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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero and launches massive $700B QE program
    god forbid we have a sizable real financial problem, get hit by a meteor, or have a pandemic way more serious and untreatable
  • Here's what could really sink the global economy: $19 trillion in risky corporate debt
    http://www.wicz.com/story/41895546/heres-what-could-really-sink-the-global-economy-19-trillion-in-risky-corporate-debt
    /Here's what could really sink the global economy: $19 trillion in risky corporate debt
    Posted: Mar 14, 2020 2:32 AM CDT
    By Julia Horowitz, CNN Business
    Companies have spent the years since the global financial crisis binging on debt. Now, as the coronavirus pandemic threatens to push the world into recession, the bill could come due — exacerbating damage to the economy and feeding a meltdown in financial markets./
    We may have to monitor the junk bonds closely, value declined significantly few wks. Difficult tell if they recover in short terms especially oil energy sectors
  • VLAAX
    @Crash This was the reason I exited E*Trade and Ameritrade. If you do not challenge any financial transaction within 60 days, your are sh*t out of luck unless you want to go to court. The ONE reason to go to NTF platforms is for simplifying your life and you pay more in fees to do that instead of owning fund directly with company. It is in times like we are experiencing right now is when I should not have to deal with such nonsense. That's what I'm paying my NTF platform for with my 12b-1 fees.
    Anyone who cannot add and subtract doesn't deserve my business. Will let yawl know how it goes. Right now I even see some transactions duplicated in my transaction history. It's a freakin' mess.
    @Old_Joe I have to say you are correct. Had same experience with Scottrade. I don't have to call then even one time. At most I had to send email about some question once a year max. I'm just glad my IRA will move from TDAmeritrade to Schwab. If I'm going to exit TIAA hope all the wrong TDAmeritrade people go to TIAA and leave me alone.
    For now I've taken screenshots of the Fund detail pages in case I hear "oh but you are mistaken about fund being NTF". FWIW.
  • AAA longer duration bonds a bit better, U.S.T. issues, March 20, Friday PM close, watching.....
    Not directly related to COVID-19; but the current results are similar.
    I posted this back in 2011; or there about. I need some comic relief again, don't know about you.
    Are we all going to receive another quantitative easing? I don't know. What's left to do.
    Sadly, Mr. Clarke passed in 2017. These two put so many financial events in a comic light, based in truth.
    NOTE: you may need to click the play arrow two times
  • AAA longer duration bonds a bit better, U.S.T. issues, March 20, Friday PM close, watching.....
    Thank you @Old_Joe for the WSJ overview
    The below link is from a report about noon on Friday. Most Treasury issues prices remain negative at 3pm, and in particular the 30 year stuff which is -2 to -3%. Yields moving UP. So, I still don't understand what is happening. Sure as hell, something is broken somewhere in the financial system.
    The fully and totally beaten up corp. bond market is shining so far today, which are at about a +5%. Trading like an equity and may crash and burn before the end of the market day.
    Treasury Buying issues starting with 30 year bond
  • AAA longer duration bonds a bit better, U.S.T. issues, March 20, Friday PM close, watching.....
    @Catch22- Here's a short version of a current WSJ article which seems to be reflecting some of your concerns.

    Funding strains in the banking system worsened slightly Friday despite the New York Federal Reserve’s offer to inject $1.5 trillion of extra short-term funding.
    The strains suggest the Fed’s promised injection of central-bank money, announced Thursday, hasn’t fully solved the banking system’s issues. Some analysts and investors think a return to a full quantitative easing—or bond-buying—program will be needed to calm funding markets that lie at the center of the world’s financial infrastructure.
    Bond and equity markets remained volatile and price moves may not reflect normal changes in investors’ appetite for risk, according to analysts.
    In a sign of growing funding strains in the banking system, indicators of the difference between the rate at which banks lend to each other and the Fed’s interest rate increased to the highest level since the tail end of the 2008-09 financial crisis.
    The Fed offered up to $1.5 trillion for periods of one month and three months Thursday and Friday. However, banks only drew a total of $119.5 billion, suggesting this wasn’t the kind of liquidity they needed. The low takeup suggests that the problems might not be so simple as a shortage of central-bank reserves.
    “There is lots of money in the system but it is not circulating easily,” said a foreign-exchange strategist at UBS. “The ability of the financial system to intermediate in this market is now very constrained.”
