My overall is up around +2.3% YTD, slowly creeping up. Can't complain (but I will in the next paragraph :) ). Schwab says their 'moderately conservative' benchmark portfolio is up +1.3% YTD. Another bench mark I compare to is the TRP 45% equity retirement fund (TRRAX), up +1.9% YTD.
I'm going to give up totally on the Schwab Intelligent Portfolio, the robo. It has made 0% YTD after many years of lack luster return. At one time I split about 50:50 between the robo and self managed. I reduced the robo to ~15% by the end of 2023. It's high cash allowance, ~12%, makes fractions of a percent while the Schwab MM, which they don't use in the robo, has consistently made ~5%+ the past year. This cash allotment is an anchor. Also, it has consistently been heavy International and emerging markets which also hasn't worked out. I gave it time. I've had it for ~7 years and it hasn't performed any better than a target date fund. Worst in fact.

Not sure why he called his portfolio “garpy”

@Sven, I think he made the case very well that most of those companies (Microsoft, NVIDA, Amazon) are growth-at-a-reasonable-price given they will lead the way for AI in coming years. Sounds "garpy" to me.
Great read. Thanks @Roy.

I have been pleased with MRFOX performance (not just TR) for the one month I have held it. Decided to do additional research on it and am surprised to note M* says MRFOX portfolio is of one of the lowest Quality (as of Aug 31, 2023). Its D/C ratio is 46% which probably explains the low Quality. Over the past couple of years, I generally try to stay away from high D/C ratios but the fund managers seem to be able to manage well.
This yet small but not new fund is seeing a lot of inflows since beginning of 2023- the last three months' inflows alone account for 1/10th of AUM.

@yogibearbull.
Wow. You are first subscriber I've come across that uses Insurance Funds! In ten years, I do not believe I've ever seen them even discussed on the board.
In addition to suspecting they were of little use to MFO community, I have also found that they tend to be duplicates of portfolios found in other funds, becoming almost more like additional share classes instead of unique portfolios.
Not all have IF- tickers, only those that have do not have their own NASDAQ tickers. Then, we assign the IF- designator.
I'm curious. I'm assuming you purchase these through an insurance agent or a broker dealer with an insurance license.
And, do you find they offer portfolios (strategies) not available in other fund vehicles?
Hmm. I believe you should be able to run without saving. But, in any case, please do not remove ... we will add insurance funds back in.
Very much appreciate the feedback and will extend to your subscription for the hassle.
c

@Charles, this is only one perspective.
Just in December 2023, I prepared a long write up what then was a unique feature of MFO Premium - its insurance fund coverage. Many years ago, M* had many of those, but it moved them from the free side to the professional side. But it seems that this unique feature of MFO is/will-be gone.
In trying to verify this, I find that NONE of my Saved MFO portfolios can run - there is an alert box that I must first remove unidentified IF-TICKERS from everywhere (i.e., from all portfolios) first. I am not going to do that yet. At least, this should be portfolio specific - i.e. the MFO portfolios without IF-TICKERS should run, while only those with IF-TICKERS should fail. Now, all of my MFO portfolios are basically frozen.
See these previous features on Insurance Funds at MFO. Once confirmed/verified, I will modify/update this information. MFO Premium suddenly has much less value for me personally.
1 https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/536/tiaa-cref-vas-mfo
2 https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/61774/tiaa-cref-vas-at-mfo
3 At Facebook

There have been a couple of interesting thoughts recently about how the "Nifty Fifty" really did going forward.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2024/02/21/magnificent-seven-bubble-nifty-fifty?hsid=28049439&_hsmi=295446596
Table one is particularly interesting. I have found Leibowitz to be very thoughtful and insightful, and free!
He references Jeremy Siegel's article years ago, proving ( Siegel says) that even getting in a the peak, you made money in Nifty Fifty, as long as you held on ( for dear life!)
Hussman has a new "special edition" piece reiterating his previous concerns about valuations. He sounds so logical, but the differences between the portfolios of HSTRX and HSGFX could not be more extreme.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/observations/obs240225/

My most successful mutual fund is FCNTX, which I’ve owned about 25 years. I have sold portions over the years because it had grown so much that I was afraid it getting too large. Plus, I used to follow M* religiously, and they rarely have anything good to say about Fidelity funds except to da,n them with faint praise. It’s still one of my largest holdings and continues to amaze me. I don’t worry about its holdings because Danoff seems to find value in every market. Similar results from FBALX, another fund that gets no respect from M*.

