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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Harbor International Growth Fund will be liquidated
    B-G's funds have been out of style for the past few years. It's not just with HAIGX and B-G's sleeve of VWIGX. M*'s automated analysis notes: "The parent firm's five-year risk-adjusted success ratio [is] 21%". See, M*'s quant analyses are not entirely useless. :-)
    HAIGX is a clone of B-G's BGCSX. 44 holdings overlap, all of which are in each fund's top 50 (M* portfolio tool). Same set of managers. And no management investment at BGCSX either.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    "Lived through 20% interest rates in the 70s or 80s."
    Made a killing on that... bonds out of Utah (Mormons) to build a huge electric generating facility at Four Corners. Terrific income until they were called a couple of years later. It wasn't until fairly recently that I became aware that I had helped build an enormous coal-fired generating complex. Who knew?
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    I am somewhat amused by all of the criticism regarding BofA. I came to the same conclusion over fifty years ago. When BofA took over the bank that held our mortgage I walked into our local branch, was granted an audience with the surly unfriendly woman who had replaced the former pleasant and helpful manager, handed her a check (on a different bank) and paid off the mortgage then and there. Haven't had any traffic with BofA since.
    When I was a youngster (1940s/50s) BofA was headquartered in San Francisco. It had taken over and replaced a historic and outstanding local bank: The Bank of Italy, started by A.P. Giannini, a revered local businessman. After the earthquake of 1906 Mr. Giannini loaded all of his customer's money into horse-drawn wagons and transported it down the San Francisco peninsula to his own home, where it was safe from the fire which later consumed his bank offices in San Francisco's North Beach enclave.
    image
    From Wickipedia:
    A. P. Giannini was an American banker who founded the Bank of Italy, which eventually became Bank of America. Giannini is credited as the inventor of many modern banking practices. Most notably, Giannini was one of the first bankers to offer banking services to middle-class Americans, mainly Italian immigrants, rather than only the upper class. He also pioneered the holding company structure and established one of the first modern trans-national institutions.
    My father, who was also Italian, had nothing but contempt for the BofA, which had turned a friendly and helpful local bank into what you folks are still observing today. Boy, was he ever right.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    WCPNX. 5.6 years duration. I like what I see there.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Long term bonds (treasuries or other) are often regarded as useful primarily for placing bets on interest rate movements, i.e. speculating. Most of the time long term bonds don't offer enough extra yield over intermediate term bonds to be worth the risk as investments.
    Currently, though the yield curve is largely inverted, at least you're getting a little risk premium with longs over intermediates.
    https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/
    Pushing on a string may not be the best metaphor, but the Fed pushes on the short end of the curve. That end has a lot of room to go down without long end yields necessarily dropping.

    10 year Treasuries are still under 4%, while their long term historical average is 4.25%. There's not much room for 30 years to drop in yield if they're going to stay above 10 year rates. 30 year Treasuries are now also below their historical average of 4.74%.
    We've already seen a drop in 30 year rates. Mortgages have dropped half a percent percent in the past month and are not expected to decline further this year, even with an anticipated Fed rate cut.
    https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/mortgage-interest-rates-forecast/
    All of this is not to say that long term rates won't drop a lot more. Or they might not. When and how much are also open questions.
    Me, I'm sticking with intermediates. Win a little, lose a little, they offer more stability as backup for cash in the 3-7 year timeframe.
    Side note: I suspect that cap gains on Treasuries are not state income tax exempt. While I have been unsuccessful in finding writing one way or the other, there are many sources documenting the fact that cap gains on muni bonds are state taxable. ISTM the situations are analogous.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    Advantage Fidelity:
    The nice thing about Schwab ATM is the fact you can take out money around the world and they will refund you the fee by the end of the month. (Confirmed; see footnote 8)
    At Fidelity "The reimbursement will be credited to the account the same day the ATM fee is debited." (See footnote 2.)
    About Fidelity's disclaimer that it may not cover the 1% network exchange fee ... No one seems to have actually been charged. That includes me - I did a test at Heathrow a few years ago - same ATM, same withdrawal amount; compared Schwab and Fidelity, no difference.
    The Finance Buff, Fidelity Debit Card Foreign Transaction Fee on ATM Withdrawals
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    LOL - Wish it were that simple! However, I have not held much cash for many years. I understand that the hypothetical, highly rumored, speculated and anticipated “Fed rate cut” would impact those who have been sitting in cash for the past year (while the S&P 500 rose 28%).
    I’m trying to get my head around where to cull a little risk without dumping any apples out of the cart. Have a substantial TOD position in PRHYX (short-term muni junk fund). I’d have expected to have spent that on a new vehicle or home infrastructure by now - but haven’t for various reasons. I’m thinking next week I may move a good portion of that into SPAXX (money market fund) as a quality upgrade to my fixed income posture. (All 3 accounts, TOD + 2 IRAs, are considered as one for allocation purposes.)
