At what moment? He never said that there would be an
imminent collapse, which is what I wrote would have IMHO a hack prediction. Even then, just a hack prediction, not necessarily the writing of a hack. What he demonstrated was that admissions of error are difficult to make; that's not bias.
Hacks often start with preconceived notions, cherry pick data, and disregard what that data represents or even the data itself. There's a difference between a well reasoned position piece and a hack writing.
There's an old saying that a house is not a home. The Fed presents data on its
Home Ownership Affordability Monitor. It includes "all single-family attached and detached properties combined" (quote is from the Fed site). Nowhere does the Fed use the word "house".
No time frame appears in the quote above for the 30% figure. But since a second source (Bloomberg) is offered, and that source uses time frames including Jan 2020 - Oct 2023 and Q1 2020 - Q3 2023, we can work with that.
The Fed site actually says that median existing home repeat sale prices rose from $264.00K in Jan 2020 to $374.167K in Sept 2023 (a 41.7% increase). This isn't close to 30%. The point here is not whether the actual number is greater or less than 30%. Rather it is that giving "supporting" sources that actually conflict with one's asserted numbers is something hacks do.
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It was suggested that the ones hurt by this 30% increase in prices (presumably since Jan 2020) are largely first-time house (sigh) buyers. Instead of relying on shock value (another hack ploy) and disregarding counterbalancing income increases, let's compare the increases in costs and income.
"The typical age of a first-time homebuyer is 33
years old"
https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/first-time-homebuyer-statistics/Average wages rise (inflation, productivity, etc.). We've already seen that the increase in wages over this period is around 20%. So a typical individual worker aged 33 received a nominal wage 20% higher in 2023 than a typical individual worker aged 33 back in 2020. (We can use age-specific percentage increases instead if you have them.)
Now, independent of market wage increases (the 20%), individual workers' wages increase as they age - due to promotions, due to more experienced workers receiving higher wages generally. (Though above age 60, wages often decline with age.)
Let's take this step by step, starting with a typical wage earner, age 30 in 2020. That worker earned about $40,540. We know this because when we increase by 20% (the national average increase in wages since 2020), we get a typical wage of $48,650. That happens to be the typical wage earned by a 30 year old in 2023.
https://dqydj.com/average-median-top-income-by-age-percentiles/Since 2020 this typical worker has aged three
years and is now receiving the wages of a typical 33 year old: $52,650. So in nominal terms this worker's wages have increased about 29.9%, the same as housing costs have increased.
IOW, despite the increase in existing housing costs, this typical worker is no worse off than he was three
years ago with respect to housing.
The age factor is something often missed in analyses. It's true that a 33 year old today is less likely to afford a home than a 33 year old three
years ago. Hence statistics like the Home Opportunity Affordability Monitor show a declining rate of affordability.
But at the level of the individual, the situation is better. As people age, they are supposed to be able to afford more. Right now, they can't afford
more housing than they could three
years ago, but neither are they stuck affording
less.
As a nation, housing costs have risen bigly. That takes some of the bloom off "the American dream". But at the individual level, people are better off with respect to some purchases and not worse off with respect to
first time home buying.
Old age is a different story. To the extent that people rely on savings (as opposed to inflation-adjusted Social Security), rising housing costs (including rent, property taxes, maintenance, etc.) are not a pretty sight. And not just recently. It's a mistake to assume that people who own their homes are in good shape.
As the largest expenditure in most older households’ budgets, housing costs figure heavily into financial security in older age. Incomes decline in older age, and not just at the point of retirement: while the 2017 median income of pre-retirement households ages 50 to 64 was $71,400, it was $46,500 for households ages 65 to 79 and just $29,000 for households ages 80 and older, according to analysis of data from the American Community Survey; and author tabulations. While these numbers show a pattern across all older households, individual households frequently see declines in incomes as they age [the opposite of what happens with first-time buyers]. As a result, affordability concerns can emerge as a new problem even for those in their 80s and older.
https://generations.asaging.org/older-adults-aging-place-affordable-safe