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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Vanguard Admiral Minimums
    Accounts at financial institutions are considered to be inactive if there has been no activity (aside from automatic divs/interest/CD renewals) for some period of time, often 12 months.
    The institution continues to hold your assets, though it may "close" the account, or it may prohibit all transactions (including cashing checks), or it may simply start charging inactivity fees. (Vanguard does not charge inactivity fees.)
    There is some confusion about the term "dormancy". Some institutions say that an inactive account is "dormant". That is how Vanguard is using the term according to your post. Others wait until the next phase (below) before calling the account dormant.
    A financial institution is required to turn over ("escheat") account assets to your state after some longer period of time. Depending on the state, this is three years or longer. Some institutions say that this is when an account becomes "dormant". Vanguard uses "dormancy" this way in its prospectuses, e.g. for VMFXX:
    Dormant Accounts
    If your account has no activity in it for a period of time, Vanguard may be
    required to transfer [escheat] it to a state under the state’s abandoned property law,
    subject to potential federal or state withholding taxes.
    https://personal.vanguard.com/pub/Pdf/p030.pdf?2210171184
    Until the assets escheat, you can recover inactive account assets by notifying the institution (Vanguard) that you are still alive, still interested in the assets, and go about reactivating the account (or possibly opening a new account).
    Note that the rules are more forgiving for retirement accounts. It's a mess that I'm not going to sift through now.
    https://news.bloombergtax.com/daily-tax-report/faqs-on-unclaimed-property-aspects-of-retirement-assets
    Once burned, twice shy. Wells Fargo did this to me several years ago. Ever since then I've kept a log of the last time I contacted the institution (and what constitutes "contact") or conducted a transaction. When it gets close to a year (even if the institution says it doesn't care about inactivity, just escheatment), I will contact the institution. Or make a $5 deposit, or something.
  • How to see pre-2000s mutual fund documents?
    As much as I delight in old historical information, [Anyone want a copy of the 1979 S&P Stock Market Encyclopedia ? (Yes, '79, not '97)] for Mutual Fund performance anything older than 5 or 6 years is obsolete. Unless of course you are looking for something other than performance, e.g. holdings, management, auditors, transfer agents, repositories, etc...
    Good Luck on your quests.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (10/01/23)
    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:16 Frozen Housing Market
    06:41 7 Years Gone (Bonds)
    09:14 Fed on Hold (Fed Policy)
    12:27 Unaffordable Healthcare
    16:18 King Dollar (Currencies)
    19:24 Know What You Own (TIPS)
    22:12 Indices Masking Weakness (Equity Markets)
    23:43 The Freedom Premium
    28:15 The 6% CD is Here
    Video
    Blog
  • JP Morgan Fund Could Rattle Markets Friday
    After all, JHEQX has quarterly index-option rolls (options are NOT on individual stock holdings). Fund is huge at $16+ billion (AUM peak was in 2021; [...] See this brochure for explanation of index-options overlay to achieve 60-40 effect from all stock portfolio. IMO, why not just go for a real/genuine 60-40 fund?
    https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/americas/us/en/literature/brochure/BRO-HE.pdf

    Good question, yogi.
    Quickly checking out a few well established moderate allocation (60/40) funds like VWELX, JABAX and FBALX, for example, shows that JHEQX has a better risk/reward profile.
    JHEQX has not only a better performance record over the past 1, 3 and 5 years than VWELX and JABAX, but also a significantly lower standard deviation, 8.7 vs. 12.3, respectively.
    While FBALX has a slightly better performance, its standard deviation is significantly higher at 13.8.
    As a retired investor, I prefer to invest in funds with lower standard deviations if the total returns of similar funds are more or less the same, never mind if they are less.
    Good luck,
    Fred
  • JP Morgan Fund Could Rattle Markets Friday
    +1 Yogi / I guess I’m even more confused than @Old_Joe claims to be. I saw it first in Bloomberg. Appears the same story makes the circuit every few years. I’d swear I’ve seen a Reuters piece dated 2023 - but can’t find it this morning.
