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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Anyone buying or selling at these levels?
    Buying/selling at these levels? Not much, still ~ 40% cash & stable value, but nibbling at three relatively attractively priced cef's of various portfolios and pedigrees (PTY, DBL, FPF) and one etf (PCY), plus adding a little to core-ish bonds since the 10yT trading range has stabilized. None of the recent buys really affects the overall portfolio, which is in very conservative territory since late May-early June.
  • Anyone buying or selling at these levels?
    I haven't backed up the truck with GILD shares, although I did purchase some more shares last Thursday.
    Basically, you have a situation - even more than Apple (and Gilead has often been called the "Apple of Biotech") where the market is demanding to know more about what the next five years looks like.
    Look at Celgene, which has really kind of spelled out what the next 5 years look like, complete with projections and a number of recent purchases/partnerships. Celgene is trading at nearly a 50 p/e.
    Gilead, which has really not spelled out what the next 5 years looks like, is trading with about a 13-14 p/e and has just had two quarters where the analyst estimates weren't even close to the beat that the company delivered.
    If Gilead makes a "transformative" purchase (and their two major purchases have resulted in enormous success) or even a series of small purchases then would it stand to reason that Gilead should deserve to trade at a higher multiple? I think so. Is Gilead undervalued at present time? I think so, too. The market/valuation is acting like there isn't any pipeline at all and is basically ignoring growth internationally. The company has nearly $15B in cash.
    The company is certainly not without risk, but it has taken in a lot of cash and management should have - at this point - proven themselves quite capable, given their track record. With the valuation where it is, I'm not buying anymore than the already large position, but I do feel very comfortable holding it and that there is a margin of safety with the valuation where it is. The dividend helps, as well.
    I'm not expecting Gilead to repeat its past performance. I simply see what I believe to be a very undervalued stock that I think could do very well over time (and potentially grow the dividend.) I think it's gone from a volatile biotech to something that looks and feels more like a buy-and-hold stock.
  • Anyone buying or selling at these levels?
    Now GILD's price targets are predictably being raised:
    S&P CAPITAL IQ REITERATES
    STRONG BUY OPINION ON
    SHARES OF GILEAD SCIENCES
    Recent Price: $113.07
    Recommendation:
    FIVE STAR BUY [Highest Rating]
    We raise our 12-month target $12 to $155 on below peers 13.9X our revised 2015 EPS estimate of
    $11.15, up $0.95. Q2 EPS of $3.15 vs. $2.36 is $0.65 ahead of our est. Sales, driven by a robust $4.9B
    in Sovaldi/Harvoni hepatitis C (HCV) sales, rose 26%. We see GILD maintaining dominant 90%+
    HCV market share in the U.S., but we see new HCV patients moderating in H2 from significant
    uptake in Q1 and some payer restrictions. We see solid growth in Europe, including France where
    price negotiations just finished and we see large Japan opportunity, which approved Harvoni in
    July.
    Jeffrey Loo, CFA
    07/28/2015 17:56:55
  • Anyone buying or selling at these levels?
    Patience in GILD will be rewarded as it's a monster...
    Yeah - it's not without risk, but yet another giant quarter and the thing still trades at a single digit forward p/e.
    http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2015/07/28/gilead-sciences-big-beat-big-gain/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
    Shares of Gilead Sciences (GILD) are up after the biotech giant easily topped earnings and revenue forecasts.
    Evercore ISI’s Mark Schoenbaum says “Gilead just put up what appears to be an awesome quarter.” He continues:
    And they raised revenue guidance to where Street already is. Expenses came in lower, and they lowered R&D guidance for the year (this company tends to be conservative, so for them to raise revenue guidance this early in the year speaks volumes).
  • Anyone buying or selling at these levels?
    I'm watching Gilead... maybe at 105?
    Gilead Sciences earnings: $3.15 a share, vs $2.71 a share expected
    http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/28/gilead-sciences-earnings-.html
    Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $3.15 per share, $0.44 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $2.71; revenues rose 25.8% year/year to $8.22 bln vs the $7.59 bln consensus. Also raises guidance for FY15 product sales.
  • For Investment Nerds Only Report
    A few months old? It's 115 years old (since 1900) :-)
    Don't know what use to make of it, but you're right that it looks like a fun read. A very brief skim turned up the fact that the US and France are the most diversified nations (by sectors), and that the Vice Fund did very nicely. I'm wondering what Morocco's sole industry is (phosphates?)
  • Worst year since 2008?
