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https://personal.vanguard.com/pub/Pdf/p030.pdf?2210171184Dormant Accounts
If your account has no activity in it for a period of time, Vanguard may be
required to transfer [escheat] it to a state under the state’s abandoned property law,
subject to potential federal or state withholding taxes.
After all, JHEQX has quarterly index-option rolls (options are NOT on individual stock holdings). Fund is huge at $16+ billion (AUM peak was in 2021; [...] See this brochure for explanation of index-options overlay to achieve 60-40 effect from all stock portfolio. IMO, why not just go for a real/genuine 60-40 fund?
https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/americas/us/en/literature/brochure/BRO-HE.pdf
2023 2024
Other ordinary income: $70,000 $70,000
Roth conversion: $ 0 $60,000
Less std deduction: ($27,700) ($27,700)
Taxable ord income: $42,300 $102,300
Cap gains: $50,000 $ 0
Ordinary income tax: 10% x $22,000+ 10% x $22,000+
12% x $20,300 12% x $67,450 +
22% x (102300-89450)
=$4,876 =$13,121
Cap gains tax: 15% x
($92,300 - $89,250)
=$457.50 =$ 0
--------- ---------
Total tax: $5,123.50 $13,121
With evenly split income/conversions
2023 2024
Other ordinary income: $70,000 $70,000
Roth conversion: $30,000 $30,000
Less std deduction: ($27,700) ($27,700)
Taxable ord income: $72,300 $72,300
Cap gains: $25,000 $25,000
Ordinary income tax: 10% x $22,000+ 10% x $22,000+
12% x $50,300 12% x $50,300
=$8,236 =$8,236
Cap gains tax: 15% x 15% x
($97,300 - $89,250) ($97,300 - $89,250)
=$1,207.50 =$1,207.50
--------- ---------
Total tax: $9,443.50 $9,443.50
[snip]
@hank,
Good questions!
I'm not an expert on robo-advisors.
I recently worked with Vanguard Personal Advisor Services (PAS)
to create a financial plan as a trial exercise.
My thoughts are below.
- Are these robo’s aware that bonds recently experienced a 30 year bull market? That aberration affected not only bond returns. It also likely distorted other asset performance as well. Are robos capable of distinguishing between what worked over the last 30 years during falling interest rates and what might work over the next 2 or 3 decades?
Vanguard PAS uses the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM) to forecast returns for stocks,
bonds, short-term reserves as well as inflation rates.
The VCCM uses a statistical analysis of historical data for interest rates, inflation,
and other risk factors for global equities, fixed income, and commodity markets
to generate forward-looking distributions of expected long-term returns.
I don't know what models other robo-advisors are using nor which factors they consider.
- Does the robo take into consideration the difference between very low / negative inflation over the preceding 2 or 3 decades and the likely inflation scenario going forward? Can it comprehend and factor in how that monumental sea change might turn return on different assets on their heads? Assets that outperformed over a period of low inflation may not be the best ones in a radically different economic backdrop.
Please refer to my answer above.
- Are these robos aware of the growing friction with China, Russia and how that may affect EM investments? Do they take into account the rise of populism around the world and growing political instability in many Western nations?
I don't think robo-advisors' models factor in rising populism or frictions with China/Russia.
- Would robos have correctly foreseen the tech revolution in say 1975 (excuse the oxymoron) and would they have recommended the best investments over the next quarter century? Can they properly assess the impact AI may / may not have on investments?
Robo-advisors could not have predicted the tech revolution nor can they properly assess the impact of AI.
- Can a robo correctly identify a bubble in an asset class and warn its clients to steer clear in a timely manner? (By definition, most humans cannot.) Or, might the robo have had you invested in Japan in the mid-90?
Robo-advisors can not identify bubbles in an asset class beforehand.
However, their models may underweight "overvalued" assets.
[snip]
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