  • The top 8 Companies in S&P 500 are carrying the index
    It's a known fact for years that the high tech leads the market and why QQQ made so much more than SPY. See the last 13 years.
    https://schrts.co/CJwZWTcf
    The above stocks are all high tech, except BRK.B but this one has so much of Apple anyway.
  • JP Morgan Fund Could Rattle Markets Friday
    The fund is JHEQX.
    Bloomberg published a longer, more detailed article today: “JP Morgan Options Wale Worries Resurface as Stocks Extend Drop”. (unable to link)
    From Reuters: “How A Massive Options Trade by a JP Morgan Fund Can Move Markets”
    https://www.yahoo.com/video/explainer-massive-options-trade-jp-100000001.html
    Excerpt: ”A nearly $16 billion JP Morgan fund is expected to reset its options positions on Friday, potentially adding to equity volatility at the end of a gloomy quarter for stocks. Analysts have in the past pointed to the JPMorgan Hedged Equity Fund’s quarterly reset roiling markets, and see it as a source of potential volatility during Friday's session.
    “The (fund) holds a basket of S&P 500 stocks along with options on the benchmark index and resets hedges once a quarter. The fund, which had about $15.59 billion in assets as of September 28, aims to let investors benefit from equity market gains while limiting their exposure to declines. … Assets ballooned in recent years, as investors sought protection from the sort of wild swings that rocked markets in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020.”

  • CD Rates Keep Rising

    dtconroe: "Yep, I am also weighing my options of at least devoting part of my portfolio for longer CDs--maybe 2 or 3 year CDs. 2 year CDs have been the longest I have previously invested in, but with 3 year CDs over 5% now, it at least deserves some consideration. With my taxable account, I prefer limiting my CD terms to shorter options of 6 months to a yearfor liquidity purposes, but with my traditional IRA CDs, I am looking closely at longer terms. A 3 year laddering approach looks interesting to me in my IRA account.
    For most of my retirement years, I had a target objective of 4 to 6% TR, using low risk bond oefs. It is a little strange to be able to get that so easily with CDs these days."
    There is a line of thinking that 10-year treasuries are starting to look good at 4.5%. Unlike CDs they will have a nice CG once 4.5% become history.

  • NHYDY. Inspector Clouseau would say.....
    Yes, I recall Matthews funds sent us an IRS form re: the amount of foreign tax paid. Years ago, when I owned Matthews. But if your IRS tax due is 0 anyhow, there's nothing to deduct that foreign tax "against." It's just a sunk cost.
  • CD Rates Keep Rising
    Yes, actually we did something like that back in the 70s. Inflation was roaring, and I bought a couple of callable municipal bonds out of Salt Lake, to build an electric power generating facility, paying around 14%. (Figured that I could trust the Mormons.) Did very, very well on those for a number of years until they were called.
    Only a couple of years ago did I discover that I had made that money by helping to enable climate change. Those generating plants at Four Corners were coal-fired, belching contaminates into the Southwest atmosphere. Talk about dirty money.
    (The Four Corners is a region of the Southwestern United States consisting of the southwestern corner of Colorado, southeastern corner of Utah, northeastern corner of Arizona, and northwestern corner of New Mexico.)
  • Treasury FRNs
    Hi, I have question on tax information of USFR. WisdomTree website has a spreadsheet file with tax information(https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/resource-library/fact-sheets-reports#tab-EFFF2124-78F5-46F4-B816-6D4252E4BC97). The data shows monthly dividend including small capital distribution in early December in recent years. If you hold this fund, will the corresponding 1099 Form indicate how much dividend is from treasury(for state tax exempt purpose) among all dividends? Many other treasury ETFs (TBIL, TFLO) publishes how much percentage of earnings are from the treasury, thus not difficult to figure out yourself if not on 1099 form. Thanks.
  • Watch out for those oil/gas related equities: Rosebank approved.
