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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Drop Along With Oil Prices
    Yep.
    Sold off quite a bit on this disappointing day, yet again...
    OXY...I picked up recently, but could not hold gains...had hoped that this would be more sturdy given its dividend yield. No luck. APA, HES, XOM all down heavy as well.
    SAFM...I picked up fairly recently, but could not hold gains. Massive shorts seem to be winning tug-of-war here.
    SCHN...I took a beating on this one...a stubborn holding for me. Probably one of the most hated stocks out there today...the earnings call last week was so antagonistic. An aggressive BAC ML analyst basically called into question the entire business model for this 100 year old company. With raw metals at record lows, why would anyone want to by scrap? Jeffries stepped up with a hold and targets $20, citing cost reduction initiatives, continued FCF, and nice dividend, but the stock almost broke below $17 today. No admittance that tha company is buying its stock. Believe it can go lower still. Sad to say.
    Did use downgrade by CS to pick up AIG, which has been off its recent high of $55. Added again to BAC...it too off recent high of $19...today, under $17.
    HCP, OAK, AA continue to run higher. AA crushed expectations.
    So, now just five equities: BAC, AA, HCP, OAK, and AIG.
    c
  • Great Owls page not displaying
    Sorry for hassle mc.
    It's so funny. These are displayed using embedded Microsoft Online Excel sheets.
    But it seems to run faster with Chrome.
    Still, I just tried with ie11 and it came up fine...all three sheets. Took a little longer, but it worked.
    So, couple other ideas if you want to use ie. Try clearing cookies and/or upgrade to ie11.
    Hey, honestly, we thought the online Excel display was pretty cool. But, a couple folks have noted issues with it, like OldJoe. So, maybe we will go back to earlier on-line search tool and reserve the online Excel for downloading.
    Will give it a closer look.
  • MFO Ratings Through 4th Quarter
    Chip's updated Search Tools with ratings data through December 2014.
    The update shows 470 Great Owl funds, or about 6 percent of all evaluated. Of these, about 100 are also Honor Roll funds, meaning they are top quintile performers for both risk adjusted and absolute returns.
    Some notables:
    Akre Focus Instl (AKRIX)
    AMG Managers Intermediate Duration Govt (MGIDX)
    Artisan International Value Investor (ARTKX)
    Guinness Atkinson Global Innovators (IWIRX)
    Hennessy Focus Investor (HFCSX)
    Janus Triton D (JANIX)
    Pear Tree Polaris Fgn Val Sm Cap Instl (QUSIX)
    PIMCO Foreign Bond (USD-Hedged) I (PFORX)
    PIMCO Intl StksPLUS AR Strat (UsD-Hg) A (PIPAX)
    PIMCO StocksPLUS Absolute Return Instl (PSPTX)
    PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Instl (PSLDX)
    PRIMECAP Odyssey Aggressive Growth (POAGX)
    RiverPark Structural Alpha Institutional (RSAIX)
    Smead Value Investor (SMVLX)
    T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX)
    T. Rowe Price Diversified Sm Cap Growth (PRDSX)
    T. Rowe Price Global Technology (PRGTX)
    T. Rowe Price Instl Mid-Cap Equity Gr (PMEGX)
    T. Rowe Price Instl Small-Cap Stock (TRSSX)
    T. Rowe Price New Horizons (PRNHX)
    T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Stock (OTCFX)
    Tweedy Browne Global Value (TBGVX)
    Vanguard Strategic Small-Cap Equity Inv (VSTCX)
    Vanguard Struct Large-Cap Eq InstlPlus (VSLPX)
    Vanguard Wellesley Income Inv (VWINX)
    Vanguard Wellington Inv (VWELX)
    Vulcan Value Partners (VVPLX)
    Of the 1800 or so surviving funds that have been around 20 years, only about 30 are top quintile across all five evaluation periods (20, 10, 5, 3, and 1 year), yes even in 2014.