    The underlying problem, say some investors, is that banks are holding too many Treasurys and don’t want any more. It is a situation that hasn’t been fully resolved since it was exposed by a spike in borrowing costs in repurchase—or repo—overnight
    borrowing markets in September.
    The preceding is a substantially abridged selection from the original WSJ article.
  • What's Cheap, peeps?
    @Crash Is CM's dividend safe? 7+% is an impressive yield.
    I check with "Simply Wall Street" as well as Morningstar, when it comes to single-stocks.
    "SWS" shows CM at an even deeper discount, -48.5% below NAV. They are showing the div as just a bit lower, at 6.82%. (But see below!) "Highly volatile" over the last 3 months, but EVERYTHING has been volatile, lately....The graph shows CM to be less volatile than the industry average, though it's a bit more volatile than the GENERAL market.
    ...Valuation is shown at greater than -50% discount. (NYSE dollars, not Toronto.) 4 out of 6 "analyst checks" are green, 2 are red. Those two are the PEG ration and the P/B.
    "Fair Value" is pegged at $122.64. Price today is $52.22.
    Analyst future growth forecast: not good, so you'd be buying it for the dividend. It's not NEGATIVE, just not much growth is forecasted. "Earnings" are rated as "quality." So I guess that means earnings at CM are not made up of non-recurring items that are exceptions to the rule.
    Financial health: 6 out of 6 green check-marks. Long-term assets are much bigger than liabilities. On the specific spot showing the dividend, it is shown as 8.23%. (It goes ex-dividend on 25th March.)
    "Yield vs. the Market:" 8.2 right now and in three years it is forecast to be 8.4.
    The dividend is judged to be "stable" and "growing." Right now, 50% of earnings are paid out to shareholders, and 49% predicted in three years.
    I hope all of this is useful. :)
  • What's Cheap, peeps?
    As for bargains: at the risk of sounding like a broken record: Canadian BANKS. RY CM BMO TD BNS NTIOF. Down YTD between -27% and -42%. CM's div. yield is 7.08% tonight. (Morningstar.)

    I met a Canadian financial advisor on a train trip back in the winter of 2017. He said it was pretty easy work. Just told his customers to buy Canadian banks.
  • AAA longer duration bonds a bit better, U.S.T. issues, March 20, Friday PM close, watching.....
    @catch22- @davidmoran just posted a link to a current NYT article. Seems that you're not the only one wondering what's happening. Here's an excerpt:
    Wednesday was an unsettling day on global financial markets, and not just because the stock market fell sharply enough to bring a decade-plus bull market to an end.
    Underneath the headline numbers were a series of movements that don’t really make sense when lined up against one another. They amount to signs — not definitive, but worrying — that something is breaking down in the workings of the financial system, even if it’s not totally clear what that is just yet.
    Bond prices and stock prices were moving together, not in opposite directions as they usually do. On a day when major economic disruptions resulting from the coronavirus pandemic appeared to become likelier — which might be expected to make typical market safe havens more popular — many of them fell instead. That included bonds of all sorts and gold.
    And there were reports from trading desks that many assets that are normally liquid — easy to buy and sell — were freezing up, with securities not trading widely. This was true of the bonds issued by municipalities and major corporations but, more curiously, also of Treasury bonds, normally the bedrock of the global financial system.
    People, it is fair to say, are worried about bond market liquidity.
  • PIMIX
    I know people here including me hold PIMIX or PONAX. It did outstanding during the financial crisis but is currently getting beat up, and kinda has (or underperforming) for the last few years. Kinda wondering if it's really worth holding onto at this point. What is happening with PIMIX these days? Thanks for the help!
  • Can someone help with a stock market question?
    As I posted I said to myself that this question should draw out the MFO big guns & heavy hitters, and I am certainly not disappointed in that prediction. Thanks to all of you guys.
    A footnote: If Ted were still with us I'm betting that he would have tried to help also. We may not have been great friends but the man was a consummate financial professional.
  • T. Rowe Price Institutional Africa & Middle East Fund to liquidate
    I wonder why TRP isn't simply merging this fund into its retail Africa & Middle East fund, converting TRIAX shares into the institutional class shares PRAMX of the latter fund. Same manager, effectively clones.
    TRIAX page: https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/mutual-funds/us-products/institutional-africa-middle-east-fund.html
    PRAMX page: https://www.troweprice.com/content/fai/us/en/investments/mutual-funds/us-products/africa-and-middle-east-fund/i-class.html
  • David's March Discussion - a lot of food for thought --- AMEN
    Gary, you noted:
    Quote from David, "continue ignoring financial pornography, screaming heads, click-bait and other appeals to my worst instincts. Between rising market volatility, rising political frenzy and international challenges occasioned by dictators and viruses, that’s going to take some discipline.
