annuity), and some part time work. Since retirement, I have continue to contribute to my HSA and my IRA with contributions from part time work income. Recently I began managing one of my properties as a seasonal rental for additional income. I will work part time spending some of that work income and saving some into an IRA until age 73. My RMDs will then become a forced taxable event that may turn into an income source if needed or taxable savings if not needed.
What type of a portfolio would you design as an "Annuity - like" strategy for yourself? Maybe a combinations of Balanced mutual funds/EFTs that distribute periodically? Am I describing the 4% rule?
Shifting from a mindset of saving for retirement to a mindset of confidently spending in retirement is a huge challenge we all face.
Sourced through Ron Berger's Weekly email Newsletter:
https://robberger.com/newsletter/
Working Paper:
Retirre's Spend Lifetime Income, Not Savings

Abstract: The shift to defined contribution savings plans means that more retirees must fund spending
from savings. Prior studies find that there appears to be a behavioral resistance to spending down
savings after retirement in a manner that is consistent with life cycle models. We explore how lifetime
income, wage income, capital income, qualified savings, and nonqualified savings are used to fund
retirement spending. We find that retirees spend far more from lifetime income than other categories of
wealth. Approximately 80% of lifetime income is consumed, on average, versus only approximately half or
other available savings and income sources. Overall, the analysis suggests that converting savings into
lifetime income could increase retirement consumption significantly, especially for married households.

If you have an Health Saving Account, Medicare Part B Premiums and deductibles are eligible for HSA reimbursement.

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services just announced that monthly costs for Medicare Part B premiums, annual deductible and IRMAA surcharges will rise by a much higher amount, about 5.9%, for 2025.

https://tipswatch.com/2024/11/15/medicare-costs-for-2025-once-again-are-rising-faster-than-inflation/

Thanks @yogibearbull.
I'd like to add (since I just turned 65):

2025 standard deduction over 65
There's an additional standard deduction for taxpayers 65 and older and those who are blind. For 2025 that additional amount is $1,600 ($2,000 if unmarried and not a surviving spouse).
Those eligible can add the extra standard deduction to the regular amount for their filing status. So, a single taxpayer 65 or older (or who is blind) can claim a total standard deduction of $17,000 on their 2025 federal tax return.

Source:
https://kiplinger.com/taxes/the-new-standard-deduction-is-here
Also, found these contribution limits for 2025:
"Remember there are catch-up provisions that increase some of these limits"
-I noticed they missed the $1K catch-up provision for HSA