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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • A look ahead for the overnight potentials in the markets......
    (link)
    E-mini futures on the S&P 500 Index sank 5% to 2,819 as of 8:05 p.m. in New York. After briefly rallying, they slipped back to the limit-down level and held there about two hours later. The curb means the contract can’t trade at a lower price for the remainder of the overnight session, although transactions at or above the threshold are allowed.
    Speaking to how things could get worse when Wall Street opens, Japanese equity benchmarks slid more than 6%, and futures on the U.K. FTSE 100 fell more than 7%.
  • SP-500 futures halted Sunday evening, after triggering down-limit circuit breaker rules
    The article below is fairly well written for a description of how the current rules function and the connection to last Friday's market activity. My recall is that the limits rules were changed or established after the October, 1987 "quick melt".
    ARTICLE
  • Got oil ??? Saudis plan all out price war with output increase

    Oil Prices Plunge 30% After Saudi Arabia Stuns World With Massive Discounts
    NPR is currently reporting that:
    Oil prices were in freefall on Sunday after Saudi Arabia announced a stunning discount in oil prices — of $6 to $8 per barrel — to its customers in Asia, the United States and Europe. Benchmark Brent crude oil futures dove 30% in early trading Sunday night before recovering somewhat to a drop of 22%.
    Saudi Arabia, the world's second-largest producer, this weekend also said it will actually boost oil production instead of cutting it to stem falling prices, in a stunning reversal in policy from just two days ago.
    U.S. consumers are likely to see lower prices at the gas pump, but American oil producers — who lead the world in output — could be hurt by the oil price slide.
    Economies from China to Italy have ground to a halt as quarantines shut down factories and demand for products and services craters.
    Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members sought to cut production to shore up oil prices. But the once-powerful cartel can no longer move markets alone. It needs the support of Russia, which is not an OPEC member but has recently been coordinating with the organization. Yet Russia has resisted calls for production cuts. On Friday, the talks ended in failure.
    Now, Saudi Arabia is doing an about face. If it can't get the price back up, it's going to drive the price way down. It's offering to cut the oil price for the U.S. market by $7 per barrel, to Europe by $8 and Asia by $6. Paired with Saudi Arabia's ability to rapidly increase production — flooding the market with cheap crude — those unilateral price cuts will push the price of oil down for everyone.
    And even with ample supply and low production costs, Saudi Arabia is not guaranteed to come out on top in a prolonged face-off with Russia – especially if fears of a pandemic keep planes grounded and cars in driveways no matter how cheap crude oil gets.
    This abridged news report was selected and edited for brevity.
  • Got oil ??? Saudis plan all out price war with output increase

    Just posted in the overnight-potentials thread....

    Futures opening down 3-4-5% based on variety of factors, from COVID-19 to the failed OPEC talks. Crude futures are down 30%, the largest one day drop since the 1991 Gulf War.
    Monday trading will probably be a global bloodbath.
  • A look ahead for the overnight potentials in the markets......

    Futures opening down 3-4-5% based on variety of factors, from COVID-19 to the failed OPEC talks. Crude futures are down 30%, the largest one day drop since the 1991 Gulf War.
    Monday trading will probably be a global bloodbath.
  • Retirement and fund house choices
    With respect to Schwab MMF, we are currently using Schwab California Municipal Money Fund – Investor shares (SWKXX), currently yielding 0.8%, (1.74% taxable equivalent).
  • APPLX - Distressing Drop
    Best way to figure this out is to look at its holdings and how they've performed. You can see their performance at the bottom of the page in the third to last column--"1-year Return"-- here:https://morningstar.com/funds/xnas/applx/portfolio
    This is the problem with concentrated funds I've mentioned in other posts--too much idiosyncratic stock specific risks. One or two blowups and you really suffer. Weibo, China Mobile, The Mosaic Company and Spirit Airlines are the primary culprits here. I imagine the China and travel-related exposure hasn't helped in a coronavirus environment.