    These are personality traits, of individuals; which may or may not be fixable given enough time. Hopefully, this condition doesn't affect their investment judgments; although one will have to presume a law of averages. Hell, at least 50% of long time drivers in Michigan don't know how black ice forms on roadways; and definitely don't remember from the previous winter driving season.
    As to post's here, yes. One should read and understand an article to determine how valid the information is, relative to this forum. You've been here since day 1, too; and have seen enough of the junk posts (which still persist). I/we don't need to read about a precious metals (or whatever) web site trying to justify why it is time to buy right now before the world "goes to hell in a hand basket". This doesn't include a well written document at a web site to justify an investment overview. I just don't need to see a clickable link in the first paragraph so that I may "sign up" for more profound info.
    A poster should be able to provide 10-20 of their own words in succinct fashion as to why they feel the post is relevant. None of the copy/paste of 500-1,000 words format.
    Some may feel I become too chatty with some posts, but I attempt to not write hallow words and thoughts from my viewpoint. I don't bang upon the keyboard for finger exercises.
    Okay, enough from me.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • David's March Discussion - a lot of food for thought --- AMEN
    Quote from David, "continue ignoring financial pornography, screaming heads, click-bait and other appeals to my worst instincts. Between rising market volatility, rising political frenzy and international challenges occasioned by dictators and viruses, that’s going to take some discipline." Do you even read his discussions??
    I'm not as well educated as most of you and post my share of crap but as of late started trying to put some thought into what I post.
    After Monday's fiasco we all need to follow this and stop posting crap just for the sake of posting. We all need to stop and read what we are posting and see if it has has any relevance to our situations and is not psycho babble. After all if we want to read this crap we can find it on our own we don't need any one's help to find!!! Posting this "shot in the dark crap" is degrading the value of this web site. It also waste's the readers time - just my 2 piasters.
  • Dodge and Cox
    It’s the financial exposure. They’ve really gotten clocked since rates plunged. They’ve been expecting rates to rise for couple years. That would be benefit banks, etc. Their balanced fund, DODBX, is also lagging. It’s equity holdings are similar to DODGX. No crystal ball here - but I think it’s fair to say that their recent performance isn’t on a par with their storied reputation. It could just be that you and I don’t have the same longer term focus these guys have.
    Edit: - Have a few extra minutes here so will elaborate. D&C has low fees for a managed fund house. Over long periods, that shows up in your return. Very long term (10, 20, 30 years) they stand up well). Nearer term can be a bumpy ride. I have a small allocation to DODBX in my most aggressive sleeve. I carry a similar allocation to PRWCX. Over many decades, I’d expect those two to run about even - but PRWCX has outshined now for about a decade. Great hot manager. And good luck.
    The larger portion of my above mentioned investment sleeve, however, is in RPGAX. Long term it shouldn’t do as well as the other two (for lots of reasons). However, if like myself you view current markets as “frothy”, than RPGAX should hold up better in such an environment since it’s better hedged.
    Not meant as advice. Just my (amateur) views. BTW - I dumped OAKBX over a year ago. I didn’t think the managers were consistently hewing to their stated philosophy. The fund’s behavior indicated something else. I can’t say that of D&C. In this case, they’ve held true to their deep value long term approach. Markets just aren’t cooperating.
  • the quants weigh in: "not yet"
    Blaine Rollins, founder of 361 Capital and former Big Dog at Janus:
    The moves are extreme but reflect the now-dual uncertainty of something that we have not seen since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. Don’t expect this volatility to end anytime soon. COVID-19 cases are far from peaking in the U.S. The Fed is getting more limited in its market assistance options, and Washington D.C. is failing to inspire confidence. A “V” shaped bounce to all-time news highs will not be happening for the equity and risk asset markets this time around.
    But this also does not look like a 2008 GFC panic which led to a collapse in real estate valuations and an 80-90% decline in bank stock prices. (Investor Letter, 3/9/2020)
    "Getting worse but not 2008" currently passed for calm, thoughtful optimism.
