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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Steep Tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China Will Take Effect Saturday
    Businesses, shoppers brace for higher prices if tariffs on Mexico and Canada imports start Saturday
    Following are edited excerpts from a current NPR report:
    Businesses and shoppers in the U.S. are bracing for higher prices on everything from gasoline to guacamole, as President Trump renews his threat to impose steep tariffs this weekend on imports from two of the country's biggest trading partners.
    Trump told reporters at the White House Thursday that he intends to follow through with his threat to slap a 25% tax on imports from Canada and Mexico starting Saturday, in response to what he called a flow of immigrants and drugs across the country's northern and southern borders.
    General Motors told financial analysts on Tuesday that it could shift some pickup truck production out of Mexico and Canada if tariffs are imposed. But the automaker is reluctant to act while the trade landscape is still uncertain.
    "We are prepared to mitigate near-term impacts," said CEO Mary Barra. "What we won't do is spend [a] large amount of capital without clarity." The auto industry in North America is highly integrated, relying on manufacturing in all three countries.
    Mexico is a leading producer of flat-screen TVs.
    Canada is also a major supplier of crude oil to U.S. refineries, especially in the Midwest. "Increasing expenses by 25% is going to lead to higher costs at the pump for U.S. consumers and higher input costs for businesses around the country," said Matthew Martdin of Oxford Economics.
    Mexico and Canada would likely respond to any tariffs by imposing taxes of their own on U.S. exports.
  • Inflation watch- Your Coffee just went up (then down) by 50%
    @Gary1952: Hope you aren't needing gasoline, major appliances, a flat-screen TV, automotive products, or lumber to build a home, because taxes on anything imported from Canada or Mexico will increase by 25% starting tomorrow.
  • Steep Tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China Will Take Effect Saturday
    Following are excerpts from a current New York Times report:
    Tariffs on goods from the United States’ three largest trading partners will go into effect on Saturday, a Trump spokeswoman confirmed Friday. Goods from Mexico and Canada will be subject to 25 percent tariffs and those from China will be hit by a 10 percent tariff. Those countries account for more than a third of the goods and services that are imported to or bought from the United States, supporting tens of millions of American jobs, and all three of their governments have promised to answer Mr. Trump’s levies with tariffs of their own on U.S. exports.
    In a press briefing on Friday, the White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said the president would put in place a 25 percent tariff on goods from Mexico, a 25 percent tariff on goods from Canada and a 10 percent tariff on goods from China.
    Ms. Leavitt said the president had chosen to impose tariffs because the three countries “have all enabled illegal drugs to pour into America.”
    “The amount of fentanyl that has been seized at the southern border in the last few years alone has the potential to kill tens of millions of Americans,” she said. “And so the president is intent on doing this.”
    The tariffs are likely to initiate the kind of disruptive trade wars seen in Mr. Trump’s first term, but at a much larger scale.
    Mexico, China and Canada account for more than a third of the goods and services imported to or bought from the United States, supporting tens of millions of American jobs.
    All three governments have promised to answer Mr. Trump’s levies with tariffs of their own on U.S. exports, including Florida orange juice, Tennessee whiskey and Kentucky peanut butter.
    The tariffs will immediately raise costs for the importers who bring products across the border. In the nearer term, that could disrupt supply chains and lead to product shortages, if importers choose not to pay the cost of the tariff. And in the longer run, companies may choose to pass the cost on to American consumers, raising prices and slowing the economy.
    Mr. Trump’s desire to hit allies and competitors alike with tariffs over issues that have little to do with trade demonstrates the president’s willingness to use a powerful economic tool to fulfill his domestic policy agenda, particularly his focus on illegal immigration.