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    Sunday, March 8, 2020
    Barring the possibility of an intergalactic species/craft which visits planet Earth, and creates a healing golden orb surrounding the planet; which in turn results in a eradication of COVID.....well, if this does not happen; then I can not find otherwise but to expect disruption at many levels to continue.
    I'll blip a few things as a thought arises, and then let this thread become whatever.....
    --- The investment side: The Fed. and other central banks have already played round 1 on the monetary side, for any number of reasons; based upon their thinking to attempt to protect the investment markets and other.
    Next, FISCAL policy. The President, et al; which includes most Republicans (my opinion) may be forced to become "socialists". The farmers bailout is already at this status, however; I see the following possibilities:
    --- another reduced taxes plan
    --- monetary back stop for some industries with large losses
    --- income replacement for those out of work for "x" period of time
    --- mail a U.S. Treasury check to every U.S. household.....$2,000, non-taxable at any government level
    All the other, the what IF:
    --- consider everything one uses in a given week in your area, what if; 25% of the stores, gas stations, etc. are closed
    --- the services you seldom use in a community, but now have 25% of the staff or facilities closed/quarantined, being; first responders (paramedics, fire, police), walk-in clinics; services, electrician, plumber, etc....add to your list
    ---employment, the majority of large gatherings being void people. Sporting events, localities that rely on tourism...add to your list. The ramifications in these areas becomes the large numbers of folks who have their income attached to these businesses.
    For the D.C. scene, well; you may be draw you own conclusions about effective leadership.
    Trump, "I know so much about corona virus.....
    Mike Pence stated that, "..... announced that 21 people on a cruise ship being held off San Francisco had tested positive for coronavirus. He also urged older Americans to “use caution” in planning any cruise ship vacation."
    NO S^*T ??? Well, one may guess that there are "x" number of Americans who don't know that a cruise ship vacation is not the way to go, at this time.
    Okay, I'm tired of writing and thinking about this; and you're probably tired of reading what I've written.
    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch
  • VLAAX
    @FD1000; Rechecked or as Rodgers says Discount double check ! NO $100k or transaction fee at Chucks place.
    Derf
  • An Investor’s Guide to Income Funds (investing 101 refresher)
    Thanks @FD1000: It is nice to have a fixed income person on the board. Your comments are much appreciated. Old_Skeet
  • An Investor’s Guide to Income Funds (investing 101 refresher)
    As usual, they hardly ever discuss one of the best options...Multi sector bond funds.
    The following are paying over 4% SEMMX,JMSIX,IOFIX,VCFAX,
    FI CEFs such as PCI pay over 8% with better performance than SPY and others + volatility=SD is better too.
    MLP? no thanks.
    See a (chart) of SPY,MLPA,PCI
  • VLAAX
    If I want to buy a fund I just do it at Schwab (I have a small account at Fidelity too) and if it's not there I don't buy. I can buy VLAAX or VLAIX at $100K min + $49.95 (which I usually don't pay) and then I can add or switch to another fund.
    For years PRWCX(closed) was my number one allocation choice but VLAIX looks better now and available.
  • Got oil ??? Saudis plan all out price war with output increase
    @johnN I messed up with FSENX. Well, you can say I messed up with bunch of Fido Select funds. However, I promised myself I'm not going panic for 10 years. We'll see what happens 2030.
  • Retirement and fund house choices
    fido not so much, depending on your definition of skimp
    I had debated about mentioning that Fidelity's MMFs pay more, but since their top rate for sub $1M min MMFs is just 8 basis points above Schwab's, I didn't feel it was worth going into the numbers. Still, here we go ...
    Fidelity's retail-ish MMFs
    Schwab's position MMFs (ignore the Ultra class shares with their $1M min)
    In contrast, Vanguard Prime MMF is paying 23 basis points above Schwab's, just 3 basis points below Ally Bank's online account that yields 1.60%. VMMXX's min is just $3K.