Hi, guys.
Colohouse, our web host, substantially underestimated the size of MFO when they configured the new server onto which we were being copied. Part way through the transfer, they got a "holy mackeroley" alarm from the software, notifying them that they had run out of room (ummm ... we've had lots to say over the years? And Ted!) and the transfer was being terminated.
Their next try at making a duplicate of the site will occur after 10:00 CST tonight. And disruption should be, they swear, minimal.
Just thought you'd like to know!

I recall the San Bruno explosion and fire in the news. Very near the SF airport, yes? And a person killed in SF when a natgas build-up resulted in an explosion which sent a manhole cover into the air. Damaged a car, killed that individual. PG&E was the defendant in that Erin Brokovitch matter many years ago, down in Kern County. Rural CA.
PG&E has shown itself, over way too long a period of time, to be a hot mess, an unethical scum-sucking disaster of an entity. Highest yoot rates? Let's say 1st or 2nd highest. I have to deal with HE over here in Hawaii.

@Graust. “Don’t fight the market.” If I were 30 years younger I would agree. In fact, thats what I tell my adult kids who have plenty to invest and then ignore it. As for this old guy I am increasingly risk adverse. Today’s market is expensive and too concentrated.

With respect to PG&E, the facts are a bit more complex than the shotgun evaluation from Berkshire. For many years PG&E grew safely and profitably, with a reasonable return mandated by the regulatory environment. As the Berkshire report itself observes, this system worked perfectly well. Because of it's financial stability PG&E was regarded as a "widows and orphans" stock- plodding but safe and dependable- predictable dividends right on schedule.
Then came, from the "conservative" political forces, demands to "free" the utilities from the "artificial regulatory burdens" and allow them to "compete" in a free-for-all environment that would "unlock" their potential for greatly increased profits. The Berkshire report very conveniently "forgets" how PG&E and other utilities were raped by entities like Enron in this new era of "regulatory freedom".
PG&E management, it turned out, were sheep who after years of cozy and protective regulation, were completely unsuited to life in the wild, and were duly herded into the corral and slaughtered. Bankruptcy followed in 2001, with of course, "new management" following.
The new management cut back severely on any equipment purchases or upgrades, and their maintenance forces were left to wither. Their once new and shiny service vehicle fleet became more of a traveling junkyard of faded-paint and obviously over-used equipment. Maintenance support personnel were cut back to the point where even the office support staffs had no resources to document what little construction or repair work was being done.
This resulted in the first of a long line of subsequent safety-failure episodes: in 2010 a massive explosion and eight-alarm fire in a major natural gas line just to the south of San Francisco killed eight and destroyed or severely damaged some forty homes. The US Geological Survey registered the explosion and resulting shock wave as a magnitude 1.1 earthquake.*
PG&E's service resources were so depleted that it took them over an hour just to determine what had happened, and to respond. The fire was only fifty percent contained after four hours, and continued to burn for another 12 hours.* It later was found that that section of gas pipe was fabricated of scrap piping material, incorrectly welded during installation, and incorrectly documented in PG&E records.
This disaster was followed by a long series of major fires caused by faulty or aged PG&E electrical equipment, leading eventually to a second bankruptcy in 2020. We PG&E customers now have the dubious honor of having the highest electrical rates in the entire United States, as PG&E attempts to rebuild what they neglected for so many years.
And Berkshire now has the temerity to complain about "profits". Right.
* per Wickipedia

A number of years ago Giroux recommended a fellow TRP fund for folks who could not access PRWCX, and it was TRP Dividend Growth Fund PRDGX. It carries a much lower dividend rate than SCHD and is more focused on dividend growers and capital appreciation.

