Yieldstreet (2015- ) is an online platform that allows retail investors to participate in private market alternative deals (equity, debt) - real estate (26% of AUM), art, legal finance, startups, ship scraping/recycling, etc. The ER may be up to 2%. It promotes these as "Invest like the 1%" or as democratizing private equity/credit. Promised regular income was another lure - some projects haven't paid out a penny. Some private projects have high profile names of celebrities associated with them but that's just PR. Its reports to investors only are often marked confidential and aren't filed or posted anywhere. When these reports were delayed or stopped, or indicated additional risks, or there were notices for additional rescue funding (a clever name for rights-offering in the listed securities world), the concerned investors had to turn to social-media for any related information. All they had in hand were flashy promos/brochures that got them into the projects. In some cases, the indicated collaterals weren't found or were inadequate.
But the convenience of online transactions or App (Apple Store or Google Play) doesn't replace risks of these illiquid, poorly understood/disclosed investments. There have been significant defaults and some projects have totally collapsed (i.e. became worthless). Yieldstreet blames bad real estate market and higher interest rates for private investments started in 2021-22.
A new approach by Yieldstreet is to expand as broker-dealer and to offer funds (non-listed or listed) from established firms for platform fees. A new CEO started in 05/2025. So, a company can just change direction, replace the CEO, but if you lost money, you are out of luck.
Lesson - look deeply BEFORE investing, not AFTER.
CNBC News https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/18/yieldstreet-real-estate-bets-customer-losses.html
Wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yieldstreet
Website https://www.yieldstreet.com/

@hank,
You're right—the probabilty for rate cuts was higher several weeks ago.
The probability of a 50 bps cut was also calculated but this went to zero
after the latest CPI data release.
Powell will not announce his resignation nor should he.

Thanks @Observant1 / Sounds right. The source I was citing (at near 90%) was a bit dated and referencing the early August probabilities - the 4th of August as I recall. That was much higher than early July (under 50%).
What are the chances Powell will announce his resignation, thereby allowing Trump’s new appointee to become the “fall guy” for the incoming recession? Wonder where those odds are published?

The CME Group indicates there is a 84.6% probability of a 25 bps cut at the
Sep. 17 FOMC meeting while there is a 15.4% probability that no action is taken.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
The next releases for the PCE Price Index (Aug. 29), Employment Situation (Sep. 5),
and CPI (Sep. 11) will be scrutinized and may affect the Federal Reserve's decision.
The Fed hosts dozens of central bankers, policymakers, economists, and academics
at the Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming from Aug. 21-23.
Chairman Powell's Jackson Hole speech is highly anticipated.

seems ok to me @ 1757 ET Sun night

My 403(b) remains entirely in dividend-paying equities in RWMGX. Thankfully Capital Group's funds aren't beholden to (or track) the Mag-7 that overweights indices and therefore forces insane performance-chasing. For some accounts, I boring is beautiful.
The only changes to that account I'd consider making right now is shiftting a not-insignificant (25-40%) percentage into EUPAC (RERGX) for greater international diversification .. but I'm still on the fence.

”It takes money to make money … ” - Old cliche. So true. So the cost of drawing down may be greater than it seems.
All kinds of factors to weigh -
Is the money coming out of a Taxable account, Traditional IRA, Roth IRA?
Are you sitting on a 3% mortgage? If so, let the music play on. Do you own a home? Rent?
Costs of living rise with age. Not just medical costs. How about all the home maintenance you used to do yourself? Climbing ladders gets harder at 80 than when you were 50 or 60.

most quantitative information points to a fairly long life for the EU defense sector, pulling up EU economies in general. there is some fuzziness around how long certain EU military buys must continue from america to retain critical platform compatibility.
https://reuters.com/markets/eu-could-win-the-trade-war-with-us-2025-08-07/
enthusiasm for american defense companies is ~midterm, as capacity builds in europe; that reliance will decrease irregularly for a decade or so.
there are always those few that think trump will come to his senses and the world will again trust an american populace that elected him twice (and who knows what's next).
also, simply on performance:price rather than politics, countries like south korea excel in many parts of the defense sector after being informed never to rely on equipment availability from the west.

