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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • US Global Funds - Investor Alert - 8/19/22
    Often when I see the phrase “climate agenda” in a story, I know the author has a fossil fuel or nuclear agenda as is the case here. No one has ever adequately figured out what to do with the highly radioactive form of nuclear waste from plants, which has a half life of thousands of years: https://eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/nuclear-power-and-the-environment.php
    While it probably makes sense for nuclear to be part of the energy equation, the notion that the Europeans are somehow foolish for pursuing their “climate agenda” when the earth is on fire and America only just now passed a modest bill to address climate change is far sillier to me.
  • Schwab Issued Corrected 1099 in August!
    And so, Auntie Janet Yellen is throwing money at the IRS. Will it do any good?
    It's the Congress giving the IRS a shot of the $ they've lost from GOP obstruction, and yes, it will improve things, and yes, it will be good to see more audits bring in more revenue from the super wealthy and corporations who pay so little in fed taxes now. What I experienced is a direct result of several years of Republican sabotage.
  • How to Beat the Stock Market Without Even Lying
    WSJ article by Jason Zweig.
    "You know all that stuff you’ve been hearing for so long about how fund managers can’t beat the market?
    It isn’t true. Fund managers can easily beat the market. All they have to do is change which market they’re trying to beat.
    Hundreds of them have been doing just that for years. Such maneuvers are perfectly legal—and investors need to fend for themselves, because regulators have so far been paying little attention.
    A new study by finance professors Kevin Mullally of the University of Central Florida and Andrea Rossi of the University of Arizona finds that between 2006 and 2018, 37% of all U.S. stock mutual funds pulled this kind of switcheroo."
    ARTICLE
  • Schwab Issued Corrected 1099 in August!
    The dysfunctions at the IRS are a direct result of the Republicans for years deliberately starving it of the funding necessary to properly run the place. Yet another example, as if we needed one, of their continuous assault on the federal government.
    And no, I'm no fan of the IRS either, but if we're going to run a country we need to be able to enforce the rules and collect the taxes legitimately due.
  • BulletShares versus ibonds bond ladder
    Have you used these to any success? There is a yield to maturity calculator on their website and I wonder how accurate it is to what you return would be if you purchased on that date.
    I have some fixed expenses coming up in 5-6 years and I was thinking of using these defined maturity ETFs to pay for those.
  • Small-caps at all?
    @BenWP yes NEAIX is a very interesting one. Sold off a fair amount earlier this year but Great Owl and top decile performer over last 3 and 5 years. It's coming back. I'm also intrigued by BRSVX in small cap value. Held up very well this year.
  • CWS Market Review – August 16, 2022
    During the day on Tuesday, the S&P 500 poked its head above 4,325. That’s a place the index has not been since early May. The S&P 500 has now gained back more than half of what it lost during this year’s unpleasantness.
    The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell 6 points to 49. That was its eighth-straight monthly decline.
    The reason why this is so important is that 50 is the tipping point. Any number above 50 is considered positive, while any number below it is considered negative. Now we’re negative. Except for a brief period around Covid, this index hasn’t been negative in eight years.

    The broader economy is probably not in a recession at the moment, but its most important sector likely is.
    CWS
    crossingwallstreet market-review-august-16-2022
    Housing IS the Business Cycle
    https://nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w13428/w13428.pdf
  • Strategies for 10-Year IRA Drawdown
    Mrs. Ruffles inherited an IRA that must be drawn down completely in 10 years. It’s up in the air as to whether it will need to be drawn down proportionally over the 10 years (as the IRS recently proposed) or can be taken out at any time and in any amount.
    I’m trying to come up with the best investment/withdrawal strategy to maximize the IRA’s value and minimize the risk of getting caught in a downturn.
    My thoughts so far:
    1. Invest in a 2032 Target Date fund with an automatic glide path to the end date.
    2. A moderate allocation approach (either as a single fund or combination of funds).
    3. Ignore the 10 year deadline, apply our typical investment strategy, and take withdrawals as in-kind rather than as cash to allow for recovery from drawdowns.
    Any other ideas/refinements that I haven’t considered?
  • Investor Poll 2 questions
    1. Has the 10 year treasury peaked at 3.48% over the next 2 years? yes or no and why?
    2. Are we resting in a commodity super cycle over the next 5 years?
  • Privacy and Cookies Policy
    onetrust is a popular cookie consent management tool. While OT provides templates and language ootb, customers can customize how the cookie choices are presented to end users.
