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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • "Experts" Forecast Stock and Bond Returns: 2025 Edition
    If the below data is correct (and please advise if it is not), just an incredible performance by PRWCX today.
    PRWCX had just under 40% in Tech as of 12/31/24, and yet somehow, today, when FBALX (the allocation fund we have long owned as PRWCX's companion) shed 1.32%, PRWCX only shed 0.34%.
    Note of course that Giroux has dropped his his equity stake to under ~55% while FBALX is holding closer to their normal ranges at ~64% with ~32% in Tech.
    Bottom Line: PRWCX was slightly outperforming FBALX YTD coming into today, but that lead has now widened to ~1.67%.
    All in a year that Giroux per the above ^ chart predicts an S&P drop of 11.6%.
    Well done, David! Well done!
    -------------------------------
    And as a follow up to my prior post about port changes this year, specifically adding Value, we bought two US LCV funds late last year, OAKMX and DAGVX.
    DAGVX is UP 5.35% YTD and only shed 0.26% today.
    OAKMX (a fund we held for years long ago) is UP 6.31% YTD, with a nice 0.95% gain today!
    If you are looking for worthy domestic OEF diversifiers, you can do a lot worse than these two!
  • FDIC rescinds more than 200 job offers for examiners it needs
    Following are edited excerpts from a current Washington Post report:
    A government-wide hiring freeze has led the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to yank job offers to more than 200 new examiners, the front-line employees who closely monitor banks to ensure they operate safely and adhere to an extensive rule book.
    The FDIC is already facing a staffing challenge, particularly with a lack of examiners, undermining its ability to reduce the risk of bank failures. A chronic shortage of examiners contributed to the failure of Signature Bank, one of three large banks to collapse in 2023, the agency has said.
    Examiners are essentially charged with making sure a bank doesn’t fail, a critical function at the roughly 6,000-employee FDIC, of which roughly 2,300 are examiners. The agency oversees about 4,500 banks around the country, most of them small. It also insures trillions of bank deposits and winds down failing banks. Its work is funded through industry assessments.
    Perhaps more significantly, the agency is already in need of additional examiners, with frequent turnover and staffing shortages contributing to major setbacks in recent years. Current and former regulators said they feared the situation could snowball if hiring cuts combine with an uptick in the departures of retirement-eligible employees.
    A review of the March 2023 failure of Signature Bank found the supervisory group overseeing large financial institutions in the FDIC’s New York office had average vacancies of about 40 percent. For the six years before Signature’s collapse, the FDIC couldn’t adequately staff the team dedicated to the bank.
  • Inflation watch- Your Coffee just went up (then down) by 50%
    Give FOTUS a break. That golf ball he's chasing is 5x larger than his brain.
    Tariffs - the wave of the future. They really do work.... at least, until somebody with any kind of clue finally calls your bluff.
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    Will DeepSeek be the pin to the bubble?
    Stay tuned.

    YBB,
    Necessity is the mother of invention. US companies have lost their minds with unlimited access to capital and Nvidia chips. So, they did not have to be disciplined. A $500B joke!
    Corporate America is always trying to out grift American politicians. Both these cast of characters have conditioned us not to question their motives until conditions become extreme.
    Jensen Haung knew today is coming, based on his behavior over the past few weeks. But all my cousins in Tech keep drinking the cool aid.
    Today is too soon for me to buy any American company.
    I am often reminded of the guy that built the Gossamer Albatross. I saw him on the speaking circuit back in 1979. IIRC, he asked Dupont why they gave him 200K to build his human-powered airplane. He said they told him that it would cost them 10 million to do the same thing.
  • NVDA and largest market-cap losses

    Per BBG, 8 of the 10 biggest market-cap declines were NVDA....
    1 Nvidia $-560B 1/27/25
    2 Nvidia -279 9/3/24
    3 Meta -251 2/3/22
    4 Nvidia -228 1/7/25
    5 Nvidia -212 4/19/24
    6 Nvidia -208 6/24/24
    7 Amazon -206 4/29/22
    8 Nvidia -205 7/17/24
    9 Nvidia -205 7/24/24
    10 Nvidia -197 8/29/24
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    Bloomberg reports that NVDA set a record today for biggest dollar loss in a single day by any company.
    Lead sentence from longer article at Bloomberg Media LLC online site: ”Nvidia Corp's plunge, fueled by investor concern about Chinese artificial-intelligence startup DeepSeek, erased a record amount of stock-market value from the world's largest company.”
    Biggest Single-Day Market Cap Losses
    1 Nvidia $-465B 1/27/25
    2 Nvidia -279 9/3/24
    3 Meta -251 2/3/22
    4 Nvidia -228 1/7/25
    5 Nvidia -212 4/19/24
    6 Nvidia -208 6/24/24
    7 Amazon -206 4/29/22
    8 Nvidia -205 7/17/24
    9 Nvidia -205 7/24/24
    10 Nvidia -197 8/29/24
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    Will DeepSeek be the pin to the bubble?
    Stay tuned.
    YBB,
    Necessity is the mother of invention. US companies have lost their minds with unlimited access to capital and Nvidia chips. So, they did not have to be disciplined. A $500B joke!
    Corporate America is always trying to out grift American politicians. Both these cast of characters have conditioned us not to question their motives until conditions become extreme.
    Jensen Haung knew today is coming, based on his behavior over the past few weeks. But all my cousins in Tech keep drinking the cool aid.
    Today is too soon for me to buy any American company.
  • Any thoughts as to why VPU is off so much this morning?
    QQQ down less than 3% at the moment. VPU down considerably more at -4%.
    NSRGY popped 4% today (partially due to strength in the Swiss franc). But I gave up on it some time ago. I’m not cut out for that kind of volatility / wait time.
    @Mark - I like the way you think. I’d be inclined to add to VPU myself if I owned it and had much cash on the sideline (I don’t).
    @bee’s link is informative. Appears the new AI app requires much less electricity to operate.
    I’m watching ”real asset” funds. Most off over 1% this morning. But holdings can vary a lot.
    The one I own (an OEF) is 45% in real estate which seems to be holding up reasonably well.
  • Any thoughts as to why VPU is off so much this morning?
    News of DeepSeek rattling Utilities' AI opportunities
    CEG (-18%) and VST (-24%) down double digits @ 11AM EST
    technology/artificial-intelligence/what-is-deepseek-why-is-it-disrupting-ai-sector
  • Inflation watch- Your Coffee just went up (then down) by 50%