    If things get any crazier next week I might even move a bit of IRA cash into SPDN (2X inverse S&P) as a downside hedge. Prefer that to selling out of any major positions because I think they are good long term holds and not nearly as “bubbly” as the major indexes. I’d liken the froth atop them to be more like the head of foam on a stein of good beer. (Don’t dump out the beer because of the froth.)
    My fixed income funds now (aside from cash):
    - PRIHX
    - WEA
    - LSST
    - CVSIX - Arbitrage fund / Seeks to produce bond-like returns with lower volatility
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    I vaguely recall Schwab saying years ago that some of its branches (largely west coast?) functioned as banks as well as brokerages. That doesn't seem to be true now - Schwab Bank seems to be a pure internet bank.
    Fidelity used to have pseudo ATMs in their branches where you could deposit checks, but not get cash. Those also vanished years ago. I guess the cost of maintaining something that did only one task, did it only marginally faster than the human being at the desk, and was limited to branch hours made no sense. Nice when it worked, though.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    @BaluBalu : I've been with BMO for a few years since they bought out my former bank.
    I had to open a checking account that pays .o5 % to get my MM account to pay 2.2% .
    I just moved money over to Schwab to get a better rate!
    This week I received notice that a CD is maturing & that it would rollover at the "new" rate. I don't remember that it was roll-able , but will probably be sending that money elsewhere, unless they can come up with 5%. If my SS & pension checks weren't going there, I'd be gone.
    Yes they're friendly bankers, but I wouldn't recommend them to anyone!
    Let me add that after I opened the checking account I received 4 starter checks. Wouldn't you think if they were friendly, they would send out a box of 40 or fifty checks ?! No they would order them & then charge the account, as that is what happens with the MM account. Then I stop in at the bank & see if they'll eat the checking printing charge & they do, but why the run around?
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    I am exploring options to consolidate my banking and brokerage relationships.
    Have you guys dealt with BoA banking?
    I have been a client of Merrill for more than 10 years and hence I have a BoA checking (minimal activity) and BoA credit cards.
    Today, I went into the BoA branch to open a new account (my Merrill contact had set up an appointment with her banking guys). Dealing with them was like dealing with the Government office. Compared to BoA banking, all the complaints I hear about Schwab and other brokerages seem pedestrian.
    If anyone here has a self directed BMO brokerage account, please share your experience.
    (My family has a small relationship on the banking side (walking distance to my home) and the BMO branch people are always very customer focused and the manager sits in the open for people to go talk to.)
  • CrossingBridge Low Duration High Yield Fund to change name and changes to investment strategies
    I'm not worried about the fund investing in SPACS at all if that is where DS finds value. I've held SPC for over 2 years in my conservative withdrawal bucket and have found it to be a low volatility, steady eddy, positive trending ETF (5% 1Y return as of 7/31). If Mr. Sherman can find value in using SPACs to enhance return in CBLDX, I'm all for it. I might, though, sell my slug of SPC and add that money to my existing CBLDX position and let David decide on the fund's positions and use of SPACs.
  • CrossingBridge Low Duration High Yield Fund to change name and changes to investment strategies
    FWIW His " Pre Merger Spac " ETF SPC has been a somewhat low yielding ( 4% last year) steady eddy for over three years now. They aim to buy SPACs that have lots of cash before a merger and if there is no merger before the timeline the cash has to returned
    I would have thought most SPACS would have been merged or closed by now but guess not
  • CrossingBridge Low Duration High Yield Fund to change name and changes to investment strategies
    This section is also new:
    ...will construct a portfolio for the Fund that the Adviser believes has the potential to generate a high level of current income, while maintaining a fixed income portfolio duration of 2.0 or less.
    Here is the old section:
    The Fund typically focuses on instruments that have short durations (i.e., have
    an expected duration of three years or less from the time of purchase through maturity, call, or corporate action).
    https://info.crossingbridgefunds.com/hubfs/Regulatory/CrossingBridge_Prospectus.pdf?v=1723830514184
  • Repost - 5 Star Bond Fund HOBIX loses over 2.70% in four trading days this week
    Those were ultra-SY bond funds around GFC and the category then had lots of ST-HY. Schwab, Fido and others had them. This Category was killed by the GFC.
    A new category reemerged a few years later as ultra-ST with inv-grade bonds only. So, the ultra-ST bond funds of today aren't comparable to those around the GFC.
