Slowed growth from tariffs, paired with bigger tax cuts, are likely to push the deficit up by about one-third over the next decade to 8.5% of GDP, Moody's said. The firm changed its outlook on the U.S. to negative in 2023 but has held off on a downgrade, citing the unique strength of the U.S. dollar and Treasury market.

https://morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202503278311/moodys-edges-closer-to-us-downgrade

Hmm, I think we disagree quite a bit on all that.
I think the extreme pessimism is highly warranted and appropriate now and for the next 3 years, 9 months, if he manages to hold the office to term.
We're only three months in and he's already managed to bring markets and economies to the brink of destruction. And he now had Powell in his cross-hairs in an attempt to save his insane fiscal policies.
With all than, AND having endured his 1.0 act, IMO, we are effectively sitting on a ticking time bomb.
capecod, former major league bond trader, CEF savant, and one of the most legendary investment forum posters of all-time, also has a different take. Though he would likely never invest in a CD, he always has regarded (paraphrasing) "meaningful diversification as investment in anything that guarantees a positive total return."
If I scope all taxable bond OEFs available at Fido, I find there are 1802 splattered over 19 pages. If I sort them by "Worst to Best" performance for example 5 years, I find there are 12.5/19 pages that have TRs of LESS than the APY of my 5-yr CD ladder. 3 years, 15.5/19 pages with TRs LESS than.
That ain't "meaningful diversification" to me.
So, to an investor like me, who regards bonds pretty much as a 4-letter word and at one time, a necessary evil, I decided to AVOID dedicated bond funds after their last great crash, except for some small toeholds in 3 low risk finds that I recently bought with stock sale proceeds.
So basically in the past coupla years I exchanged our dedicated bond fund allocation for a 5-yr CD ladder.
I don't have to "hope" (as, IMO, most average bond fund investor do, yourself of course excluded) for annual TRs of 4%-5% from that sleeve. I don't have to "hope' the bond funds I select will be in the minority of dedicated bond funds that outperform my CD ladder. I get 5+% guaranteed, FDIC'd, with Rolex-clocklike interest payments, and full return of my principal at maturity.
And if history at least rhymes, our CD ladder will outperform over time, over 50% of all bond funds available at Fido. Meanwhile, we will, as always, continue to make our real investment money in stocks.
Maybe I misunderstood you, but if not, how is this strategy NOT investing? By definition, we're committing money to earn a financial return.

Observant1, the usual, trash Trump and lots of politics.
The facts: during Trump's first admin: inflation was low, real wages went up.
Biden's admin: highest inflation in 40 years, real suffering among consumers.
The rest is just noise = "It's the economy, stupid"
All politicians lie and exaggerate. Nothing is ever perfect.
The left got extreme and was replaced. Many still can't come to the center.
Biden's admin claimed that the border has been closed for years, and they need more money to handle it. That's a lie you can't ignore.
Trump did it in weeks.
Biden's admin let millions of unvetted illegals come in; thousands were criminals. Trump is cleaning up.
Trump told you what he is going to do: lower taxes, close the border, kick out high-level criminals, and impose tariffs. Eliminating boys playing women's sports. Reducing government/state employees. He is doing it.
Most people understand why Trump is using tariffs and admit the unfair practices. They hate how Trump is doing it. I get it. We tried other tactics, and they didn't work. Give the guy several months, and let's talk. Yes, it is difficult; markets are volatile, and Dems scream murder. What matters is the end result. You start from 30-50-150% tariffs...and you get 10%(and some cases a lot more). That's a win. If you start from 10-15%, you get 2%.
In the past:
Trump asked NATO countries to pay more; they laughed until he told them the US would not support them...and they paid more. That was rude, tough, and unconventional among allies...but it worked.
Putin attacked Ukraine during Obama and Biden, but not Trump.
So, go ahead and scream 3 times daily; the Trump's agenda has been implemented...or...maybe come back to center and join forces with more common sense, as Clinton did.
My main point stands: this thread was a rant about NOTHING.
Lastly, what should you do with your portfolio?
The easy route for most is doing nothing. Invest based on your goals.
I'm a bond trader based on current conditions and did exactly that. No complaints.
BTW, using words like ignorance, pathetic, nazi, crazy tell me a lot about someone.

