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It's the Congress giving the IRS a shot of the $ they've lost from GOP obstruction, and yes, it will improve things, and yes, it will be good to see more audits bring in more revenue from the super wealthy and corporations who pay so little in fed taxes now. What I experienced is a direct result of several years of Republican sabotage.And so, Auntie Janet Yellen is throwing money at the IRS. Will it do any good?
CWSDuring the day on Tuesday, the S&P 500 poked its head above 4,325. That’s a place the index has not been since early May. The S&P 500 has now gained back more than half of what it lost during this year’s unpleasantness.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell 6 points to 49. That was its eighth-straight monthly decline.
The reason why this is so important is that 50 is the tipping point. Any number above 50 is considered positive, while any number below it is considered negative. Now we’re negative. Except for a brief period around Covid, this index hasn’t been negative in eight years.
The broader economy is probably not in a recession at the moment, but its most important sector likely is.
On the Housing Market:Getting rid of risk is the biggest risk. It seems like every time something bad happens in the economy we decide we need policies to keep it from ever happening again. And sometimes that is wise, say if a bad recession or stock market crash reveals some crazy distortion or externality that needs to be eliminated. But often, we tend to try to eliminate any bad thing.
On "nudging" the workforce into Target Date Funds:Now, the market is weird—sales down, prices up, and frozen in some places. And I think it will be screwy for a while because no one who got a cheap mortgage can afford to move. And the MBS market will be weird because no one will refinance either, so the duration of these securities is totally unpredictable.
and,
the Fed buying the entire MBS market in the middle of a housing boom?! That’s crazy, and it did not eliminate risk—it only created more.
On Nepotism:nudging did have a big impact on investing. Before nudging, people kept their portfolio allocations pretty constant as they aged or kept their money in cash. But automatically enrolling people in target date funds (TDFs) means more people now own stock and move into bonds as they age.
Great. But the problem with TDFs is they don’t help people spend in retirement, and that is the whole point. And while I agree people should move into bonds as they age—because of lifecycle finance, not because a shorter time in markets is riskier—TDFs move people into the wrong kind of bonds. They are mostly in short-duration bonds (less than five years), while the duration of your future spending at retirement is more like 12 years. This leaves people exposed to interest rate, market, and inflation risks.
Nudging is not enough; you need good defaults too. And in a changing-rate, high-inflation environment, we’ll start to see the costs of TDFs’ shortcomings.
Article Link:I meet a lot of people who do some unusual jobs: Sex workers, bounty hunters, mob hitmen, horse inseminators, pensions actuaries—you name it. And the first thing I always ask them is how they got into this line of work. And nine times out of 10, I hear, “My father.”
I have been very happy with RWJ. I use CSB for dividends. PSCC has been interesting.Bringing this discussion back up for everyone. I would really value hearing what everyone's favorite small cap funds are. WAMCX was my primary holding in small cap for several years but it got crushed in the market selloff over the last year. I've been reading up on NEAGX which @BenWP kindly suggested. All suggestions are welcome. I've been pretty much out of small cap for about a year now and looking to add back in. Thanks gang!
I own VTMSX in my taxable account.Bringing this discussion back up for everyone. I would really value hearing what everyone's favorite small cap funds are. WAMCX was my primary holding in small cap for several years but it got crushed in the market selloff over the last year. I've been reading up on NEAGX which @BenWP kindly suggested. All suggestions are welcome. I've been pretty much out of small cap for about a year now and looking to add back in. Thanks gang!
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