Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Obscure Bet On Bonds Almost Crashed Treasury Market
    "Huge washouts hit the $29 trillion Treasury market in recent days,
    as investors looking to exploit small price differences in the bedrock of financial markets
    were overcome by volatility resulting from President Trump’s tariff fight."

    "It hinges on moves in the swaps market, a cornerstone of global trading activity.
    Specifically, it relates to the swaps spread, or difference, between the 30-year
    floating Secured Overnight Financing Rate, or “SOFR,” and Treasury yields."

    "The trade counted on the spread to widen, but that hasn’t been playing out.
    Instead, the world got the biggest global trade fight in a century in the form of tariffs,
    and extreme volatility in bonds that has forced a sudden washout of some leveraged players."

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-trade-of-the-year-became-a-nightmare-for-investors-after-trumps-tariffs-adead217
    Edit/Add: Previously, it was widely reported that hedge funds' bets on discrepencies between Treasury prices
    and futures contacts (known as the 'basis trade') were unwound which caused widespread selling in Treasuries.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/190558/#Comment_190558
  • SP500 Goes Crypto
    Coinbase/COIN is replacing Discover Financial (ticker DFS will become inactive) in SP500 on 5/19/25. Change is necessitated by the acquisition of Discover Financial by Capital One/COF.
    So, come next Monday, if you have a SP500 index fund (SPY, IVV, VOO, etc), you will also have some exposure to cryptos. Coinbase is a combo crypto exchange, broker-dealer and custodian.
    https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20250512-1478052/1478052_dfs5.pdf
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/12/coinbase-joining-sp-500-replacing-discover-financial.html
  • JPMorgan Total Return Fund to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1217286/000119312525117329/d807905d497.htm
    497 1 d807905d497.htm JPMORGAN TRUST I
    J.P. MORGAN INCOME FUNDS
    JPMorgan Total Return Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    (All Share Classes)
    (a series of JPMorgan Trust I)
    Supplement dated May 12, 2025 to the current Summary Prospectuses,
    Prospectuses and Statement of Additional Information, as supplemented
    NOTICE OF LIQUIDATION OF THE JPMORGAN TOTAL RETURN FUND. The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of JPMorgan Trust I has approved the liquidation and dissolution of the Fund on or about July 29, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”). Effective immediately, in connection with the liquidation and dissolution, the Fund may depart from its stated investment objective and strategies as it increases its cash holdings in preparation for its liquidation. On the Liquidation Date (for settlement the date after the Liquidation Date), the Fund shall distribute pro rata to its shareholders of record all of the assets of the Fund in complete cancellation and redemption of all of the outstanding shares of beneficial interest, except for any proceeds from any securities that cannot be liquidated on the Liquidation Date, cash, bank deposits or cash equivalents in an estimated amount necessary to (i) discharge any unpaid liabilities and obligations of the Fund on the Fund’s books on the Liquidation Date, including, but not limited to, income dividends and capital gains distributions, if any, payable through the Liquidation Date, and (ii) pay such contingent liabilities as the officers of the Fund deem appropriate subject to ratification by the Board. Income dividends and capital gain distributions, if any, may be paid on or prior to the Liquidation Date. Effective June 1, 2025, Distribution (Rule 12b-1) Fees on Fund shares will be waived.
    Effective immediately, the Fund’s adviser and/or its affiliates have agreed to voluntarily waive fees and/or reimburse expenses to the extent Total Annual Fund Operating Expenses (excluding Acquired Fund Fees and Expenses other than certain money market fund fees as described below, dividend and interest expenses related to short sales, interest, taxes, expenses related to litigation and potential litigation, expenses related to trustee elections, and extraordinary expenses) exceed 0.41%, 1.06%, 0.31%, 0.91%, 0.21% and 0.16% of Class A, Class C, Class I, Class R2, Class R5 and Class R6 Shares, respectively.
    These waivers will be in effect through the liquidation of the Fund. To the extent that the Fund engages in securities lending, affiliated money market fund fees and expenses resulting from the Fund’s investment of cash received from securities lending borrowers are not included in Total Annual Fund Operating Expenses and therefore, the above waivers do not apply to such investments.