    Some of them are:
    American Century Equity Income Inv (TWEIX)
    AMG Managers Intermediate Duration Govt (MGIDX)
    Elfun Trusts (ELFNX)
    Franklin Mutual Global Discovery Z (MDISX)
    Meridian Growth Legacy (MERDX)
    PIMCO Foreign Bond (UsD-Hedged) I (PFORX)
    T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX)
    T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Stock (OTCFX)
    TCW Total Return Bond I (TGLMX)
    Tweedy Browne Global Value (TBGVX)
    Vanguard Wellesley Income Inv (VWINX)
    Vanguard Wellington Inv (VWELX)
    A few notable funds on our latest Three Alarm list...Calamos and Royce spending some time in the barrel:
    Aegis Value (AVALX)
    AMG Managers Brandywine Advs Mid Cap Gr (BWAFX)
    Artisan Small Cap Value Investor (ARTVX)
    Calamos Focus Growth A (CBCAX)
    Calamos Growth A (CVGRX)
    Calamos Opportunistic Value A (CVAAX)
    Calamos Total Return Bond A (CTRAX)
    Davis NY Venture A (NYVTX)
    Delafield Fund (DEFIX)
    Evermore Global Value A (EVGBX)
    FpA Capital (FPPTX)
    Greenspring (GRSPX)
    Hussman Strategic Growth (HSGFX)
    Janus Aspen Overseas Instl (JAIGX)
    LKCM Fixed-Income (LKFIX)
    Loomis Sayles International Bond A (LSIAX)
    MainStay Cornerstone Growth A (KLGAX)
    MainStay Growth Allocation A (MGXAX)
    Muhlenkamp (MUHLX)
    Old Westbury Fixed Income (OWFIX)
    Royce Global Value Svc (RIVFX)
    Royce Low Priced Stock Svc (RYLPX)
    Royce Micro-Cap Invmt (RYOTX)
    Royce Premier Invmt (RYPRX)
    Royce SMid-Cap Value Svc (RMVSX)
    Third Avenue International Value Instl (TAVIX)
    Thornburg International Value A (TGVAX)
    Valley Forge (VAFGX)
    Couple other interesting observations...
    Bretton Fund (BRTNX), which David last profiled in June 2013, is a Great Owl.
    As are three RiverPark funds, as seen below, all also profiled by David:
    image
    David Sherman's RiverPark Short Term High Yield Fund (RPHIX) actually holds distinction of having highest 3-year risk adjusted return of more than 8000 funds evaluated...twice the Sharpe and seven times higher Sortino and Martin than closest competitor. In a league all its own. A GO since eligible, but M* still only gives it one star for reasons discussed in last February's commentary, "Impact of Category On Fund Ratings".
    Good progress continues on our MFO Premium Search Tools site, currently in so-called beta or check-out phase. If you are interested in being a beta tester, please drop David a note. Still trying to figure out how we want to roll-out.
    If you see anything amiss in latest ratings update, will work to correct soonest. And, feedback always welcome.
    Enjoy.
    c
  • Democrats reintroduce a financial transaction tax
    Did you read the story John? You ask are the high rollers middle class retail investors? No, the story describes them as those making $1.4 million+ a year. The proposal as I read it is trying to give financial breaks back to the middle class. The problem here isn't that we trash the rich. That is a popular slogan started by the rich. If you haven't noticed, the rich are getting very much richer as the middle class deteriorates. That is a fact.
    Just in a recent post here on MFO, there was discussion about average pay being lower then the past and how that hurts the economy. Hmm, so in whose pockets are record profits going then? Put it together, it's a fact the split between the rich and middle class has grown exponentially over the last decade or two. I'd say politics and tax loop holes are totally swayed for the rich guy, not the middle class.
    I don't know if this is a good bill or not. I'm positive Republicans will kill it, only for the fact a Democrat suggested it. Killing it is also stated in the article.
    No answer here, but it always fascinates me that people who will complain that the middle class is disappearing will defend the status quo that the rich and their pocket-politicians have put in place.
  • Democrats reintroduce a financial transaction tax
    From the WaPo article; "The windfall — about $1.2 trillion over a decade — would come directly from the pockets of Wall Street “high rollers” through a new fee on financial transactions, and from the top 1 percent of earners, who would lose billions of dollars in lucrative tax breaks."
    Who are they calling "high rollers"? The middle class retail investor just trying to save up a kitty for the future? With interest rates at zero and below, the money has been going into funds and other investments in order to capture some growth.
    Of course, it's popular today to trash the rich.
  • Democrats reintroduce a financial transaction tax
    It's an entire package including tax cuts for the middle class and tax incentives for corporations to raise worker pay: all the details here at the WaPo.
  • Return Of The Stockpickers

    Correct Benchmarking performance:
    +/- Morningstar Moderate Target Risk Benchmark
    -0.16 0.30 0.53 2.70 0.38 5.03 3.54 2.61 1.43 1.71
    +/- Category (MA) Wellington
    -0.01+ 0.15 0.14 1.27 0.16 3.65 2.25 1.90 2.05 2.59
    Here Barrons: Wellington correct performance against Morningstar's moderate risk benchmark.....PLUS figures in EVERY time period
    need more go to Morningstar forget Barrons
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=VWELX&region=usa&culture=en-US
  • Return Of The Stockpickers
    They are nuts or stupid or both....Wellington holds 35% bonds and a limited # of stocks for such big $ holdings...How could they outperform S&P in 2014?
    Every wonder why guys like me and (ibartman) question most financial reporting, the readers (public) would assume that Wellington was a under performing fund....BS
    Ridiculous stuff
  • Democrats reintroduce a financial transaction tax
    Plan would include a 0.1% tax on all stock transactions.
    I'm not keen on paying 10 basis points every time I rebalance or contribute funds. I don't feel like I'm a "Wall Street big shot". This tax would likely continue forever, and increase over time (as most taxes do).