    Did you answer this? I missed it.
    >> I am in no mood for ... even a 1.5% or 2% decline.
    So how do you equity-invest at all if you do not ever want to see a 1.5% decline ?
    That's a 1.5% to 2% decline in my total account balance. So I keep no more than 5% to 10% of overall capital in equities. I am primarily a bond fund trader and there you can control your drawdown much more than individual equities.
  • Worst year since 2008?
    Did you answer this? I missed it.
    >> I am in no mood for ... even a 1.5% or 2% decline.
    So how do you equity-invest at all if you do not ever want to see a 1.5% decline ?
  • For Investment Nerds Only Report
    For those of us fascinated by taking a long-term view of markets and enjoy crunching numbers, this report has a lot of great info:https://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/?fileID=AE924F44-E396-A4E5-11E63B09CFE37CCB
    In some cases return numbers in the report go back to the year 1900. I'm not sure if anyone posted it before as it is a few months old, so I apologize if it is redundant.
  • Guardian: Daniel Kahneman [Thinking Fast & Slow] - Interview on Overconfidence, Noise & Life
    UK's 18 JUL 2015 The Guardian contains an excellent and fascinating interview with Daniel Kahneman by David Shariatmadari.
    LINK http://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/jul/18/daniel-kahneman-books-interview
    [Daniel Kahneman] with his long-time collaborator Amos Tversky, who died in 1996, delineated the biases that warp our judgment, from figuring out if we can trust a prospective babysitter to buying and selling shares. In 2002 he was awarded the Nobel prize in economics, a testament to the boundary-busting nature of his research...
    The next problem on his list is “noise”, or random variability: the fact that different people in the same situation make very different judgments. Random error is a very different phenomenon from the systematic biases he’s been studying for several decades. It’s the kind of error you can’t reliably predict.
  • Worst year since 2008?
    Hi @Junkster
    Not unlike any investor, I/we don't like to give back any money.
    Had a decent YTD as of last Saturday. That value is taking a bit of a beating since last Friday. But, money (rates/bonds) is still very cheap for borrowing and I feel some equity areas will still be the areas into which the money will continue to run. We don't have any direct exposure, at this time; to Asia area. China.....well, not sure how to gauge that market; as how does one know what is real and what is government support? A whole different form of government QE! So, with fingers crossed; we will remain with the following for today.......
    Pretty much a full rotation from 3 years ago for percentages for our portfolio. Broad U.S. equity is so-so, eh?; U.S. real estate is improving, but rough YTD and bonds mostly flat YTD. The support for our portfolio currently, has been from healthcare and Europe.
    Below is our current mix.
    ---68% equity
    ---22% bonds
    Of the equity mix: 42% is health related equity, 25% is blend caps U.S., 20% international and 13% U.S. real estate.
    Equity funds:
    HEDJ (Wisdomtree hedged Europe, a lot GB, Germany, France and a bet on a continued weakening Euro and improving economies)
    FHLC (Fid. health etf)
    FSPHX (Fid. select health)
    PRHSX (TR Price health)
    VIIIX (Vanguard Total U.S. index)
    ITOT (I-shares, U.S. market)
    GPROX (Granduer Peak)
    DPRRX (U.S. real estate)
    BRUIX (U.S. real estate)
    FRIFX (U.S. real estate...50/50 equity bonds)
    Bond funds:
    BAGIX (investment grade mostly, similar to Pimco PTTRX)
    DGCIX (Delaware bond, mixed)
    FBNDX (Fid. I.G. bonds)
    Stocks:
    DPLO (IPO purchase last October) 30 year old private speciality pharmacy. I/we were very much aware of the quality of management.
    ABC (AmerisourceBergen-pharma/medical items distribution, now veterinary, too,etc.)
    Reporting from the end of a half sawn investment tree branch and hoping for no big winds to rock the tree.
    Catch
  • Worst year since 2008?
    @junkster:
    Worst since '08? It may turn out to be. Still 5 months to go. But it's certainly a strange year. My best year since '08 was +29% in '09. The subsequent worst was +1.2% in '11. Currently, I'm off -1.5% YTD.
    I've always kept a foot in the Dollar sensitive areas like commodities, NR, international bonds and foreign currencies. Those are dragging me down this year.
    As a benchmark of sorts, I use Price's Balanced Retirement Fund, TRRIX, (formerly Retirement Income). It's a well-mannered well managed fund (generally 40/60) which I think suitable for someone a decade or so into retirement. It's also having a lackluster year, up just 1% YTD.
