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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Dow futures fall 500 points as Credit Suisse shares drop more than 20%
    Apparently something broke in the banking sector not just in US…
    Excerpt from article:
    In recent days, a crisis in the financial sector has centered around regional banks as Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed, both casualties of poor management in the face of eight interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in the last 12 months. Wednesday morning attention turned to the big banks with shares of Credit Suisse hitting an all-time low.
    Saudi National Bank, Credit Suisse’s largest investor, said Wednesday it could not provide any more funding, according to a Reuters report. This comes after the Swiss lender said Tuesday it had found “certain material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting” for the years 2021 and 2022.
    As Credit Suisse dragged down the European Bank sector, U.S. big bank shares declined in sympathy. Citigroup and Wells Fargo shed 3%, while Goldman Sachs and Bank of America fell 2%. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund lost 2.9% in premarket trading, giving up its 2% pop on Tuesday.
    Regional Banks, whose rebounded helped lift sentiment for the broader market on Tuesday, fell back into the red again. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) was down 3% in the premarket, led by losses in Old National Bancorp, Zions Bancorp and Fifth Third Bancorp. To be sure, shares of First Republic Bank were clinging to gains.
    https://cnbc.com/2023/03/14/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
    From Reuters:
    Credit Suisse on Tuesday published its annual report for 2022 saying the bank had identified "material weaknesses" in controls over financial reporting and not yet stemmed customer outflows.
    Switzerland's second-biggest bank is seeking to recover from a string of scandals that have undermined the confidence of investors and clients. Customer outflows in the fourth quarter rose to more than 110 billion Swiss francs ($120 billion).

  • US Plans Emergency Measures To Backstop Banks after SVB
    There are parallels to the 1970s but it's not the same today and the 1970s and their resolution weren't the way they are often described: https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/01/global-economy-policy-financial-crisis-1970s/
  • How are Brokerage and Investment Accounts Protected? - NYT
    When a bank goes bankrupt, depositors are at risk because they are general creditors of the bank. FDIC insurance guarantees that $250K/account type/owner will be covered even if the bank has no assets to pay with.
    Brokerages are different. The securities in your brokerage account, whether MMF shares or T-bills or corporate bonds, or mutual funds or stocks, are still in your account (and untouchable by creditors) if the brokerage goes bust. SIPC insurance protects against someone at the brokerage stealing those securities.
    The securities in your Schwab account—including fully paid securities for stocks and bonds and excess margin securities—are segregated in compliance with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's Customer Protection Rule. This is the legal requirement for all U.S. broker-dealers. Your segregated assets are not available to general creditors and are protected against creditors' claims in the unlikely event that a broker-dealer becomes insolvent
    https://international.schwab.com/account-protection
    Admittedly there are secondary concerns. If the brokerage does flop, it may not be able to give you access to your securities (or cash) efficiently. That's an operational problem, not one of lost assets. Right now, I might be questioning Fidelity, because it uses UMB bank for processing checks and ACH/EFT transfers, and Moody's has placed UMB Financial under review, along with First Republic, Zions Bankcorp., etc.
    https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/moodys-downgrades-signature-bank-junk-places-six-us-banks-under-review-2023-03-14/
  • Federal Reserve’s Path Is Murkier After Bank Blowup
    The Fed has been rapidly raising interest rates to fight inflation. But making big moves could be trickier amid instability.
    Excerpts from a current article in The New York Times-
    The Federal Reserve’s hotly anticipated March 22 interest rate decision is just a week and a half away, and the drama that swept the banking and financial sector over the weekend is drastically shaking up expectations for what the central bank will deliver.
    Before this weekend, investors believed there was a substantial chance that the Fed would make a half-point increase at its meeting next week. But investors and economists no longer see that as a likely possibility.
    Three notable banks have failed in the past week alone as Fed interest rate increases ricochet through the technology sector and cryptocurrency markets and upend even usually staid bank business models. The tumult — and the risks that it exposed — could make the central bank more cautious as it pushes forward.
