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Doom and gloom - when will it end



  • So...anyone else notice that Fan Favorite, Hussy, HSGFX has now ahead of Fan Favorite Woody ARKK, over the past 3 years...?

    Anyone else notice that Hussy is ahead of Fan Favorite Groovy, PRWCX for the past 2.5 years?

    I know, I know, hasn't been great over the past 10+ years...but let's talk in 6 months...wonder if Hussy will pull ahead looking back 5,10+ years?

    Don't count it out....who knows, right?

    Baseball Fan
  • Hussy is now a small cap value guy, while shorting non US stocks apparently.
    I haven't read his latest commentary
    Does he explain himself?
  • HSGFX, negative returns in 8 of the past 10 years since 2012, including a run of 6 consecutive negative years....give me some of that.
  • broken clock....
  • Wow no where turn /run
  • Once again, this morning shows that positive moves/bounces are not to be trusted in the current market climate....and either you stay put or use those bounces to lighten up on things and/or lock in gains.
  • See Comments I posted under "Rally soon" from Bespoke. Even in 2008 SP500 didn't go over 8 loosing weeks in a row.
    But I don't think anything has been "fixed" and accepting the various measures of how high valuations were ( ie Hussy) this can clearly go on longer. Any bounce is likely to a a "dead cat" just to lure suckers back in.

    I would not commit any funds that I needed to use in the next five years. I am sure some people are "trading" the swings but not me
  • What I assume is fueling the rallies is the fact that earnings for many firms are still good. In fact Chubb, Northrup Grumman and Leggett and Platt just raised their dividends.
  • Crazy ~1100s points reversal
  • Options expiry days are wild with huge volume. Usually, the trend of the week is reinforced, so there may be some significance for the late rebound today.
  • @johnN, I can't find the 1100's point reversal you're talking about. Could you tell me what you were referring to or was your post a misprint?
  • edited May 2022
    Sorry Sir. Prob 660 points reversals-did not look carefully
    Dji ~31400s up 5am premarket
    Down to 30600 after lunch
    Finishes near 31260 closes...think up a little after hour too

    Maybe slowly add more spy qqq next wk

    Friends speculated VIX did not reach previous interim high/resistance (past two wks) today, sp500 did not finish lower than 3850 resistance, which may present bottom processes/formation... they say may probably sideways or massive uptrends next few wks...

    I am dipping small amounts very carefully ( mostly long positions) probably buy more voo qqqm next wk

    If course they could be 50% right
  • Good Morning Class,

    Just wondering...and to be clear I have no position in HSGFX Hussy, and returns over the past 10+ years have been turrible as Chuck Broccoli, I mean Barkley would say....last 3 years have been ok.

    Pondering: I believe we are about to see who are the "Big Boys" running these funds...kinda easy to go with the flow when the Central Banks have pumped in over $30 Trillion or whatever it is over the past 12-14 years....investing geniouses all...let's see who the fund champs are looking backwards from 3 years out...

    Kinda like having Daddy bank roll you...easier to get thru life when you have the wind at your back.

    Let's see what happens now, let's see how the "experts" etc do now...crazy...I was listening to Josh Brown's Compound Show Podcast yesterday and his guest said that everything is sped up...kind of alluding to we have this big downdraft, flush, then we start going up again. I'm sure that guy is a lot smarter than me but it struck me as an odd comment.

    This fiasco in Ukraine has a long way to go to play out....knock on effects will be long and impactful...kooky decisions made in Washington DC now will have long term negative much overstocking of made in Chi com junk....inflation is not going away any time soon, crypto fan boys getting their arse handed to them...won't mention ARKK.

    I'm not convinced this is a quick flush and then we bounce back up...could be a Jimmy Carter like malaise lasting several years.

    Good Luck to All,

    Baseball Fan
  • edited May 2022
    Hopefully we aren't going full-on "Carter malaise" for the next few years. But can we expect an immediate rebound if only some sectors have taken a beating? The disparity is quite large.

    Value has been trumped by Growth for many years, and perhaps there is some payback here. High-dividend equity has been a good place to be so far YTD (as interest rates rise).

    I would like to see the pain extend across the spectrum a bit more before calling Uncle. Even defensive sectors should get their due in a Bear market.

    +37.3% Energy
    -1.8 Basic Materials
    -2.8 Utilities
    -8.1 Consumer Defensive
    -12.0 Healthcare
    -12.2 Financial
    -16.1 Industrials
    -19.8 Real Estate
    -28.1 Communication Services
    -29.4 Tech
    -33.7 Consumer Cyclical
  • edited May 2022
    Pictorial view for sector ETFs for 6 months, LINK .
  • Does that mean: Sell energy and buy consumer cyclical?
  • Energy may still have legs. If oil prices remain high, energy company profits and cash flows in a few months will be great. Energy still remains a tiny part of SP500 (See chart by Bespoke on Twitter) - but it doesn't have to reach its glorious past to give huge boosts to XLE, IYE, etc. These haven't even reached their mid-2014 all-time highs.

  • hank said:

    Does that mean: Sell energy and buy consumer cyclical?

    My comment was not directly aimed at Energy (and Commodities). My feeling is that the next leg down would need to see some of the stronger YTD performing stocks taking a larger portion of the hit. Tech and Cyclicals have led the way down so far.

    The low tide is not really affecting all the boats just yet. There needs to be some sector rotation.
  • edited May 2022

    Sorry. I was merely reacting to the numbers on the chart and not to any particular poster. However, I do think you’ve nailed it on the head with the accompanying commentary which I should have paid better attention to.

    My “crystal ball” has been broken awhile so no opinion. The “buy low” / “sell high” method should work in theory. However, it might not work if a substantial change in the macro outlook has occurred or if the things that have fallen a lot did so from vastly overvalued levels. A lot to chew on.

    Thank you for the chart. Quite informative and also quite stunning for a mere 5 month period.
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