  • Chuck Jaffe: Trump Fails The Fiscal-Responsibility Test In His Fund Picks
    I sent email to Jaffe; he responded that he's working on a correction for the open end funds.
    I also questioned his statement that all of the Donald's Baron funds had "fee levels" above average. His response was that if you compare the Baron funds against the dollar weighted average of all equity funds, they are indeed all high, including the institutional shares.
    M* says that Baron's EM fund, institutional class BEXIX, has below average expenses. Using Jaffe's metric (0.70%), virtually all actively managed EM funds are pricey, including Vanguard's actively managed EM fund VMMSX. Its ER of 0.96% puts it 1/3 above "average" cost by this metric!
    (I've sent a followup email to Jaffe; I do not expect a response since Barons funds are in general expensive, even if Trump happened to buy a moderately priced one.)
  • Worst year since 2008?
    I am up 4.42% YTD and on track for my worst year since 2008. Not sure that is isolated to me or others are also struggling. I take no solace in the fact my return is higher than many of the market indexes as my goal is to consistently compound my capital and not to shadow or beat any particular market index. I haven't a clue how the rest of the year will unfold. I think China is simply an excuse for an already overall sick market. But as we have seen, at least since 2008, rallies seem to come when the markets have looked the sickest. At my age and financial situation I am in no mood for any drawdown in my total nest egg - even a 1.5% or 2% decline. Then again I was never in the mood for any drawdown, young or old. So all I hold (for the moment) are three very small equity positions in small cap biotech and a bank loan fund. Junk corporates have performed especially poorly lately in part because of the decline in oil prices. On the other hand, junk munis are suddenly looking inviting again.
    Congratulations ! You are doing very well given the current environment. I'm up about 1.5% YTD and that's a fairly conservative portfolio. For junk munis, I do own PRFHX. I also hold ZEOIX which is holding up nicely. My other bond funds are a mixed bag with most hovering around the flatline for YTD.
  • worst investments ever
    My worst investment ever was buying Janus Global Technology around 1997. You know what happened after that...
  • The concept of manager diversification versus the index
    Hi Guys,
    Although I declined MikeM’s offer to participate in his study … his post did encourage me to take a quick look at my income sleeve and see how the respective funds held compared to their standard. I used Morningstar data for the noted time period for $10,000 invested for each fund held within the sleeve. I am not saying that this is a perfect study … but, it did provide some interesting information I thought I’d share with the board.
    FUND ... AMOUNT ... STANDARD ... AMOUNT ... PERIOD
    GIFAX ... $12,575 ... Bank Loan ... $12,050 ... 3 yr
    LALDX ... $15,640 ... Short Term Bond ... $12,720 ... 10 yr
    LBNDX ... $19,295 ... High Yield Bond ... $17,790 ... 10 yr
    NEFZX ... $19,840 ... Multi Sector Bond ... $16,250 ... 10 yr
    THIFX ... $15,625 ... Short Term Bond ... $12,720 ... 10 yr
    TSIAX ... $16,640 ... Multi Sector Bond ... $14,525 ... 5 yr
    Sleeve's Total $99,615 ... Standard's Total $86,055 ... Hypo Amount Invested $60,000
    It appears that all the funds currently held out performed their standard for the period noted and with this the sleeve’s total was greater and out performed the standard’s total.
    I admit, this is a down and dirty quick review and your findings might differ from my findings. It is what it is.
    Old_Skeet
  • Worst year since 2008?
    >> At my age and financial situation I am in no mood for any drawdown in my total nest egg - even a 1.5% or 2% decline.
    How do you invest meaningfully at all?
    Or did you, given your next sentence.
  • Worst year since 2008?
    I am up 4.42% YTD and on track for my worst year since 2008. Not sure that is isolated to me or others are also struggling. I take no solace in the fact my return is higher than many of the market indexes as my goal is to consistently compound my capital and not to shadow or beat any particular market index. I haven't a clue how the rest of the year will unfold. I think China is simply an excuse for an already overall sick market. But as we have seen, at least since 2008, rallies seem to come when the markets have looked the sickest. At my age and financial situation I am in no mood for any drawdown in my total nest egg - even a 1.5% or 2% decline. Then again I was never in the mood for any drawdown, young or old. So all I hold (for the moment) are three very small equity positions in small cap biotech and a bank loan fund. Junk corporates have performed especially poorly lately in part because of the decline in oil prices. On the other hand, junk munis are suddenly looking inviting again.