    Investors have abruptly downgraded how many interest rate moves they expect this year. After Mr. Powell’s speech last week opened the door to a large rate change at the next meeting, investors had sharply marked up their 2023 forecasts, even penciling in a tiny chance that rates would rise above 6 percent this year. But after the wild weekend in finance, they see just a small move this month and expect the Fed to cut rates to just above 4.25 percent by the end of the year.
    Economists at J.P. Morgan said the situation bolstered the case for a smaller, quarter-point move this month. Goldman Sachs economists no longer expect a rate move at all.
    Other economists went even further: Nomura, saying it was unclear whether the government’s relief program was enough to stop problems in the banking sector, is now calling for a quarter-point rate cut at the coming meeting.
    The Fed will receive fresh information on inflation on Tuesday, when the Consumer Price Index is released. That measure is likely to have climbed 6 percent over the year through February, economists in a Bloomberg forecast expected. That would be down slightly from 6.4 percent in a previous reading.
    But economists expected prices to climb 0.4 percent from January after food and fuel prices, which jump around a lot, are stripped out. That pace would be quick enough to suggest that inflation pressures were still unusually stubborn — which would typically argue for a forceful Fed response.
    The data could underline why this moment poses a major challenge for the Fed. The central bank is in charge of fostering stable inflation, which is why it has been raising interest rates to slow spending and business expansions, hoping to rein in growth and cool price increases.
    But it is also charged with maintaining financial system stability, and higher interest rates can reveal weaknesses in the financial system — as the blowup of Silicon Valley Bank on Friday and the towering risks for the rest of the banking sector illustrated. That means those goals can come into conflict.
    Some saw the Fed’s new lending program — which will allow banks that are suffering in the high-rate environment to temporarily move to the Fed a chunk of the risk they are facing from higher interest rates — as a sort of insurance policy that could allow the central bank to continue raising rates without causing further ruptures.
    “The Fed has basically just written insurance on interest-rate risk for the whole banking system,” said Steven Kelly, senior research associate at Yale’s program on financial stability. “They’ve basically underwritten the banking system, and that gives them more room to tighten monetary policy.”

  • How are Brokerage and Investment Accounts Protected? - NYT
    FYI per The NYT:
    "If a brokerage firm is in financial trouble, an entity called the Securities Investor Protection Corporation, known as SIPC, serves as a backstop. It’s a nonprofit corporation that was created under the Securities Investor Protection Act of 1970.
    SIPC generally covers up to $500,000 of securities and cash (including a $250,000 limit for the cash component) for each customer, though that can be higher for people with multiple accounts — depending on the account types and whether they’re individual accounts or jointly held.
    A traditional individual retirement account, a Roth I.R.A. and an individual brokerage account, for example, would each qualify for a $500,000 limit at the same firm. The same goes for a separate joint account or a trust account.
    But if you had two individual brokerage accounts at the same firm, for instance, you would receive only up to $500,000 in protection for both. A married couple with a joint brokerage account — as well as two individual brokerage accounts at the same firm — would receive an additional $500,000 in coverage for the joint account."

    Question: In light of the recent bank failures in California, is or has anybody been breaking up their accounts at different brokerages to meet the SIPC's $500,000 coverage limit? Is anybody concerned in view of Schwab's recent market performance?
    Just curious, since I never considered the possibility of a major national brokerage firm going bankrupt.
    Fred
  • Justice Department opens probe into Silicon Valley Bank
    Excerpts from a current NPR report:
    The Justice Department has launched a inquiry into the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, according to a person with direct knowledge of the investigation.
    Federal prosecutors are starting to ramp up a probe into the doomed Silicon Valley Bank just days after a bank run led to its swift collapse. In response, the the Biden administration took extraordinary measures to shore up billions of dollars in deposits to contain contagion from spreading across the banking sector.
    While the exact nature of the investigation remains unclear, a source familiar said a formal announcement from the Justice Department is expected in the coming days.
    According to former federal prosecutors, one area that may intrigue Justice lawyers involves shares sold by top company executives before the bank imploded.
    Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker sold $3.6 million of company stock two weeks before the bank reported massive losses in the run up to the bank's implosion, according to regulatory filings.

    "A top company executive engaging in a significant financial transaction so close to a cataclysmic event makes sense as something that would be interesting to prosecutors," said Tamarra Matthews Johnson, a former Justice Department lawyer who is now in private practice.
