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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Jamie Cuellar, CFA, passed away (Buffalo Funds)
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1135300/000089418923003709/buffalosticker51523.htm
    Buffalo Funds
    Supplement dated May 15, 2023
    to the
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
    dated July 29, 2022, as previously supplemented
    The Buffalo Funds regret to inform shareholders that Jamie Cuellar, CFA, a co-portfolio manager of the Small Cap Fund since 2015 and of the Discovery Fund since April 2020, unexpectedly and tragically passed away on May 8, 2023. Jamie spent more than 30 years as part of the investment management industry, including the last 8 with Kornitzer Capital Management, Inc. (“KCM”). The Funds and KCM are grateful for all of Jamie’s contributions. He will be greatly missed.
    Please note all references to Mr. Cuellar in the Funds’ Prospectus and SAI are deleted in their entirety.
    The Small Cap Fund continues to be managed by Robert Male, CFA, and the Discovery Fund continues to be managed by Dave Carlsen, CFA.
    Please retain this supplement with your Prospectus and SAI
    Picture:
    https://buffalofunds.com/team/jamie-cuellar/
  • The Case For International Diversification
    Dollar diversification is one of the reasons for foreign exposure. Dollar has been strong for last several years, but may have peaked in September 2022. Since then, the pattern is of a decline (look at declining 50d-MA and 200-dMA) with wiggles up/down.
    As has been noted, strong dollar is a headwind for foreign funds held by the US investors, while weak dollar provides tailwind. The currency-hedged foreign funds become popular in strong dollar eras.
    But currency movements/trends are hard to predict.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p35088383212
  • The Case For International Diversification
    FMIJX has had two unusually bad patches (2020) and (2022) surrounded by some very strong years verses its peers.
    fmijx/performance
    Not International, but "Global Investing without the indigestion" might be another approach for diversifying away from the US:
    investing-without-an-ulcer
  • The Case For International Diversification
    There’s a whole other issue of whether the fund is dollar hedged, partially so, or not at all. You can find international funds in each camp depending on whether or not you want to hedge against potential dollar weakness. If you believe the dollar will remain strong, use dollar-hedged funds.
    Buffet sold a lot of U.S. stocks first quarter, but increased his holdings in Japan. I suspect part of his thinking involves relative currency valuations (dollar vs yen).
    Another question is how much of a premium you’re willing to pay for a more diversified portfolio. ISTM that if all of your investments are rising together there’s a pretty good chance that at some future date they will all decline together.
    It’s interesting that some really accomplished heads of corporations look out 5-10 years when making spending decisions about acquisitions, expensive new infrastructure, new streams of income. But a lot of us (self included) react to gains / losses much nearer term. I mention that only because international investing involves calculated longer term risk taking. Past may not be precursor to future.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    @davidrmoran
    Yes I played the WaPo game once through quickly. I shaved off 6 billion without cutting defense, mainly by increasing taxes on wealthy. Unfortunately the game would not let you really get into the weeds where all the savings is.
    The money savings in healthcare alone is astronomical. that JAMA editorial is just the tip of the iceberg.
    Private Equity in health care is bleeding the country dry. Prospect Medical sold their hospitals to MPW to repay a Billion dollar loan they used to pay their owner a $600 million dividend, as I have posted before.
    Add to that the money we spend on drugs that continue to be patent projected in the US years after coming to market, but nowhere else. Humira is one of the most expensive examples.
    Corporate Welfare is far far more expensive than helping poor people.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    But please leave out the widely understood part about past performance being no guarantee of future results. Got that part.
    Ok, but that's exactly what you based your whole argument on. Past 3-5 year performance.
    I do agree with everyone else though that with CD's at 5%, it's hard to take on more risk to get 6, 7 or 8% as rates plateau or start to come down. But it may be close to that time IMHO. I do believe the next 3-5 years will not look like the past 3-5 years. Extrapolate YTD returns on some of these funds now and it shows returns growing greater than 5% for the year.