Hi @sma3. The U.S. bond market is closed, too; for Good Friday. It also closed at 2pm on this Thursday.
AND, for today only (Thursday, April 17); although you've probably already looked. Pretty much down in pricing, higher yields to end this business week. Short duration, TIP and high yield okay today.
--- AGG = -.25% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.06% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = +.04% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEF = -.28% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = +.23% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- TLT = -.88% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- BAGIX = -.31% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- LQD = -.14% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- HYG = +.58% (I Shares High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)

[snip]
Here is another article from 2016(link)
"Donald Trump is a "dangerous, destructive" choice"..."The letter, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, was signed by 370 economists, including eight Nobel Prize winners."
[snip]

The letter referenced in your post appears to be factually accurate.
Many of the issues mentioned by the economists in 2016 are still relevant in 2025.
FD1000 - thank you for bringing this important letter to the group's attention!
Several excerpts were selected below to facilitate the sharing of this vital information.
"He degrades trust in vital public institutions that collect and disseminate information about the economy,
such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, by spreading disinformation about the integrity of their work."
"He uses immigration as a red herring to mislead voters about issues of economic
importance, such as the stagnation of wages for households with low levels of education.
Several forces are responsible for this, but immigration appears to play only a modest
role. Focusing the dialogue on this channel, rather than more substantive channels, such
as automation, diverts the public debate to unproductive policy options."
"He has misled voters in states like Ohio and Michigan by asserting that the renegotiation of NAFTA or the imposition of tariffs on China would substantially increase employment in manufacturing. In fact, manufacturing’s share of employment has been declining since the 1970s and is mostly related to automation, not trade."
"He claims to champion former manufacturing workers, but has no plan to assist their transition to well-compensated service sector positions. Instead, he has diverted the policy discussion to options that ignore both the reality of technological progress and the benefits of international trade."
"He has misled the electorate by asserting that the U.S. is one of the most heavily taxed
countries. While the U.S. has a high top statutory corporate tax rate, the average effective
rate is much lower, and taxes on income and consumption are relatively low. Overall, the
U.S. has one of the lowest ratios of tax revenue to GDP in the OECD."
"His statements reveal a deep ignorance of economics and an inability to listen to credible experts. He repeats fake and misleading economic statistics, and pushes fallacies about the VAT and trade competitiveness."
"He promotes magical thinking and conspiracy theories over sober assessments of feasible economic policy options."

So far we have proved that the dollar fluctuated over the years. It is still higher than 10 years ago.
I love when people quote economists. These people have been wrong countless times, and most of them are liberal-leaning academics.
You don't need to go far and listen to Nobel Prize, Krugman in 2016 (link).
Quote: "“So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. "
Here is another article from 2016(link)
"Donald Trump is a "dangerous, destructive" choice"..."The letter, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, was signed by 370 economists, including eight Nobel Prize winners."
Reality: the economy was great until covid-19 hit. You can see the real wages at
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
BTW, why didn’t these 370 economists criticize Biden for the highest inflation in decades?

+1.

He can't fire him. It's the usual empty Orange Hot Air.

Yes ... but he's trying to backdoor fire him by asking SCOTUS for the ability to fire "independent agency heads" -- you know he'll bend whatever ruling they give him until it breaks, so I wouldn't be so quick to reject the notion.
If it happens (or he tries) it won't just be mutual funds in trouble, that would probably result in another 'Liberation Day' crash of the markets where all correlations go to 1.

Thursday 10-year 4.333% just before the close. (No Friday action. Good Friday Observance.) Also keeping an eye on FX. Euro up to $1.13, GBP $1.32, CDN $1.38 from $1.44 not long ago.
That Frederick Douglass is doing a great job... Isn't he?

P-E might have to settle for smaller pieces now that many of those former 401-k's are sitting at 301-k's or less.

At Stillers … synchrony Bank has a 13 month 4.35% as of a few minutes ago.

Schwab SUTXX broke its long-term gradual 7-day interest decrease today, increasing from 4.12% to 4.13%. Not a big deal, but that rate is like a very large ship- it moves slowly but inexorably, and takes a long time to reverse direction.