    The sale has triggered new scrutiny of Becker and prompted some politicians to call for him to give the money back.
    Becker has not been accused of any wrongdoing in connection with the stock sale. Becker did not return NPR's request for comment.
    The Wall Street Journal earlier reported news of the Justice Department investigation.

    (Text emphasis added)
  • US Plans Emergency Measures To Backstop Banks after SVB
    Twitter is good for a few things!
    My favorites
    "Just as there are no atheists in Fox Holes, there are also no Libertarians during a financial crisis..."
    ~Barry @Ritholtz,
    https://twitter.com/sruhle/status/1634703830032998400?s=12
    Love uncle Barry.
  • Grim take from M* Yet another SVB thread
    I only mention this because M* typically wears rose-colored glasses . . .
    Here's a taste. No sugar.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1144082/why-investors-should-care-about-the-banking-scare
    It’s easy for investors to dismiss the ripples from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank SVIB as contained and nothing to worry about when it comes to a broader portfolio.
    But if there’s one thing to know about banking crises, it’s that they are never just about the banks. They may start there, but they don’t end there. Easy financial conditions tend to lead to higher risk-taking and a complacency that long-established patterns will continue. Until they don’t.
    As Warren Buffett has been known to observe, only when the tide goes out do you see who’s been swimming naked.
    The Worry Is Fear
    The failure of two major regional banks since Friday threatens to erode investor and consumer confidence to a degree that could spiral in unexpected ways. And with inflation still raging at the highest levels in 40 years and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the most accelerated pace since those years, things are starting to break.
    “The worry is about fear,” says Tim Murray, capital markets strategist for multi-asset portfolios at investment manager T. Rowe Price.
    In good times, too, policymakers get lax and tend to feel like it is safe to repeal or reduce important protections designed to prevent systemic events and consumer safeguards.
    My grandfather used to say the business cycle was driven by how long it took to forget lessons learned the hard way. He rolled up banks working for The Comptroller of the Currency during the Great Depression.
    Ah, the good old days, when depositors money was vaporized.
  • Bank Rescue Plan
    Easy to say when you don't have to worry about spreading many millions of dollars of operating capital around, and yet also need to have that money quickly available when required. That's the way that a significant part of the national business community operates.
    Example: A company needs to safely deposit $20 million, and yet have it easily available, perhaps within a tight timeframe. So they're supposed to break that into eighty separate 250k deposits and find eighty separate banks to use, and yet have all of that quickly and easily available?
    Right.
    Given that reality maybe the federal financial administration ought to put in place a suitable mechanism for that type of business instead of playing games and taking the entire financial system right to the brink of disaster.
    Not all that hard for the fed money masters to do, either.
  • Silicon Valley Bank: Greed and Stupidity Strike Again
    Early on in this post I posed the following question:
    Question: If a major source of the problem is that Silicon Valley Bank was forced to sell US Gov't securities at a loss because their current value is less than their maturity value, why would the FDIC or any other "rescue" authority do the same thing? Rather than take an immediate loss, why wouldn't a "rescue authority" provide immediate funding equal to the actual maturity value of the underlying assets, and then retain those assets until they actually mature, thus minimizing the loss due to the maturity problem?
    And from today's commentary by Matt Levine's "Money Stuff" of Bloomberg Opinion:
    The FDIC and other banking regulators spent the weekend trying to sell SVB, apparently with no luck. Here is what they came up with instead:
    The Treasury Department, Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. jointly announced the efforts aimed at strengthening confidence in the banking system after SVB’s failure spurred concern about spillover effects. ...
    The Fed in a separate statement said it’s creating a new “Bank Term Funding Program” that offers loans to banks under easier terms than are typically provided by the central bank.
    Fed officials said on a briefing call that the facility will be big enough to protect uninsured deposits in the wider US banking system. It was invoked under the Fed’s emergency authority allowing for the establishment of a broad-based program under “unusual and exigent circumstances,” which requires Treasury approval. ...
    Under the new program, which provides loans of up to one year, collateral will be valued at par, or 100 cents on the dollar. That means banks can get bigger loans than usual for securities that are worth less than that — such as Treasuries that have declined in value as the Fed raised interest rates.