    The only bond fund I've held on to over the past couple years is in my withdrawal bucket, RPHYX. I recently added RGHYX and SAMBX to that bucket in small dosage. A couple TIP funds too, but that bucket still consist of more than 50% in 3-12 month treasuries, CDs and MM. I'll add, because it's not talked about much, also a nice consistent player in this bucket has been SPC, Crossing Bridge Pre-Merger SPAC ETF.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?

    ....
    It is hard to beat 4 to 4.5%
    =====================================
    With taxable and municipal bond funds, indeed it is.
    -------------------
    Here's a link to the 1,921 taxable bond funds that Fido currently offers.
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/fund-screener/results/table/overview/averageAnnualReturnsYear5/desc/1?assetClass=TBND&category=BL,CI,CL,CS,EB,FX,GI,GL,GS,HY,IB,IP,MU,NT,PI,RR,TW,UB,WH,XF,XP&order=assetClass,category
    For kicks, sort them by descending 5-yr total returns.
    Note that only 11/1,921, or 0.57% exceeded TRs of 4.50% for the past 5 years.
    -------------------
    Here's a link to the 903 municipal bond funds that Fido currently offers.
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/fund-screener/results/table/overview/averageAnnualReturnsYear5/desc/1?assetClass=MBND&category=HM,MC,MF,MI,MJ,ML,MM,MN,MO,MP,MS,MT,MY,SI,SL,SM,SS&order=assetClass,category
    For kicks, sort them by descending 5-yr total returns.
    Note that only 0/903, or 0.00% exceeded TRs of 4.50% for the past 5 years.
    -------------------
    Read it again s-l-o-w-l-y and try to understand it.
    Then s-l-o-w-l-y try to explain why an investor, going forward, should invest in either taxable or municipal bond funds in their portfolio's fixed income sleeve instead of say, 5-yr, 4.50%, non-callable CDs.
    But please leave out the widely understood part about past performance being no guarantee of future results. Got that part.
  • Dip Buyers Scorched by Cratering Bank Stocks Head for the Exits - Bloomberg
    Well! I've learned some lessons through the years. I cannot sell my smallish, mid-sized bank stock at THIS point. (Stick out foot, then pull trigger.) ...I did unload a true beast: PRISX. TRP Financials, though. I redeployed the money, not taking it out. When I get some spare cash again at the head of the month of June, I'll be buying more of BHB. They've even managed to RAISE the dividend a tiny bit. P/E stands at 7.23. And P/B is 0.84. Price-to-cash-flow = 5.96. Trailing div is 5.81%. (That last one is surely connected to the fall in the share price.) The geniuses at Morningstar say I'm holding a stock that sits at 33% less than its true value. Market cap = 343.7588 Mil. Call me stubborn. But this one I can see is a "keeper." This crisis will pass, like the others. And I sense that it's a GOOD thing that this stock is not in the news.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Yes I maintain a little in a global bond fund and also hold a high yield mini fund. They’ve long been part of a well diversified low risk portfolio. Bonds & bond funds got whacked in 2022. Worst year for bonds I can remember in more than 25 years of managing my own investments. That didn’t deter me from keeping the same allocation. Since my total allocation to all fixed income (cash and bonds) is only 20% you might assume there’s not a whole lot in bond funds. Where possible, I favor multi-asset allocation and alternative investment funds to either pure fixed income or stock funds.
    *Note: I also hold a convertible bond fund. That’s considered an “alternative” type investment and so is not included in the above fixed income amount.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    I increased my position in RHPIX but sold everything else last year when they all were down 4 to 5%, thus avoiding worse losses. I did jump into OSTIX again a month or so again. I have had a position in it off and on over the years
    I figure they have a decent chance of avoiding credit blow ups and high yield may be less interest rate sensitive.
    I also bought some long term munis and muni bond funds
    It is hard to beat 4 to 4.5%
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    OP Q: "Anybody investing in bond funds?"
    A: Um, not us.