    If you have a Fund direct IRA account, your shares will be exchanged for Morgan Shares of the JPMorgan U.S. Government Money Market Fund unless you provide alternative direction prior to the Liquidation Date. For all other IRA accounts, the proceeds will be invested based upon guidelines of the applicable Plan administrator. Upon liquidation, shareholders may purchase any class of another J.P. Morgan Fund for which they are eligible with the proceeds of the liquidating distribution. Shareholders will be permitted to use their proceeds from the liquidation to purchase Class A Shares of another J.P. Morgan Fund at net asset value within 90 days of the liquidating distribution, provided that they remain eligible to purchase Class A Shares. If shareholders of Class C Shares purchase Class C Shares of another J.P. Morgan Fund within 90 days of the liquidating distribution, no contingent deferred sales charge will be imposed on those new Class C Shares. At the time of the purchase you must inform your Financial Intermediary or the J.P. Morgan Funds that the proceeds are from the Fund.
    PURCHASES OF FUND SHARES FROM NEW SHAREHOLDERS WILL NO LONGER BE ACCEPTED ON OR AFTER MAY 19, 2025.
    PURCHASES OF ADDITIONAL SHARES FROM EXISTING SHAREHOLDERS WILL NO LONGER BE ACCEPTED ON OR AFTER JULY 22, 2025, EXCEPT FOR CERTAIN DIVIDEND REINVESTMENT PLANS AND AUTOMATIC PURCHASES.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT WITH THE SUMMARY
    PROSPECTUSES, PROSPECTUSES AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
    FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    SUP-TR-LIQ-525
  • Tariffs
    FYI, there is a very informative article by David Pierson about our contentious trade dispute with China that appeared in yesterday's NY Times. Here are some excerpts:
    "Xi Jinping has been preparing for this moment for years.
    In April 2020, long before President Trump launched a trade war that would shake the global economy, China’s top leader held a meeting with senior Communist Party officials and laid out his vision for turning the tables on the United States in a confrontation.
    Tensions between his government and the first Trump administration had been simmering over an earlier round of tariffs and technology restrictions. Things got worse after the emergence of Covid, which ground global trade to a halt and exposed how much the United States, and the rest of the world, needed China for everything from surgical masks to pain medicines.
    Faced with Washington’s concerns about the trade imbalance, China could have opened its economy to more foreign companies, as it had pledged to do decades ago. It could have bought more American airplanes, crude oil and soybeans, as its officials had promised Mr. Trump during trade talks. It could have stopped subsidizing factories and state-owned companies that made steel and solar panels so cheaply that many American manufacturers went out of business.
    Instead, Mr. Xi chose an aggressive course of action.
    Chinese leaders must “tighten international production chains’ dependence on our country, forming a powerful capacity to counter and deter foreign parties from artificially disrupting supplies” to China, Mr. Xi said in his speech to the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission in 2020.
    Put simply: China should dominate supplies of things the world needs, to make its adversaries think twice about using tariffs or trying to cut China off.
    Mr. Xi has ramped up exports and deepened China’s position as the world’s leading base for manufacturing, in part by directing the state-controlled commercial banking system to lend an extra $2 trillion to industrial borrowers over the past four years, according to data from China’s central bank. He has also introduced new weapons of economic warfare to the country’s arsenal: export controls, antimonopoly laws and blacklists for hitting back at American companies.
    So when the current Trump administration slapped huge tariffs on Chinese goods, China was able to go on the offensive. Besides retaliating with its own taxes, it imposed export restrictions on a wide range of critical minerals and magnets, the global supply of which China had cornered. Such minerals are essential for assembling everything from cars and drones to robots and missiles.
    “It’s about flipping the leverage so that the world is reliant on China, and China is reliant on no one. It is a reversal of what Xi has been so irritated about, which is that China was so dependent on the West,” said Kirsten Asdal, a former intelligence adviser at the U.S. Department of Defense who now heads a China-focused consultancy firm, Asdal Advisory.
    China still relies on the West for many advanced technologies like high-end semiconductors and aircraft engines. But its willingness to weaponize the supply chain may be one of the starkest examples of how Mr. Xi is redefining China’s relationship with the world and challenging the supremacy of the United States like no Chinese leader before him.
    “China will use any and all tools at its disposal to cause pain and impose costs on the U.S. and any country that aligns with America,” said Evan Medeiros, a professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University who was an Asia adviser to President Barack Obama.
    “The entire world,” Mr. Medeiros continued, “is about to learn the answer to a very important question: how reliant are we on trade with China and how much is it worth to us?”
    Mr. Xi has said for years that the United States is bent on thwarting China’s rise, and the trade war appears to have validated his warnings."