  • Grandeur Peak US Stalwarts Fund to start accepting monies
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834420005579/fp0051767_497.htm
    497 1 fp0051767_497.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
    Grandeur Peak US Stalwarts Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated March 9, 2020 to The Fund’s Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated December 23, 2019
    Shares of the Fund will be offered for sale effective March 19, 2020.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE. YOU MAY DISCARD THIS SUPPLEMENT ONCE SHARES OF THE FUNDS ARE OFFERED FOR SALE.
  • An Investor’s Guide to Income Funds (investing 101 refresher)
    https://smartasset.com/financial-advisor/income-fund
    An Investor’s Guide to Income Funds
    Investing in the stock market involves two main objectives: growth and income. Growth investments can increase in value over time. Income investments can put money into your pocket consistently. An income fund is one way to cash in on the benefits of income investing in a simplified way.
    Treasury
    Municipal bonds
    Corporate bonds
    Junk bonds
    International bonds
    Income funds can serve a distinct purpose inside a portfolio. As a result, there are several good reasons to include them as part of your retirement strategy. Take time to research different income funds. That can help you decide which of those funds may best meet your investment goals.
  • American Beacon liquidates three funds
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/809593/000080959320000021/0131_fye_funds_liquidation.htm
    American Beacon Acadian Emerging Markets Managed Volatility Fund
    American Beacon Crescent Short Duration High Income Fund
    American Beacon GLG Total Return Fund
    497 1 0131_fye_funds_liquidation.htm
    Supplement dated March 5, 2020
    to the
    Prospectus and Summary Prospectuses dated May 31, 2019, as previously amended or supplemented
    The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of American Beacon Funds has approved a plan to liquidate and terminate the American Beacon Acadian Emerging Markets Managed Volatility Fund (“Acadian Fund”), the American Beacon Crescent Short Duration High Income Fund (“Crescent Fund”), and the American Beacon GLG Total Return Fund (the “GLG Fund,” and together with the Acadian Fund and the Crescent Fund, the “Funds”) on or about April 30, 2020 (the “Liquidation Date”), upon the recommendation of American Beacon Advisors, Inc., the Funds’ investment manager.
    In anticipation of the liquidation, effective immediately, each Fund is closed to new shareholders. To prepare for the liquidation of the Funds, Acadian Asset Management LLC, the sub-advisor to the Acadian Fund, Crescent Capital Group LP, the sub-advisor to the Crescent Fund, and GLG LLC, the sub-advisor to the GLG Fund, may need to increase the portion of the relevant Fund's assets held in cash and similar instruments in order to pay for that Fund’s expenses and to meet redemption requests. The Funds may no longer be pursuing their respective investment objectives during this transition. Each Fund will distribute cash pro rata to all remaining shareholders who have not previously redeemed or exchanged all of their shares on or about the Liquidation Date. These shareholder redemptions may be taxable events. Once the shareholder redemptions are complete, the Funds will terminate.
    Please note that you may be eligible to exchange your shares of a Fund at net asset value per share at any time prior to the Liquidation Date for shares of the same share class of another American Beacon Fund under certain limited circumstances. You also may redeem your shares of a Fund at any time prior to the Liquidation Date. No sales charges, redemption fees or termination fees will be imposed in connection with such exchanges and redemptions. In general, exchanges and redemptions are taxable events for shareholders.
    In connection with its liquidation, each Fund may declare taxable distributions of its net investment income and net capital gain in advance of its Liquidation Date.
    If you own Fund shares in a tax deferred account, such as an individual retirement account, 401(k) or 403(b) account, you should consult your tax adviser to discuss a Fund’s liquidation and determine its tax consequences.
    For more information, please contact us at 1-800-658-5811, Option 1. If you purchased shares of a Fund through your financial intermediary, please contact your broker-dealer or other financial intermediary for further details.
    ***********************************************************
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Muni Yield Curve. Bond yields fall as prices ris
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=8b5WXouwOZK6sgXgkb6gCg&q=Rush+to+Invest+in+Municipal+Debt+Pushes+Yields+to+Record+Lows&oq=Rush+to+Invest+in+Municipal+Debt+Pushes+Yields+to+Record+Lows&gs_l=mobile-gws-wiz-hp.3...3162.3162..4327...0.0..0.106.106.0j1......0....2j1.......0.x4yqGNzH18k
    Incognito search for article title
    Rush to Invest in Municipal Debt Pushes Yields to Record Lows - WSJ
    The new wave of demand Monday pushed bond yields to once-unheard-of levels. Yields on high-grade tax-exempt 30-year municipal bonds fell to 1.627% Monday, 46% lower than in February of last year, according to financial analytics company ICE Data