    Why not? Well, we ask ourselves, what do we expect as likely/probable average annual TRs from dedicated bond funds over the next say, five years? We answer, maybe 4%-5% if we're very lucky.
    With 5-yr, non-callable, 4.5% CDs widely available now, and over 5% widely available back at the peak, why should be bother with dedicated bond funds for the next 3-5 years?
    We are sufficiently over the interest rate hurdle that allows us to "Just Say No" to dedicated bond funds for the next several years.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    Recently I found out that the Orange Julius years produced yuuuge juicy budget surpluses. In fact the surpluses even paid for the entirety of the big and beautiful 2000 mile long and 200 foot tall wall at the border which even the Chinese were awestruck by but didn't have the best words to describe (Cheeto of course as a stable genius has the best words)
    The fake news media will never tell you all this.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    As I understand it, the Republican bill, in general, would raise the debt limit to avoid the default and reduce spending to stop going above the new debt limit. Biden does not want any debt limit so that he can spend all he desires. There has to be a limit on the debt and a start to decrease it. I hope the Republicans hold the line even if it results in default. The liberals have to be stopped at some point. The default would be on Biden's head if he refuses.
    Come on Hondo, this is a blame game that goes on with both parties. Neither party wants debt limit controls, when they are in power. It is pure power politics and when either party is in power, they impact the budgeting process, that typically raises the deficit. The biggest debt deficit increase in recent years, came from Trump and the Republicans cutting crucial revenue for our budget, by cutting taxes for the wealthy and corporations, and the Republicans now seem intent on cutting funding for the IRS because of those "pesky" audits to expose tax evasion. I don't see a "high ground" in this process that either party has a right to claim!
  • In case of DEFAULT
    Just don't see much else to say on this topic. I am not convinced that either political party really wants a debt deficit control bill. The Democrats are devoted to a number of unresolved social issues that are not addressed in the budget. The Republicans are devoted to reducing tax/revenue issues, that burden the wealthy and corporations. We have just completed the first couple of years of the Biden presidency, and there have been some Covid related spending to more "normalize" our future, and then there was Infrastructure spending package that even the Republicans were happy to present to their home constituents, who needed and wanted water/road/bridge/internet etc. help. So the big gesture now is the Republicans trying to undue some "Inflationary" related legislation, that was recently passed. Its all just partisan bulls...t that is not going to change for now. Default consequences will now be broadcast in scary detailed ways, and then when we see many things that will directly impact almost everyone, a magical solution will likely be found, so no one will be blamed for disaster.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    @staycalm. “Itching for a showdown.” “Just because.” You nailed the bigger issue here. When the history of this cluster fuck is written 40 years from now it might indeed be bigger than the obvious. It might be that the no nothing caucus had a bigger goal in mind. Or nothing in mind except messing up with the existing order.
  • Seeing red across the board this morning.
    @Mark
    Thank you for kind words. Hopefully the advice on this board will allow you sufficient funds so you can pay his tuition in 18 years!
  • In case of DEFAULT
    Don't confuse the GOP with facts!
    Sure, erase the new IRS funding, so my family will wait decades ( instead of two plus years and counting) for the refund of thousands of dollars the IRS owes my deceased Mother's estate.
    Only since "the Bolshie" in the WH passed the additional IRS funding have they even been able to answer the phone.
  • Seeing red across the board this morning.
    @Mark, Congratulation! It is a beautiful thing to welcome a new generation.
    Now is the time to help your son and daughter to get the 529 plan started. Time is on your side for the college fund to compound for next 18 years before withdrawing. You can apply for his/her social security number now and you are all set… College tuition is much higher now than those periods when we went to college. One of our kid graduated without debt while another one is entering graduate school with sufficient 529 fund to cover her schooling.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    The authors’ (Feldstein and Wrobel) research corroborated the theory that more progressive state tax structures cannot achieve redistribution of income in the long run. In states where high income individuals are taxed more heavily, migration increases high earners’ pretax real incomes and lowers pretax incomes of lower income individuals.
