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Basically, you have a situation - even more than Apple (and Gilead has often been called the "Apple of Biotech") where the market is demanding to know more about what the next five years looks like.I haven't backed up the truck with GILD shares, although I did purchase some more shares last Thursday.
Yeah - it's not without risk, but yet another giant quarter and the thing still trades at a single digit forward p/e.Patience in GILD will be rewarded as it's a monster...
Gilead Sciences earnings: $3.15 a share, vs $2.71 a share expectedI'm watching Gilead... maybe at 105?
That's a 1.5% to 2% decline in my total account balance. So I keep no more than 5% to 10% of overall capital in equities. I am primarily a bond fund trader and there you can control your drawdown much more than individual equities.Did you answer this? I missed it.
>> I am in no mood for ... even a 1.5% or 2% decline.
So how do you equity-invest at all if you do not ever want to see a 1.5% decline ?
[Daniel Kahneman] with his long-time collaborator Amos Tversky, who died in 1996, delineated the biases that warp our judgment, from figuring out if we can trust a prospective babysitter to buying and selling shares. In 2002 he was awarded the Nobel prize in economics, a testament to the boundary-busting nature of his research...
The next problem on his list is “noise”, or random variability: the fact that different people in the same situation make very different judgments. Random error is a very different phenomenon from the systematic biases he’s been studying for several decades. It’s the kind of error you can’t reliably predict.
Congratulations ! You are doing very well given the current environment. I'm up about 1.5% YTD and that's a fairly conservative portfolio. For junk munis, I do own PRFHX. I also hold ZEOIX which is holding up nicely. My other bond funds are a mixed bag with most hovering around the flatline for YTD.I am up 4.42% YTD and on track for my worst year since 2008. Not sure that is isolated to me or others are also struggling. I take no solace in the fact my return is higher than many of the market indexes as my goal is to consistently compound my capital and not to shadow or beat any particular market index. I haven't a clue how the rest of the year will unfold. I think China is simply an excuse for an already overall sick market. But as we have seen, at least since 2008, rallies seem to come when the markets have looked the sickest. At my age and financial situation I am in no mood for any drawdown in my total nest egg - even a 1.5% or 2% decline. Then again I was never in the mood for any drawdown, young or old. So all I hold (for the moment) are three very small equity positions in small cap biotech and a bank loan fund. Junk corporates have performed especially poorly lately in part because of the decline in oil prices. On the other hand, junk munis are suddenly looking inviting again.
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