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2023 2024
Other ordinary income: $70,000 $70,000
Roth conversion: $ 0 $60,000
Less std deduction: ($27,700) ($27,700)
Taxable ord income: $42,300 $102,300
Cap gains: $50,000 $ 0
Ordinary income tax: 10% x $22,000+ 10% x $22,000+
12% x $20,300 12% x $67,450 +
22% x (102300-89450)
=$4,876 =$13,121
Cap gains tax: 15% x
($92,300 - $89,250)
=$457.50 =$ 0
--------- ---------
Total tax: $5,123.50 $13,121
With evenly split income/conversions
2023 2024
Other ordinary income: $70,000 $70,000
Roth conversion: $30,000 $30,000
Less std deduction: ($27,700) ($27,700)
Taxable ord income: $72,300 $72,300
Cap gains: $25,000 $25,000
Ordinary income tax: 10% x $22,000+ 10% x $22,000+
12% x $50,300 12% x $50,300
=$8,236 =$8,236
Cap gains tax: 15% x 15% x
($97,300 - $89,250) ($97,300 - $89,250)
=$1,207.50 =$1,207.50
--------- ---------
Total tax: $9,443.50 $9,443.50
[snip]
@hank,
Good questions!
I'm not an expert on robo-advisors.
I recently worked with Vanguard Personal Advisor Services (PAS)
to create a financial plan as a trial exercise.
My thoughts are below.
- Are these robo’s aware that bonds recently experienced a 30 year bull market? That aberration affected not only bond returns. It also likely distorted other asset performance as well. Are robos capable of distinguishing between what worked over the last 30 years during falling interest rates and what might work over the next 2 or 3 decades?
Vanguard PAS uses the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM) to forecast returns for stocks,
bonds, short-term reserves as well as inflation rates.
The VCCM uses a statistical analysis of historical data for interest rates, inflation,
and other risk factors for global equities, fixed income, and commodity markets
to generate forward-looking distributions of expected long-term returns.
I don't know what models other robo-advisors are using nor which factors they consider.
- Does the robo take into consideration the difference between very low / negative inflation over the preceding 2 or 3 decades and the likely inflation scenario going forward? Can it comprehend and factor in how that monumental sea change might turn return on different assets on their heads? Assets that outperformed over a period of low inflation may not be the best ones in a radically different economic backdrop.
Please refer to my answer above.
- Are these robos aware of the growing friction with China, Russia and how that may affect EM investments? Do they take into account the rise of populism around the world and growing political instability in many Western nations?
I don't think robo-advisors' models factor in rising populism or frictions with China/Russia.
- Would robos have correctly foreseen the tech revolution in say 1975 (excuse the oxymoron) and would they have recommended the best investments over the next quarter century? Can they properly assess the impact AI may / may not have on investments?
Robo-advisors could not have predicted the tech revolution nor can they properly assess the impact of AI.
- Can a robo correctly identify a bubble in an asset class and warn its clients to steer clear in a timely manner? (By definition, most humans cannot.) Or, might the robo have had you invested in Japan in the mid-90?
Robo-advisors can not identify bubbles in an asset class beforehand.
However, their models may underweight "overvalued" assets.
[snip]
That tells investors who the players are and what they do without getting into the legal "mumbo-jumbo". But does the average investor care about even this much? The SEC doesn't think so. That's why it offers funds the option of providing stripped down (IMHO fairly useless) summary prospectuses. If this simplified, non-cross-referenced doc isn't there, blame the fund sponsor, not the SEC. (Until a fund goes live, there doesn't seem to be much point in a fund expending time and effort composing a summary prospectus.)T. Rowe Price [Associates] entered into a subadvisory agreement with Price Investment Management under which Price Investment Management is authorized to trade securities and make discretionary investment and voting decisions with respect to all or a portion of the fund’s portfolio. Price Investment Management is an SEC-registered investment adviser that provides investment management services to individual and institutional investors and sponsors; and serves as adviser and subadviser to registered investment companies, institutional separate accounts, and common trust funds. Price Investment Management is a subsidiary of T. Rowe Price
The users have the ability to input a number of variables into the model and it generates the probability of outcomes. That model works well with index funds but not so much with active managed funds. Nevertheless, I came to appreciate asset allocation as the most direct factor on long term return. @lynnbolin 2021 also mentioned Financial Engines in a recent post.
Is this the example you were shown?
I just got off the call with this guy [at Wealth Enhancement Group]. I was generally impressed. ( While he was not calling form his yacht, he was calling from second home in Maine!) They have a model which will calculate Roth Conversions and expected taxes with breakeven points ( Example says 2040!). Assumes 5% return in taxable and 7% in Roth
That is certainly in line with the industry:
They will do financial plan free of any fees, but of course want to manage your money. The fee is fairly reasonable at 1% for first 1,000,000 up to 0.7% over 5,000,000, so in line with most firms that do portfolio management only, and a bit higher than many mutual funds.

As @hank observed, Vanguard builds a glidepath. I noted in the Robo advisor thread that per M* this is unusual for low cost (i.e. robo) advisors. Also note that that 20% international is out of 60% stock, i.e. 1/3 of equity is foreign. Vanguard, being enthusiastic about matching market attributes, observes that 40% of the equity market is abroad.
I agree the Vanguard info is pretty comprehensive, but to me it is predictably Vanguard, ie 60/40, 20% International, tax loss harvesting. Not sure that is worth their fees which I think are 0.3% correct ?
Vanguard has defined five risk levels for asset allocation schedules:Those suggested allocations for VG PAS in 60s & 70s (60-40), early-80s (55-45), late-80s & beyond (50-50) are much higher than those for target-date funds (TDFs), including Vanguard TDFs. Of course, the questionnaire for PAS determined the specifics.
Most TDFs have 50-50 in 60s (retirement age) and then flatten out to 20-80/40-60 over several years. TDFs also have issues. But I am just noticing the huge discrepancy between the VG PAS recommendations and TDFs.
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