As for ongoing maintenance, the Yoots won't do anything they're not forced to do. Simple, transparent negligence. When I was still in New England several years ago, there was a WEEK-LONG outage after an early snowstorm in October. "Snowtober." 2011.
https://regreenspringfield.org/snowtober-surprise-springfield-in-natures-crosshairs-once-again/

@stillers
Those of us who are regular investors have often heard investment professionals state that market volatility presents investment opportunities, and over the course of the past couple weeks you are a perfect example of this, being able to take advantage of market/specific stock volatility....good for you!
I don't have the intestinal fortitude to take those risks, thus my upside may be more limited but also my potential downside.
In the past we have owned a very small piece of PRSCX, and only briefly. The adventuresome part of our portfolio currently is Mastercard which we've built slowly over the past 3+ years to 2.5% of assets and since the inception of TCAF, that is also at 2.5%. If those positions beat the market, great. But, that is not necessarily the goal - mainly to add a little measured spice to our overwhelming position in TRAIX/PRWCX.
Not sure if it has been mentioned on MFO threads, but I read recently in the WSJ that one unnamed NVDA customer accounted for 19% of their previous years sales...could it be META?

After the utility related disasters in CA and HI, I have noticed that our local ComEd/EXC is more aggressive in tree trimmings around the power lines.
I recall that just a few years ago, it didn't care about that and ignored complaints. We were not so much concerned about forest fires in Chicago (although there are rumors that a cow many moons ago burned the whole city down), but were concerned about power lines swaying badly in high winds (this is the Windy City after all).
About once a year, some poor squirrel climbs the utility pole and touches the exposed breaker-lever. After a bright flash and loud explosion, the squirrel goes to squirrel-heaven but the neighborhood is out of power for up to 2 hours. I have watched ComEd trucks fixing those after pointing out to the crew the pole from which the flash and loud explosion came from. All they do is use a 1-crew powered-lift, and a long pole to just flip the breaker-lever on, and the power for the neighborhood is back on. One would think that in this high tech age, some plastic mesh can be put around the exposed breaker-lever to avoid this. But it's easier to take care of few outages than to fix this problem. Only if there were some lawyers for squirrels demanding millions for dead squirrels, this problem would be fixed right away.
While regulators and courts may have gone overboard with new regulations and fines, it is also true that common sense maintenance was overlooked in favor corporate margins and profits.
But then there were also weather related utility disasters in PR, TX, etc, and what has been the solution for those?

This ad-hoc feature returns this week. LINK BarronsLINK
FUNDS. Use active funds to exploit the fire sale in HEALTHCARE stocks. MANY biotech stocks were selling below their cash on the balance sheets in 10/2023 and there has been a good rebound since with XBI +40% (still well below 2/2021 peak). Mentioned are BHCFX (37% SC/MC), JAGLX, PHSTX (value), PRHSX (all-caps with some risky bets), VGHCX (giant/biggest, so LC orientation). (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
ECONOMY. EVERYONE knows that BOGLE/ Vanguard started the first SP500 mutual fund. But who started the first US total market index? That was Wilshire 5000 (W5000) in 1974 by Dennis TITO/ Wilshire Associates (names after a CA blvd) and now several firms/indexers offer total stock market indexes. While a catchy “5000” has always been in the name, W5000 had 7,378 stocks in 1998, and only 3,392 in 01/2024. The number of US stocks has shrunk from M&A, LBOs, bankruptcies, and the new listings haven’t been enough. W5000 has gone through several hands and prefixes – FT-, DJ-, back to None-, and now again FT- (so, FT W5000). Vanguard was probably the 1st to offer a total stock market FUND in 1992 under a license from Wilshire Associates, but Vanguard has changed the underlying index several times – to MSCI, and now CRSP. Wilshire Associates also started the mutual fund WFIVX / WINDX in 02/1999 (current AUM $253.4 million only). Dennis Tito, 84, sold Wilshire Associates in 2021 to two private-equity firms (CEO a former FTSE executive Mark MAKEPEACE) and they spun off Wilshire Indexes to a group that includes themselves, Mark Makepeace, FT, Singapore Exchange. And obviously, Wilshire indexes have gone global. (By Allan SLOAN, an award-winning independent journalist)
Q&A/Interview. Suni HARFORD, President of Asset Management, UBS. She thrives on business challenges and financial crises. She thinks that the US stocks below the highflying mega-caps are fine. Russia-Ukraine war has been a huge setback for Europe. Asia has been dragged down by China that can turn on a dime, but Japan has been rallying. Many countries will have elections in 2024, so that should be a support for economies. Allocation 60-40 is making sense again, but she recommends carving out 20% for alternatives – real estate, private-equity, private-credit, etc. Interest rates are normalizing and aren’t high by historical standards. Customized direct indexing for separately managed accounts (SMAs) is in favor and is a big and growing business for UBS. The ESG is less popular in the US as there is lot of anti-ESG misinformation; even Texas has 30% from renewable energy now. But ESG is growing in Europe and Asia with new twists – nature-based solutions, blended investment-finance combo projects, etc. Women have come a long way in business and finance, but more are needed. This industry offers more flexible schedules but requires hard work and has good rewards. Her husband retired 12 years ago, and her UBS stint in 2017 was to be a short post-retirement job, but she may finally leave after the Credit Suisse integration.
RETIREMENT. Target-Date Funds (TDFs) were thought to be set-and-forget funds, but their short history has revealed some problems. The TDFs have adjusted by offering variations within each TDF 20XX as some wanted slightly more or less equity. So, instead of glide-path, we have glide-band. Many TDFs are passive, but several are active or with active-passive mix; some include both mutual funds and ETFs. Their bond sleeves have been stodgy, often with too much of TIPS, but some are now including HY, EMs, FR/BL, etc. (TDFs benefitted hugely from the laws that allow them to be the default options for 401k/403b/457 plan auto-signups and auto-escalations)

