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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • New highs and all I read are negative articles
    Maybe Ted can post all the links of the myriad of negative stock market articles I have been reading this morning. You would expect to see ebullience with a market at all times highs and a market on track for its best June since 1955. But I sure am not seeing much ebullience out there. In fact, can’t ever recall so much apprehension of a market at all time highs.
    I can understand the trepidation. The biggest bullish peg is the Fed but how is that not already priced into the market. Plus, what if the markets keep roaring ahead? Would the Fed even lower rates with markets making one new high after another? There is hope for something positive next week on China but what if that once again proves to be much ado about nothing. And then what about Iran? The only positives I see is the junk bond market and price itself. But price and junk bonds can turn on a dime or better yet, an unexpected tweet out of the blue. In the meantime enjoy the ride - as long or short as it may be.
    Edit. Just about every category of bonds are obscenely overpriced in the short term based on their 10 day RSI. And this morning for the first time in many a moon seeing selling throughout all the sectors in Bondland.
  • VWINX
    Couple weeks ago I posted a link at VG that let’s you enter a symbol from another fund complex and thereby learn what VG considers their closest match. Works opposite of what you’re trying to do. But may be of some help in verifying that the fund(s) you’re considering is considered similar to VWINX in VG’s eyes.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/50424/interesting-fund-cross-reference-tool-from-vanguard
    Tend to agree with the suggestion above to go with the “real deal.” I suspect VWINX isn’t an easy one to duplicate. On the other hand, if, like me, you’re accustomed to working directly with just one or a small handful of houses, I can understand why you might not want to move to VG.
    At a glance VWINX appears to be 40/60 fund (heavier on the fixed-income side). One I like at Price that’s
    a well run 40/60 fund is TRRIX. But it lags VWINX performance wise (by about 2 percentage points over 10 years). Hard to beat VG’s low ER. That’s often the difference between a very good fund and a great one,
  • DSENX FUND
    BTW, @davidmoran, HNASX is TRP Institutional Large Cap Growth dressed up as Homestead Growth with .86% ER and only $500 to open a position.
  • DSENX FUND
    I buy DSENX and then convert asap to DSEEX, which Fidelity now does promptly (always done for free). A reclassification worth knowing about there. Merrill does not offer.
    In order to provide the service of a tax-free, fee-free exchange of shares, a brokerage would have to offer two different share classes of the same fund. Obviously Merrill can't do this with the Doubleline Shiller Enhanced CAPE Fund, as Merrill sells only one share class of the fund to retail DIY investors.
    Are you saying that Merrill won't exchange share classes for funds where it does offer multiple classes, or just that it won't exchange DSENX with DSEEX (which it doesn't sell)? Have you tried asking them to exchange between two share classes that they do carry?
    For example, will Merrill do a free exchange from $50K worth of MWHYX shares to MWHIX shares (which it sells so long as you meet a $50K min)?
  • DSENX FUND
    No, not international at all, but LV; buys and sells monthly within the SP500 according to rules involving valuations.

    Oh sorry, for some reason I saw the letters and thought of the European version. I must be getting old. Hell, I've owned DSENX for years now.
    In that case, plain old LV is how I classify it.
    haha, figured that might be the case
    sold out of DLEUX today, finally above my breakeven
  • DSENX FUND
    I just placed a trial buy for the minimum in my Fidelity Roth and it shows a $50 TF if I click go.
    Buy DSENX, ntf
  • DSENX FUND
    Not in my Fidelity Roth IRA, so far as I can see anyway, and a $50 TF as well.
    How many years since you opened your position in DSENX?
    At a savings of 0.25%/year, in four years one would make up the TF on a $5K initial investment. Less time on a larger investment. Each additional investment could be made at a cost of $5/buy. So if one were adding $2000 at a time, one would break even in a year.
    Clearly not useful for traders. But for people investing for the long term (or at least keeping a long term toe hold in a fund), cheaper institutional shares (for this fund or any other) can certainly be worth the entrance fee.
  • VWINX
    I did a search for any funds with better 3, 5, and 10 year performance and lower volatility (as measured by three year std deviation).