    My proposed solution was met with dismissive comments by knowledgeable MFO contributors. Evidently very high federal financial officials saw some merit in the concept.
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    @YBB
    Thanks. You are correct as SPIC covers brokerages
    It was my hope that the banks would have to pay to bail the depositors out rather than just eventually pass the increased costs off to their customers, which is what most of us think will happen.
    At least the precedent of not making the CEOs etc whole has been established. I haven't bothered to look up what Becker (SVB CEO) had in SVB equity but I am sure it was substantial. I am sure he is still a multi-millionaire.
    He has no sense of perspective, given his video address to employees, dressed in a fleece from Gleneagles, where the cheapest rooms start at $600 a night
    NEW YORK (Reuters) -Greg Becker, the chief executive of SVB Financial Group, sent a video message to employees acknowledging the "incredibly difficult" 48 hours leading up to the collapse of its Silicon Valley Bank on Friday.
    "It's with an incredibly heavy heart that I'm here to deliver this message," he said in a video seen by Reuters. "I can't imagine what was going through your head and wondering, you know, about your job, your future."
    Becker wore a black zip-up jacket with a logo from Gleneagles, a luxury golf resort in Scotland, and spoke from a room framed by dark cabinets.
    He asked employees to "hang around, try to support each other, try to support our clients, work together" to get a better outcome for the company.
    "Thank you, and my heart is with you," he said.
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    Since the banks pay the FDIC fees, it is us the customers who will eventually pay
    A lot of the start ups etc used SVB for all oftheir money so their accounts were in the multi-millions
    IT would be politically difficult for the FDIC, even if it does not use taxpayer money, to back accounts of that size routinely. The SPIC protects $500,000 from the banks own funds
    The FDIC should have forced the SPIC to step in first , just to make the point that the industry had to do a better job.
    I wonder if this will only increase the monopolization of the financial system. Even if the FDIC is willing to back any regional bank that gets into trouble, their stocks will be worthless as no on will believe them any more.
  • Forbes "Financial All Stars" for March
    The issue in my mailbox today lists 50 financial firms that " have strong fundamentals to keep out preforming"
    On Page two is our good friend SIBV.
    They also have an article on Blockchain recommending Signature Bank
    I can't understand why people read this, except for anything other than a laugh.
    Did anybody see how SJIM is doing?
  • Schwab, First Republic, Zion, bank loan and preferred funds bloodbath
    Can anyone explain why preferred shares are taking it on the chin today other than guilt by association? I can somewhat understand why financial firm shares are getting hit but I don't own any of those nor would I.
  • Blood in the Streets SCHW etc
    I bought some SCHW at 51+ this morning. I had considered it on Friday but decided to see how the weekend went. It touched 45 early this morning, but I spent some time looking for data and opinions before pulling the trigger.
    I'm somewhat nervous about taking this position, because this is not an industry I've followed (even though I've had some BAC for years).
    Everything in the financial industry has been tarnished. I considered adding to my AXP position (down about 10% in the last month) but don't really see this as a big buying opportunity (yet).
    CNBC has had some interesting guests through the day. Brad Gerstner of Altimeter Capital for one.
    The world of big banks seems much more complicated than the banking issues most of us have encountered in our lives. So their "governance/regulation" is pretty complex.
    Like many other "large" issues in our economy, there are often no easy answers.
    David
  • Bank Rescue Plan
    @WABAC- exactly. Many commentators are failing to distinguish between rescuing banks (let 'em fail!!) and preventing a complete financial meltdown by not punishing bank depositors for, evidently, having too much money.
  • J. Grantham warns another yr bear market
    ”stocks were in a speculative bubble and about to pop”
    Statements like that tell you nothing. Which stocks? Where on the planet? A lot of time the general term “stocks” is applied to the U.S. S&P 500 Index. I’d have no problem believing Grantham (or at least giving the statement some credence) if that’s what he’s referencing.
    “Pop” Great financial term. :)
  • US Plans Emergency Measures To Backstop Banks after SVB
    Twitter is good for a few things!
    My favorites
    "Just as there are no atheists in Fox Holes, there are also no Libertarians during a financial crisis..."