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 12/31/24
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 12/31/24
    Shift from stocks to money-market funds. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $39.69 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $396.9 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes. #ICI #Funds #OEFs #ETFs
    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 60.54%, Hybrids 4.24%, Bonds 17.58%, M-Mkt 17.64%
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1864/thread
  • Mesirow Enhanced Core Plus Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1593547/000139834425001451/fp0092095-2_497.htm
    497 1 fp0092095-2_497.htm
    THE ADVISORS’ INNER CIRCLE FUND III
    (the “Trust”)
    Mesirow Enhanced Core Plus Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated January 30, 2025 to the Fund’s Prospectus (the “Prospectus”) and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”), each dated January 28, 2025
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Prospectus and SAI, and should be read in conjunction with the Prospectus and SAI.
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust, at the recommendation of Mesirow Financial Investment Management, Inc. (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser of the Fund, has approved a plan of liquidation providing for the liquidation of the Fund’s assets and the distribution of the net proceeds pro rata to the Fund’s shareholders. In connection therewith, the Fund is closed to investments from new and existing shareholders effective immediately. The Fund is expected to cease operations and liquidate on or about March 3, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”). The Liquidation Date may be changed without notice at the discretion of the Trust’s officers.
    Prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem (sell) their shares in the manner described in the “Purchasing, Selling and Exchanging Fund Shares – How to Sell Your Fund Shares” section of the Prospectus. For those Fund shareholders that do not redeem (sell) their shares prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute to each such shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash distribution equal in value to the shareholder’s interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date.
    In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, the Adviser may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate the Fund’s orderly liquidation, such as by holding cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
    The liquidation distribution amount will include any accrued income and capital gains, will be treated as a payment in exchange for shares and will generally be a taxable event for shareholders investing through taxable accounts. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning your particular tax situation. Shareholders remaining in the Fund on the Liquidation Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Fund. However, the net asset value of the Fund on the Liquidation Date will reflect costs of liquidating the Fund. Shareholders will receive liquidation proceeds as soon as practicable after the Liquidation Date.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    MES-SK-007-0200
  • 2025 Trump Executive Orders
    For reasons unknown this highly-watched and commented post has been banished to the wastelands of the Off-Topic section. This link will take you there.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/29/25
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/29/25
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (41.0%, above average) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (25.0%, below average); bearish remained the middle sentiment (34.0%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +7.0% (average). Investor concerns: Budget, debt, inflation, the Fed, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (153+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+ weeks; cease fire). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks mixed (growth down, cyclicals up), bonds up, oil down, gold up, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 50.94% (positive, barely). Fed held rate with guidance for flat or lower rates. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1862/thread
  • Wall Street Enters Darker Age With Most Stock Trading Hidden
    ”Front running is useless, unless others react and push the prices farther in the intended direction.”
    Thanks @BaluBalu. That’s good to know.
    Actually I was asking whether the hidden trading might sometimes serve to intentionally hide certain trades from public view - for any reason? Or is it as @Yogi suggested merely a way to reduce costs and make markets operate more efficiently? If it’s simply done for efficiency and to keep costs down it shouldn’t matter whether 50%, 75% or 90% of all trades are hidden. As the linked article states, the trend is upward.
  • FOMC Statement, 1/29/25
    YBB Notes After the Press Conference
    Rates: Fed funds held at 4.25-4.50%, bank reserves rate at 4.40%, discount rate at 4.50%. Treasury QT continues at -$25 billion/mo, MBS QT at -$35 billion/mo.
    Financial conditions are restrictive considering that the longer term rates have risen. Fed fund rates are well above the neutral rate (that’s known in hindsight only), so the trend for fed fund rates is flat or down.
    Fed has a dual mandate for inflation & jobs. It will stick to the +2% average inflation target (trailing 12 months) as most global central banks do. It’s a bad idea to talk about changing the goals while not meeting them. The 5-yr Fed review will not include the +2% average inflation target.
    There are uncertainties with any new administration. So, the Fed will be watching how the details evolve for fiscal, tariff & immigration policies.
    Fed will evaluation President’s Executive Orders & the applicable laws (Dodd-Frank, etc) as they relate to DEI (diversity, equity & inclusion) & other matters. The Fed operates with its own resources & not with annual federal budget allocations. The importance of central bank independence has been proven over time.