    Instead of achieving a long-run redistribution of income, a more progressive tax system distorts economic choices and reduces total real incomes. A change in the progressivity of a state tax structure promotes migration and changes the allocation of resources within the state. As pretax wages of highly skilled individuals rise and wages of low skilled individuals fall, firms are incentivized to reduce the number of higher paying jobs and increase the number of lower paying jobs.
    But you don't have to read the data, research and propoganda online etc....just open your own eyes and observe....I submit to you the State of Illinois...you can hear the whooshing sound of the wealth leaving the state...those with means (and gov't pensions) are leaving in a hurry....Cook County (CHI) has over 200,000 residents leave in the past 3 years...
    I further submit to you that the Bolshevik's in the White House etc are following Lenin's playbook almost to a T....crushing the middle class (the way to crush the bourgeoisie (middle class) is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation)...destroy the family, destroy the country...(hmm, sound familiar as to things said allouded to by BLM commentary and viewpoint about the family unit)...divide people on nonsense, corrupt the young, I submit to you the Facebook, Instrgram...deny them gun ownership.
    Ahh...while I 100% agree we should lock all punks, dingbats, crazies, etc who are not licensed to carry the firearms in jail...of course you Bolsheviks/Demorats want our weapons...that is the only way you can achieve your insane goals and control the country.
    Best Regards to ALL,
    Baseball Fan
  • Calls on CDs
    Disclaimer_1: Been investing in CD ladders for about 15 years. I only ever by non-callable and usually go out 3-5 years. And I many times buy CDs on the Secondary Market, but not-so-much in the past several months as the pendulum decisively swung to New Issues.
    ----------------------------------
    To the OP, pretty sure you should expect the majority, if not all of your longer-term, callable CDs to be called in the coming months/years. Just as we were reasonably certain that interest rates would rise this year, I at least am reasonably certain that interest rates will start decreasing in the near future. And, the difference between callable and non-callable is generally not greater than 0.5%.
    ----------------------------------
    On the issue of buying only shorter term CDs of say 2 years...Well, that is, how shall I say, short-sighted, and those investors who want to replace their maturing CDs in 2 years are likely going to be feeling a wee bit of buyer's regret.
    Example using current listing of Fido CDs:
    You are looking at CDs today. You only want non-callable CDs and you only want to go out a max of 2 years. So you buy the best 2-yr, non-callable CD that Fido has to offer at 4.95%.
    In two years it matures and you are looking for another 2-yr, non-callable CD to replace it. In 2 years, you will need to find a 2-yr, 4.25%, non-callable CD to equal the same rate that you could have had in hand IF you had bought today's best 4-yr, non-callable CD at 4.60%.
    Good luck with that. I'm reasonably certain that 2-yr, 4.25%, non-callable CDs will NOT be available in May 2025.
    Always best to put together an EXCEL spreadsheet and drop in the rates that are available NOW for respective periods, and determine what rate you will need upon maturing of a shorter-term CD (2 yrs in this example) to meet or exceed the rate of the currently available longer-term CD (4 yrs in this example).
    ----------------------------------
    Disclaimer_2: Future interest rates are usually WAGs.
    BUT, in the last say 6-12 months, it was something short of that as we were reasonably certain they were going UP, and we could even reasonably project where they would peak.
    Likewise, at this point, I at least am reasonably certain that rates will start going DOWN in the near future, but not anywhere near as capable of projecting how low they might go.
    So, my money, in this example, is on buying the 4-yr, 4.60% non-callable CD today as I have little-to-no expectation that a 2-yr, 4.25% non-callable CD will be available in May 2025.
    EDIT: The other argument against buying shorter term CDs, e.g., a current 1-yr, 5.15%, non-callable, is that the best money market funds are paying about the same, with VMRXX currently at 5.03% and FZDXX currently at 4.88%.
    ------------------------------------
    And speaking of potential buyer's regret, recall that 4-yr, 5+%, non-callable CDs were widely available for a brief period not so long ago. Here's hoping that many here participated when we hit peak rates AND thought long-term!
    YMMV.