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GMO is quoted on the gloomy side:Ultra-low interest rates have led to a massive increase in debt issuance by US companies, which has surpassed $13.6tn over the past decade, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, a trade body.
This has been accompanied by a deterioration in the quality of the corporate bonds held by the Agg, with more than half rated as BBB at a time when US companies’ capacity to service their debt from earnings has weakened
And Vanguard is more sanguine:“The Agg is a portfolio that has turned prudence on its head,” said Peter Chiappinelli, a member of GMO’s asset allocation team.
It's just my guess that Barrickman is contemplating the mountains of government debt out-weighing the risks from the corporate side."Expected returns for fixed income are modest, but this makes it all the more important to remember why you hold bonds in a portfolio in the first place - as ballast for portfolio’s equity risk. This hasn’t changed,” said Josh Barrickman, Americas head of fixed income indexing at Vanguard.
International Markets:The good news is that, as we describe below in detail, we still see a lot of value in the “great unloved,” or the middle part of the market that actually looks attractively priced against today’s low interest rate backdrop, particularly if significant operational improvement can be implemented.
The Asian Millennial:Non-U.S. markets are now cheap enough that, even with their flawed compositions (which is why we prefer Private Equity to Public Equity outside the U.S.; see below for details), they warrant investor attention for at least a cyclical “catch-up trade.” Also, central bank liquidity trends are now generally more in favor of international markets.
For your investing and reading pleasure:this year we want to allocate additional dollars to vehicles that are capturing the explosion in buying power that is being unleashed in Asia. By way of background, there are now a total of 826 million millennials in Asia, compared to 67 million in the United States. Because of this segment’s heft, total consumption in Asia actually passed that of Europe in 2011, and it is poised to exceed the U.S. by 2022. How should one invest behind this theme? See Section IV for more details, but personal financial services, healthcare services, wellness/beauty, healthier foods, and food safety should all be major long-term beneficiaries of the environment we are envisioning.
https://morningstar.com/articles/964406/time-for-a-second-look-at-reitsAs of the end of 2018, the U.S. commercial real estate market totaled an estimated $16 trillion, compared with about $45.8 trillion for equities and $39.2 trillion for outstanding debt based on 2017 data from the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. In other words, real estate translates into a roughly 16% slice of the total market pie. Not coincidentally, pensions and endowments often target 10% to 20% of their total assets for real-estate holdings....Given that real estate is both highly cyclical and subject to periodic downturns, though, I’d hesitate to recommend investing quite that much.
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