    U.K. gov't just approved development. The Rosebank field is off the northwest coast of the Shetlands, way the hell up North.
    Equinor stock is way up. Ithaca is soaring. (20% stake. Equinor = 80%.)
    Because I own some, I note that Tenaris (TS) is up +0.91%, pre-Market here in the States. (Maker of oil/gas pipes, particularly for offshore production. HQ in Luxembourg.)
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/27/worlds-fastest-growing-economy-guyana-could-grow-100percent-in-5-years.html
    OOPS. Wrong link. Here it is.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/27/uk-gives-approval-for-controversial-rosebank-oil-and-gas-field-development.html
  • Tax-Loss/Gain Harvesting
    The bond market will close two hours early (2PM EST) on Dec 29th. Just in case you're looking to dump Treasuries as rates continue to rise. (That's a lighthearted statement, not a prediction.)
    Less often practiced, but potentially useful, is tax-gain harvesting. It can be advantageous to generate cap gains and ordinary income in different years. In that way, one can take advantage of lower cap gains rates (e.g. 0% bracket) without getting pushed out by the presence of ordinary income.
    Instead of recognizing some gains and some income (e.g. from Roth conversions) each year, one can recognize more gains (fill the 0% bracket) in year 1, and do more conversions in year 2 to compensate. Just watch for all the gotchas - pushing into the next ordinary income tax bracket, exceeding ACA subsidy limits, IRMAA, SS taxation brackets, etc.
    It's not unusual to find advice about aggregating tax deductions (property taxes, charitable contributions, etc.) into every other year. It's less common to see similar advice about harvesting cap gains this way. (I believe Kitces' discussion about the interplay between cap gains and ordinary income does have such a suggestion.)
    Hypothetical example (MFJ), using same rates/brackets for 2024 as 2023. By keeping all the cap gains in the first year and all the conversions (extra ordinary income) in the second year, nearly all the cap gains get taxed at 0%, vs. 15% in the second year. Even with the "penalty" for lumping ordinary income into year 2 (some is taxed at 22%) one may come out ahead.
    This is very income and bracket specific.
    			2023			2024
    Other ordinary income: $70,000 $70,000
    Roth conversion: $ 0 $60,000
    Less std deduction: ($27,700) ($27,700)
    Taxable ord income: $42,300 $102,300
    Cap gains: $50,000 $ 0
    Ordinary income tax: 10% x $22,000+ 10% x $22,000+
    12% x $20,300 12% x $67,450 +
    22% x (102300-89450)
    =$4,876 =$13,121
    Cap gains tax: 15% x
    ($92,300 - $89,250)
    =$457.50 =$ 0
    --------- ---------
    Total tax: $5,123.50 $13,121
    With evenly split income/conversions
    2023 2024
    Other ordinary income: $70,000 $70,000
    Roth conversion: $30,000 $30,000
    Less std deduction: ($27,700) ($27,700)
    Taxable ord income: $72,300 $72,300
    Cap gains: $25,000 $25,000
    Ordinary income tax: 10% x $22,000+ 10% x $22,000+
    12% x $50,300 12% x $50,300
    =$8,236 =$8,236
    Cap gains tax: 15% x 15% x
    ($97,300 - $89,250) ($97,300 - $89,250)
    =$1,207.50 =$1,207.50
    --------- ---------
    Total tax: $9,443.50 $9,443.50

  • Robo-Advisor Evaluation
    Robo investing does work given time and patience. For example, many state sponsored 529 plans employ low cost broadly diversified index funds. The state adds a smaller layer of fees as the administrator. Overall fees are still very good. Automatic shifting allocation from stocks to bonds (eventually money market fund) is available today. If started early enough, the parents have 18 years to invest for their child’s college education. We are very fortunate to use the 529 plan to put our kids through college.
  • Robo-Advisor Evaluation
    @msf, Vanguard often written things in simple language. Many may interpret Vanguard being a plain old indexer and that is simply untrue (have equally number actively managed funds).