    Unfortunately there isn't any standardized way in which publishers present consent choices to consumers. Some publishers are genuine in giving true choice to the consumer, many are just checking a box and some unfortunately intentionally play word smith games intended to confuse rather than illuminate.
    The goal of many publishers is pretty obvious -- get the consumer to give up and click on the Accept All button. The entire cookie choice system is not inherently stable because there are variations in the controls presented, words used and differences in the UX as you saw. Very difficult if not near impossible to learn a pattern on one site and universally apply it everywhere. And since browser history and settings have to be periodically cleaned due to malfunctioning sites, cookie choice isn't a set it and forget it type op.
    Which is why most users simply click Accept All and move on. Which pretty much defeats the entire edifice of giving choice to the consumer.
    Regulators don't live in the real world. In one of my prior jobs (managing a custom web app used by a high volume call center) there was such a staggeringly high volume of consumers calling in for extremely basic browser issues (easily a third or more of the calls) that one couldn't really help wonder how effective the rocket science of cookie choice really was. And these calls had absolutely nothing to do with the functionality of the web app itself. These were literally the level of "Is your computer powered on" type questions.
    So sometimes when you call tech support of a service provider, the agent will walk you through some really silly basic stuff -- you often wonder if the company created those support scripts 30 years back and forgot to update them for modern times You start wondering why the scripts are catering to the lowest common denominator which might be less than 1%. I've seen the other side and now know that the LCD is a lot larger than 1%.
  • Privacy and Cookies Policy
    On a related note, GDPR and cookie choices is all good stuff but the tech cos, publishers and advertisers are light years ahead of the regulations.
    As long as there are eyeballs on the web consuming any kind of web content, advertisers and tech cos will find ways to deliver personalized ads. The business model of the internet as currently structured does not work without personal ads.
    I don't like the Nike shoe following me everywhere so this isn't a defense of the system, just stating the facts here.
  • Taking Risk out of the Market...commentary
    Nice @LewisBraham. I’m very worried about many workers dependent on 401-K savings for what could be 20, 30 or even 40 years of retirement. I’m fortunate to have a DB pension. But those are now few and far between. And, when it comes to managing / investing a 401-K, those who post on this forum possess better than average investment acumen. But in general few wage earners would appear equipped to manage a small fortune successfully and time the withdrawals so as to last a lifetime.
    Preventing workers from “borrowing” against their 401-K during their working years might be a start. Some retire with little if any left invested for growth. Perhaps limiting withdrawals to a set percentage or an amount that rises incrementally during retirement would help. As far as target-date funds go … the jury is still out on whether they’re the best approach as the default option. I know a few persons in their mid-60s who have already exhausted 100% of the money they contributed during 25-30 year careers. Suddenly they see their rent, fuel and food costs rising sharply. It’s really sad to witness. Maybe our politicians could stop throwing brickbats at one another long enough to address problems like this one.
  • Taking Risk out of the Market...commentary
    I thought this was a pretty good read from Allison Schrager. Some interesting points regarding Fed policy and action that has impacted the economy and the market.
    Getting rid of risk is the biggest risk. It seems like every time something bad happens in the economy we decide we need policies to keep it from ever happening again. And sometimes that is wise, say if a bad recession or stock market crash reveals some crazy distortion or externality that needs to be eliminated. But often, we tend to try to eliminate any bad thing.
    On the Housing Market:
    Now, the market is weird—sales down, prices up, and frozen in some places. And I think it will be screwy for a while because no one who got a cheap mortgage can afford to move. And the MBS market will be weird because no one will refinance either, so the duration of these securities is totally unpredictable.
    and,
    the Fed buying the entire MBS market in the middle of a housing boom?! That’s crazy, and it did not eliminate risk—it only created more.
    On "nudging" the workforce into Target Date Funds:
    nudging did have a big impact on investing. Before nudging, people kept their portfolio allocations pretty constant as they aged or kept their money in cash. But automatically enrolling people in target date funds (TDFs) means more people now own stock and move into bonds as they age.
    Great. But the problem with TDFs is they don’t help people spend in retirement, and that is the whole point. And while I agree people should move into bonds as they age—because of lifecycle finance, not because a shorter time in markets is riskier—TDFs move people into the wrong kind of bonds. They are mostly in short-duration bonds (less than five years), while the duration of your future spending at retirement is more like 12 years. This leaves people exposed to interest rate, market, and inflation risks.
    Nudging is not enough; you need good defaults too. And in a changing-rate, high-inflation environment, we’ll start to see the costs of TDFs’ shortcomings.