  • thinking about correlations within my non-retirement portfolio
    During 2022, the correlation between stocks and bonds approached 1.0 when the FED raised rate. Other time period, the correlation was much smaller. Having said that, one has to look at longer periods, 5 years or more to smooth out the year of 2022.
    Another parameter worth to look at is recovery period under MFO Premium. For allocation funds with flexible or tactical mandates, recovery period reveals how the funds perform through the drawdowns.
  • Repost - 5 Star Bond Fund HOBIX loses over 2.70% in four trading days this week
    HOSIX is only 2+ year old. So, it has none of the baggage of HOBIX and much of M* data is NA. It's also mostly structured credit and its average credit quality of BB is lower than that for HOBIX (BBB).
    TestFol data with 12-mo rolling periods looks OK. HOSIX-12
    The boutique firm Holbrook has only 2 funds - HOBIX (8+ years old) and HOSIX (2+ years old).
    https://www.morningstar.com/asset-management-companies/holbrook-holdings-BN00000J2X/funds
  • If DJT gets to $1.38 ...
    @hank Be very leery of those FV ratings on stocks offered up by different sources. My own experience says they don’t know what they’re talking about. I believe in this case they were stuck in some kind of ”time warp”. Because small caps has suffered for many years compared to the S&P they must have allowed that to influence their own perception of value.
    Yup. I depend on stats from Stock Rover a lot, as well as checking Morningstar. Seems to me the Stock Rover site offers more, and more conveniently. At your fingertips. Fair Value at S.R. is distinguished from 12-month Target Price. Good to keep in mind. Still, Mr. Market has been known to be unpredictable. I also like to check out the Barron's webpage to investigate specific items, ratings, P/E and P/B and P/S. Short volume, Short percent of float. (Don't like a lotta Shorts in my soup.)
  • If DJT gets to $1.38 ...
    I learned the hard way that those “fair value” ratings are worthless.
    Bought 2 very depressed small-cap stocks more or less on intuition + personal knowledge of the companies June 26. (Posted in the B/S thread.) I later checked the ratings at M*, WSJ and Barron’s. All 3 said the stocks were already above fair value when I bought them and that neither warranted higher than an a 3 out of 5 as investment prospects.
    A week or two later the Russell blasted off, carrying those 2 holdings along for the ride. I sold in only 10 days time after both had jumped about 8-10% because I trusted those 3 publications over my own instincts. Had I hung on they would have jumped at least another 10% by now. Likely even more.
    Be very leery of those FV ratings on stocks offered up by different sources. My own experience says they don’t know what they’re talking about. I believe in this case they were stuck in some kind of ”time warp”. Because small caps has suffered for many years compared to the S&P they must have allowed that to influence their own perception of value.
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    "Is this a buy and forget fund, as I am looking for one? If this is not a buy and forget fund, what purpose does this fund serve in a portfolio?
    I would never buy an OEF (traditional mutual fund) that I didn’t consider a long-term hold (“buy and forget” to use @BaluBalu’s words).
    Luthold as a money manager has a great long term record. I believe they were primarily engaged in research / analysis for various big players (and well respected) before launching their own mutual funds. But nothing is guaranteed. The manager turnover is the main reason M* recently downgraded its rating of LCORX to silver from gold. Interestingly, LCOR retains their gold rating.
    To tread a bit further out onto the thin ice … The fund replaces DODBX in my 10-segment (equal weight) portfolio. I believe DODBX to be a better moderate risk long term hold. They’ve refined their process in recent years to reduce the potential for losses in bear markets and their fees are much more compelling. Not to argue the merits of each. Just perhaps to address BaluBalu’s question of where it might fit in a portfolio.
    Why did I get out of DODBX after a couple decades? I decided about a year ago to consolidate all holdings at Fidelity. While DODBX transferred in OK, it became awkward, to say the least, to rebalance it or increase its weighting without getting hit with a fee. Wasn’t worth the aggravation for me.
    I believe funds to an extent are captive to the economic environment of the day. No manager can prepare for every eventuality. While I loath the P-word infiltrating the investment part of the board, I think in about 84 days the economic / financial / social / political backdrop that now seems normal will transition to a much riskier more difficult environment.
    My last comment in this thread. Got a couple bucks riding on tonight’s Dodgers / Brewers game. :)
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    @Hank
    I was using VBIAX as an example of a passive 60/40 because it can be bought vs. an abstract index. I have a brokerage account at Vanguard but with no holdings because I abandoned Vanguard many years back. VBIAX is available at Fidelity (for a fee, not NTF). Fidelity equivalents of VBIAX appear to be FBALX, FPURX.
    I don't do the fundamental and strategy analysis you do because I don't feel qualified to do so. I rely heavily on Sortino and R-Squared metrics and tilt towards investments with high Sortino and low R-Squared.