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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @WABAC Thanks for the link, I enjoyed the read.
    @sma3 I'll contribute this tid bit of info. In 1908 there were 253 active auto manufacturers in the USA.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    @Junkster,
    Yes, the dividend was 14.4 cents.
    Thanks for catching my error. I crossed off the erroneous info in my last post so others are not mislead. My bad for not remembering that EMPIX has switched to monthly dividends. Obviously, I do not own it and would like to own it if I had access to it.
    CBYYX pays annual distribution. SHRIX pays quarterly distribution. and EMPIX pays monthly.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    For the day, CBYYX +0.7%, SHRIX +0.66%, EMPIX - 0.77%. That is a big divergence between CBYYX and EMPIX. With today's divergence, EMPIX fell behind CBYYX by 0.8% in Milton effect. I hope CBYYX is not going to give back today's gain on Monday.
    Attention to detail. EMPIX down 8 cents -0.77%. You did not take into account that EMPIX paid its monthly dividend today. The second to last Friday of the month. So if the dividend was close to last month September 11 cents+ or July 12 cents+ it was up today. But if like August 4 cents +, then down for today.
    Edit - Looks like after the dividend EMPIX was up 6 cents. So the dividend must have been around 14 cents.
  • ⇒ All Things Boeing ... Machinist Union Accepts Latest Boeing Contract Offer
    Seems like overlapping regulatory bodies with neither of them being held accountable for the ultimate outcome. When parents bicker, kids take advantage, which is what BA is doing. May be the bigger problem is our non-functioning / non-effective Government and not Boeing.
    Six years after those crashes, I do not see any real progress. Break it up. It has a rotten culture and it needs to start as a different company.
    Disclosure: I own BA.
    BTW, RTX had some product problems in the past 12 months and it fixed the issues enough that its stock recovered very well. If a company has a good culture, it can recover well from mistakes.
    I agree with Old Joe about ascribing the issue to the supplier and not to BA in that one instance. Thanks to him for the detailed and objective reporting.
  • ⇒ All Things Boeing ... Machinist Union Accepts Latest Boeing Contract Offer
    @Crash- Yes, Boeing bought (re-acquired) Spirit in July.
    The FAA has been under significant regulatory capture for many years, much to the continuing irritation of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), who are the U.S. primary investigators of aircraft accidents. Over the years there have been quite a number of situations where the NTSB has issued recommendations after an investigation, only to have those recommendations watered down or even ignored by the FAA.
    It has not been uncommon for the FAA to issue regulatory safety measures only after being forced to by critical publicity after repeated problems of a particular type, and well after prior NTSB recommendations on the problem.
    Have you ever seen the size of the FAA building in D.C.? It's hard to understand what all those people are doing if they "don't have enough resources".
    image
  • The Great Government Transfer-mation
    There is always makers and takers in personal life and at society level. Many of those guys / States making noise about the huge deficits, immigrants, etc. are not necessarily worried about the future of the country (they already think they are a different country) but worried about their freebies decreasing / stopping - it is about keeping their gravy train secure.
    It is easier to work / help with / cure capabilities but you can not cure a sense of entitlement.
    For the fiscal year ended Sept 30, federal Govt ran a deficit of $1.98T ($900B of which was net interest expense). The deficit was the third largest after 2020 and 2021.
    We need to get the deficits (in excess of inflation) under control.
  • ⇒ All Things Boeing ... Machinist Union Accepts Latest Boeing Contract Offer
    Here are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said on Friday it will open a three-month review of Boeing’s compliance with safety regulations, continuing the agency’s closer oversight of the company since a panel blew off a Boeing jetliner during an Alaska Airlines flight in January.
    The FAA said its review will examine key areas of safety processes at Boeing to make sure that they “result in timely, accurate safety-related information for FAA use”.
    An FAA spokesperson said the review was not triggered by any particular event or concern but rather is part of the FAA’s oversight of safety culture at the huge aircraft maker.
    Boeing did not comment immediately on the new review.
    The FAA administrator, Mike Whitaker, has ordered special audits of Boeing and other steps to examine the safety culture at the company since a panel called a door plug blew off a 737 Max during the Alaska Airlines flight.
    However, the inspector general of the transportation department, the FAA’s parent agency, said last week that weaknesses in FAA oversight are limiting its ability to find and fix problems at Boeing.
    The auditor said the FAA has failed to ensure that Boeing and its suppliers make parts that meet engineering and design requirements and to investigate claims that Boeing puts improper pressure on employees who are authorized to conduct safety inspections. The FAA has closed only 14 of 34 reports of undue pressure, with the others remaining open for more than a year on average, according to the report.
    Last month, the National Transportation Safety Board issued an “urgent” recommendation to the FAA about a problem that surfaced in February with rudders that pilots use to steer certain Boeing 737s after landing. Two weeks later, the FAA later issued a safety alert to airlines about the matter.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Things that look revolutionary can be very hard to invest in. Many people must have looked at the Wright Bros success and figured airplanes would be a great way to make money. I an sure people made money in Boeing, GE etc, but not in airlines unless you buy them at the right time. Same thing with car companies. How many were there in 1910?
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Today seemed like a good day to sell THOPX and WCPNX. That leaves MNHAX as my longest duration bond fund. It has been fairly steady so far. I'll be keeping an eye on it.