I found this section somewhat interesting and sparking deeper thoughts on the sector, reminding us (er, me) that proper due diligence and analysis always is required. Speaking of which, I wonder what Giroux' take on them would be since last I saw he remained bullish on utes....

Our second and even more severe earnings disappointment last year occurred at BHE. Most of its large electric-utility businesses, as well as its extensive gas pipelines, performed about as expected. But the regulatory climate in a few states has raised the specter of zero profitability or even bankruptcy (an actual outcome at California’s largest utility and a current threat in Hawaii). In such jurisdictions, it is difficult to project both earnings and asset values in what was once regarded as among the most stable industries in America.
For more than a century, electric utilities raised huge sums to finance their growth through a state-by-state promise of a fixed return on equity (sometimes with a small bonus for superior performance). With this approach, massive investments were made for capacity that would likely be required a few years down the road. That forward-looking regulation reflected the reality that utilities build generating and transmission assets that often take many years to construct. BHE’s extensive multi-state transmission project in the West was initiated in 2006 and remains some years from completion. Eventually, it will serve 10 states comprising 30% of the acreage in the continental United States.
With this model employed by both private and public-power systems, the lights stayed on, even if population growth or industrial demand exceeded expectations. The “margin of safety” approach seemed sensible to regulators, investors and the public. Now, the fixed-but-satisfactory- return pact has been broken in a few states, and investors are becoming apprehensive that such ruptures may spread. Climate change adds to their worries. Underground transmission may be required but who, a few decades ago, wanted to pay the staggering costs for such construction?
At Berkshire, we have made a best estimate for the amount of losses that have occurred. These costs arose from forest fires, whose frequency and intensity have increased – and will likely continue to increase – if convective storms become more frequent.
It will be many years until we know the final tally from BHE’s forest-fire losses and can intelligently make decisions about the desirability of future investments in vulnerable western states. It remains to be seen whether the regulatory environment will change elsewhere.
Other electric utilities may face survival problems resembling those of Pacific Gas and Electric and Hawaiian Electric. A confiscatory resolution of our present problems would obviously be a negative for BHE, but both that company and Berkshire itself are structured to survive negative surprises. We regularly get these in our insurance business, where our basic product is risk assumption, and they will occur elsewhere. Berkshire can sustain financial surprises but we will not knowingly throw good money after bad.
Whatever the case at Berkshire, the final result for the utility industry may be ominous: Certain utilities might no longer attract the savings of American citizens and will be forced to adopt the public-power model. Nebraska made this choice in the 1930s and there are many public-power operations throughout the country. Eventually, voters, taxpayers and users will decide which model they prefer.
When the dust settles, America’s power needs and the consequent capital expenditure will be staggering. I did not anticipate or even consider the adverse developments in regulatory returns and, along with Berkshire’s two partners at BHE, I made a costly mistake in not doing so.