Post from Joerg Wuttke, a partner of Partner at DGA Albright Stonebridge Group

Worrisome possibility:
„.. Foreigners own $8.5trn of government debt, a bit under a third of the total; more than half of that is held by private investors, who cannot be cajoled by diplomacy or threatened with tariffs. America must refinance $9trn of debt over the next year. If demand for Treasuries weakens, the impact will quickly feed through to the budget, which, owing to high debts and short maturities, is sensitive to interest rates.
What would Congress do then? When markets collapsed during the global financial crisis and the pandemic, it acted forcefully. But those crises required it to spend, not to impose cuts. This time it would need to take an axe to entitlements and raise taxes quickly. You need only consider the make-up of Congress and the White House to see that the markets might have to impose a lot of pain before the government could agree on what to do. As America dithered, the shock could spread from Treasuries to the rest of the financial system, bringing defaults and hedge-fund blow-ups. That is the sort of behaviour you would expect in an emerging market……“

https://linkedin.com/posts/joerg-wuttke-8a10ab8_how-a-dollar-crisis-would-unfold-activity-7318366116429398017-rEFw
Economists has a related article, How a dollar crisis would unfold. Sorry it is behind a paywall. A short excerpt from the article,

A currency is only as good as the government that backs it. The longer America’s political system fails to grapple with its deficits or flirts with chaotic or discriminatory rules, the more likely will be a once-in-a-generation upheaval that pushes the global financial system into the unknown. Wherever things settled, the greenback’s diminished role would be a tragedy for America. True, some exporters would benefit from a weaker currency. But the dollar’s primacy reduces the cost of capital for everyone, from first-time homebuyers to blue-chip firms.
Biting the hand that funds
The world would suffer because the dollar has no equal—just pale imitations. The euro is backed by a big economy, but the euro zone does not produce enough safe assets. Switzerland is safe but small. Japan is big, but has its own vast debts. Gold and cryptocurrencies lack state backing. As investors tried one asset and then another, the hunt for safety could bring about destabilising booms and busts. The dollar system is not perfect, but it provides the stable ground on which today’s globalised economy is built. When investors doubt America’s creditworthiness, those foundations are in danger of cracking.

https://economist.com/leaders/2025/04/16/how-a-dollar-crisis-would-unfold
@Old_Joe, please continue with your invaluable daily posting. The world of economic is complex and they are intertwined with many factors. To be an informed investors, it is necessary to understand these factors in order to mitigate the forthcoming risk.
@hank and @Observanr1, thank you for your contribution.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/836906/000168386325003569/f41638d1.htm
Vanguard Total Inflation-Protected Securities ETF
Vanguard Total Treasury ETF
Vanguard Government Securities Active ETF

As posted by Subu Trade, this is the eight consecutive week of bears over 50, the longest stretch ever. Didn’t occur during 2008, the Dot.com bust, Covid, or the 1990 and 2022 bear markets.

Two comments.
Volatility creates opportunities.
Injecting daily politics as a basis for investment analysis isn't a good choice.

Heightened volatility due to massive uncertainty increases the likelihood of a serious

"accident."
It's unwise to ignore the ramifications of executive branch actions which forcefully inject politics
into the business/economic realms.

Excellent post!
Investors who ignore the economic and market impacts of politics for the next 3+ years effectively ignore the extremely heightened risk of their personal financial doom. That is, IF you believe that silly little things like tariffs, Treasurys and Benjamins have any real impact on the economy or markets.
You gotta wonder if certain posters have even heard the term "fiscal policy" let alone know what it means/does.

...
I'm flooded.
...

Maybe change your underwear?
Or rent a sump pump?
Posters would need more info about all that to have any chance of helping you outta that mess.

Old_joe.
Another outrage rant about nothing from someone with TDS.
The Dollar has been fluctuating.
In the last 10 years USD/EUR has been from 0.75 to now 0.88.
Wow, Europe is more expensive for American tourists.
I'm flooded.
You should start at least 3 new threads daily with hate or maybe post on the same one, after all, it's all similar.
On the other hand you were never outraged about the highest inflation which is the most harmful thing that I have seen in decades.
Get used to the fact that Trump will be in the news every day -:)
Or maybe you should be outrage by the fact that Biden wasn't in control in the last years, his aids hide him and ran our Gov instead.

AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/16/25
BEARISH remained the top sentiment (56.9%, very high) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (17.7%, very low); bullish remained the middle sentiment (25.4%, low); Bull-Bear Spread was -31.4%* (very low). Investor concerns: Tariffs, jobs, inflation, recession, Fed, budget, debt, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (164+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+3 weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds flat, oil up, gold up sharply, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 17.61% (oversold). New trade deals remain pending. US-China trade relations worsened. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Sentiments are CONTRARIAN indicators.
*Negative since 2/5/25.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1955/thread