    On Nepotism:
    I meet a lot of people who do some unusual jobs: Sex workers, bounty hunters, mob hitmen, horse inseminators, pensions actuaries—you name it. And the first thing I always ask them is how they got into this line of work. And nine times out of 10, I hear, “My father.”
    Article Link:
    allisonschrager-helicopter-fed
  • 10 Investing Secrets I Wish I Knew When I Started
    One of the better articles I've read in a long time.
    Summary
    ° Investing is hard.
    ° After 20 years, I've made countless mistakes.
    ° My journey improved through a wide range of epiphanies over time.
    ° I've discovered along the way what I call investing "secrets."
    ° I hope sharing them can improve your journey.
    ARTICLE at SeekingAlpha
  • Small-caps at all?
    Thanks to everyone for your posts and for your suggestions above. Greatly appreciate it. I spent the weekend analyzing a number of funds and Virtus KAR Small Cap core seems to have the best risk reward stats in the small cap space. It's a Great Owl and also honor roll fund. To me the things that appeal are that it had a MaxDD of 18.3% back in March of 2020 and this year through end of June of that MaxDD was 15.7%. That compares quite favorably to other funds in the space and gives it a low risk rating on Morningstar. Also Beta is only .82. Combine that with top % decile performance in the past 1, 3, 5, 10, and 15 years. I also like the fact that the fund manager has conviction behind his picks with a concentrated fund. At any rate, I plan to purchase the fund. Thanks again for contributing. If anyone else has been following this particular fund, I'd love to hear your thoughts.
  • Single Bond/Treasury ETFs
    Fido has had Treasury auto-rolls for a long time. Schwab started them a couple of years ago. VG may have to catch up.
  • ETF. Invesco solar. Ticker = TAN. Cute.
    Renewable energy is the cover story in the current Barron's. LINK1 LINK2
    COVER STORY, “Clean Energy’s Future Has Arrived/6 Stocks to Play the Rush for Renewable ENERGY”. AES, BE, FCX, LG Energy (S Korea), PLUG, RUN, etc; ETF TAN
    TRANSITION from wood to coal took200 years, from coal to oil 100 years, but that from fossil fuels to RENEWABLES (solar, wind, batteries, hydrogen) to be in only a few years? Global renewable power was 29% in 2020, and by 2030, may be 60% in Europe, 38% in the US, 38% in China. Both the US and Europe, each, are adding 30 GW of renewable power capacity now and that may be 80 GW/yr by 2030. There are transition TAX CREDITS/INCENTIVES everywhere. Russia-Ukraine war has set back some current efforts (coal has come back and natural-gas is scarce) but has accelerated the push for future transitions. Europe has committed $200 billion, the US Inflation Reduction Act will have $370 billion, and private investments will kick in $1.2 trillion. This may be the end of boom-and-bust energy cycles. Many countries have NET-ZERO carbon emission goals by 2050+. However, be very selective on companies in the renewable energy area. Besides the companies mentioned earlier, other beneficiaries may include VWDRY, NLLSF, XOM, CVX (old energy companies won’t be sitting still).
  • Small-caps at all?
    Bringing this discussion back up for everyone. I would really value hearing what everyone's favorite small cap funds are. WAMCX was my primary holding in small cap for several years but it got crushed in the market selloff over the last year. I've been reading up on NEAGX which @BenWP kindly suggested. All suggestions are welcome. I've been pretty much out of small cap for about a year now and looking to add back in. Thanks gang!
    I have been very happy with RWJ. I use CSB for dividends. PSCC has been interesting.
    I have some of the more generic index funds that I plan to ditch when the time is right.
  • Small-caps at all?
    Bringing this discussion back up for everyone. I would really value hearing what everyone's favorite small cap funds are. WAMCX was my primary holding in small cap for several years but it got crushed in the market selloff over the last year. I've been reading up on NEAGX which @BenWP kindly suggested. All suggestions are welcome. I've been pretty much out of small cap for about a year now and looking to add back in. Thanks gang!
    I own VTMSX in my taxable account.
    The fund's benchmark is the S&P 600 and its holdings are very similar to the index.
    VTMSX managers strive to improve tax efficiency for the fund.
  • Small-caps at all?
    Bringing this discussion back up for everyone. I would really value hearing what everyone's favorite small cap funds are. WAMCX was my primary holding in small cap for several years but it got crushed in the market selloff over the last year. I've been reading up on NEAGX which @BenWP kindly suggested. All suggestions are welcome. I've been pretty much out of small cap for about a year now and looking to add back in. Thanks gang!