@WABAC:
Great comments about "stuff" and NVDA's stuff is clearly different and dominant at this point.
AMD is the other company that I note is being widely identified as the one company that may be the first to truly challenge NVDA's top spot. So we are watching AMD as a possible trade or LT holding.
Here's one of the most recent articles I've read on all that:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidia-is-the-magnificent-1-now-but-these-rivals-are-closing-in-3a382a8b?mod=home-page
Excerpt:
The competition isn’t singular either. While Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD, -2.94% CEO Lisa Su has launched the most direct competition to Nvidia’s high-performance GPUs — citing a forecast of around $4 billion for the AMD’s new MI300 GPU — the competition is coming from an array of places that include a number of Nvidia’s largest and most important customers.
See also:
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/magnificent-seven-stock-poised-most-091400084.html
Excerpt:
Nvidia's success is also attracting competition. Advanced Micro Devices, for example, argues that its newest AI chips are as good as Nvidia's. "Magnificent Seven" members Meta and Microsoft are two large customers that plan to use AMD's chips to reduce their reliance on Nvidia. Several of Nvidia's big customers are developing their own AI chips as well.
=====================================
And thanks for the "dinky linky" comparing FSCSX to FSELX, two funds we know very well.
Both funds incepted on 07/29/85.
FWIW, we were enamored with both since their inceptions but at that time somewhat favored FSCSX. But unable to pick one at that time that we thought would be the best LT, we decided to venture into both as Core positions at about 5% each.
That was pretty much my MO for many years - if I couldn't decide between two options, BUY both. That resulted in us owning about 2x (and more) as many funds as we now own! That all began to change for us about a decade or so ago when we started to whittle down our funds to the current baker's dozen.
FSELX began to outpace FSCSX about 10 years ago. We decided to consolidate those two positions, and don't ask me exactly how!, chose FSELX for a 10% Core holding at about that time. In retrospect, truly one of my "blind squirrel" getting lucky moments!
If you adjust your chart for the past 10 and/or 5 years, you will see vastly different TR performance. That said, I was kicking and screaming as we dropped FSCSX, but our methodology/strategy had changed and we parted ways with it and several other old, LT favorite OEFs.
So, for better or worse between the two funds, we chose to ride with FSELX and are continuing that MO currently. When FSELX rises above 10%, we shave it and spread its gains to broader based tech holdings. On the flip side, after it suffers one of its inevitable BIG DROPS, we routinely ADD to it to bring it back to ~10%. The former has been happening a bunch more than the latter over those years!
While the other AI options noted in the OP article are intriguing to us, we just can't muster enough drive to ADD any of them. Really hoping for some more comments/analysis on them to get a better feel for which, if any, are worth venturing into. If/after you examine their holdings, please share your thoughts on them here! TIA!

I haven't examined the holdings of those etf's.
I do think there will be more to AI than chips or servers.
Here is a dinky linky to a back test of FSELX versus FSCSX.
That reinforces my non-expert opinion formed after reading nearly forty years of the business pages of the SF Chomicle covering a nearby valley. Chips and servers are stuff. And, ISTM, stuff doesn't always hold up quite so well.
I recently added a small slice of SMH to the taxable. I already held a larger slice of FSCSX. But your comments got me to thinking it wouldn't kill me to have a chip slice.
I also own a tech dividend fund, maybe not the best one. But I think some parts of the tech world are approaching the status of utilities or consumer durables. I wanted to be there when that happens.
YMMV

Hi @stillers Have at it with tech. related. I'm with you in this area of investing. We have remained U.S. centered with our investments for many years and have whatever foreign pieces make a good fit in the tech. area; as with BOTZ (robotics), IHI and FSMEX both being (medical tech), genomics, FTEC (Fidelity tech.), FHLC (Fidelity Health ETF) and the broad based growth of FBCG (Fidelity blue chip companies). We've not been inclined towards value, small cap, international or EM. We held junk bond funds for a period near the bottom of the market melt in 2008 and for several months afterward, and have held IG bond funds and still do; as well as money market now at about 5% yield. We're about 40% equity. Although we've done dollar cost averaging now into funds; not unlike our early days with IRA's and 401k's. Good enough for now, at this house.

FBCG Top holdings
Top 10 holdings AS OF Dec-31-2023
59.72%
of 159 total
MSFT Microsoft Corp 10.15%
NVDA NVIDIA Corp 9.81%
AAPL Apple Inc 9.63%
AMZN Amazon.com Inc 9.10%
GOOGL Alphabet Inc Class A 6.64%
META Meta Platforms Inc Class A 4.99%
UBER Uber Technologies Inc 2.62%
LLY Eli Lilly and Co 2.34%
NFLX Netflix Inc 2.22%
SNAP Snap Inc Class A 2.21%