    Fed models consider a wide range of parameters & outcomes, but it waits for specific scenarios to develop before acting.
    The Fed has withdrawn from the NGFS (Network for Greening the Financial System) because NGFS goals have become too broad globally, while the Fed has narrower mandate & focus.
    The Fed isn’t concerned about the stock market levels or the popularity of cryptos, but it evaluates them from the perspectives of financial stability. Regulation of banks under Fed supervision is to ensure that asset risks are appropriately accounted for.
    Housing OERs are coming down from high levels. Higher mortgage rates are negatively impacting housing.
    Consumers will benefit from lower inflation, but that doesn’t mean lower prices & that is causing some unhappiness.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1861/thread
  • FOMC Statement, 1/29/25
    Guys, give it up on that 2% target that's been around since at least the aftermath of the GFC. We're doing fairly well at 4.25 - 5% in most cases....
  • Buying Treasury floating rate notes at brokerages
    USFR paid distribution on 1/28/25.
    As of 1/28/25, the 30 days SEC yield is 4.25%.
    https://wisdomtree.com/investments/etfs/fixed-income/usfr
  • Inflation watch- Your Coffee just went up (then down) by 50%

    Best post in another TDS thread.
    Let me guess the next 4 years...same old stuff.
    And now the Dems scream about inflation...mmm...where were you when inflation hit the ceiling?
    Former White House ethics lawyer: Trump actions ‘pushing the limits’ common in dictatorships
    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5108520-donald-trump-norm-eisen-watchdog-firings-birthright-citizenship/
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    Tom Bowley's latest video from pre-market on Tuesday -
    He is pretty dour on the market and says be prepared for a 10% correction in SPX, down to 5500. I do not recall Tom being this downbeat about the market in the past couple of years.

    What a difference a day makes. Of course, it would mean nothing to the peanut gallery.
  • Inflation watch- Your Coffee just went up (then down) by 50%
    Best post in another TDS thread.
    Let me guess the next 4 years...same old stuff.
    And now the Dems scream about inflation...mmm...where were you when inflation hit the ceiling?
  • Inflation watch- Your Coffee just went up (then down) by 50%
    There's more to that plane landing business and tariff fight than meets the eye. For example I didn't know that "... Colombia and the U.S. had an existing agreement for deportations under former president Joe Biden, and it accepted 475 deportation flights from 2020 to 2024, accepting 124 flights in 2024 alone."
    Heather Cox Richardson - Letters From an American, January 27, 2025. Link
  • (Invesco) QQQ quarterly outlook report

    By Ryan T. McCormack and Paul J. Schroeder. January 21, 2025.
    Performance Takeaways
    ° Invesco QQQ advanced by 4.07% on an NAV total return basis and outperformed the S&P 500® Index in Q4 2024.
    ° For 2024, QQQ saw an NAV total return of 25.60%, and outperformed the S&P 500 Index’s total return of 25.00%.
    ° QQQ’s overweight exposure and outperformance of the Consumer Discretionary sector and underweight exposure to the Health Care sector (per Industry Classification Benchmark- ICB) were the largest contributors to relative performance against the S&P 500 Index.(1)
    This post is offered up as food for thought and nothing more.
    Link
  • FDIC rescinds more than 200 job offers for examiners it needs
    I can see crypto being the next liar loans, sub-sub prime type debacle and leading to the next crisis down the road. Add: When NFT's come back run for the hills.
    It already is. Look into Gemini Earn and the impact of its counterparty risk, which was VERY VERY similar to the GFC and CDOs. I was making *nice* interest on my then-crypto savings but after a few months I really got queasy and got out completely ..... soonafter the 'crypto winter' began and the lawsuits started. Dodged a bullet there, I did since many folks are still waiting to get some/all of their money back.
    FOTUS' recent memecoins are a perfect way of buying influence. All a donor/nation has to do is tell him what their blockchain ID is and he can confirm "their payment was received" --- totally anonymous yet completely 'transparent' in the public ledger.
    The next GFC is going to be epic, I bet.....and it could well happen on FOTUS' watch.