Interesting take on the SWR and why it probably doesn't matter if you know what it is.

The people most concerned about outliving their money tend to be the least likely to actually do so. They stack conservative assumption upon conservative assumption—projecting higher-than-expected inflation, worst-case market returns, maximum sequence-of-return risk—and then underspend out of fear. They end up dying with too much money and too many unfulfilled dreams.
Yes, the 4% rule might give us a loose framework. Yes, financial models have value. But they were never meant to become shackles.
The truth is, you can’t predict the future. Black swan events, long-term care needs, unexpected medical expenses—these things happen. But the bigger danger for this audience isn’t overspending.
It’s under-living.

Link to Article:
why-youre-wasting-time-worrying-about?
also,
A discussion from Reddit regarding SWR and how it is just a rough calculation and not a fine tuned retirement spending strategy:
DIYRetirement/comments/safe_withdrawal_rates_and_variable_cash_flows

Trends in 401k Allocations
Equity allocations in workplace retirement 401k are rising, as the chart below from Vanguard shows. Some of it is due to the popularity of TDFs (target-date funds; glide-path allocations) as default (& popular) options within 401k. However, the retirement account holders are free to adjust their allocations, but typically don't. While the WSJ article may require subscription, the key chart linked/shown below shows the essence of the article.
WSJ (subscription) https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/retirement/us-401k-retirement-stock-market-84cfe48d
I also track the overall allocations within all listed US funds - loosely, America's asset allocation. It also indicates rising equity allocations, but not as high as the Vanguard 401k data.
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.34%, Hybrids 4.14%, Bonds 17.47%, M-Mkt 17.05%
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2119/thread
People should review their overall allocations periodically to see if they are comfortable with the current asset allocations.
https://i.ibb.co/n5Nf8ck/WSJ-Allocations-401k-081725.png

Stumbled across this. Thought worth posting. FWIW
Morningstar

Just posted all ratings and flow data to MFO Premium site using Refinitiv data drop through Friday, 15 August 2025.

Link

Effective August 15, 2025, this Mutual Fund will undergo a 6-for-1 share split. The Mutual Fund share split will apply to shareholders of record as of the close of markets on August 14, 2025. Shares will begin trading at their post-split price on August 18, 2025. Forward share splits increase the number of shares outstanding and decrease the Net Asset Value (NAV) per share. The share splits will not change the total value of a shareholder's investment.

Thanks @LarryB.

15 August, '25:
What WILL the FED do in September? Inflation remains hot. Some are calling the situation, "stagflation Light."
Where is the neutral rate, then? KELSEY BERRO: at the moment, rates are modestly restrictive, at 4,25-4,5%. KATHY JONES: Bessent is wrong. Rates as low as he is suggesting would be "fairly inflationary." There's room for a .25% cut in September. We need to see more data, to provide surer footing as to when and how much to do whatever. Anyhow, consumer spending is not "falling off a cliff." There's been a 10% drop in the value of the dollar. That should cause effects we are yet to see fully, too.
BERRO: Next payroll report will be a key item to watch for.
...Jackson Hole (already?!) next week. JONES: Uncertain outlook. Dunno what we should expect to hear from J. Powell. Inflation is still too high, with a hint in the numbers that it's moving higher, not lower. Still, the labor market is far from rolling over completely. But tariff effects have yet to be fully seen, too. There quite a lot of volatility in the statistics. BERRO: Powell will want for his remarks to NOT necessarily move the Market. The FED must remain data-driven.
AUGUST, so far = a record for Leveraged Loan launches.
LYNHAM and O'CONNOR went back and forth re: Junk vs. I.G.
O'CONNOR said we are at or near the top of the credit cycle. What does that mean?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-08-15/real-yield-8-15-2025-video