    An oddball fund that has superior performance and similarly low volatility (though not quite as low) is FRIFX.
    No fund beat VWINX on all four metrics (three lengths of performance periods and volatility). But if I relax this a bit by allowing a bit higher volatility if it is more than outweighed by its superior performance (i.e. better three year sharpe ratio), then many funds pop out. They include funds such as:
    VTMFX (a peer of VWINX; virtually identical Sharpe ratio with higher performance and volatility due to its 50/50 mix vs. Wellesley's 40/60 mix)
    PRWCX (moving toward more equity and more volatility; 20% better Sharpe ratio in exchange)
    VWELX (again, more equity and volatility; virtually identical Sharpe ratio to VWINX)
    Several convertibles funds offer a similar increase in equity "feel", commensurate increase in volatility, and improved Sharpe ratio. PACIX may be the most accessible (open, load-waved through some brokerages).
    Moving into pure equity, volatility continues to increase. Still, many large cap blend funds combine (relatively) low volatility and high performance to offer comparable risk adjusted return (sharpe ratio). But even the lowest volatility funds in this group are significantly more volatile than VWINX, and their risk-adjusted returns aren't much better. To get significantly risk-adjusted returns here, you have to take on even more risk (i.e. move beyond the low risk equity funds). See, e.g. PRBLX.
    Few large cap value funds offer superior risk adjusted returns. Of note are the Yackman funds (YACKX, YAFFX) with volatility not much greater than VWELX.
    It's the rare (relatively) low risk large cap growth fund that offers even comparable risk adjusted return. One that stands out here is CSIEX.
    As one moves to mid and smaller cap funds, risk tends to go up, and it becomes harder to justify it with better performance if risk is a paramount concern.
  • DSENX FUND
    I just placed a trial buy for the minimum in my Fidelity Roth and it shows a $50 TF if I click go.
  • DSENX FUND
    No, not international at all, but LV; buys and sells monthly within the SP500 according to rules involving valuations.
    Oh sorry, for some reason I saw the letters and thought of the European version. I must be getting old. Hell, I've owned DSENX for years now.
    In that case, plain old LV is how I classify it.
  • DSENX FUND
    Not in my Fidelity Roth IRA, so far as I can see anyway, and a $50 TF as well.
    Will doublecheck in a few days when I have new cash to deploy; it is more reliable to attempt a transaction than go by their footnotes.
  • DSENX FUND

    Do a search here, several have analyzed it thoroughly, and its own writeups are clear enough, at least on the surface. Buy the cheaper DSEEX if you can put in >$100k.
    $5K min for IRAs at Fidelity and Vanguard (mouse over min for IRA min), probably at some other brokerages as well.
  • Junk bonds at all time highs - S@P next?
    I love
    Yesterday a slew of junk bond funds closed at all time highs on a total return basis. The proxy index for junk bonds closed at 1343.59 vs its May 1 all time high of 1344.07. Prior to that May 1 top, junk bonds had been making all times highs on a seemingly daily basis since mid February. Unless there is some reversal in today’s trading (anything is possible) the junk bond index will also close at all time highs.. How can this be? If you read the commentary below you will read that the macro and micro economic data continues to deteriorate.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-big-wall-street-bear-warns-his-bleak-scenario-for-2019-is-taking-shape-2019-06-10
    New highs in the S@P today. So now what? Place your bets. The bears would argue many of the other indexes are still below their highs of January 2018 and this is a bull trap. I believe Jeff Gundlach is in that camp who continues to postulate “this is a bear market. The bulls would argue we are breaking out of a triple top in the S@P and it will be a swift move upwards from here. They would also argue there is a lot of bearish sentiment and underinvested investors out there for a market making news highs. In the meantime, today will be yet another new all time high in the junk bond market.
  • DSENX FUND
    No, not international at all, but LV; buys and sells monthly within the SP500 according to rules involving valuations.
    Do a search here, several have analyzed it thoroughly, and its own writeups are clear enough, at least on the surface. Buy the cheaper DSEEX if you can put in >$100k.