  • Private-Equity Wants a Piece of Your 401(k)

    i would say there are legitimate functions for PE and especially PC as governments seem unwilling and unable to singly handle neither the number nor size of 'critical' projects where economic demand is plausible.
    and so this is an avenue for smaller investors to participate, be they so inclined.
    however, the warning flags are plenty :
    - every looser-regulated financial niche attracts more than its fair share of crooks.
    - would alt managers be pushing this hard without the ceiling stop in institutional flows?
    - we are in the golden age of grift with crypto and purchasing of public office...so this is seen as mild in comparison.
  • Private-Equity Wants a Piece of Your 401(k)
    FUNDS. There is a push by the fund trade association ICI to expand access to PRIVATE-MARKETS. Several firms are also pushing in this area. Private-market AUM now is $25 trillion vs $4 trillion in 2013. Many companies are remaining private for longer and several are unicorns already. Private-market remains the domain of institutions, pension funds and accredited-investors; access is through financial advisors. There are only a handful of listed funds, interval-funds and nontraded funds. But the fund industry wants retail customers. In particular, ICI wants the 15% cap on alternatives raised for retail CEFs, inclusion of some private-market options in 401k/403b, and other changes.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/810/weekly-business-digest-12-2025
  • Tariffs
    Thanks @Mark. Per the Jen Rubin article you linked:
    "As University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers told me this week, “President Trump is more effective than the COVID virus at creating chaos.” He continued, “Why did financial markets respond so badly to Liberation Day? It wasn't just because of the tariffs. It was because it showed that this is an utterly incoherent administration with no serious advisers, completely unwilling to face trade-offs or reality.
    Trump observers know that, for all his bluster, he remains a coward—unable to stand the heat. Whether on China tariffs or firing the Federal Reserve Chairman, you can bet he will blink. He pretends he is in talks with China, but lets on that “I’m going to lower [tariffs against China] because otherwise you could never do business with them.” (Then word comes we are in discussions to begin talks.) Why would China’s leaders make any move to appease Trump? If they just wait, he may well retreat on his own."
  • These Funds Have Faced Extreme Flows
    ”Fund flows are kind of funny”
    I’ll say. I’m having trouble finding a common thread. It does look like bond funds have generated more interest over the past year - perhaps partially owing to the very high stock valuations and folks locking in gains. Perhaps in part a flight to safety owing to the political / financial chaos. Additionally, some of the bond inflows could be from disappointed cash investors reaching for yield as rates for cash have fallen over the past year.
    The bond flows went both ways. Franklin’s Western Asset, especially, lost assets owing to the Ken Leech allegations. Equity funds look like a mixed bag. It appears value stock funds did well in asset flows. Since when did retail investors take a liking to deep value? :)
    I’m curious whether more of these flows (in total dollar terms) were initiated by individual “Mom & Pop” investors (you and me) acting on their own or whether more of it was at the direction / behest of financial advisors / plan sponsors acting in their clients’ best interest?
    Hate to ask - But has PRWCX continued to draw money? Or has some of the recent inflow reversed? Last I looked it was about flat YTD.
  • BLX 1Q25 report.
    Reason for confidence:
    As of March 31, 2025, 67% of total liquid assets
    represented deposits placed with the Federal Reserve Bank of New
    York (“FED”), and 23% of total liquid assets represented deposits
    placed with highly rated U.S. banks
    .
    The Bank obtains deposits from central banks, as well as from
    multilaterals, commercial banks and corporations primarily located
    in the Region. Total deposits amounted to $5,859 million at the end
    of 1Q25 (+8% QoQ and +24% YoY), representing 57% of total
    funding sources, compared to 52% a year ago, highlighting the
    change in the funding structure towards increased reliance in
    deposits.
    As of March 31, 2025, the Bank’s Yankee CD program totaled $1,065
    million, or 11% of total funding sources, providing granularity and complementing the short-term funding structure and long-standing
    support from the Bank’s Class A shareholders (i.e.: central banks and
    their designees), which represented 35% of total deposits at the end
    of 1Q25.