    FOTUS* launched and then stopped a trade war between the 3rd and 10th holes on his golf course yesterday. Because after 5 days, baby needed some 'me' time and stirring up pointless global drama is his favorite oligarchic pasttime.
    * Felon Of The United States
  • Inflation watch- Your Coffee just went up (then down) by 50%
    spent $900K/immigrant of my taxpayer money. i expect this to triple as inexperienced private MAGA companies decide this is easier than building a fake wall and join the grift .
    where's DOGE? i guess vivek was deported as suspicious.
    https://www.themirror.com/news/us-news/trumps-first-deportation-flights-average-931578
  • How to Pay Next-to-Nothing in Taxes During Retirement
    Thanks. I am familiar with direct indexing, and in fact have spoken with Fidelity about it. (New rep assigned to us; I figured I'd let him go through Fidelity's various wealth management product permutations with us.)
    The Barron's piece you linked to requires a subscription to read (I read Barron's online through my library). However, here's another article that Allan Roth wrote that for ETF.com (via Yahoo), supporting what I might have also said:
    - For limited purposes (such as tax loss harvesting, minor portfolio customizations) direct indexing may provide benefits that exceed their higher cost
    - For general index investing, net long term benefits are slim to none
    On the first point, direct indexing is oriented toward mechanical tax loss harvesting. Customization is limited (you can exclude a small number of stocks from your "index"). Of note is that Fidelity offers most of its direct indexing strategies only in taxable accounts (i.e. aside from the tax loss harvesting, these vehicles are not competitive).
    https://digital.fidelity.com/prgw/digital/msw/overview/a
    Adding more flexibility comes at much higher min asset levels and with higher fees. These more flexible (active) accounts are not targeted at investors in the 0% cap gains bracket.
    More generally, Allan Roth wrote:
    About Those Taxes ...
    But is direct indexing better than ETFs? Generally they are not, in my view, at least not compared to the best ETFs.
    ...
    Typically after a few years, the tax benefit is minimal, and all that is left are fees and complexities. The 1099 tax form on my little $5,000 direct indexing experiment is 86 pages!
     https://finance.yahoo.com/news/allan-roth-direct-indexing-better-160000280.html
    I'm not one easily spooked by lengthy statements (especially when computers deal with most of this gibberish), but even I have my limits!
    Here's M*'s take, which is similar (i.e. minor positive sentiment)
    https://mp.morningstar.com/en-us/articles/blt5e360f590235f987/direct-indexing-vs-etfs-myth-busting
  • How to Pay Next-to-Nothing in Taxes During Retirement
    Interesting exit strategies from the Fido article linked by @bee when one has high unrealized gains. Link may need subscription.
    Option 1: Donate to charity or a donor-advised fund (DAFs have more flexibility)
    Option 2: Hold until death (Step-up, but you must die first)
    Option 3: Hold until retirement (hoping for lower tax bracket that may not be)
    Option 4: In the future, you may be able to convert this SMA to a new lower cost etf (351-Exchange ETFs)
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    DeepSeek
    If the results from DeepSeek are as impressive as Nadella/MSFT and others say, then the mixture-of-experts (MoE) for AI training will soon be adopted by other AI models. But it will change the nature of the AI race - from throwing $billions to using specialized approaches.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/27/nvidia-falls-10percent-in-premarket-trading-as-chinas-deepseek-triggers-global-tech-sell-off.html
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixture_of_experts
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepSeek
  • "Experts" Forecast Stock and Bond Returns: 2025 Edition
    Thanks, @stillers. Sounds prudent.
    I don't plan on adjusting my PRWCX holding, if you were wondering, BaluBalu....in fact I made my annual 10K contribution to it late last month.
    Not just PRWCX but equity allocation overall from 2024 peak equity allocation.
    David G already reduced equity allocation to 55%. Moving PRWCX to cash or bonds would reduce equity allocation even more.
    First half of last year, I sold PRWCX to increase equity allocation which turned out to be a bad idea because of the choice of investment I made - underperformed PRWCX in a bull market. I am going to unwind that move and send that money back to PRWCX.
    I had also sold some PRWCX to increase PHEFX. I already unwound that move, even though it was profitable because I will eventually move the entire PHEFX position into its ETF clone when launched to move it from IRA to taxable account.
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    I thought David Giroux is the gold standard and now that it is revealed he has a SPY target of 5,300 for end of 2025, we move on to someone else who will vouch for what we want.
    Too many posters in this forum have become propagandists / activists and as with all those in that elk they never change their opinion / ways, evidence or context be damned, rather they are in constant pursuit of confirmation of information to suit their propaganda.
    In terms of their impact, these posters are no different from those that bang my front door hard (not withstanding there is a calling bell switch right next to the door handle) to tell me their version of God (and Jesus). Last night, an 18 yr old kid did that and I asked him why it was necessary to be so impolite and inconvenience others to bang the door? He said with a straight face that he was trying to get our attention to God and Jesus. No sorry or remorse. People have lost their minds so much they no longer see or hear others as human beings. Last night, that kid reminded me of some posters in this forum.