    As you posted the comparison between different PAS plans: Digital Advisor ($3K minimum), Personal Advisor ($50K minimum), Personal Advisor Select ($500K minimum), and Wealth Management ($5M minimum). All plans have active funds options.
    We chose Personal Advisor Select since we want need additional advice on personal financial planning and personal trust service. A dedicated advisor seems to work very effectively for us.
    As I stated earlier, Vanguard's proposal is far from being a cookie-cutter plan filled with index funds. It is built based on our risk tolerance, withdraw need with respect to time and from which tax-deferred accounts. The advisor constructed the proposal to include actively managed short and intermediate term investment grade bond funds (not just a total bond market index fund) and a total international bond index fund (we have little exposure to this asset class), plus others I mentioned above. Our advisor is well aware of the inverted yield curve and our bonds spread between short and intermediate term duration; no long duration bonds. In addition, we requested to shift more of bonds to my accounts and more stocks to my wife since they will be withdraw 5 years later.
    In the end, I believe the clients have the equal responsibility to work with their advisors in order to put together a solid asset allocation plan so to meet their future needs.
    Thank you for your "Dynamic Cash Flow" example, I am putting together a spreadsheet for our Roth conversion plan. Even though we have taken advantage of Roth 401(K) when it was available. Still we have sizable traditional IRAs to convert and the tax saving is substantial in our case.
  • Vanguard Admiral Minimums
    Sometimes you can get them to work with you. Years ago my wife had over $3000 in a growth fund that badly underperformed both the market and it's peers, to the point she was below the $3000 minimum for any stock fund.
    I got the rep to allow us to buy a more reasonable alternative, since it was Vanguard's fault the account was so low.
  • Robo-Advisor Evaluation
    Very useful discussion but I think the key is how they programmed their robos.
    If their models only look at historical data since the beginning of the Bond Bull Market, they may vastly under preform since the era of "free money" is over and bonds have almost had three years of negative returns in a row, a situation without historical precedence.
    Relying on the 60/40 portfolio with bond index funds and SP500 indexes here seems pretty risky to me, especially when you can get over 5% in 2 year treasuries. The stock/bond correlation is quite positive.
    Hopefully Vanguard is thinking out side of their "indexing Box". I always am concerned when you look at their decades long insistence that clients need significant international exposure. At some point that will be called for, but it has not worked for a long time.
  • Funds & Retirement Stories from Barron's
    Nice poignant quip from the afore mentioned Forsyth column:
    “With a nod to our Deadhead central bank chief, what a long, strange trip it’s been—and a bad trip for those who own the 1.25% Treasury bonds due on May 15, 2050, which closed on Thursday at a price of 48.186, more than half off their original price just over three years ago.”
  • Robo-Advisor Evaluation
    [snip]
    @hank,
    Good questions!
    I'm not an expert on robo-advisors.
    I recently worked with Vanguard Personal Advisor Services (PAS)
    to create a financial plan as a trial exercise.
    My thoughts are below.
    - Are these robo’s aware that bonds recently experienced a 30 year bull market? That aberration affected not only bond returns. It also likely distorted other asset performance as well. Are robos capable of distinguishing between what worked over the last 30 years during falling interest rates and what might work over the next 2 or 3 decades?
    Vanguard PAS uses the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM) to forecast returns for stocks,
    bonds, short-term reserves as well as inflation rates.
    The VCCM uses a statistical analysis of historical data for interest rates, inflation,
    and other risk factors for global equities, fixed income, and commodity markets
    to generate forward-looking distributions of expected long-term returns.
    I don't know what models other robo-advisors are using nor which factors they consider.

    - Does the robo take into consideration the difference between very low / negative inflation over the preceding 2 or 3 decades and the likely inflation scenario going forward? Can it comprehend and factor in how that monumental sea change might turn return on different assets on their heads? Assets that outperformed over a period of low inflation may not be the best ones in a radically different economic backdrop.
    Please refer to my answer above.