    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000345938
  • Return Of The Stockpickers
    http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/ON-BH910_MFQCov_G_20150109220517.jpg
    Check out link above. It refers to image/table from the Barron's article.
    Anyone other than me find the benchmarking of [Vanguard Wellington] or [Amer Funds Balanced] against the S&P 500 (!) peculiar?
  • Golly Gee....sure am tempted to throw more money at U.S. real estate funds
    I'm not buying as I think REITs are over (or at least richly) valued here. If you want to start a position, I'd really average in over a longer period. Energy is certainly a cheaper option, but in terms of buying what has done well, that is real estate. One of my largest positions is a REIT but I wouldn't add to it and I maybe would have even turned off DRIP for the latest dividend if I'd thought about it in time.
    I have added to Howard Hughes (HHC), but that isn't technically a REIT and has been hit due to exposure to energy. Given the fairly smallish float and volatility, not something I'd recommend to anyone remotely conservative.
    It's not that I'm bearish on REITs, mind you - the ones I own are long-term holdings and I'm happy with them. I also strongly believe in real assets. It's just that they had a significant run last year.
    Keep in mind REITs did not have a great 2013. Wasn't that the year of taper tantrum? I worry a tad that that may happen again (and it may be a buying opportunity as that period was.)
  • Golly Gee....sure am tempted to throw more money at U.S. real estate funds
    Over the weekend I compiled a few funds that I hope will be complimentary to my equity holdings. Real Estate and commodities were on my list along with a variety of bond funds (LT / ST treasuries, TIPS, and Multi-sector funds). I also wanted to consider some equity sector funds and here I'm considering Utilities, Industrials, Japan, India, and Transportation to perform well this year.
    With this, here's are some choices that have outperformed in there respective category over 1,3 and 5 years. They have relatively low ERs and are often available with no transaction fees.
    RE - RRREX,
    Utilities - GASFX, TOLSX, GLFOX
    Commodities - SKSRX, PCRDX
    Income - PONDX, FAGIX
    TIPS - TIPSX
    Japan - HJPNX
    India - MINDX
    Industrials - FSRFX
    LT Treasuries - WHOSX
    ST Treasuries - FMEQX
  • Why Investors Are Pouring Billions Into Stock Index Funds
    FUN/PROFITABLE stock story: anyone heard of Nathan's Hot Dogs, French Fries and mustard?
    Winner #2: Long idea on NATH (Nathan's Famous) by GFP Investments, published March 8, 2013. Return to date: +113%
  • Golly Gee....sure am tempted to throw more money at U.S. real estate funds
    'Course, 2013 wasn't great, but 2014 was and continues into 2015..........unless there will be another rotation of 1 year great, next year sell......... :)
    New money would be in the form of one big bite to the tune of at least 5% of our portfolio total.
    Have not run M*, but a best guess is that we have about 2% of the portfolio in R.E. from mixes within existing equity funds; and that we currently hold a direct 5% position in R.E. via FRIFX. The consideration to add to this area is for more exposure that is not bond related, as is, with about 50% of FRIFX.
    Are ya buying or selling the U.S. real estate area???
    M* real estate funds list
    Lastly, perhaps should just sell about 1/2 of the portfolio and place into a bond eft and wait to dive face first into an energy etf after the flooding is finished....... :)
    Thanks and take care,
    Catch
  • Just for the heck-of-it.....PTTRX vs JUCIX...a work in progress...
    @catch22, Exactly. There are many fine bond funds out there. I would not have invested in Gross's Total Bond because of the size to begin with, but the story of the millions leaving Pimco to follow Bill to Janus is confounding. They would have been better to stay at Pimco.
    In the fullness of time we will know the end story.
    Additional: there is a story over on WSJ Moneybeat that talks about this same issue. The author questions the response of the Janus chairman regarding where the money came from. Some alarm bells going off and unfortunately at a place where they have rung before. I would post the link but you have to be a subscriber. It is here. http://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-MBB-31685?ref=/blogs/moneybeat
  • Great Owls page not displaying
    Hi mcmarasco.
    I noticed that our spreadsheet had scrolled off-center and I corrected it. Hopefully, that was causing the issue you reported (thank you!).
    It comes up for me now...screenshot of top view:
    image
    You should also see one for Asset Allocation funds and another for Equity funds, just scroll down the page.
    You can download all three sheets in one Excel worksheet to your computer, if you prefer.
    Great Owl, Three Alarm, and Dashboard search tools have all be updated with fund performance through December 2014. The updated ratings should be uploaded to MultiSearch and Risk Profile search tools shortly.
    We will post an announcement when complete.
    c
  • Nuveen’s 21% Return Leads 2014’s High-Yield Frenzy: Muni Credit
    HY Muni trend is continuing since the beginning of this year. Over 1 billion flow last week into national muni.