    ~Barry @Ritholtz,
    https://twitter.com/sruhle/status/1634703830032998400?s=12
  • Blood in the Streets SCHW etc
    Anybody buying? I just toe dipped into JPM but not brave enough for SCHW
    Any opinion? CFO says they have plenty of liquidity
    Charles Schwab Says It Has Access to 'Significant' Liquidity; Reports Decline in Total February Client Assets
    9:59 AM ET, 03/13/2023 - MT Newswires
    09:59 AM EDT, 03/13/2023 (MT Newswires) -- Charles Schwab (SCHW) on Monday assured investors that it has access to "significant" liquidity with "very little chance" it would need to sell its held-to-maturity securities prior to maturity.
    Chief Financial Officer Peter Crawford said the company's business continues to perform "exceptionally well" and expects year-over-year growth of about 10% in Q1 revenue.
    More than 80% of the company's total bank deposits fall within the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. limits, Crawford said, adding that cash outflows in February were about $5 billion lower than in January and March.
    Total client assets were $7.38 trillion as of the end of February, down 4% from a year earlier and represents a sequential decline of 1%, the company said.
    Charles Schwab shares were down more than 15% in early trading.
    Barrons
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/charles-schwab-stock-price-bank-selloff-4bb1ae5f?mod=md_stockoverview_news&mod=article_inline
    "Last year, Schwab generated more than $10 billion of net interest revenue, which represented about half its total annual revenue, according to the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report. That revenue is the difference between the interest Schwab earns on bonds and loans and the interest it pays out to its funding sources, which are primarily uninvested client cash balances. Schwab’s net interest revenue looks increasingly at risk as interest rates rise."
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    Depositors with big cash holdings are – reasonably – expected to be aware of the risks and spread their cash around several institutions. Businesses backed by venture capital, such as the customers of SVB, ought to have been advised how to manage their liquid holdings.
    ... the sight of depositors being made whole ... provides a disincentive for both depositors and banks to be prudent. There’s no reward here for SVB customers who banked more carefully.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/03/13/svb-crisis-backstop-revives-the-specter-of-moral-hazard/bb2731c6-c188-11ed-82a7-6a87555c1878_story.html
    As I wrote above, I take a darker view. It's not just the presence of reward (higher returns) but the absence of punishment that's a problem with risky deposits. There's no penalty (loss) for large depositors to be reckless with their savings.
    However, it's not every bank failure that gets protection. It's not automatic. It's just the banks that take the most outrageous risks and lose that are directly protected by the government. On infrequent occasions, uninsured depositors lose money. That happens when a failed bank is not TBTF, but the the FDIC can't find a buyer that will assume all of the bank's deposit liabilities.
    https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/
    This unequal treatment has its own problems, as discussed in this 1990 paper (near the end of the quoted section):
    A good first step... would be to cease the present practice of fully paying out uninsured depositors when bank failures occur. This practice, of course, is de facto insurance [emphasis in original] ... Paul Duke, Jr. reports that "many [bankers] support proposals to give depositors a 'haircut' a 10% of 15% loss on deposits above the [FDIC insurance limit] — when a bank fails. Two of banking's biggest guns, Citicorp Chairman John Reed and Chase Manhattan President Thomas Lebrecque, support variations of this proposal (WSJ, Aug 3, 'S9, A16). ... Such a shift in policy should not encounter insuperable opposition since it falls far short of enforcing the insurance limitations which legally already exist.
    Since the Continental Illinois bankruptcy the federal banking and S&L authorities have adopted a too—big—to-fail policy. The policy is closely related to the unwritten policy of rescuing any faltering American corporation if it is large enough. The most notable cases so far have been Continental Illinois and Chrysler.
    ...In the beginning this de facto extension of coverage only applied to the banks and S&Ls which were large enough to have a wide financial influence. ... only the eleven largest banks were originally covered, hence the designation "too-big—t o—fail". The government however was rightfully criticized for this policy on the grounds that it put smaller banks at a competitive disadvantage, so, to correct this inequity the government has for several years made it a general policy to pay off all depositors in both large and small failed banks.
    https://scholarworks.umt.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=10130&context=etd