    - Are these robos aware of the growing friction with China, Russia and how that may affect EM investments? Do they take into account the rise of populism around the world and growing political instability in many Western nations?
    I don't think robo-advisors' models factor in rising populism or frictions with China/Russia.
    - Would robos have correctly foreseen the tech revolution in say 1975 (excuse the oxymoron) and would they have recommended the best investments over the next quarter century? Can they properly assess the impact AI may / may not have on investments?
    Robo-advisors could not have predicted the tech revolution nor can they properly assess the impact of AI.
    - Can a robo correctly identify a bubble in an asset class and warn its clients to steer clear in a timely manner? (By definition, most humans cannot.) Or, might the robo have had you invested in Japan in the mid-90?
    Robo-advisors can not identify bubbles in an asset class beforehand.
    However, their models may underweight "overvalued" assets.

    [snip]
  • Funds & Retirement Stories from Barron's
    LINK 2
    FUNDS. Mid-cap growth JAENX follows the GARP strategy. Its portfolio includes 26% techs, 24% industrials (reshoring themes), healthcare, growth utilities (renewables, grid improvements). (By @lewisbraham at MFO) (Also, a strange placement near the end of the issue)
    EXTRA, FUNDS. With the NAMES-RULE, the SEC has cracked down on misleading fund names. Funds must invest 80% of the assets according to what is in their names, e.g. growth, value, big-data, green, AI, etc. When terms are vague, funds must define them along with applicable criteria in their prospectuses and those will become part of funds’ official investment policy. Fund firms with $1+ billion AUM will have 12 months to comply, smaller firms 18 months. Future flexibility will only be during fund launches when it takes some time to build portfolios, but beyond that, any deviations must be fixed within 90 days.
    INCOME. As bond-proxies, UTILITIES (XLU, the worst among 11 S&P sectors) have suffered as rates have risen. But rates are peaking, and utilities should have better prospects ahead, especially growth electric utilities, those involved in renewables and improving grid infrastructure. Mentioned are AEP, CNP, NI. (This previously regular column is now ON/OFF)
    ECONOMY. A new plan by the LA Senator CASSIDY and the ME Senator KING to fix SOCIAL SECURITY may work. It will leave the SSA Trust Fund (really, an IOU) alone, but would BORROW $1.5 trillion over 5 years to invest in STOCK index funds. The total US stock market-cap is $43.4 trillion, so this inflow shouldn’t cause much disruption (but don’t underestimate the impact of the inflow of $300 billion/yr. That would be almost double of the US IPOs in a best/hot year like 2021) (Also not mentioned is the increase in the US debt, but what is another $1.5 trillion added to $33 trillion?). This stock investment may cover 75% of the SSA shortfall with the rest coming from COST-CUTTING via increasing the FRA (well, this is the US, not France), raising salary caps, adding means test for higher income earners (so, they pay max into the SSA but may be limited in their SSA benefits). (No mention of how/if this $1.5 trillion would be repaid, but keep in mind that Social Security is a mandatory obligation of the government) (By guest author Allan Sloan)
    Dave GOODSELL, Natixis Center for Investor Insights. Most Americans aren’t prepared for RETIREMENT and may be overly optimistic. For many, 2022 was a year when reality hit (with bad stock and bond markets). Financial advisors have been suggesting that fixed-income now has generational opportunities, yet the pain isn’t over for many sectors of fixed-income. Allocation 60-40 makes good sense now. SOCIAL SECURITY may cover only 35-40% of retirement needs, and many Americans would have difficult time covering the rest from their portfolios. LONGEVITY is an underestimated risk, higher than what investors perceive in surveys (#1-volatility, #2-risk of loss).
    RETIREMENT. A government SHUTDOWN (federal FY24 starts October 1) won’t disrupt the monthly SSA payments (as that is mandatory spending), but other SSA services would be affected. The announcement of COLA (est +3.2%) would be delayed (without the BLS CPI data). We went through the debt-ceiling fiasco earlier this year, and now this.