    https://mcusercontent.com/6632e94d6daa1bdbf46f55a23/files/df5aa1c9-b39c-71c5-956c-82580004e8e7/PR1Q25_Eng_Full_Report.pdf
    **************************************************
    About Bladex:
    Bladex, a multinational bank originally established by the central banks of Latin-American and Caribbean countries, began operations in 1979 to promote foreign trade and economic integration in the Region. The Bank, headquartered in Panama, also has offices in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, the United States of America, and a Representative License in Peru, supporting the regional expansion and servicing of its customer base, which includes financial institutions and corporations. Bladex is listed on the NYSE in the United States of America (NYSE: BLX), since 1992, and its shareholders include: central banks and state-owned banks and entities representing 23 Latin American countries, commercial banks and financial institutions, and institutional and retail investors through its public listing.
  • WealthTrack Show
    May 2nd Episode:
    Global financial thought leader John Lipsky explains how new US tariff policies are upending world trade and affecting the global financial system, economy and growth.


  • Fiserv outage Friday - taking down Zelle, other banking services
    Key Points
    • A widespread technology outage has disrupted online banking, ACH payments, and services like Zelle for dozens of banks across the U.S.
    • Customers have reported being unable to access accounts, missing direct deposits, and inability to transfer funds or use online bill pay.
    • The outage raises broader concerns about the risks of dependence on third-party technology providers for core banking operations across multiple banks.
    https://thecollegeinvestor.com/57421/banking-outage-leaves-customers-without-account-access/
    See also, e.g. https://www.tomsguide.com/news/live/zelle-down-outage-5-2-25
    Fiserv advertises that it helps its clients "manage single points of failure". Physician, heal thyself.
    In the meantime, it would seem to be a good idea to have multiple checking accounts (those could include brokerage accounts) to protect against outages. And keep a handy dandy paper checkbook in a nearby desk drawer just in case the whole electronic world goes down.
  • May Day
    Today is a momentous day in the history of U.S. financial markets.
    On May 1, 1975, the SEC abolished fixed commission rates for stock transactions.
    Trading costs decreased significantly and the discount brokerage industry was subsequently unleashed.
    https://jasonzweig.com/the-day-wall-street-changed-forever/
  • RiverNorth Core Opportunity Fund to be reorganized into an ETF
    ”comments aside -- despite my errors, the question I posed above moving OEFs to ETFs remains. Note Tweedy, First Eagle, Oakmark (others) doing the same .”
    I’d enjoy a good thread / discussion comparing the benefits of OEFs / CEFs. I think it’s a lot more complicated than just the low fee & ease of trading paradigm usually cited by proponents of etfs.
    I found Jared Dillian’s “No Worries - How to Lead a Stress Free Financial Life” to be an interesting read. The author strongly recommends OEFs over etfs. The main reason seems to be the “detachment” they offer from minute by minute changes in value which may induce knee-jerk and unprofitable trading.
    I somewhat agree. I’ve gone with OEFs for my 4 core holdings (65-70% of portfolio) but also own one sleeve of CEFs / ETFs for the (opportunistic) trading they allow. My suspicion is that OEF investor bases will prove a bit more stable in any big prolonged sell-offs. All speculation of course … .
  • Tariffs
    Nicholas Sargen says Trump’s tariff policies are of historic proportions with lasting consequences for the global economy and financial markets.