    I myself own it; it's now my sole equity holding, and almost 3/4 of our total.
    The 'need' is that it steadily outperforms.
  • M*: 3 Top World-Stock Funds: Text & Video Presentation
    Ditto my recent comments about M* being enthralled with certain value shops. I have no problem with them endorsing Vanguard Global Equity, but Oakmark Global and Causeway Global Value rank in the bottom 15% of similar funds for the five-year period. Somehow Russ Kinnel finds a way to crown Oakmark's managers as star stock pickers despite their mediocre records. Why do I subscribe any more?
  • Fund Manager Survey: Highest Level of Bearishness Since Financial Crisis
    They've all said this for years.
    Mario Gabelli says trade deal priced in 'to a degree' but he sees a lot of interesting 'nuggets' in market. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mario-gabelli-says-trade-deal-000532587.html
    Just for you jojo. I assume you’re familiar with ever bullish Gabelli? But more to the point, the article I linked initially points out that there was a flip-flop in sentiment from May to June. In other words, the majority of fund managers surveyed in May reported being overweight equities (vs the June underweight reported.)
    I’d agree with jojo that this probably isn’t a big deal. Sentiment comes and goes. As Junkster points out it’s market performance that matters - not sentiment.
  • Dividend Stocks, Hot This Year, May Get Even Hotter Thanks To The Federal Reserve
    Cintas (CTAS, $191.55) is perhaps best-known for providing corporate uniforms, but the company also offers maintenance supplies, tile, and carpet cleaning services and even compliance training. As such, it’s seen by some investors as a bet on jobs growth.
    There may be something to that. Shares have more than tripled over the past five years vs. a gain of just 51% for the S&P 500. In January, the economy notched its 100th consecutive month of employment gains. Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims stand at levels last seen in 1969.
    Regardless of how the labor market is doing, Cintas is a stalwart as a dividend payer. The company has raised its payout every year since going public in 1983. Most recently, in October, Cintas raised its annual dividend by 26.5% to $2.05 a share.
  • Here Comes A New $160 Billion Asset Manager: Sun Life
    FYI: Insurer Sun Life Financial has created an independent business, bringing together its affiliated asset management firms and the investment capabilities of its general account under a new brand called SLC Management.
    This launch caps off six years of work. In 2012, Sun Life started building an asset management business to offer outside clients the strategies it uses for its own portfolio, such as commercial mortgages, liability-driven investing, and real estate.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1fx5y3rzwtmp2/Here-Comes-a-New-160-Billion-Asset-Manager
  • M*: 3 Top World-Stock Funds: Text & Video Presentation
    FYI: World-stock funds are incredibly flexible. They can invest in the best companies in the world regardless of where they are based. Joining me to share some favorite world stock actively managed mutual funds is Russ Kinnel. He is Morningstar's director of manager research.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.morningstar.com/videos/933335/3-top-worldstock-funds.html
  • Which Annuities Offer The Best Inflation Protection?
    Averages are just that, averages. Some prices go up more than average, some less.
    I believe the two fastest growing costs are health care and education. While health care tends to hit older people disproportionately hard, education costs tend to bypass seniors. In San Francisco, while the cash fare for a MUNI ride is about to go up from $1.35 to $1.50 for seniors, the Clipper card fare will remain the same $1.25 that it was in 2017.
    https://www.sfmta.com/sites/default/files/reports-and-documents/2018/08/fiscal_year_2019_and_2020_fare_table_2018_0802.pdf
    Not to mention that the value of that fare was recently (Sept. 2018) increased. A single fare now gets you a transfer good for two hours instead of 90 minutes. This allows "customers the ability to complete round-trips for shorter errands, such as medical appointments, shopping or dining". As someone who still games these systems (and keeps a Clipper card on hand for trips to the Bay Area), I appreciate that.
    https://www.sfmta.com/blog/fare-time-limits-increase-two-hours-and-new-cheaper-all-day-passes-way
    Consumers tend to notice the prices that jump while downplaying the prices that remain relatively stable. Similar to investors feeling worse about their investments going down by 10% than they feel good about their investments going up by 10%.