I rely mostly on a few OEFs for the large core positions. But my etf / cef holdings have grown in number with the incorporation of 2 Fidelity baskets. I assume @msf would also consider CEFs as well as individual equities pertinent to the discussion.
Usually (for etfs / CEFs) I enter “market” and let Fidelity shop price. Sometimes with thinly traded securities that turns up blank. You’ll get a message that the amount entered is “excessive” or something like that. Then, I toy around with lesser quantities and begin using various limit orders. Often, setting a limit price gets around the issue. I don’t know why.
Almost invariably Fidelity comes up with a better price than my order specified. So @msf sounds correct that it’s not worth fretting about (unless it’s a very large order). When trading outside regular market hours be very careful. You’ll get the limit price you specify. And, if Fidelity can’t obtain / sell what I want for the limit price, I sometimes start chipping away with progressively higher / lower bids. There’s actually an option displayed that allows you to “modify” the existing order.
I wouldn’t be overly discouraged if liquidity surfaces as an issue. I’ve yet to fail buying or selling the desired number of shares of an etf or CEF. Persistence (repeatedly bidding in smaller amounts) pays off and the price generally remains fairly stable. I’ve entered as many as 15 or 20 orders to buy or sell a security within an hour’s time and have yet to fail to get it to work as intended. 3 tries turn up empty, and then the 4th try works. How it seems to work.
-
d

at the risk of further exciting certain opportunists who are unable to invest directly in ICE, noted SEC filing forensic analyst Michelle Leder dropped a note on prison profiteer geo group.
geo has been a 'trump trade' for 2 characteristics :
1. long disdain for ESG, where Leder focuses her corp governance expertise.
2. the 'immigration' entertainment catalyst rounding up citizens and non-criminals alike, billed to taxpayers
" ...operate over a dozen prisons (they call them processing centers) under a contract with ICE. Needless to say, business is booming. When it reported second quarter results last week, revenues were up 5% to ~$640million for the quarter. Investors were not impressed, sending the stock down over 20% on the results.
In my adopted hometown of LA, you don’t have to drive too far to see brown-skinned people being rounded up at the Lowes or Home Depot. Today's LA Times had a story about a 15year-old -- the same age as my son -- being approached by ICE agents wielding guns on his way into a local school...
For many people, myself included, this represents an unprecedented attack on people who are just going about their lives. For GEO, it represents “unprecedented business opportunities”. That’s the exact language that the company has used in three separate SEC filings...
In the July 10 8-K, the company extended the contract for founder and Executive Chairman George Zoley. When Zoley transitioned from CEO to Exec Chairman 5 years ago at the age of 71, the company entered into an agreement for him to serve as Exec Chairman through July 1, 2026. Yesterday, the company extended that date to April 2, 2029, citing the “unprecedented business opportunities” as the primary reason.
...Zoley’s target bonus and target stock award will both increase to $1.5million, up from $1million previously. In the same filing, the company also increased CEO J. David Donahue’s target bonus and stock grant to 150%, again citing the “unprecedented business opportunities” [to] $1.5million. ...Donahue only took over as CEO on Jan. 1, that seems as if he’s being rewarded for luck, rather than any type of managerial skill. GEO stock rose sharply after Trump won on Nov, 5, GEO Group stock has been falling since he took office January 20.
Rewarding executives when business is booming makes a lot of sense. But what if the reason that it’s booming is due to highly questionable legal tactics and misery for all sorts of people? Much of LA has been living under a pall for the past 2 months, where people are afraid to drop their kids off at summer camp or go grocery shopping. Is that really worth a hefty reward for two executives? If nothing else, the optics behind these awards are pretty dreadful..."
linkedin.com

SHLD is a good fund, I have been in that for a while. It is up 66.8% YTD with 59% US exposure, 41% non-US.

Some links:
Fidelity Select Defense & Aerospace FSDAX appears to be the big dog in the OEF world, up 37.7% YTD but with only 6.3% in non-US equity.
ITA - iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF up 35.2% YTD
PPA - Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF up 27.5% YTD
And one more:
Top 10 Aerospace and Defense Companies in Europe in 2021 by Revenue

Always playing both ends off the middle here. We will celebrate surviving 25 years together in 2026. Married, even! A big deal expensive trip is in the offing. Stashing cash in MMkt to grow it and keep it away from the ravages of the Stock Market. Otherwise, reinvesting divvies.