  • WealthTrack Show
    Global Shocks author Nicholas Sargen says Trump’s tariff policies are of historic proportions with lasting consequences for the global economy and financial markets.


    https://youtu.be/29N3ttSKXqU
  • We can't find that page
    For those who have joined MFO relatively recently (i.e. any time after 2011)-
    I realize that this is going to sound a little strange, but many parts of the MFO platform were designed by a fellow who called himself Accipiter, if I remember correctly. He worked from a remote geographical location with only a dial-up modem for communication. His record shows that he had made 2,350 visits to MFO before 2015, and most of those "visits" involved his programming work here.
    2,350 visits, via a glacially slow dial-up modem to construct the underpinning of MFO. Who among us would have the dedication or patience to do something like that?
    He was positively brilliant and worked his butt off for a very long time to design many of the MFO features which we still use today. Due to the wear and tear of time, there have been changes in web addresses and such which have rendered some of his gadgets somewhat flaky.
    Remember that MFO is pretty much a volunteer operation, and has only the resources available which can be supported by our infrequent financial contributions. It's a real wonder that MFO is still here at all.
  • Tariffs
    Well, he starred on the Apprentice for many seasons. He is fully qualified, but for what "office" I don't know. Maybe he should have been on the Office TV series.
    It takes a special brand of con man to file so many bankruptcies and STILL be considered a great financial negotiator...at least, in the eyes of some poor souls.
    We get almost 4 more years of the Accordian.
  • Tariffs
    TRUTH!!
    -----
    BREAKING: Billionaire MAGA megadonor Ken Griffin incinerates Donald Trump over his disastrous tariffs and says that America has "has become 20 percent poorer in four weeks."
    Even hardcore Republicans supporters are running for the hills now...
    "The United States was more than just a nation. It’s a brand. It’s a universal brand, whether it’s our culture, our financial strength, our military strength …. America rose beyond just being a country," Griffin said at the Semafor World Economy Summit. "It was like an aspiration for most the world. And we’re eroding that brand right now."
    Griffin, the founder and CEO of the hedge fund Citadel, said that it can take "a lifetime to repair the damage that has been done" to our nation's reputation.
    "If you think of your behavior as a consumer, how many times do you buy a product with a brand on it because you trust that brand?" he said. "In the financial markets, no brand compares to the brand of the US Treasuries — the strength of the US dollar and the strength and creditworthiness of US Treasuries. No brand came close. We put that brand at risk."
    Griffin compared America to a luxury brand dressmaker who destroys their company by sinking into scandal.
    "You know, you can buy like a similar dress with no name for less money, but you want the dress that you think is going to not fall apart in two weeks,” Griffin said. "It can take a very long time — a very long time — to remove the tarnish on a brand."
    He went on to say that the deflation of the U.S. dollar coupled with chaotic and unpredictable economic policy and Trump's attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is a recipe for disaster.
    Griffin then directly criticized Trump's destructive tariffs, saying that they will not lead to any kind of victories but will force those involved to "tread water and not drown."
    He also destroyed the absurd claim that the tariffs will somehow magically bring manufacturing back to the United States despite the Trump administration failing to incentivize such reshoring with robust subsides.
    "I’ll tell you what’s not going to happen is, people are not going to raise [money] to build manufacturing in America because with the policy volatility, you actually undermine the very goal you’re trying to achieve," said Griffin.
    He went on to point out the damage being inflicted on our relationships with our closest allies—
    "How does Canada feel about our country today versus two months ago? How does Europe feel about the United States today versus two months ago?" Griffin asked.
    "And some people scream, ‘Well, it just doesn’t matter.’ But you know what? It matters for a very profound reason. The entire Western world is engulfed in a debt crisis," he added.
    This is what happens when you elect an incompetent egomaniac with no understanding of geopolitics or the complex economic systems that hold the world together. Donald Trump operates on instinct and his instincts are always wrong.
    Please like and share!
  • CrossingBridge’s 1Q25 Investor Commentary entitled “One Fall Can Change It All”
    Please find the link for CrossingBridge’s 1Q25 Investor Commentary entitled “One Fall Can Change It All”
    https://blog.crossingbridgefunds.com/blog/q1-2025
    Feel free to share widely – it’s not just for financial folks.
    Healing,
    David Sherman