    Vanguard MMFs
    For better yields on cash one needs to look to bank accounts. But it may not be so easy to move IRA cash back and forth between a bank and a brokerage. OTOH, I've been able to move IRA cash between Merrill Edge and Fidelity within a couple of days, so maybe if you've got significant cash in an IRA it's worth looking into how easy IRA bank transfers are.
    A number of the "major" online banks are currently yielding 1.70% (Synchrony, Marcus, Amex, ...), and others are higher. Brokerage rates 15% - 20% below this do seem somewhat skimpy to me.
    Online bank rates https://www.bankrate.com/banking/savings/rates/
  • An Investor’s Guide to Income Funds (investing 101 refresher)
    https://smartasset.com/financial-advisor/income-fund
    An Investor’s Guide to Income Funds
    Investing in the stock market involves two main objectives: growth and income. Growth investments can increase in value over time. Income investments can put money into your pocket consistently. An income fund is one way to cash in on the benefits of income investing in a simplified way.
    Treasury
    Municipal bonds
    Corporate bonds
    Junk bonds
    International bonds
    Income funds can serve a distinct purpose inside a portfolio. As a result, there are several good reasons to include them as part of your retirement strategy. Take time to research different income funds. That can help you decide which of those funds may best meet your investment goals.
  • Intermediate Term Core/Core Plus Bond Funds
    I have been looking at a few Intermediate-Term bond funds and am having a problem differentiating between two Baird funds. One is Baird Aggregate Bond Institutional BAGIX and the other Baird Core Plus Bond Institutional BCOIX. Both look good. Any assistance with the differences would be appreciated.
    On the related, I have also been looking at Vanguard Core Bond Institutional VCOBX. It looks like a reasonably good Intermediate-Term bond fund with a low 0.10% ER. Any opinions?
    Any thoughts/recommendations for an Intermediate-Term Core/Core Plus Bond Fund would be great.
    Mona
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Hi @johnN, Thanks for your question. And, @Crash here is another update. Your comments are always appreciated.
    John, for me, I bought when the Index was down 8% (pullback range) and again at minus 13% (correction range). My next buy will be made should the Index fall into a downdraft which would be a decline of 15% to 20%. Since, I am retired and in the distribution phase of investing along with being mostly fully allocated on the equity side of my portfolio, within my asset allocation ranges, does not leave a lot of room for me to become a big buyer of equities. However, this stock market decline has created an open to buy on the equity side of my portfolio. With this, when an open to buy takes place on the equity side of my portfolio I have been buying equity income type funds in baby steps as noted above in my opening comment. In this way, I will get paid dividends while I await equity valuations to rebound.
    Currently, I'm favoring equity income over fixed income and staying within my asset allocation guardrails of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity. In general, my rebalance threshold is + (or -) 2% from my neutral positions while allowing cash to float. This past Friday's portfolio review had me at 20% cash, 41% income and 39% equity. With this, I've now got a small open to buy on the equity side of my portfolio. In addition, should I choose, I can overweight equities by up to 5%; but ... for now ... I'm a long way from doing that.
    I'm also thinking no bell is going to ring to tell investors it's now time to buy equities as each of us have different circumstances, risk tolerances and objectives that should be factored in with our buying decisions. I'm posting what I am doing as I can not say what might be right for another investor. Again, for me, when I have an open to buy within my asset allocation and my barometer has a high reading North of 160 then ... that's, for me, an equity buying opportunity.
    Old_Skeet
  • Investing 101-how stocks pay dividends
    https://theentrepreneurfund.com/mutual-funds-how-they-pay-dividends/
    Investing 101-how stocks pay dividends
    There are actually hundreds of mutual funds on the market to select from, and most share the fundamental traits which have made them a well-liked funding possibility: Among them are liquidity, diversification, administration. But just some mutual funds carry one other potential profit, which is a excessive dividend yield. Here, we check out how such mutual funds generate and distribute dividends to buyers.