    Here is the Yahoo print
    of the Bloomberg story mentioned by @BaluBalu above.
    keep an eye out for securitized public issuances of private loans as spreads in private loans become unattractive and demand dries up in private markets. You can always find suckers in public markets. I am guessing we have not seen all the lives of this cat yet.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Derf. Dinky linky.
    The reserve is being refilled. And the US is now a net exporter of oil, and the largest producer of oil in the world.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @WABAC ". I keep reading that we're on the verge of an oil glut" Any news on the refilling of national oil storage ? Seems it was down to 15-20 % not to long ago.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Today seemed like a good day to sell THOPX and WCPNX. That leaves MNHAX as my longest duration bond fund. It has been fairly steady so far. I'll be keeping an eye on it.

    Here is the Yahoo print
    of the Bloomberg story mentioned by @BaluBalu above.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I don't know about nukes, but green-hydrogen fuel cells are going to replace batteries sooner than we think.

    At a campaign pit stop, DJT gave his pronouncement against hydrogen. As is customary for him, he took the crowd along with him in mocking hydrogen fuel cell powered cars as bombs on wheels. So, you got a big hurdle for hydrogen technology in the US. May be Musk is in DJT ears on this but it is a no go.
    I don't think Trump reads the business section. I keep reading that we're on the verge of an oil glut and he wants the oil companies to keep drilling while they are putting money into not-so-green hydrogen or converting refineries to producing bio-diesel.
    Trump didn't like electric vehicles either. I think Musk will be able to take care of that little problem with cash. At one time Musk thought fuel cells were stupid. Times have changed.
    When it comes to our love affair with vehicles, hydrogen will be the easier switch in the long run because it more nearly matches our experience of filling up the tank, and going. Who wants to wait around for a vehicle to charge up? The trucking industry won't, for one.
    BTW. I am not encouraging anyone to invest in any of this stuff. There's many a slip between cup and lip.
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    At the time I viewed USAGX as a break-glass investment, as in to trigger the alarm, break the glass. In 2011RMDs were not concretely on my mind. It was too small a position to begin with, and it has never compounded well.
    If it gets to the price I paid in 2012, when I figured it couldn't go much lower, I'll be a happy camper. But it better get there soon.
    Speaking of things I bought at their peak, I think I'll be luckier with XBI (bio-tech) than I have been with miners.
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    So, either gold-bullion is overvalued now, or gold-miners are undervalued. I am betting on the latter. Watch $XAU around 164 bow; its 2010-11 peak was 225+.
    @yogibearbull, which ETFs do you suggest I look at for gold-miners?
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    2011 was a long time ago.
    Post-GFC, gold rallied hard and both gold and gold-miners peaked in 2011. Yep, people who bought then are still looking to get even.
    Then both were trashed.
    For years, it looked as if 2,000-2,100 was a ceiling for gold, but it broke out of that in March 2024. Factors contributing to the gold rally include Middle East tensions, Russia-Ukraine war, global moves away from dollar due to aggressive US dollar-diplomacy, central bank gold purchases, rapidly rising US debt, etc.
    But as gold has rallied to new highs, gold-miners are still priced as if gold was around 2,000 - check 2010-11, 2020 and 2022.
    So, either gold-bullion is overvalued now, or gold-miners are undervalued. I am betting on the latter. Watch $XAU around 164 bow; its 2010-11 peak was 225+.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Berkshire sold its BYD stake down to 5% from more than 20%, after holding it since 2008 (bought initially for approx $1 a share). That made me think may be battery technology does not have as much a future as is needed for non-nuclear renewable energy or may be he sold because he thought as a Chinese company, it could face headwinds in the global markets. OR both reasons. Obviously, I do not take his official reasoning on its face value. He bought and sold TSM quickly on questionable US-China relations, which I understood.
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    While gold is at new highs, gold-miners have lot of catching up to do.
    I'll say.
    I'm finally in the green with USAGX for the first time since I bought it in August 2011. I don't plan to stick around much longer. I'm watching GDX like a hawk.